Investment, expectations and uncertainty:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Oxford u.a.
Blackwell
1992
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | X, 176 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 063117334X |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV005724315 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 921103s1992 d||| |||| 00||| engod | ||
| 020 | |a 063117334X |9 0-631-17334-X | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)24142930 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV005724315 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rakddb | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-384 |a DE-188 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a HB615 | |
| 082 | 0 | |a 332.6 |2 20 | |
| 084 | |a QP 720 |0 (DE-625)141929: |2 rvk | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Driver, Ciaran |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Investment, expectations and uncertainty |c Ciaran Driver and David Moreton |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Oxford u.a. |b Blackwell |c 1992 | |
| 300 | |a X, 176 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Besluitvorming |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Investeringen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Onzekerheid |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Risico's |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Investments |x Decision making | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uncertainty | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Entscheidung bei Risiko |0 (DE-588)4225781-5 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit |0 (DE-588)4070864-0 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4043212-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Investition |0 (DE-588)4027556-5 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Investition |0 (DE-588)4027556-5 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Entscheidung bei Risiko |0 (DE-588)4225781-5 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4043212-9 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 689 | 1 | 0 | |a Investition |0 (DE-588)4027556-5 |D s |
| 689 | 1 | 1 | |a Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit |0 (DE-588)4070864-0 |D s |
| 689 | 1 | 2 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4043212-9 |D s |
| 689 | 1 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Moreton, David |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003575451&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003575451 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804119908677582848 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface xi
1 Investment and Uncertainty: Introduction 1
1.1 Introductory Remarks 1
1.2 The Consequence of Uncertainty for Investment 3
1.3 Conceptualizing Uncertainty 4
1.4 Investment Equations 5
1.5 Doubts and Reservations: Hopes and Intentions 7
2 Is Investment Important? 9
2.1 Introduction 9
2.2 The Neoclassical Growth Model 10
2.3 The Contributions of Kaldor and Arrow 11
2.4 New Growth Theory 14
2.5 An Autonomous Investment Function 16
2.6 Conclusions 17
3 Capital Shortage and Trends in Investment 20
3.1 Introduction 20
3.2 Capital Shortage 20
3.3 The Capital Output Ratio 22
3.4 Accelerated Scrapping 24
3.5 Structural Change and Uncertainty 25
3.6 Conclusions 27
Appendix 3.1: Explanations for Capital Shortage 27
Appendix 3.2: Accelerated Scrapping in UK
Manufacturing 32
viii Contents
4 Investment under Risk 36
4.1 Introduction 36
4.2 Types of Investment Risk 36
4.3 The Role of Non linearities in Decisions under
Risk 38
4.4 Disequilibrium Models 42
4.5 Capital Input Decisions under Risk 44
4.6 Oligopoly and Pre emption 49
4.7 Decision Making and Uncertainty 51
4.8 Conclusions 56
Appendix 4.1: Risk Aversion in Economic Models 56
Appendix 4.2: Investment under Risk with Inflexible
ex ante Prices 58
Appendix 4.3: The Effect of Irreversibility on
Investment with Risk 59
5 Uncertainty: Conceptual Issues and Measurement
Problems 65
5.1 Introduction 65
5.2 Keynes, Knight and Uncertainty 66
5.3 The Process of Decision 70
5.4 The Origin of Convention 71
5.5 Investment and Convention 73
5.6 Problems in the Measurement of Uncertainty 74
5.7 Dispersion as a Measure of Uncertainty 75
5.8 Uncertainty versus Deficient Foresight 78
5.9 Conclusions 79
6 Dispersion as a Measure of Uncertainty 84
6.1 Introduction 84
6.2 Differences between Economic Model Forecasts 84
6.3 Understanding Dispersion 86
6.4 A Theoretical Model of Forecast Dispersion 87
6.5 Cross section Dispersion and Uncertainty: some
Questions 89
6.6 Estimation and Results 90
6.7 Extra Explanatory Variables 99
6.8 Further Model Results 103
6.9 Overall Conclusions 103
Contents ix
Appendix 6.1: The Construction of the Year Ahead
Forecasts 106
Appendix 6.2: Measures of Volatility: the Construction
of GVOLPC and IVOLPC 107
7 Estimating the Effect of Uncertainty:
Aggregate Investment 112
7.1 Introduction 112
7.2 The Uncertainty Variables 113
7.3 Hypothesized Effect of Uncertainty on Investment 117
7.4 Functional Forms: Formulating an Investment
Equation 118
7.5 Levels Estimation 121
7.6 Error Correction Approach 123
7.7 Conclusions 129
Appendix 7.1: Report on Preliminary Work Using the
Dispersion of Forecasts as an Indicator of
Uncertainty: Annual Data 129
Appendix 7.2: Variable Definitions and Data Sources
for Tables 7.2 and 7.3 134
8 The Effect of Uncertainty at Industry Level 138
8.1 Introduction 138
8.2 Specification 138
8.3 The Influence of Uncertainty 139
8.4 Industry Specific Uncertainty Measures 140
8.5 Specification 141
8.6 Results 142
8.7 Authorizations and Investment 147
8.8 Conclusions 150
Appendix 8.1: Derivation of an Accelerator
Formulation in Error Correction Form
from CBI Sources 151
Appendix 8.2: CBI Industrial Trends Survey Questions
Used in the Text 153
9 Conclusions and Implications of the Research 155
9.1 Introduction 155
9.2 The Main Arguments Summarized 155
x Contents
9.3 The Main Empirical Findings Summarized 156
9.4 General Policy Implications 157
9.5 The Importance of the Findings and Specific
Implications 159
References 161
Author Index 173
Subject Index 175
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Driver, Ciaran Moreton, David |
| author_facet | Driver, Ciaran Moreton, David |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Driver, Ciaran |
| author_variant | c d cd d m dm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV005724315 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB615 |
| callnumber-raw | HB615 |
| callnumber-search | HB615 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 3615 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| classification_rvk | QP 720 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)24142930 (DE-599)BVBBV005724315 |
| dewey-full | 332.6 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
| dewey-raw | 332.6 |
| dewey-search | 332.6 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.6 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02067nam a2200553 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV005724315</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">921103s1992 d||| |||| 00||| engod</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">063117334X</subfield><subfield code="9">0-631-17334-X</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)24142930</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV005724315</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rakddb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">HB615</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">332.6</subfield><subfield code="2">20</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">QP 720</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)141929:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Driver, Ciaran</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Investment, expectations and uncertainty</subfield><subfield code="c">Ciaran Driver and David Moreton</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1. publ.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Oxford u.a.</subfield><subfield code="b">Blackwell</subfield><subfield code="c">1992</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">X, 176 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Besluitvorming</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Investeringen</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Onzekerheid</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Risico's</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Investments</subfield><subfield code="x">Decision making</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Risk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Uncertainty</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Entscheidung bei Risiko</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4225781-5</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4070864-0</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Ökonometrisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4043212-9</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Investition</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4027556-5</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Investition</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4027556-5</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Entscheidung bei Risiko</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4225781-5</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Ökonometrisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4043212-9</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Investition</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4027556-5</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4070864-0</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Ökonometrisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4043212-9</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Moreton, David</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">HBZ Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003575451&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003575451</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV005724315 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:33:40Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 063117334X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003575451 |
| oclc_num | 24142930 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-384 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-384 DE-188 |
| physical | X, 176 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1992 |
| publishDateSearch | 1992 |
| publishDateSort | 1992 |
| publisher | Blackwell |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Driver, Ciaran Verfasser aut Investment, expectations and uncertainty Ciaran Driver and David Moreton 1. publ. Oxford u.a. Blackwell 1992 X, 176 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Besluitvorming gtt Investeringen gtt Onzekerheid gtt Risico's gtt Investments Decision making Risk Uncertainty Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd rswk-swf Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 s Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 s Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s DE-604 Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s Moreton, David Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003575451&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Driver, Ciaran Moreton, David Investment, expectations and uncertainty Besluitvorming gtt Investeringen gtt Onzekerheid gtt Risico's gtt Investments Decision making Risk Uncertainty Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4225781-5 (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4043212-9 (DE-588)4027556-5 |
| title | Investment, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_auth | Investment, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_exact_search | Investment, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_full | Investment, expectations and uncertainty Ciaran Driver and David Moreton |
| title_fullStr | Investment, expectations and uncertainty Ciaran Driver and David Moreton |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investment, expectations and uncertainty Ciaran Driver and David Moreton |
| title_short | Investment, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_sort | investment expectations and uncertainty |
| topic | Besluitvorming gtt Investeringen gtt Onzekerheid gtt Risico's gtt Investments Decision making Risk Uncertainty Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Besluitvorming Investeringen Onzekerheid Risico's Investments Decision making Risk Uncertainty Entscheidung bei Risiko Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Ökonometrisches Modell Investition |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003575451&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT driverciaran investmentexpectationsanduncertainty AT moretondavid investmentexpectationsanduncertainty |