Expertise and decision support:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York u.a.
Plenum Press
1992
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 273 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0306438623 |
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| 264 | 1 | |a New York u.a. |b Plenum Press |c 1992 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Decision support systems | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Introduction 1
George Wright and Fergus Bolger
Part I. On the Nature of Expertise
Chapter 1
The Psychology of Experts: An Alternative View 11
James Shanteau
Experts as Viewed in Decision Making Research 12
Experts as Viewed in Cognitive Science Research 13
A Third View of Experts 14
Psychological Characteristics of Experts 16
Psychological Strategies of Experts 18
Implications for Expert Systems 19
Conclusions 20
References 21
Chapter 2
Improving Decisions and Judgments: The Desirable versus the
Feasible 25
Gideon Keren
Assessing the Quality of Judgments and Decisions 26
Normative, Descriptive, and Prescriptive Considerations 27
ix
x Contents
Judgments and Decisions: Outcome versus Process 29
Evaluation of Decisions by Outcome 29
Evaluation of Decisions by Process 31
Decisions and Judgments: Skill or Art? 33
Levels of Support for Improving Decisions and Judgments 36 j
Classifying Methods for Improving Decisions: Procedural versus j
Structure Modifying Techniques 40 j
A Comment on Experts 42
References 44 j
Chapter 3
Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment 47
Fergus Bolger and George Wright
Introduction 47
Part 1: Expert Probability Judgment 49
Calibration and Coherence 49
Calibration and Coherence Research with Expert Judges 50
Removing Incoherence in Probability Judgment 54
Processes Involved in Making and Assessing Probability
Judgments 55
Some Influences on the Reliability and Validity
of Probability Judgments 57
Evidence for the Proposed Influences on Probability Judgment .... 57
Part 2: Reliability and Validity in Nonprobabilistic Judgment 61
Multidimensional Judgment Tasks 61
Research Findings 62
Bootstrapping 63
Conflicting Findings , 64
Some Reasons for the Findings of Poor Expert Judgment 66
Conclusions 68
References 71
Chapter 4
On the Competence and Incompetence of Experts 77
Peter Ay ton |
Introduction 77
Expertise and Problem Solving 78
Contents xi
Expert Strategies and Concepts 80
Experience and Deductive Reasoning 81
Expertise and Judgments under Uncertainty 84
Evidence for Incompetent Expert Judgment 86
Medical Diagnosis 86
Interpretation of Legal Evidence: A Case Study 94
[ Does the Possession of Expertise Improve Probabilistic Reasoning? .. 96
Conclusion 100
References 102
Chapter 5
Epistemic Strategies: Causal Thinking in Expert and Nonexpert
Judgment 107
Lee Roy Beach
Background 107
Two Kinds of Reasoning 109
The Contingency Model of Judgment 110
Judgment Strategies 110
Judgment Task 112
Judgment Environment 112
Cognition and Causality 113
Predictive Propositions 115
Epistemic Strategy in Use 117
Broadening the Judgment Strategy Model 119
Supporting Expert Judgment 122
Elaboration of Narratives 122
Discrimination of Contextual Cues 124
References 125
Chapter 6
Sociological Perspectives on the Nature of Expertise 129
Andrew Sturdy, Innes Newman, and Peter Nicholls
Introduction 129
Theoretical Perspectives 130
Case Study of Management Consultants 136
Conclusion 145
References 149
xjj Contents
Part II. Issues in the Interaction of Expertise
and Decision Support Systems
Chapter 7
Perspectives on Expertise in the Aggregation of Judgments 155
Gene Rowe
Introduction 155
The Need for Human Judges 156
Mathematical Aggregation of Expert Judgment 157
Behavioral Aggregation 163
Mixed Aggregation Techniques 167
Delphi 168
The Nominal Group Technique 172
What Works Best and When? 173
Summary 176
References 177
Chapter 8
Decision Conferencing: A Unique Approach to the Behavioral
Aggregation of Expert Judgment 181
Patricia Reagan Cirincione and John Rohrbaugh
Improving the Accuracy of Group Judgment on Complex Tasks 182
Decision Conferencing: An Overview 185
Estimating Demand for Alcoholism Treatment in New York State:
A Case Study 187
Beyond Estimation: The Study of Cognitive Conflict 191
Appendix 193
References 199
Chapter 9
Knowledge Engineering Issues for Decision Support 203
John Gammack
Introduction 203
Issues in Knowledge Engineering 204
Knowledge Acquisition Techniques 204 I
I
Contents xiii
Validation of Knowledge Based Systems 207
Representing Knowledge within Decision Support Environments .... 210
Case Study One—A Modular Expert System Development 212
Case Study Two—A Knowledge Acquisition Scheme for Decision
Support 214
Implementation 217
Psychological Plausibility 219
Case Study Three—Participative Elicitation of Underwriting
Expertise 220
Conclusion 224
References 225
Chapter 10
Human Expertise, Statistical Models, and Knowledge Based
Systems 227
Dominic A. Clark
Introduction 227
Statistical Models and Expert Performance 229
Expert Judgment versus Linear Models 229
Expert Judgment as Linear Models 232
Expert Systems 233
Frame Based Systems 234
Rule Based Systems 235
Expert Judgment versus Expert Systems 238
Expert Systems versus Statistical Models 239
Symbolic versus Statistical Reasoning 240
Model Based Reasoning 243
Explanation 244
Summary and Conclusions 244
References 246
Chapter 11
Synthesis of Expert Judgment and Statistical Forecasting
Models for Decision Support 251
Derek Bunn
Judgment, Models, and Decision Support 251
Judgmental Adjustments 252
Structural Approaches 257
Combinations of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts 260
Synthesis and Decision Support by Adjustment or Combination 263
Conclusion 265
References 266
Index 269
|
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| spelling | Expertise and decision support ed. by George Wright ... New York u.a. Plenum Press 1992 XIV, 273 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Besliskunde gtt Decision making Decision support systems Expertise Judgment Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd rswk-swf Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd rswk-swf Datenverarbeitung (DE-588)4011152-0 gnd rswk-swf Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 s DE-604 Datenverarbeitung (DE-588)4011152-0 s Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 s Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 s Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 s Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 s Wright, George Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003404402&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Expertise and decision support Besliskunde gtt Decision making Decision support systems Expertise Judgment Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd Datenverarbeitung (DE-588)4011152-0 gnd Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd |
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| title | Expertise and decision support |
| title_auth | Expertise and decision support |
| title_exact_search | Expertise and decision support |
| title_full | Expertise and decision support ed. by George Wright ... |
| title_fullStr | Expertise and decision support ed. by George Wright ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expertise and decision support ed. by George Wright ... |
| title_short | Expertise and decision support |
| title_sort | expertise and decision support |
| topic | Besliskunde gtt Decision making Decision support systems Expertise Judgment Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd Datenverarbeitung (DE-588)4011152-0 gnd Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd |
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