Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Göteborg
Nationalekonomiska Inst., Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Univ.
1993
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Ekonomiska studier
35 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 300 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9197107247 |
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| adam_text | iii
LIST OF TABLES
Table Description Page
1. A summary of the fertility studies in Sweden. 70
2. A summary of the fertility studies in the United States. 72
3. Descriptive statistics for birth spells, Sweden. 121
4. Observed first and second birth rates by three year age
groups, Sweden. 12 3
5. Correlations between completed birth spells, Sweden. 125
6. Definition of variables utilized in the analysis and
marginal distributions of first birth in Sweden. 12 6
7. Birth process model with quadratic form of duration
dependence, Sweden. 129
8. Estimated duration dependence coefficients by number of
explanatory variables, Sweden. 134
9.a. Average yearly growth rates of the real wages of salesmen
and male shop assistants, and male manufacturing wages. 141
9.b. Average yearly growth rates of the real wages of saleswomen
and female shop assistants, and female manufacturing wagesl41
10. Estimates of a Weibull birth process model with parity
specific stopping based on two different wage series, 1. 143
11 Estimates of a Weibull birth process model with parity
specific stopping based on two different wage series, 2. 147
12. Ages of birth cohorts during 1984 1981, Sweden. 150
13.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for the Weibull birth process model
with two different wage series, and only parity specific
stopping as the unobserved heterogeneity control, for women
born in Cohort 1 (1936 1940). 151
13.b x2 Goodness of fit tests for the Weibull birth process model
with two different wage series, and only parity specific
stopping as the unobserved heterogeneity control, for women
born in Cohort 2 (1941 1945). 152
13.c. x2 Goodness of fit tests for the Weibull birth process model
with two different wage series, and only parity specific
stopping as the unobserved heterogeneity control, for women
born in Cohort 3 (1946 1950). 153
13.d. x2 Goodness of fit tests for the Weibull birth process model
with two different wage series, and only parity specific
stopping as the unobserved heterogeneity control, for women
born in Cohort 4 (1951 1955). 153
14. x Critical Values. 154
15. Bonferroni Statistics. 154
16. Sample size and mean duration by transition, Sweden. 162
17. Descriptive statistics, HUS 1988. 162
iv
18. Birth process model with quadratic form of duration
dependence, without explanatory variables and with different
unobserved heterogeneity assumptions, for different birth
cohorts, Sweden. 164
19. Estimates of birth process model with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively, no heterogeneity (WH), only
women specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both women and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM), Sweden. 170
20. Estimates of birth process model with Quadratic duration
dependence, and respectively, no heterogeneity (WH), only
women specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both women and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM), Sweden. 174
21.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Quadratic and Weibull models
without unobserved heterogeneity, Sweden. 179
21.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Quadratic and Weibull models
with woman specific unobserved heterogeneity, Sweden. 180
2I.e. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Quadratic and Weibull models
with parity specific unobserved heterogeneity, Sweden. 180
21.d. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Quadratic and Weibull models
with woman and parity specific unobserved heterogeneity,
Sweden. 181
22. Sample size and mean duration by transition, USA. 191
23. Descriptive statistics, PSID 1968 1988. 192
24. Estimates of birth process model with Weibull, Gompertz and
Quadratic duration dependence, for white and nonwhite women
and for the first two transitions, USA. No assumptions about
individual heterogeneity. 196
25. Estimates of birth process model with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively, no heterogeneity (WH), only
women specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and with both women and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM). White and nonwhite women, USA. 199
26. Estimates of birth process model with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively, no heterogeneity (WH), only
women specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and with both women and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM). White women, USA. 207
27. Estimates of birth process model with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively, no heterogeneity (WH), only
women specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and with both women and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM). Nonwhite women, USA. 210
28. Sample size and mean duration by transition and birth cohorts,
White and Nonwhite women, USA. 215
29. Estimates of birth process model with Weibull duration
dependence with parity specific heterogeneity (MS). White and
nonwhite women by birth cohorts, USA. 217
30. Signs of the estimated parameters in fertility models from HUS
and PSID data. 228
V
A2.1.Total income by age and gender (in 000 s 1976 SKR) . 235
A2.2.Regression coefficients and diagnostic statistics log log
specification. 236
A2.3.Predicted income by data source (in 000 s 1976 SKR.) 237
vi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Description Page
1. Birth rates in Sweden and the United States, per 1000
population. 5
2. Labor force participation rates for Sweden and the United
States, 1948 1988. 6
3.a. Hourly manufacturing Wages, by sex: 1948 1988 in Sweden, in
1988 SEK. 7
3.b. Ratio of female to male manufacturing wages in Sweden. 8
4.a. Median income of persons, by sex: 1948 1988 in the United
States, in 1988 dollars. 9
4.b. Ratio of female to male incomes in the United States. 9
5.a. Number of first births by age and by birth cohort, Sweden.
119
5.b. Number of first births by age and by birth cohort, Sweden.
120
6.a. Number of second births by age and by birth cohort, Sweden.
120
6.b. Number of second births by age and by birth cohort, Sweden.
121
7. Waiting time frequencies for the first birth, Sweden. 122
8. Waiting time frequencies for the second birth, Sweden. 123
9. Observed hazard values for the first birth, Sweden. 124
10. Observed hazard values for the second birth, Sweden. 124
I 11. The real monthly mean wage earnings of salesmen and
! shop assistants, for ages 20 24, by sexes, Sweden. 140
12. The real monthly mean wage earnings of salesmen and
shop assistants, for ages 45 49, by sexes, Sweden. 140
13. The life table hazard estimates of first, second and third
births, Sweden. 163
14. The life table hazard estimates of first births, USA. 195
15. The life table hazard estimates of second births, USA. 195
16. The life table hazard estimates of third births, USA. 196
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS i
LIST OF TABLES iii
LIST OF FIGURES vi
CHAPTER
I. INTRODUCTION 1
1. Women s Wag* Rates, Men s Income and Fertility 1
2. Recent Trends in Sweden and the United states. 4
3. Research Method: Event History Analysis 10
4. Policy Concerns relating to Women s Wages and Men s
Income and Fertility 13
5. Outline of the Dissertation 14
II. REVIEW OF FERTILITY MODELS 16
1. Introduction 16
2. Economic Models 17
2.1. Static Models 17
2.2. Dynamic Models 22
3. Summary 34
viii
III. EMPIRICAL STUDIES 37
1. Introduction 37
2. Evidence front Macro Studies Aggregate Time Series37
2.1. Sweden 37
2.2. United States 42
3. Evidence from Micro Studies surveys 46
3.1. Sweden 4 6
3.2. United States 58
4. summary 71
IV. ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY 77
1. Duration Analysis 77
1.1. Nonparametric Estimators 82
1.2. Parametric Estimators 86
1.2.1. Proportional Hazards Rate Models 86
1.2.2. Accelerated Failure Time Models 92
1.2.3. Generalized Waiting time Regression
Models 93
2. A Continuous Time Birth Process Model as a Hazard
Rate Model 95
3. Unobserved Heterogeneity and NonParametric Maximum
Likelihood Estimator, (NPMLE) 97
3.1. Woman specific Unobserved Heterogeneity 98
3.2. Parity (State ) specific Unobserved
Heterogeneity 100
3.3. Limitations of Heterogeneity Techniques 103
4. Time Varying Variables and Endogeneity 105
5. The Problems of Weighting and Incomplete Spell
Information in Duration Analysis 108
6. Model Selection Criteria 109
7. Chi Square Goodness of Fit Test 111
8. Summary 112
ix
V. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS FROM SWEDEN 118
1. Introduction 118
2. A Hazard Rate Model for Births Without Heterogeneity
118
3. The Need of Age and Gender Specific Wage and Income
Series and Heckman walker Data Set 136
4. An Improved Macro Wage and Income Series from Official
Statistics 137
5. Results from the Swedish Fertility Survey Data 142
6. Aggregate Macro Data versus Micro Data with
Measurement Errors 155
7. Results from HUS Panel Data 157
8. summary 185
VI. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS FROM THE UNITED STATES 189
1. Introduction 189
2. Results from the PSID 1985 1988 Ego Alter File for
White and Non white Women 189
3. Results from the PSID 1985 1988 Ego Alter File for
American Women Who Were Born in Different Birth
Cohorts 215
4. Summary 220
VII. CONCLUSIONS 225
1. Limitations of study 225
2. Major Findings and Implications 226
3. Policy Related Issues 230
4. Future Research 232
X
APPENDIX 233
A 233
Al. Explanation of test results. 233
A2. Heckman and walker s way to construct wage rate and
income series 234
A3.a.The Real Imputed Monthly Mean salaries of salesmen and
Male Shop Assistants in Wholesale and Retail Trade, in
Sweden. 240
A3.b.The Real imputed Monthly Mean Salaries of Saleswomen and
Female shop Assistants in Wholesale and Retail Trade, in
Sweden. 242
A4.a.Average yearly growth rates of the real wages of salesmen
and male shop assistants, before and after income tax and
male manufacturing wages. 244
A4.b.Average yearly growth rates of the real wages of
saleswomen and female shop assistants, before and after
income tax and female manufacturing wages. 245
AS. Variable Notations for Annual Earnings from Tax Returns
for Different Years. 246
A6. Age and Gender Specific Wage Relations between HUS
Panel and Salespersons and Shop Assistants 248
A7. Estimates of Birth process Model with Quadratic
Duration Dependence, respectively with no Heterogeneity
(WH) , only Women Specific Heterogeneity (OH), only Parity
Specific Heterogeneity (MS) and with both Women and
Parity specific Heterogeneity (DM). without work
Experience, Sweden. 250
xi
B 254
Bl. Estimates of birth process models with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively no heterogeneity (WH), only
woman specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both woman and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM), white and nonwhite women born in
Cohort 0: 1945, USA. 254
B2. Estimates of birth process models with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively no heterogeneity (WH), only
woman specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both woman and parity specific
heterogeneity (DM), white and nonwhite women born in
Cohort 1: 1946 1950, DBA. 258
B3. Estimates of birth process models with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively no heterogeneity (WH), only
woman specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both woman and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM), white and nonwhite women born in
Cohort 2: 1951 1955, DBA. 2 61
B4. Estimates of birth process models with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively no heterogeneity (WH), only
woman specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both woman and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM), white and nonwhite women born in
Cohort 3: 1956 1960, USA. 264
B5. Estimates of birth process models with Weibull duration
dependence, and respectively no heterogeneity (WH), only
woman specific heterogeneity (UH), only parity specific
heterogeneity (MS), and both woman and parity specific
heterogeneity (UM), white and nonwhite women born in
Cohort 4: 1961 , USA. 2 67
B6.a. x2 Goodneas of fit tests for Weibull model for White and
Nonwhite women without heterogeneity, and with individual
specific heterogeneity, USA. 270
B6.b. x2 Qoodness of fit tests for Weibull model for White and
Nonwhite women with parity specific heterogeneity, and
with individual and state specific heterogeneity, DBA.
271
xii
B7.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for Whit*
women without heterogeneity, and with individual specific
heterogeneity, 08A. 272
B7.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for White
women with parity specific heterogeneity, and with
individual and state specific heterogeneity, USA. 273
B8.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for Nonwbite
women without heterogeneity, and with individual specific
heterogeneity, USA. 274
B8.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for Nonwhite
women with parity specific heterogeneity, and with
individual and state specific heterogeneity, USA. 275
B9.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 0: 1945, without heterogeneity,
and with individual specific heterogeneity, USA. 276
B9.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 0: 1945, with parity specific
heterogeneity, and with individual and state specific
heterogeneity, USA. 277
BIO.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 1: 1946 1950, without
heterogeneity, and with individual specific
heterogeneity, USA. 278
Bio.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 1: 1946 1950, with parity
specific heterogeneity, and with individual and state
specific heterogeneity, USA. 279
Bll.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 2: 1951 1955, without
heterogeneity, and with individual specific
heterogeneity, USA. 280
Bll.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for weibull model for women
born in Birth cohort 2: 1951 1955, with parity specific
heterogeneity, and with individual and state specific
heterogeneity, USA. 281
Bl2.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth cohort 3: 1956 i960, without
heterogeneity, and with individual specific
heterogeneity, USA. 282
xiii
B12.b. x2 Ooodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 3: 1956 I960, with parity specific
heterogeneity, and with individual and state specific
heterogeneity, DBA. 283
B13.a. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 4: 1961 , without heterogeneity,
and with individual specific heterogeneity, USA. 284
Bl3.b. x2 Goodness of fit tests for Weibull model for women
born in Birth Cohort 4: 1961 , with parity specific
heterogeneity, and with individual and state specific
heterogeneity, USA. 285
REFERENCES 286
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| isbn | 9197107247 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-005095383 |
| oclc_num | 214547858 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-N2 DE-12 DE-11 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-N2 DE-12 DE-11 DE-188 |
| physical | XIII, 300 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1993 |
| publishDateSearch | 1993 |
| publishDateSort | 1993 |
| publisher | Nationalekonomiska Inst., Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Univ. |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Ekonomiska studier |
| series2 | Ekonomiska studier |
| spelling | Taşıran, Ali C. Verfasser aut Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States Ali Cevat Taşıran Göteborg Nationalekonomiska Inst., Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Univ. 1993 XIII, 300 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Ekonomiska studier 35 Zugl.: Göteborg, Univ., Diss., 1993 Einkommen (DE-588)4013887-2 gnd rswk-swf Geburtenziffer (DE-588)4156178-8 gnd rswk-swf Schweden (DE-588)4077258-5 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Schweden (DE-588)4077258-5 g Einkommen (DE-588)4013887-2 s Geburtenziffer (DE-588)4156178-8 s USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g DE-604 Ekonomiska studier 35 (DE-604)BV000011510 35 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005095383&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Taşıran, Ali C. Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States Ekonomiska studier Einkommen (DE-588)4013887-2 gnd Geburtenziffer (DE-588)4156178-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4013887-2 (DE-588)4156178-8 (DE-588)4077258-5 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States |
| title_auth | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States |
| title_exact_search | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States |
| title_full | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States Ali Cevat Taşıran |
| title_fullStr | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States Ali Cevat Taşıran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States Ali Cevat Taşıran |
| title_short | Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and the United States |
| title_sort | wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in sweden and the united states |
| topic | Einkommen (DE-588)4013887-2 gnd Geburtenziffer (DE-588)4156178-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Einkommen Geburtenziffer Schweden USA Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005095383&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000011510 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tasıranalic wageandincomeeffectsonthetimingandspacingofbirthsinswedenandtheunitedstates |