National population forecasting in industrialized countries: a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Amsterdam u.a.
Swets & Zeitlinger
1992
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Nederlands Interuniversitair Demografisch Instituut <'s-Gravenhage>: Publications of the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS)
24 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 364 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9026513046 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | TABLE OF CONTENTS _
Preface
PART I: CURRENT PRACTICE
1. A comparative analysis of the forecasting process 3
Harri Cruijsen
Nico Keilman
1.1. Introduction 3
1.2. A framework for the production of national
population forecasts 4
1.3. Population systems identification 6
1.4. Population systems description 10
1.4.1. Fertility 10
1.4.2. Mortality 10
1.4.3. External migration 13
1.5. Model construction 14
1.5.1. Fertility 14
1.5.2. Mortality 14
1.5.3. External migration 14
1.5.4. The cohort component model 17
1.6. Extrapolation 18
1.6.1. Fertility 18
1.6.2. Mortality 19
1.6.3. External migration 20
1.6.4. Variants 22
1.7. Execution, documentation and implementation 22
1.8. Monitoring 23
1.9. Conclusions 24
2. Methods of fertility projections and forecasts 27
Joop de Beer
2.1. Introduction 27
2.2. Conditional or unconditional 28
2.3. Demographic analysis 30
2.4. Extrapolations 33
2.5. Cross sections 38
2.6. Expectations and opinions 39
2.7. Combinations 41
2.8. Conclusions 42
3. International comparison of fertility assumptions 49
Kalman Szabo
3.1. Introduction 49
3.2. Past fertility trends 50
3.3. Projected fertility trends 52
3.4. Use of variants 54
3.5. United Nations projections 57
3.6. Concluding remarks 57
4. Methods of mortality projections and forecasts 61
Jose Gomez de Leon
Inger Texmon
4.1. Introduction 61
4.2. Mortality rates used 63
4.3. Classification of mortality projection methods 64
4.4. Projection by extrapolation of age specific
mortality rates 64
4.5. Projection by reference to a mortality model 66
4.6. Target projection of mortality 69
4.7. Projection by reference to mortality components 70
4.8. Concluding remarks 72
5. International comparison of mortality assumptions 75
Hannu Hdmcilainen
5 1. Introduction . . 75
52. Past mortality trends ... 76
53. Projected mortality trends 79
5 4. Use of variants 82
5 5. United Nations projections 83
5 6. Concluding remarks . . 85
6. Methods of external migration projections and forecasts 87
M.V. George
J. Perreault
6.1. Introduction 87
6.2. Input data used 89
6.3. Analysis of past trends 90
6.4. Projection methods 93
6.5. Simulation models 97
6.6. Concluding remarks 99
7. International comparison of external migration
assumptions 105
Rob van der Erf
7.1. Introduction 105
7.2. Usefulness of the questionnaires 106
7.3. Observed net immigration 108
7.4. Projected net external migration 110
7.5. Use of variants 118
7.6. United Nations projections 123
7.7. Concluding remarks 125
PART II: NEW STRATEGIES
8. Accuracy, monitoring, and evaluation of national
population projections 129
John F. Long
8.1. Introduction 129
8.2. Uncertainty in population forecasts 130
8.2.1. Alternative projection series 131
8.2.2. Uncertainty and effects by components
of change 132
8.2.3. Determining statistical confidence intervals
for population forecasts 133
8.2.4. Accuracy of past population forecasts 135
8.3. Monitoring current population forecasts 139
8.4. Evaluation of population projections 140
8.5. Conclusions 142
9. General time series models for forecasting fertility 147
Joop de Beer
9.1. Introduction 147
9.2. Deterministic models 149
9.3. Stochastic models 151
9.4. Age specific fertility 155
9.5. Univariate or multivariate? 157
9.6. Cycles 158
9.7. Practical experience 159
9.8. Time series forecasts for three countries 159
9.8.1. Federal Republic of Germany 160
9.8.2. The Netherlands 164
9.8.3. United States 166
9.9. Concluding remarks 169
10. ARIMA and principal component models in forecasting
age specific fertility 177
William Bell
10.1. Introduction 177
10.2. General considerations in using time series models
to forecast age specific fertility 179
10.2.1. Length of series, and how many of the data
to use? 179
10.2.2. Period or cohort basis? 180
10.2.3. Use of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and
relative fertility rates 181
10.2.4. Transformation of the data 182
10.2.5. Forecast intervals and alternative
projections 185
10.3. The dimensionality and consistency problem and
time series methods 187
10.3.1. Univariate time series models for each age
separately 188
10.3.2. Multivariate models for all ages jointly 191
10.3.3. Curve fitting to reduce dimensionality 192
10.3.4. Linear approximations and the principal
components approach 194
10.4. Conclusions 195
11. Explanatory models for fertility projections and
forecasts 201
John Ermisch
11.1. Theoretical bases 201
11.2. Which fertility variable? 204
11.3. Model design 207
11.4. Short term forecasting 215
11.5. Long term forecasting 218
11.6. Conclusions 220
12. Using birth expectations information in national population
forecasts 223
Hans van de Giessen
12.1. Introduction 223
12.2. The use of birth expectations: an overview 224
12.3. The reliability and stability of birth expectations
in the Netherlands 227
12.4. Adjusting birth expectations in the Netherlands 231
12.4.1. The Method of Limiting Factors 232
12.4.2. The Inverse Snowball Method 235
12.4.3. The Partial Adjustment Forecasting Model .... 237
12.5. Summary and conclusions 238
13. Empirical two way tables for projecting and forecasting
age specific mortality 243
Jose Gomez de Leon
lnger Texmon
13.1. Introduction 243
13.2. Some models for fitting mortality data 244
13.3. Robust resistant iterative fitting methods and
diagnostic tools 245
13.3.1. The robust procedure 247
13.3.2. Diagnostic tools 248
13.3.3. A supplementary diagnostic tool: the biplot .... 249
13.4. A summary view of results 253
13.4.1. The model fits 253
13.4.2. Description of the time parameters 264
13.5. Illustration of projection by extrapolation 267
Appendix 13.1. The connection between members of the family
of models 277
Appendix 13.2. The robust estimation procedure 278
PART III: THE FUTURE
14. National population forecasting: state of the art and research
needs 283
Frans J. Willekens
14.1. Introduction 283
14.2. A conceptual framework 284
14.3. The population projection model 290
14.3.1. Model specification 290
14.3.2. Parameter estimation: the accounting tradition .. 292
14.4. Forecasting the components of demographic change:
generalities 295
14.5. Fertility forecasting 299
14.6. Mortality forecasting 302
14.7. International migration forecasting 305
14.8. Predictability of demographic processes 306
14.9. Conclusions and research needs 310
14.9.1. Cohort component model (population
projection model) 311
14.9.2. Methods for the analysis of demographic time
series 312
14.9.3. Use of information on attitudes, expectations
and intentions 313
14.9.4. Predictability of demographic processes 314
14.9.5. Forecasting with limited data 314
15. The future of national population forecasting 323
Harri Cruijsen
Nico Keilman
15.1. Introduction 323
15.2. A changing environment 324
15.3. The predictability of demographic trends at the national
level 329
15.3.1. Ex post observed errors in total population,
in growth rates, and in age structure 330
15.3.2. A more sophisticated methodology does not
necessarily imply smaller forecast errors 333
15.3.3. How fast does uncertainty increase when we
look further into the future? 334
15.3.4. Instruments to express uncertainty in
traditional forecasting: variants, target years
presentation 335
15.4. Towards closer international co operation 336
The authors of this volume 341
Appendix: Questionnaire 343
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:26:35Z |
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| isbn | 9026513046 |
| language | English |
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| physical | 364 S. graph. Darst. |
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| series | Nederlands Interuniversitair Demografisch Instituut <'s-Gravenhage>: Publications of the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) |
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| spelling | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... ed. by Nico Keilman ... Amsterdam u.a. Swets & Zeitlinger 1992 364 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Nederlands Interuniversitair Demografisch Instituut <'s-Gravenhage>: Publications of the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) 24 Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Industriestaaten (DE-588)4026840-8 gnd rswk-swf Industriestaaten (DE-588)4026840-8 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Keilman, Nico Sonstige oth Nederlands Interuniversitair Demografisch Instituut <'s-Gravenhage>: Publications of the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) 24 (DE-604)BV000008644 24 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005874874&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... Nederlands Interuniversitair Demografisch Instituut <'s-Gravenhage>: Publications of the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4026840-8 |
| title | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... |
| title_auth | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... |
| title_exact_search | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... |
| title_full | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... ed. by Nico Keilman ... |
| title_fullStr | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... ed. by Nico Keilman ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | National population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... ed. by Nico Keilman ... |
| title_short | National population forecasting in industrialized countries |
| title_sort | national population forecasting in industrialized countries a survey carried out by the netherlands central bureau of statistics |
| title_sub | a survey carried out by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics ... |
| topic | Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prognose Bevölkerungsentwicklung Industriestaaten |
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