Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chur u.a.
Rüegger
1992
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschafts-, Struktur- und Regionalforschung <Sankt Gallen>: SIASR-Schriftenreihe
29 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | St. Gallen, Hochschule für Wirtschafts-, Rechts- und Sozialwiss., Diss., 1992. - Auch als: SIASR ; 29 |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 222 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3725304459 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc |c von Alexander Christian Jung |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface IV
List of Tables X
List of Figures XII
1. Introduction 1
The European Framework 1
Limits of the Study 1
Aims of the Study 2
Methodological Problems 2
Structure of the Book 3
Part I: Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency for EMS 5
Currencies and the Swiss Franc
2. Foreign Exchange Markets and Activities 6
2.1. Foreign Exchange Markets 6
2.1.1. Characterization of Foreign Exchange 7
Markets
2.1.2. Basic Relations in Foreign Exchange 12
Markets
2.1.3. Foreign Exchange Arrangements in 16
Western Europe
2.1.4. Foreign Exchange Options and Futures 20
Markets in Western Europe
VI
2.2. Foreign Exchange Market Activities 22
2.2.1. Basic Activities 23
2.2.2. Exchange Trading and Marketmaking 26
2.2.3. Hedging Operations 27
3. Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency 31
3.1. Theoretical Foundation of Market Efficiency 32
3.1.1. The Fair Game Model 33
3.1.2. Martingale Models 34
3.1.3. The Random Walk Model 35
3.2. Empirical Regularities of Exchange Rates 36
3.2.1. Empirical Regularities of Spot Rates 39
3.2.2. Empirical Regularities of Forward Rates 42
3.2.3. Empirical Regularities of Forward Premia 43
3.3. The Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis 48
3.4. Covered and Uncovered Interest Parity 50
3.4.1. Covered Interest Parity 51
3.4.2. Uncovered Interest Parity 52
3.5. The Role of Taxes, Transaction Costs and Risk Premia 53
3.5.1. The Role of Taxes 54
3.5.2. The Role of Transaction Costs 56
3.5.3. The Role of Risk Premia 59
4. Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis 62
4.1. Overview 62
4.2. Tests of Forward Market Efficiency 63
4.2.1. Necessary Condition: Cointegration of 66
Forward and Spot Rates
4.2.2. Sufficient Condition: The Fama Test 71
4.2.3. Structural Stability ?7
4.3. Summary of the Results 78
Vll
5. Models of the Foreign Exchange Bisk Premium 80
5.1. The Modern Theory 80
5.1.1. Arbitragers, Speculators and Hedgers 81
5.1.2. Equilibrium of the Forward and 82
Spot Exchange Market
5.1.3. The Role of a Forward Exchange Risk Premium 83
5.1.4. Critique of the Modern Theory 85
Jensen s Inequality and the Siegel Paradox
5.2. Portfolio Theory 87
5.2.1. The Sharpe Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model 88
(CAPM) for an Open Economy
5.2.2. Hedging Pressure 94
5.2.3. Inflation, Risk Premia and the Quality of 95
Money Balances
5.2.4. Portfolio Balance and Relative Supplies of 96
Outside Assets
5.3. Estimates of the Risk Premium 98
5.3.1. Fama s Variance Analysis 100
5.3.2. Median Response from Survey Data 103
5.3.3. Expected Second Moments 105
Part II: Stability of the European Monetary System 107
and the Swiss Franc
6. The European Monetary System and the Swiss 108
Monetary System
6.1. The European Monetary System 111
6.1.1. Overview 112
6.1.2. The Exchange Rate Mechanism 114
6.1.3. Foreign Exchange Reserves 117
6.1.4. Interventions and Realignments 119
VIII
6.2. The Swiss Monetary System 122
6.2.1. The Exchange Rate Mechanism 124
6.2.2. Foreign Exchange Reserves 126
6.2.3. Interventions 127
6.3. Experience and Performance of EMS Exchange 129
Rates and the Swiss Franc
6.3.1. Exchange Rate Variability 130
6.3.2. Convergence of Market Fundamentals and 135
EMS Credibility
6.3.3. Summary of the Results 140
7. A Model of Realignments and Speculative Attacks 142
in the EMS
7.1. Overview 144
7.2. A Monetary Model of Realignments and 144
Speculative Attacks
7.2.1. The Model 145
7.2.2. Inflation and Realignments 148
7.2.3. Speculative Attacks and Market Fundamentals 152
7.2.4. Uncertainty about Government Intervention 154
7.3. Implications for the Stability of the EMS I56
8. Speculative Attacks and Speculative Price Bubbles 158
8.1. Speculative Attacks 161
8.1.1. Theory of Speculative Attacks I62
8.1.2. Tests for Speculative Attacks in the EMS i69
8.1.2.1. Realignments and Foreign 169
Exchange Reserves in the EMS
8.1.2.2. Cointegration between Market 174
Fundamentals and Exchange Rates
in the EMS
1A
8.2. Speculative Price Bubbles 182
8.2.1. Theory of Speculative Price Bubbles 183
8.2.2. Tests for Speculative Price Bubbles: 186
The Case of the Swiss Franc
8.2.2.1. Implicit Collapse Probability 187
8.2.2.2. Necessary Condition: 191
Model Specification
8.2.2.3. Sufficient Condition: 194
Cointegration between Market
Fundamentals and Exchange Rates
8.3. Summary of the Results 197
9. Conclusions 198
Appendix: Data Description 201
References 202
A
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Trading Hours at Major Foreign Exchanges 9
Table 2.2 Total Foreign Exchange Market Activity H
in April 1989
Table 2.3 Swiss Balance of Payments *5
Table 2.4a Foreign Exchange Arrangements in Western Europe: *7
The Spot Markets
Table 2.4b Foreign Exchange Arrangements in Western Europe: 18
The Forward Markets
Table 2.5 Number of Exchange Traded Currency Option Contracts 21
at the European Options Exchange
Table 4.1 DF Tests and ADF Tests for Unit Roots ^
Table 4.2 Tests of the Cointegration Regression 70
Table 4.3 Fama Test with Monthly Data, 1979 1989, 74
OLS Regressions of (St+3 St) and (Ft St+3)
on (Ft St)
Table 4.4 Fama Test with Quarterly Data, 1979 1989, 76
OLS Regressions of (S^ St) and (Ft St+3)
on (Ft St)
Table 4.5 Structural Stability Tests 77
Table 5.1 Significance of Variable Risk Premia in 101
Forward Rate Errors, Quarterly Data, 1979 1989
Table 6.1 Foreign Exchange Reserves in Million SDRs 108
Table 6.2 Official Net Reserves of Countries in the EMS ll6
Exchange Rate Arrangements
Table 6.3 Appreciation of the Deutsche Mark vis a vis other 120
EMS currencies
Table 6.4 Monetary Growth Rates and Monetary Targets 123
Table 6.5 Foreign Exchange Reserves held by the Swiss 127
National Bank
Table 6.6 Variability of Exchange Rates, 1974 1989 134
Table 6.7 Convergence in the EMS, Switzerland and Austria 137
Table 8.1 Tests for the Order of Integration, 177
Quarterly Data, 1979 1989
Table 8.2a Tests for Cointegration of Exchange Rates and 180
Market Fundamentals, France and Italy,
Quarterly Data, 1979 1989
Table 8.2b Tests for Cointegration of Exchange Rates and 181
Market Fundamentals, the Netherlands,
Quarterly Data, 1979 1989
Table 8.3 Implicit Probability of Collapse in the Deutsche Mark 189
Swiss Franc Exchange Rate under Bubble Hypothesis,
October 1981 April 1986
Table 8.4 Tests for the Order of Integration, Quarterly Data, 193
1979 1989,
Germany Switzerland
Table 8.5 Tests for Cointegration of Exchange Rates and Market 196
Fundamentals, Quarterly Data, 1979 1989,
Germany Switzerland
XII
List of Figures
Figure 3.1 Nominal Spot and Forward Rates 38
Figure 3.2 Nominal Spot Rates 40
Figure 3.3 Nominal Forward Rates 42
Figure 3.4 Forward Premia for EMS and Flexible Exchange Rates, 45
1979 1989
Figure 3.5 Forward Market Equilibrium 49
Figure 3.6 Interest Parity and Abnormal Capital Flows 56
Figure 3.7 Interest Parity and the Neutral Band 58
Figure 3.8 Interest Parity and Risk Premia 6°
Figure 5.1 Forward Market Equilibrium and the Risk Premium 83
Figure 7.1 Equilibrium under a System of Floating 148
Exchange Rates
Figure 7.2 Speculative Attack on the Currency 151
Figure 7.3 Reaction of the Economy to Fiscal Stimulus 155
followed by Realignment
Figure 8.1 Transition and Realignment under a Crawling 1°
Peg Regime
Figure 8.2 Foreign Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange 1^1
Reserves: France, 1979 1989
Figure 8.3 Foreign Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange 1^
Reserves: Italy, 1979 1989
Figure 8.4 Foreign Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange 1
Reserves: Netherlands, 1979 1989
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:18:11Z |
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| isbn | 3725304459 |
| language | German |
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| physical | XII, 222 S. graph. Darst. |
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| spelling | Jung, Alexander Christian Verfasser (DE-588)170788741 aut Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc von Alexander Christian Jung Chur u.a. Rüegger 1992 XII, 222 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschafts-, Struktur- und Regionalforschung <Sankt Gallen>: SIASR-Schriftenreihe 29 St. Gallen, Hochschule für Wirtschafts-, Rechts- und Sozialwiss., Diss., 1992. - Auch als: SIASR ; 29 Devisenmarkt (DE-588)4139011-8 gnd rswk-swf Schweizer Franken (DE-588)4180480-6 gnd rswk-swf Europäisches Währungssystem (DE-588)4015756-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Europäisches Währungssystem (DE-588)4015756-8 s Devisenmarkt (DE-588)4139011-8 s Schweizer Franken (DE-588)4180480-6 s DE-604 Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschafts-, Struktur- und Regionalforschung <Sankt Gallen>: SIASR-Schriftenreihe 29 (DE-604)BV005542939 29 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002967885&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Jung, Alexander Christian Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschafts-, Struktur- und Regionalforschung <Sankt Gallen>: SIASR-Schriftenreihe Devisenmarkt (DE-588)4139011-8 gnd Schweizer Franken (DE-588)4180480-6 gnd Europäisches Währungssystem (DE-588)4015756-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4139011-8 (DE-588)4180480-6 (DE-588)4015756-8 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc |
| title_auth | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc |
| title_exact_search | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc |
| title_full | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc von Alexander Christian Jung |
| title_fullStr | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc von Alexander Christian Jung |
| title_full_unstemmed | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc von Alexander Christian Jung |
| title_short | Foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the European monetary system in consideration of the Swiss Franc |
| title_sort | foreign exchange market efficiency and stability of the european monetary system in consideration of the swiss franc |
| topic | Devisenmarkt (DE-588)4139011-8 gnd Schweizer Franken (DE-588)4180480-6 gnd Europäisches Währungssystem (DE-588)4015756-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Devisenmarkt Schweizer Franken Europäisches Währungssystem Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002967885&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV005542939 |
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