Human capital decay and persistence: a simulation approach to German unemployment
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main
Campus-Verl. u.a.
1994
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Studies in labor economics
2 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 255 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3593350424 0813322391 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Human capital decay and persistence |b a simulation approach to German unemployment |c Martin Mühleisen |
| 264 | 1 | |a Frankfurt am Main |b Campus-Verl. u.a. |c 1994 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Studies in labor economics |v 2 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables 9
List of Figures 11
Acknowlegments 13
Introduction 15
Outline of Chapters 17
I. Theoretical Explanations of Persistent Unemployment 21
1.1. Basic Facts about Unemployment in West Germany 22
A Brief Look at Time Series 24
The Structure of Unemployment 26
The Increasing Burden of Long Term Unemployment 29
1.2. The Inflation Unemployment Relation 33
A Natural Rate of Unemployment 33
Unemployment and Constant Inflation 35
NAIRU Estimates for Germany 39
1.3. Hysteresis and Channels of Persistence 45
Four Papers on Hysteresis 46
How Shall One Deal with Hysteresis? 51
Channels of Persistence 53
5
1.4. Long Term Unemployment and the Human Capital
Approach 59
Depreciation of Human Capital 59
Long Term Unemployment and Persistence 63
Empirical Evidence 67
1.5. Summary: Persistence and Policy Implications 70
II. Micro Econometric Analyses of German
Unemployment 74
II. 1. Theoretical Aspects of the Analysis of Unemployment
Histories 76
Micro Economic Models: the Job Search Approach 77
Individual Characteristics and Unemployment 82
Data on Unemployment Histories 86
11.2. Evidence on Driving Forces Behind Individual
Unemployment 89
The Concept of State Dependence 90
Duration Analysis 94
Discrete Transition Models 101
The Influence of Covariates 106
11.3. The Socio Economic Panel: A Suitable Data Set? 109
The German SOEP: Fundamentals and Selection Rule 110
Unemployment Data 115
Demographic and Other Socio Economic
Characteristics 122
Wages and Other Income 128
11.4. Summary: An Estimation Outline 131
6
III. The Concept of Simulation Estimation 133
III. 1. The Basic Problem 134
Multi Dimensional Integrals 135
Introducing the Normal Distribution 139
111.2. The Concept of Monte Carlo Integration 142
Discrete Methods of Approximating Multi
Dimensional Integrals 143
Smooth Simulators 146
Comparing NIS and GHK 151
111.3. The Use of Simulators in Maximum Likelihood
Procedures 157
Replacing Likelihoods: SML and MSS 158
MSM and the Keane Approach 160
Practical Aspects of the SML/GHK Estimator 166
Panel Estimators 171
111.4. Summary: The Case for Simulation Estimation 173
IV. Simulation Estimation of Persistence Effects in
Individual Unemployment 175
IV. 1. Repeated Choice Between Discrete Alternatives 176
A Model of Transitions Between States of
Employment and Unemployment 177
An Econometric Specification 180
Correcting for Unobserved Heterogeneity and
Initial Conditions 182
Choice Based Sampling 185
7
IV.2. State Dependence Effects in Quarterly Unemployment
Histories 187
Quarterly Labour Market Histories 188
Estimation Results for State Dependence 194
Other Income, Benefits, and the Reservation Wage 200
The Decline in Employment Probabilities 207
IV.3. Long Term Unemployment and Human Capital Decay 212
Semi Annual and Annual Data 214
Estimation Results for Semi Annual Data 215
Estimation Results for Annual Data 223
Quantitative Evaluation of Human Capital Decay
During Unemployment 226
IV.4. Summary: How Can Persistence Be Explained? 234
V. Conclusion 237
Literature 244
8
List of Tables
1.1 OECD Standardized Unemployment Rates 1960 1989 27
1.2 NAIRU Estimates for the Federal Republic of Germany
1960 1988 40
II. 1 Realisations of Independent Trials Bernoulli Models
with Variable Mean 92
II.2 Sample Units of SOEP (1984) 110
H.3 Average Duration of Unemployment Spells 117
11.4 Group Specific Sample Sizes and Unemployment Rates 118
11.5 Consistency of Unemployment Data and Benefits 120
II 6 Group Specific Demographic and Labour Market
Characteristics 124
II.7 Definition and Construction of Main Covariates 126
H.8 Last Month s Net Wages by Groups 130
119 Last Month s Other Income by Groups 130
IH.l Simulation Estimation of a Simple MNP Model (1) 169
HI.2 Simulation Estimation of a Simple MNP Model (2) 170
HI.3 Simulation Estimation of a Small Panel Model 173
IV. 1 Quarterly Labour Market Transitions 190
IV.2 Descriptive Statistics for Constant Quarterly
Variables 193
IV.3 Empirical Means for Time Varying Quarterly
Variables 193
IV.4 The Role of Lagged Unemployment Duration 1%
9
IV.5 Reduced Form on Demographics and Covariance
Parameters 199
IV.6 Augmented Demographics: Checking Other Income
and Unemployment Sector 203
IV.7 Augmented Demographics (allowing for initial
conditions) 205
IV.8 Benefits/Duration and Age Dynamic Specifications 205
IV.9 Semi Annual and Annual Labour Market Transitions 216
IV. 10 Constant Variables in the Semi Annual and Annual
Sample 217
IV. 11 Time Varying Variables in the Semi Annual and
Annual Sample 218
IV. 12 Augmented Demographic Specification (semi annual
sample) 219
IV. 13 Augmented Demographics (semi annual sample,
allowing for initial conditions) 221
IV. 14 Other Specifications for Semi Annual Data 222
IV. 15 Augmented Demographic Specification (annual sample) 225
IV. 16 Other Specifications for Annual Data 227
IV. 17 Summary of Declining Re Employment Chances
During Unemployment 233
10
List of Figures
1.1 Monthly Unemployment in West Germany 25
1.2 Unemployment and GDP Growth Rates 25
13 Gender, Nationality and Age Proportions in
Unemployment 27
1.4 Share of Long Term Unemployment in Total
Unemployment 30
1.5 Average Duration of Completed Unemployment
Spells 30
1.6 NAIRU Estimates, Actual Unemployment, and Inflation 43
1 7 Unemployment Effects of Human Capital Decay 65
1.8 Persistence and Human Capital Decay 67
II. 1 Two Fictive Sequences of Unemployment Spells 87
n.2 Point Sampling and Calendar Data 113
H.3 The Sampling Scheme 114
H.4 Duration of All Reported Spells of Unemployment 116
II.5 Duration of Uncensored Spells of Unemployment 116
H.6 Total Duration of Unemployment Spells between
1974 1984 122
I l Importance Sampling with Exponential Distribution 149
HI.2 Simulated Response Probabilities Comparison
between Importance Sampling and Smooth
Recursive Conditioning 153
11
IV.l Constructed Spells of Unemployment 191
IV.2 The Course of Prob(du = 1) During a Spell of
Unemployment 209
IV.3 A Comparison of Unemployment Odds 211
IV.4 The Impact of Lagged Duration Dependence 211
IV.5 Unemployment and Age 213
IV.6 Unemployment Odds for Semi Annual Data 229
IV.7 Unemployment Odds for Annual Data 230
IV.8 The Impact of Other Income for Semi Annual Data 231
IV.9 Changes in Other Income and Labour Market
Transitions 232
12
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| spelling | Mühleisen, Martin Verfasser aut Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment Martin Mühleisen Frankfurt am Main Campus-Verl. u.a. 1994 255 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Studies in labor economics 2 Zugl.: Munich, Univ., Diss. Simulatiemodellen gtt Werkloosheid gtt Unemployment -- Germany (West) -- Computer simulation Human capital -- Germany (West) Unemployed -- Germany (West) Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4225604-5 gnd rswk-swf Humankapital (DE-588)4160783-1 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland Bundesrepublik (DE-588)4011889-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4225604-5 s Humankapital (DE-588)4160783-1 s DE-604 Deutschland Bundesrepublik (DE-588)4011889-7 g Studies in labor economics 2 (DE-604)BV005982515 2 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006040142&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Mühleisen, Martin Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment Studies in labor economics Simulatiemodellen gtt Werkloosheid gtt Unemployment -- Germany (West) -- Computer simulation Human capital -- Germany (West) Unemployed -- Germany (West) Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4225604-5 gnd Humankapital (DE-588)4160783-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4225604-5 (DE-588)4160783-1 (DE-588)4011882-4 (DE-588)4011889-7 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment |
| title_auth | Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment |
| title_exact_search | Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment |
| title_full | Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment Martin Mühleisen |
| title_fullStr | Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment Martin Mühleisen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to German unemployment Martin Mühleisen |
| title_short | Human capital decay and persistence |
| title_sort | human capital decay and persistence a simulation approach to german unemployment |
| title_sub | a simulation approach to German unemployment |
| topic | Simulatiemodellen gtt Werkloosheid gtt Unemployment -- Germany (West) -- Computer simulation Human capital -- Germany (West) Unemployed -- Germany (West) Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4225604-5 gnd Humankapital (DE-588)4160783-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Simulatiemodellen Werkloosheid Unemployment -- Germany (West) -- Computer simulation Human capital -- Germany (West) Unemployed -- Germany (West) Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit Humankapital Deutschland Deutschland Bundesrepublik Hochschulschrift |
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