AIDS epidemiology: a quantitative approach
The AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York u.a.
Oxford Univ. Press
1994
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Monographs in epidemiology and biostatistics
22 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | The AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to estimate the magnitude and future course of the epidemic In addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretations of survey data on HIV prevalence and incidence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of the material in this book - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply. an evaluation of survey approaches and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence - has not been previously published |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 354 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0195076419 |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Monographs in epidemiology and biostatistics |v 22 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a The AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to estimate the magnitude and future course of the epidemic | |
| 520 | |a In addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment | ||
| 520 | |a These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretations of survey data on HIV prevalence and incidence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of the material in this book - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply. an evaluation of survey approaches and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence - has not been previously published | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome |x epidemiology | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804123870598266880 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
1. INTRODUCTION, 3
1.1 Brief History, 3
1.2 HIV Virus and Its Clinical Effects, 5
1.3 Measuring the Epidemic, 12
1.4 Worldwide Scope of the Epidemic, 16
2. RISK FACTORS FOR INFECTION AND THE
PROBABILITY OF HIV TRANSMISSION, 19
2.1 Introduction, 19
2.2 Studies of AIDS Patients, 20
2.3 Case Control and Cohort Studies
to Identify Risk Factors, 23
2.4 Risks from Point Exposures, 32
2.5 Sexual Transmission and Partner Studies, 36
3. SURVEYS TO DETERMINE SEROPREVALENCE AND
SEROINCIDENCE, 51
3.1 Introduction, 51
3.2 Estimating Seroprevalence Rates from Representative
(Probability Based) Samples, 54
3.3 Surveys of Selected Subpopulations, 69
3.4 Estimating National Seroprevalence from Surveys
of Selected Subpopulations, 72
3.5 Estimating HIV Incidence from Survey Data, 75
4. THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION, 82
4.1 Introduction and Historical Overview, 82
4.2 Mathematical Models for the Incubation Period
Distribution, 84
xiv Contents
4.3 Retrospective Data on AIDS Cases, 87
4.4 Prevalent Cohort Studies, 94
4.5 Studies with Doubly Censored and Interval Censored Data, 96
4.6 Deconvolution Methods (Back Calculating the Incubation
Distribution), 104
4.7 Duration of the Pre Antibody Phase, 107
4.8 Synthesis of Knowledge of
the Incubation Period Distribution, 109
5. COFACTORS AND MARKERS, 113
5.1 Introduction, 113
5.2 Cofactors and Doubly Censored Data, 116
5.3 Cofactors and Prevalent Cohort Studies, 121
5.4 Cofactors and Retrospective Studies of Cases, 126
5.5 Markers as Prognostic Factors, 128
5.6 The Marker Trajectory, 133
5.7 Other Uses of Markers, 141
5.8 Variability of Markers, 143
5.9 Synthesis of Knowledge of Cofactors and Markers, 144
6. SCREENING AND ACCURACY OF TESTS FOR HIV, 147
6.1 Introduction, 147
6.2 Sensitivity, Specificity, and Related Measures of Accuracy
for Diagnostic Tests, 148
6.3 Screening Applications and Positive Predictive Value, 158
6.4 Safety of the Blood Supply, 161
6.5 Assays for Live Virus, for HIV Antigen, and for HIV
Genome, 168
7. STATISTICAL ISSUES IN SURVEILLANCE OF AIDS
INCIDENCE, 170
7.1 Introduction, 170
7.2 AIDS Incidence Data, 170
7.3 Statistical Analysis of Reporting Delays, 171
7.4 Underreporting of AIDS Cases, 180
7.5 Changes in the Surveillance Definition, 181
7.6 Empirical Extrapolation of AIDS Incidence, 184
8. BACK CALCULATION, 189
8.1 Introduction, 189
8.2 Deterministic Deconvolution, 192
Contents xv
8.3 Statistical Deconvolution, 195
8.4 Uncertainty in Back Calculation, 206
8.5 Back Calculation for Investigating Hypotheses About
the Infection Rate, 215
8.6 Generalized Back Calculation: Extension to Account for
Nonstationary Incubation Distributions, 217
8.7 Application to the U.S. AIDS Epidemic, 222
8.8 Technical Notes, 226
9. EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION MODELS, 231
9.1 Introduction, 231
9.2 A Closed Two Compartment Model, 234
9.3 Generalizations of the Closed Two Compartment Model, 241
9.4 Heterogeneous Subgroups and the Importance
of Mixing Patterns, 245
9.5 Evaluating Prevention Strategies, 250
9.6 Stochastic Epidemic Models, 253
9.7 Comparing Parameters in Epidemic Models with Empirical
Estimates of Doubling Times and
HIV Prevalence Ratios, 254
9.8 Discussion, 259
10. SYNTHESIZING DATA SOURCES AND METHODS FOR
ASSESSING THE SCOPE OF THE EPIDEMIC, 261
10.1 Introduction, 261
10.2 Combining Data and Methods, 262
10.3 Forecasting in Developing Countries, 267
10.4 Forecasting Pediatric AIDS, 271
10.5 Forecasting for Small Areas, 278
11. DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING NEW THERAPIES AND
VACCINES, 283
11.1 Introduction, 283
11.2 History of the Development of AZT, 283
11.3 Approaches to Therapy Based on the Pathophysiology
of HIV Disease, 289
11.4 Observational Studies, 291
11.5 Special Problems and Design Issues in Clinical Trials
for HIV Disease, 296
11.6 Vaccine Trials, 306
References, 317
Index, 343
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| spelling | Brookmeyer, Ron Verfasser aut AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach Ron Brookmeyer ; Mitchell H. Gail New York u.a. Oxford Univ. Press 1994 XV, 354 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Monographs in epidemiology and biostatistics 22 The AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to estimate the magnitude and future course of the epidemic In addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretations of survey data on HIV prevalence and incidence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of the material in this book - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply. an evaluation of survey approaches and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence - has not been previously published AIDS gtt Biométrie Epidemiologie gtt Sida - Épidémiologie Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques AIDS (Disease) Epidemiology Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome epidemiology Biometry Epidemiologic Methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Aids (DE-588)4112470-4 gnd rswk-swf Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd rswk-swf Epidemiologie (DE-588)4015016-1 gnd rswk-swf Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf Aids (DE-588)4112470-4 s Epidemiologie (DE-588)4015016-1 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 s DE-604 Gail, Mitchell H. Verfasser aut Monographs in epidemiology and biostatistics 22 (DE-604)BV000004952 22 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006295090&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Brookmeyer, Ron Gail, Mitchell H. AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach Monographs in epidemiology and biostatistics AIDS gtt Biométrie Epidemiologie gtt Sida - Épidémiologie Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques AIDS (Disease) Epidemiology Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome epidemiology Biometry Epidemiologic Methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Aids (DE-588)4112470-4 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Epidemiologie (DE-588)4015016-1 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4112470-4 (DE-588)4038971-6 (DE-588)4015016-1 (DE-588)4056995-0 |
| title | AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach |
| title_auth | AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach |
| title_exact_search | AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach |
| title_full | AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach Ron Brookmeyer ; Mitchell H. Gail |
| title_fullStr | AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach Ron Brookmeyer ; Mitchell H. Gail |
| title_full_unstemmed | AIDS epidemiology a quantitative approach Ron Brookmeyer ; Mitchell H. Gail |
| title_short | AIDS epidemiology |
| title_sort | aids epidemiology a quantitative approach |
| title_sub | a quantitative approach |
| topic | AIDS gtt Biométrie Epidemiologie gtt Sida - Épidémiologie Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques AIDS (Disease) Epidemiology Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome epidemiology Biometry Epidemiologic Methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Aids (DE-588)4112470-4 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Epidemiologie (DE-588)4015016-1 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | AIDS Biométrie Epidemiologie Sida - Épidémiologie Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques AIDS (Disease) Epidemiology Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome epidemiology Biometry Epidemiologic Methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Aids Methode Statistik |
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