Prognostics: a science in the making surveys and creates the future
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English Dutch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Amsterdam [u.a.]
Elsevier
1971
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| Ausgabe: | Abridged ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | EST: Prognostica (engl.) |
| Beschreibung: | XXVIII, 425 S. |
| ISBN: | 0444408797 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Foreword. Prognostics: what, why, which way, whither? By way of justification. XI . XIII . XXIV INTRODUCTION Chapter 1. Definitions and thought models. 1. Dogmatics of the future as dogmatics. 2. Prognostics as a science in the making. A. Quo vadis?. B. Yvhat’s in a name?. 3. Exemplary American and free-floating European thought models PART ONE: DOGMATICS Chapter 2. Prenatalia: broken love-affairs between the past and the future . 1. The vicious spiral of the prevailing attitudes of mind towards the future as a subject of study of the sociology of knowledge. ■ 2. Certainty-seeking attitudes towards the future as a cause of the coercive thought models of human bondage. Chapter 3. Theological models of the future. Chapter 4. Philosophical models of the future. Chapter 5. Historico-philosophical and historico-scientific models of the future. 1. From the Third Testament from the 12th century to the
testament of the 18th century. 2· From sacral to profane historiography: from divine to human power . 3. From the atheist Proudhon (i 1865) to the Christian Proudhon (resurrectus 1965). 4. From the left wing Hegelian critics of religion (N.T.) and the Messianic Marxists (O.T.) to the God-is-dead gospel of Nietzsche (Third Testament) 5. From law of nature to diametrically opposed socio-natural evolutionary 6. tenets. From rationalistic optimism of progress to existentialists pessimism of Being or from human supremacy to complete impotence · Chapter 6. 67 67 72 '76 79 83 85 Historical models of the future translated into coercively prescribed graphical models. 94 VII
1. Curvilinear and rectilinear certainty. 94 2. Modem sacral future-models. 102 3. Modem profane non-future-models. 109 Chapter 7. Scientific models of the future. . 116 Chapter 8. Socio-scientific future models.132 1. The law of the copying machine. 132 2. Physiocracy, social mechanics and social physics. 134 (a) Physiocracy. 135 (b) Social mechanics. 136 (c) Social physics.137 3. Economics and sociology: from “dismal science” toasocialscience . . 138 4. Socio-scientific thought model: fully scientific.142 5. Socio-scientific thought model: semi-scientific.145 6. Socio-scientific thought model: wedded to the wrong otherhalf . . . 149 7. Socio-scientific thought model: a primitive attempt atpsycho-analysis . 152 PART TWO: COUNTER-DOGMATICS AND CONTINUOUS DOG MATICS Chapter 9. Deviations from dogmatic thought and future-models . . · 156 1. Transformation of natural
science. 157 2. Elementary and fundamental change.162 3. The way of thinking about the change in thinking. 170 4. Mathematics and logic.177 5. Dogmatic certainty and prognostic uncertainty.184 6. To know is to predict, not to predict is not to know. 192 7. Changefulness and changeability.196 PART THREE: PROGNOSTICS I. Diagnostics. 204 Chapter 10. New literature: new visions of the future.205 1. Thinkers penetrate into the fourth dimension.205 2. Is integral future-vision equal to squaring the circle?. 213 Chapter 11. New future-institutes: tomorrow is another day! . 221 1. Accelerating currents, global upheaval and the under-developed Nether lands . 221 2. The prognostic paranymphs of future-knowledge: future-studies and future-institutes. 223 3. America: scene of
prognostic breakthrough and upheaval . 227 П. Prognostics. 233 Chapter 12. Four-part epic of an absolute necessity.234 A. 1930-1940 . .234 B. 1940-1950 . . շշ5 C. 1950-1960 . 236 D. 1960-1967 . . շ37 VIII
Chapter 13. The prognosis of prognosis: can we really know the future? 239 1. “Futurities” versus futurology (De Jouvenel).239 2. “Think-factories” and long-rangeforecasting(Jantsch).241 Chapter 14. Aspects and effects of modem future-research . 246 1. The time dimensions.246 2. Quantitative and qualitative. 247 A. Intuition.248 B. Fantasy. 248 C. Creativity. 250 D. Brainstorming. 251 3. Normative. 251 A. Values. 254 B. Goals. 257 4. Interdisciplinary.260 5.
Operational. 262 PART FOUR: COUNTER-PROGNOSTICS AND CONTINUOUS PROG NOSTICS . 266 Chapter 15. Exponential acceleration, explosive dynamics and fundamental reconstruction. . 267 Chapter 16. Sociology as a science of crisis, and the crisis of the social sciences. 274 Chapter 17. The gaps behind the technological gap and the sociology of sociology. 279 Chapter 18. . 287 II. . 294 Chapter 19. The concept of time and dimensions of the future . 295 Chapter 20. Futurography and futupology. 303 Chapter 21. Renaissance of the social sciences. 1· Evaluation . 2· Revolution. 3.
Revaluation. 310 310 315 320 Chapter 22. Normality as a norm for social science. 322 Chapter 23. Social technology and social politics. 332 I. Agnostics Antithesis, analogy, synthesis and coexistence . . . PART FIVE: PROGNOSTIC PROBLEMS, PLANS AND PROSPECTS Looking back and looking forward. IX
I. The pressure of the past. 341 Chapter 24. Old bottlenecks and new problems.342 1. Casting off the myth.342 2. The correction between socio-cultural problems and socio-cultural sciences 348 3. Prognostics and democracy. 350 II. The pressure of the future. 354 Chapter 25. New notions and progressive plans.355 1. Study related to research into the future.355 2. Future education and education for the future. 357 3. Between the poles of history and future-sociology. 360 4. Creation of a new elite: generalists and Utopians. 367 5. Future-consciousness and future-choice.369 III. The future of the future. 373 Chapter 26. Positive visions and meaningful prospects. 374 1. Present and future applications of prognostics.374
2. Futuro-cracy and futuro-creativity. 375 3. Prevision and revision. 376 Appendix. The principal types of modem prognosis techniques . . . . Footnotes.406 X 380 |
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| edition | Abridged ed. |
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| id | DE-604.BV005190740 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-10-24T10:01:14Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0444408797 |
| language | English Dutch |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003210848 |
| oclc_num | 139241 |
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| physical | XXVIII, 425 S. |
| psigel | TUB-nveb HUB-SO047aak200705 |
| publishDate | 1971 |
| publishDateSearch | 1971 |
| publishDateSort | 1971 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| spelling | Polak, Frederik Lodewijk 1907-1985 Verfasser (DE-588)127351116 aut Prognostica Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future by Fred L. Polak Abridged ed. Amsterdam [u.a.] Elsevier 1971 XXVIII, 425 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier EST: Prognostica (engl.) Futurologie gtt Prévision, Théorie de la Forecasting Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd rswk-swf Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003210848&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Polak, Frederik Lodewijk 1907-1985 Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future Futurologie gtt Prévision, Théorie de la Forecasting Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4155776-1 |
| title | Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future |
| title_alt | Prognostica |
| title_auth | Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future |
| title_exact_search | Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future |
| title_full | Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future by Fred L. Polak |
| title_fullStr | Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future by Fred L. Polak |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future by Fred L. Polak |
| title_short | Prognostics |
| title_sort | prognostics a science in the making surveys and creates the future |
| title_sub | a science in the making surveys and creates the future |
| topic | Futurologie gtt Prévision, Théorie de la Forecasting Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Futurologie Prévision, Théorie de la Forecasting |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003210848&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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