Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union: implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Macmillan [u.a.]
1994
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 246 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0333606345 0312120141 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804124019595673600 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables, Figures and Maps viil
Acknowledgements xu
Abbreviations xnl
Fuel Conversion Rates X1V
Summary of Major Conclusions
Introduction
1 Alternative Scenarios for the FSU Reform Process 19
1 Q
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Scenario 1: radical market reforms 20
1.3 Scenario 2: gradual market reforms 25
1.4 Scenario 3: extended period of reform impasse 29
1.5 Scenario 4: reform impasse and internal war 33
2 Production Constraints and Prospects 35
2.1 Physical technological constraints 35
2.1.1 Crude oil 36 t
2.1.2 Natural gas J
2.1.3 Coal :*
2.1.4 Western technology and its expected impact 6U
2.2 The economics of fuel supply in the FSU ol
2.2.1 Marginal costs and the range of uncertainty 63
2.2.2 Crude oil * ,
2.2.3 Natural gas _ .
2.2.4 Coal
2.2.5 Geographic breakdown of fuel production ^i
2.3 Institutional and socio political issues in energy
c 104
sector reform
2.3.1 The institutional structure of fuel production m
1992 10
2.3.2 Institutional arrangements in the Russian fuel
industries
v
vi Contents
2.3.3 Effects of Intra FSU Political Tensions 107
2.3.4 Socio economic constraints to fuel output in
Scenario 1 109
Appendix 2.1: Assessing the distribution and
recoverability of bypassed oil 112
Appendix 2.2: Three methods to compute required
investment in the FSU s oil industry
between 1993 and 2000 116
Appendix 2.3: Derivation of investment costs for a gas
export pipeline. 118
3 Prospects for FSU Energy Consumption 120
3.1 Introduction 120
3.2 Energy use patterns in the FSU 121
3.2.1 Trends in energy efficiency 123
3.2.2 Behavioural factors behind inefficient energy use
and the magnitude of systemic wastage 133
3.3 Structure of energy prices at the beginning of market
reforms 137
3.3.1 State controlled prices 137
3.3.2 Commodity exchange prices 141
3.3.3 Contract prices 142
3.3.4 Barter prices 143
3.3.5 Interrepublican trade prices 143
3.3.6 Magnitude of distortions in current energy prices 144
3.3.7 Energy price outlook for the near future 148
3.4 Market reforms and future patterns of energy
consumption 149
3.4.1 Methodology and main underlying assumptions
for consumption projections 149
3.4.2 Projected trends in energy consumption under
alternative scenarios 155
4 FSU Energy Exports, International Markets and Eastern
Europe 168
4.1 Introduction 168
4.2 The significance of the FSU as energy exporter prior
to the reforms 168
4.3 Projections of energy exports from the FSU 171
Contents vii
4.4 FSU export supply and world energy markets 187
4.4.1 International energy market reactions to changes
in supply 189
4.4.2 The price impact of shifting FSU exports 190
4.5 Implications for Eastern Europe 205
4.5.1 Introduction 205
4.5.2 The impact of FSU export shortfalls 206
4.5.3 Conclusions 219
Notes and References 220
Bibliography 229
Index 236
List of Tables, Figures and
Maps
Tables
A FSU energy: projections of production, consumption
and exports under alternative scenarios 7
B Energy in Russia: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 8
C Projected export revenue from fossil fuel sales under
alternative scenarios 12
1.1 Anticipated impact on the energy sector of long term
direction of policy and systemic change assumed in
Scenarios 1 3 34
2.1 Proven plus probable reserves of oil in the FSU and
republics in 1991 38
2.2 Proven plus probable oil reserves of Russia 39
2.3 Proven plus probable oil reserves of West Siberia 40
2.4 Reserves in producing oil fields in West Siberia and per
cent of initial reserves withdrawn, 1990 41
2.5 Oil production according to well yields, percentage of
reserves produced, and dynamics of output, Russia and
West Siberia 43
2.6 Natural gas reserves in the FSU and republics in 1988 56
2.7 FSU crude oil: prices, extraction costs and transport
costs to borders or major consumption centres 73
2.8 FSU natural gas: prices, extraction costs and transport
costs to borders or major consuming centres 77
2.9 Pipe requirement of the FSU gas industry 83
2.10 FSU natural gas: potential exports and estimated
investment requirements 86
2.11 Fuel production in the FSU, 1989 2005 93
2.12 Fuel production in Russia, 1989 2005 94
2.13 Oil production in Russia, 1989 2005 95
2.14 Natural gas production in Russia, 1989 2005 96
2.15 Coal production in Russia, 1989 2005 97
2.16 Fuel production in Ukraine, 1989 2005 99
viii
List of Tables, Figures and Maps ix
2.17 Fuel production in Kazakhstan, 1989 2005 100
2.18 Fuel production in Central Asia, 1989 2005 103
3.1 Sectoral distribution of final energy consumption in the
FSU, the US and OECD Europe. 128
3.2 End use energy intensity by sector in the FSU, the US,
Japan and Germany in 1980 and 1988 131
3.3 Technological and vintage characteristics of equipment
in the former USSR 132
3.4 Magnitude of energy savings potential in the FSU by
sector, 1990 136
3.5 Wholesale energy prices in Russia, June 1992 138
3.6 State set retail prices of energy in Russia, June 1992 140
3.7 Volume of energy products traded on the Russian
commodity exchanges 142
3.8 Degree of distortion in selected Russian wholesale
energy prices, June 1992 145
3.9 Degree of distortion in selected retail energy prices in
Russia, June 1992 147
3.10 Fuel consumption in the FSU, 1989 2005. 158
3.11 Fuel consumption in Russia, 1989 2005. 158
3.12 Fuel consumption in Ukraine, 1989 2005. 159
3.13 Fuel consumption in Kazakhstan, 1989 2005 159
3.14 Fuel consumption in Central Asia, 1989 2005 160
3.15 Fuel consumption in Transcaucasia, 1989 2005 160
4.1 Significance of net FSU exports in world fuel markets in
1989 169
4.2 Exports (gross) of fuels from leading supplying
countries in 1989 169
4.3 The significance of imports from the FSU in the West
European fossil fuels markets in 1989 170
4.4 FSU net exports of fossil fuels 171
4.5 FSU energy: projections of production, consumption
and exports under alternative scenarios 172
4.6 FSU: projected export revenue from fossil fuel sales
under alternative scenarios. 176
4.7 Energy in Russia: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 178
4.8 Russia: projected export revenue from fossil fuel sales
under alternative scenarios 180
4.9 Energy in Kazakhstan: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 182
x List of Tables, Figures and Maps
4.10 Energy in Central Asia: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 183
4.11 Energy in Ukraine: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 184
4.12 Oil in the FSU: exportable surpluses by major republic
or republican group, under alternative scenarios 185
4.13 Gas in the FSU: exportable surpluses by major republic
or republican group, under alternative scenarios 185
4.14 Coal in the FSU: exportable surpluses by major republic
or republican group, under alternative scenarios 186
4.15 FSU fuel export forecasts: scenario results compared
with projected 1980 89 trends. 188
4.16 Measuring the international price impact of variations
in the FSU s coal export performance 193
4.17 Measuring the international price impact of variations
in the FSU s oil export performance 195
4.18 Measuring the impact on European price levels of
variations in the FSU s natural gas export performance 200
4.19 Significance of imports from the FSU in the
East European energy markets in 1989 208
4.20 Eastern Europe: an assessment of the economic impact
of higher prices for fuels imported from the FSU 211
4.21 FSU gas export supply cost in the year 2000 215
4.22 Costs of alternative sources of gas to Eastern Europe 216
4.23 Energy intensities in East and West Europe in 1989 218
Figures
A FSU oil and gas: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 9
B Russian oil and gas: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 10
1.1 Growth Profiles of FSU GDP under Scenarios 1 3 20
2.1 Percentage of active reserves extracted in producing
fields, Russia and West Siberia 44
2.2 Production in Russia according to well yield 49
2.3 Production in West Siberia according to well yield 49
2.4 Sources of oil production for Scenario 2 50
2.5 West Siberia: extraction levels and marginal costs 68
2.6 Marginal cost of oil in Russia with a 10 per cent
discount rate (1993 2000) 69
List of Tables, Figures and Maps xi
2.7 Selected coal producers by volume and cost 89
2.8 Institutional structure of the oil industry of the Russian
Federation, 1992 108
3.1 Energy consumption in the FSU, 1971 91 122
3.2 Total primary energy consumption in the FSU and the
OECD 123
3.3 Energy intensity of GDP in the FSU and the OECD 124
3.4 Energy intensity in the FSU 125
3.5 Primary energy consumption per capita 126
3.6 The FSU: energy intensity of end use sectors 129
3.7 The FSU: projected energy use in Scenarios 1 3 156
3.8 FSU natural gas consumption: magnitude of price effect
under Scenarios 1 2 163
3.9 The FSU: fuel shares in total energy consumption 164
3.10 The FSU: energy efficiency paths under Scenarios 1 3 167
4.1 FSU oil and gas: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 173
4.2 Russian oil and gas: projections of production,
consumption and exports under alternative scenarios 179
4.3 Fuel exports from the FSU 187
4.4 Initial price adjustment to a fall in FSU supply 192
4.5 Gas import prices 198
4.6 Fossil fuels in Eastern Europe in 1989: shares of gross
availability by type and source 210
Maps
2.1 Hydrocarbon basins of the FSU 37
2.2 The West Siberian oil and gas province with subregions 45
2.3 Oilfields of the Middle Ob petroleum region (after
Maksimov) 46
2.4 Natural gas in West Siberia: deposits of the Nadym Pur
gas region 57
2.5 Main gas pipelines and volumes transmitted 82
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Dienes, Leslie Dobozi, István ca. 18.Jh Radetzki, Marian |
| author_GND | (DE-588)118880071 |
| author_facet | Dienes, Leslie Dobozi, István ca. 18.Jh Radetzki, Marian |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Dienes, Leslie |
| author_variant | l d ld i d id m r mr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV009674269 |
| classification_rvk | QG 480 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)231620574 (DE-599)BVBBV009674269 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| era | Prognose 1989-2005 gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose 1989-2005 |
| format | Book |
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| genre | 1\p (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Konferenzschrift |
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| id | DE-604.BV009674269 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:39:01Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0333606345 0312120141 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-006398233 |
| oclc_num | 231620574 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-739 DE-12 DE-703 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-739 DE-12 DE-703 DE-188 |
| physical | XIV, 246 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
| publishDateSort | 1994 |
| publisher | Macmillan [u.a.] |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Dienes, Leslie Verfasser aut Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets Leslie Dienes ; Istvan Dobozi ; Marian Radetzki 1. publ. Basingstoke [u.a.] Macmillan [u.a.] 1994 XIV, 246 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose 1989-2005 gnd rswk-swf Energiepolitik (DE-588)4014715-0 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd rswk-swf Energiewirtschaft (DE-588)4014743-5 gnd rswk-swf Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 gnd rswk-swf Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 b Energiepolitik (DE-588)4014715-0 s Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 s DE-604 Energiewirtschaft (DE-588)4014743-5 s Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 g Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 s Prognose 1989-2005 z Dobozi, István ca. 18.Jh. Verfasser (DE-588)118880071 aut Radetzki, Marian Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006398233&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Dienes, Leslie Dobozi, István ca. 18.Jh Radetzki, Marian Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd Energiepolitik (DE-588)4014715-0 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Energiewirtschaft (DE-588)4014743-5 gnd Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)2128486-6 (DE-588)4014715-0 (DE-588)4066512-4 (DE-588)4014743-5 (DE-588)4328855-8 (DE-588)4077548-3 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets |
| title_auth | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets |
| title_exact_search | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets |
| title_full | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets Leslie Dienes ; Istvan Dobozi ; Marian Radetzki |
| title_fullStr | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets Leslie Dienes ; Istvan Dobozi ; Marian Radetzki |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets Leslie Dienes ; Istvan Dobozi ; Marian Radetzki |
| title_short | Energy and economic reform in the former Soviet Union |
| title_sort | energy and economic reform in the former soviet union implications for production consumption and exports and for the international energy markets |
| title_sub | implications for production, consumption and exports, and for the international energy markets |
| topic | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd Energiepolitik (DE-588)4014715-0 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Energiewirtschaft (DE-588)4014743-5 gnd Nachfolgestaaten (DE-588)4328855-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten Energiepolitik Wirtschaftsreform Energiewirtschaft Nachfolgestaaten Sowjetunion Konferenzschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006398233&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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