World metal demand: trends and prospects
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, DC
Resources for the Future
1990
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXII, 341 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 091570756X |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures x
List of Tables xiii
Foreword xix
Preface xxi
1 Introduction 1
John E. Tilton
An Overview of World Metal Demand 5
Organization of This Book 8
References 11
2 Conceptual and Methodological Issues 13
Marian Radetzki and John E. Tilton
Measures of Metal Demand 13
Indicators of Macroeconomic Activity 23
Intensity of Use Technique 25
The IU Hypothesis and the IU Technique 26
Other Approaches to the Analysis of Metal Demand 30
References 32
3 The OECD Countries: Demand Trend Setters 35
John E. Tilton
Metal Consumption Patterns in the OECD Countries 36
Accounting for Economic Growth 45
Patterns in Intensity of Use 50
Material Composition of Products 59
Product Composition of Income 67
Conclusions 72
References 74
viii CONTENTS
4 Developing Countries: The New Growth Markets 77
Marian Radetzki
Actual Metal Consumption Trends in the Developing Countries 78
Determinants of Metal Consumption in Brazil, India, and South
Korea 91
Conclusions 109
References 112
5 The Centrally Planned Economies: Extravagant Consumers 113
Istvan Dobozi
Long Run Consumption Trends in CMEA 115
Possible Factors Contributing to the Decline in IU 125
Are the CMEA Countries Overconsuming Metals? 140
Conclusions 154
Acknowledgment 155
References 155
6 The Passenger Car Industry: Faithful to Steel 161
Roderick G. Eggert
Changes in Materials Consumption 164
Passenger Car Production 169
Pounds of Material per Car 185
Car Manufacturing and Global Trends in Metal Consumption 202
Conclusions 204
Acknowledgments 206
References 207
Appendix to Chapter 6 209
7 The Food and Beverage Container Industries:
Change and Diversity 217
Carmine Nappi
Competing Food and Beverage Containers 218
Materials Substitution in the U.S. Food and Beverage Container
Industries 225
Materials Substitution in Other Industrialized Countries 239
Conclusion 250
Acknowledgments 253
References 253
CONTENTS ix
8 The Outlook for World Metal Demand 255
John E. Tilton
Geographic Shifts in Metal Markets 255
Long Run Trends in Demand 258
Shortages and Gluts in Metal Markets 265
References 266
Statistical Appendix 269
Part A. Macroeconomic Data 271
Part B. Metal Consumption Data 284
Part C. Intensity of Metal Use 305
Index 327
Figures
1 1 World consumption of selected metals: actual and projected trends,
1950 1987 2
1 2 Consumption of steel, aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and nickel by
the world, the OECD countries, the less developed countries, and
the centrally planned economies, 1950 1987 6
1 3 Intensity of use of steel, aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and nickel
by the world, the OECD countries, the less developed countries,
and the centrally planned economies, 1960 1987 10
2 1 Copper consumption at various stages of use 75
2 2 Relationship between intensity of steel use and per capita income in
the United States, 1888 1967 27
2 3 Relationship between true intensity of use (IU) curves and estimated
IU curve 29
3 1 Steel, aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and nickel consumption for the
United States, Japan, EEC, and OECD, 1950 1987 37
3 2 Steel, aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and nickel consumption for the
United Kingdom, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany,
1950 1987 38
3 3 Intensity of use of steel, aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and nickel
for the United States, Japan, EEC, and OECD, 1960 1987 43
3 4 Intensity of use of steel, aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, and nickel
for the EEC, United Kingdom, France, and the Federal Republic of
Germany, 1960 1987 44
4 1 GDP based intensity of use of copper at different levels of per capita
GDP in twenty five rich and poor countries, 1961 90
4 2 GDP based intensity of use of copper at different levels of per capita
GDP in thirty three rich and poor countries, 1984 91
4 3 GDP based intensity of use of aluminum in Brazil, India, and South
Korea, 1960 1986 94
4 4 GDP based intensity of use of copper in Brazil, India, and South
Korea, 1960 1986 95
4 5 GDP based intensity of use of lead in Brazil, India, and South
Korea, 1960 1986 96
4 6 GDP based intensity of use of nickel in Brazil, India, and South
Korea, 1960 1986 96
LIST OF FIGURES xi
4 7 GDP based intensity of use of steel in Brazil, India, and South
Korea, 1960 1986 97
4 8 GDP based intensity of use of zinc in Brazil, India, and South
Korea, 1960 1986 97
5 1 Consumption of selected metals in the CMEA 7, 1960 1987 116
5 2 Intensity of metal use in the CMEA 7, 1960 1987 122
5 3 Decomposition of shortfall in CMEA 7 steel consumption 124
5 4 Decomposition of shortfall in CMEA 7 aluminum consumption 125
5 5 Decomposition of shortfall in CMEA 7 copper consumption 126
5 6 Intensity of use versus GDP per capita for CMEA 7, 1960
1987 127
5 7 Idealized cross sectional intensity of use curve for less developed,
newly industrialized, CMEA, and OECD countries 127
5 8 Share of crude steel production continuously cast in (a) the CMEA
7 and (b) market economies and the CMEA 7, 1974 1987 135
5 9 Intensity of use of selected metals in CMEA 7, OECD, and Third
World countries, 1960 1987 141
6 1 Material consumption by the passenger car industries of the Federal
Republic of Germany, Japan, and the United States, 1960
1986 165
6 2 Passenger car production in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1960
1988 770
6 3 Passenger car registrations per capita versus income per capita in
the Federal Republic of Germany, 1960 1987 173
6 4 Passenger car registrations per capita versus population density in
the Federal Republic of Germany, 1960 1987 174
6 5 Passenger car production in Japan, 1960 1988 776
6 6 Passenger car registrations per capita versus population density in
Japan, 1960 1987 777
6 7 Passenger car registrations per capita versus income per capita in
Japan, 1960 1987 775
6 8 Passenger car production in the United States, 1960 1988 180
6 9 Passenger car registrations per capita versus income per capita in
the United States, 1960 1987 181
6 10 Passenger car registrations per capita versus population density in
the United States, 1960 1987 184
6 11 Changes in the number of pounds of iron and steel, aluminum, and
plastics and composites per car in the United States, Japan, and the
Federal Republic of Germany, 1960 1986 186
6 12 Average weight of a new car in the United States, Japan, and the
Federal Republic of Germany, 1960 1986 188
6 13 Share of iron and steel in the weight of new cars in the United
xii LIST OF FIGURES
States, Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany, 1960
1986 191
6 14 Share of aluminum in the weight of new cars in the United States,
Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany, 1960 1986 195
6 15 Share of plastic and composites in the weight of new cars in the
United States, Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany, 1960
1986 198
6 16 World steel consumption by the passenger car industry, 1960
1986 203
6 17 World aluminum consumption by the passenger car industry, 1960
1986 204
7 1 Competing technologies and materials for containers for food con¬
served by high temperature sterilization 220
7 2 Competing technologies and materials for beer and soft drink
containers 221
7 3 Aluminum and steel can weights (pounds per 1,000 cans), 1960
1987 225
7 4 Breakdown of U.S. beer sales by container type, 1950 1988 227
7 5 Breakdown of U.S. soft drink sales by container type, 1950
1988 228
7 6 Effects of changes in apparent determinants on aluminum consump¬
tion in beer and soft drink containers, 1964 1987 233
8 1 Hypothetical life cycle for major materials 260
8 2 Postulated relationship between economic growth and metal
consumption 263
Tables
1 1 Growth in Metal Consumption for the World, the OECD Countries,
the Less Developed Countries, and the Centrally Planned Econo¬
mies over Three Periods: 1960 1973, 1973 1979, and 1979
1987 7
1 2 Growth in GDP and Intensity of Use for the World, the OECD
Countries, the Less Developed Countries, and the Centrally Planned
Economies over Three Periods: 1960 1973, 1973 1979, and 1979
1987 9
3 1 Growth of Metal Consumption in the OECD, United States, Japan,
EEC, United Kingdom, France, and Federal Republic of Germany,
1960 1973 and 1973 1987, and Percentage Change in Metal Growth
Due to GDP and Intensity of Use 40
3 2 Growth of GDP and Intensity of Use in the OECD, United States,
Japan, EEC, United Kingdom, France, and Federal Republic of
Germany, 1960 1973 and 1973 1987 42
3 3 Sources of GDP Growth for the United States, Japan, United King¬
dom, France, and Federal Republic of Germany, 1913 1950, 1950
1973, and 1973 1984 46
3 4 Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates for the United
States, Japan, United Kingdom, France, and Federal Republic of
Germany, 1980 57
3 5 Intensity of Use of Copper, Including and Excluding Estimated
Changes in Invisible Stocks, for the United States, Japan, United
Kingdom, France, and Federal Republic of Germany, 1960, 1973,
and 1987 54
3 6 Intensity of Use of Aluminum for Primary and Secondary Metal
Consumption for the United States, Japan, United Kingdom, France,
and Federal Republic of Germany, 1960, 1973, and 1987 56
3 7 Intensity of Use of Steel, Including and Excluding Indirect Steel
Trade, for the United States, Japan, EEC, United Kingdom, France,
and Federal Republic of Germany, 1962, 1973, and 1982 57
3 8 Intensity of Use of Aluminum, Including and Excluding Aluminum
in Beverage Cans, for the United States, Japan, United Kingdom,
France, and Federal Republic of Germany, 1960, 1973, and
1987 61
3 9 Intensity of Use of Copper, Lead, and Zinc in the United States,
Japan, United Kingdom, France, and Federal Republic of Germany,
1987 62
xiv LIST OF TABLES
3 10 Growth of Real Metal Prices and Intensity of Use in the OECD,
United States, Japan, EEC, United Kingdom, France, and Federal
Republic of Germany, 1960 1973 and 1973 1987 64
3 11 Gross Domestic Investment and the Manufacturing and Services
Sectors as a Percentage of GDP for the OECD, United States,
Japan, EEC, United Kingdom, France, and Federal Republic of
Germany, 1960, 1973, and 1986 69
3 12 U.S. Production of Ten High Technology Industries and Their Share
of Total Manufacturing, 1963, 1972, and 1982 71
3 13 Share of Value Added of U.S. Manufacturing for High Technology
and Other Types of Manufacturing Industries, 1960, 1973, and
1980 72
4 1 Annual Average Growth of Metal Consumption in the Developing
Countries, 1960 1973, 1973 1979, and 1979 1987 79
4 2 Annual Average Growth of GDP and Intensity of Use in the Devel¬
oping Countries, 1960 1973, 1973 1979, and 1979 1987 79
4 3 Differences Between Actual and Trend Values of Metal Consump¬
tion in the Developing Countries, 1979 and 1987 80
4 4 Levels of and Changes in GDP Based Intensity of Use in the De¬
veloping and OECD Countries, 1960 1962 and 1984 1986 81
4 5 Levels of and Changes in GDI Based Intensity of Use in the Devel¬
oping and OECD Countries, 1960 1962 and 1983 1985 82
4 6 Copper: GDP Based Intensity of Use and Per Capita GDP in Se¬
lected Countries, 1965, 1975, 1980, and 1984 84
4 7 Copper s GDP Based Intensity of Use and Per Capita GDP in 1980
in Selected Developing Countries: A Comparison of Figures De¬
rived by Conventional GDP Measurement and Measurement of GDP
Based on Purchasing Power Parity 85
4 8 GDP Based Intensity of Use for Major Metals in Yugoslavia, South
Korea, Argentina, and the Philippines: Rank Among Fourteen Sam¬
ple Countries, 1980 85
4 9 Development Strategy and GDP Based Intensity of Use of Copper
in Eleven Developing Countries, 1980 86
4 10 Imports of Fabricated Copper and Copper Alloy Products, in Per¬
cent of Reported Copper Consumption, by Eleven Developing
Countries, 1967 to 1987 88
4 11 Metal Consumption in Brazil, India, and South Korea, 1987 92
4 12 Per Capita GDP and GDP Based Intensity of Use in Brazil, India,
and South Korea: 1965, 1975, and 1986 93
4 13 Major Nonferrous Metals in Brazil in Selected Years, 1965 1987:
Production Minus Consumption, in Percent of Consumption 98
4 14 Ratios Between Indian and International Prices of Major Nonferrous
Metals, 1972 to 1985 105
LIST OF TABLES XV
5 1 Growth in Metal Consumption in the CMEA 7, CMEA 6, and
USSR: Average Annual Rate of Change, 1960 1973, 1973 1979,
and 1979 1987 115
5 2 Elasticity Parameter Values of CMEA Metal Consumption, 1960
1984 119
5 3 Changes in GDP and Intensity of Use in the CMEA Countries:
Average Annual Rate of Change, 1960 1973, 1973 1979, and 1979
1987 121
5 4 Determinants of Shortfall in Metal Consumption, 1973 1987 123
5 5 Composition of GNP by Sectors of Origin (in constant prices),
1970, 1975, 1980, and 1982 129
5 6 Total Gross Investment in CMEA Countries: Annual Percentage
Change in Real Terms, 1970 1987 130
5 7 Share of Metal Intensive Subsectors of Four CMEA Countries in
Total Manufacturing Value Added, 1973 1975 and 1983 1985 131
5 8 Average Number of Years in CMEA 7 and Western Countries Re¬
quired to Increase the Share of Continuously Cast Steel in Total
Crude Steel Production by One Percentage Point, 1974 1979 and
1979 1987 136
5 9 Recovery Ratios for Iron and Steel in Selected CMEA Countries,
1971 1973, 1977 1979, and 1982 1984 138
5 10 Total Change in Intensity of Use in CMEA Countries Between 1979
and 1987 139
5 11 Intensity of Use for the CMEA and Selected Third World Countries
in 1960, 1973, and 1987, as a Percentage of the Average IU of the
OECD Countries 142
5 12 Regression Results for Steel Consumption in CMEA and Western
Countries, 1980 148
5 13 Actual and Forecasted Steel Consumption in the CMEA 7 Coun¬
tries, 1980 749
5 14 Regression Results on Aluminum Consumption in CMEA and
Western Countries, 1980 151
5 15 Actual and Forecasted Aluminum Consumption in the CMEA 7
Countries, 1980 152
6 1 Share of the Motor Vehicle Industry in Total U.S. Consumption of
Selected Metals, 1960 1987 162
6 2 World Production of Motor Vehicles, 1960 1988 163
6 3 Growth Rates of Material Consumption by the Passenger Car Indus¬
try, of Car Production, and of Pounds of Material per Car in the
Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, and the United States, 1960
1986 166
6 4 Imports as a Share of Domestic Sales of Passenger Cars in the
Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, and the United States, 1960
1988 172
xvi LIST OF TABLES
6 5 Median Life of Selected West German Cars in Sweden, 1965
1980 172
6 6 Producer Price Index for Passenger Cars and Typical Operating
Costs for Car Owners in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1970
1985 175
6 7 Japanese Car Exports to the United States, 1960 1988 179
6 8 Various Costs of Vehicle Ownership in the United States, 1967
1988 183
6 9 Changes in the Number of Pounds of Material per Car and Percent¬
age of Those Changes Attributable to Changes in Average Car
Weight and Material Composition, 1960 1986 187
6 10 Average Fuel Economy for New Passenger Cars in the Federal
Republic of Germany, Japan, and the United States, 1970
1988 790
6 11 World Rates of Growth for Steel and Aluminum Consumption, Car
Industry Consumption of These Metals, Car Production, and Pounds
of Steel and Aluminum per Car, 1960 1985 205
6 A l Passenger Car Production Data for the Federal Republic of Ger¬
many, 1960 1986 209
6 A 2 Passenger Car Production Data for Japan, 1967 1986 211
6 A 3 Passenger Car Production Data for the United States, 1960
1986 212
6 A 4 World Consumption of Steel and Aluminum in the Production of
Passenger Cars, 1960 1986 214
1 1 Cost Structure of Aluminum and Tinplate Can Manufacturing and
Glass and PET Bottle Manufacturing, 1985 224
7 2 Costs of Filled Beverage Containers, 1985 226
7 3 Apparent Determinants of Aluminum Consumption in Beer Con¬
tainers, 1964 1987 231
7 4 Apparent Determinants of Aluminum Consumption in Soft Drink
Containers, 1967 1987 232
7 5 Materials Substitution and the Beverage Container Industry in Se¬
lected Countries in Western Europe, 1985 1988 241
7 6 Metal Consumption and the Japanese Beer and Soft Drink Indus¬
tries, 1971 1985 245
1 1 Production of Various Containers for the Japanese Soft Drink Indus¬
try, 1978 1985 246
7 8 Metal Consumption and the Canadian Beer Industry, Selected
Years 247
7 9 Metal Consumption and the Canadian Soft Drink Industry, Selected
Years 248
7 10 Penetration of Cans in the Beverage Industry in the United States,
Western Europe, Japan, and Canada, 1985 1988 251
LIST OF TABLES xvii
Statistical Appendix Tables
Part A. Macroeconomic Data
A l Gross Domestic Product, 1960 1987 271
A 2 Gross Domestic Investment, 1960 1987 275
A 3 Manufacturing, 1960 1986 278
A 4 Services, 1960 1986 281
Part B. Metal Consumption Data
B l Crude Steel, 1960 1987 284
B 2 Primary Aluminum, 1960 1988 287
B 3 Refined Copper, 1960 1988 290
B 4 Refined Lead, 1960 1988 293
B 5 Zinc, 1960 1988 296
B 6 Nickel, 1960 1987 299
B 7 Tin, 1962 1988 302
Part C. Intensity of Metal Use
C l Crude Steel, 1960 1987 305
C 2 Primary Aluminum, 1960 1987 308
C 3 Refined Copper, 1960 1987 311
C 4 Refined Lead, 1960 1987 314
C 5 Zinc, 1960 1987 317
C 6 Nickel, 1960 1987 320
C 7 Tin, 1962 1987 323
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| id | DE-604.BV004662330 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:15:45Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 091570756X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002864014 |
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| physical | XXII, 341 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1990 |
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| publishDateSort | 1990 |
| publisher | Resources for the Future |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | World metal demand trends and prospects John E. Tilton, ed. Washington, DC Resources for the Future 1990 XXII, 341 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Metal trade Steel industry and trade Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd rswk-swf Bedarf (DE-588)4005172-9 gnd rswk-swf Metallweltmarkt (DE-588)4038928-5 gnd rswk-swf Metall (DE-588)4038860-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 s Metall (DE-588)4038860-8 s Bedarf (DE-588)4005172-9 s DE-604 Metallweltmarkt (DE-588)4038928-5 s Tilton, John E. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002864014&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | World metal demand trends and prospects Metal trade Steel industry and trade Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Bedarf (DE-588)4005172-9 gnd Metallweltmarkt (DE-588)4038928-5 gnd Metall (DE-588)4038860-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4005172-9 (DE-588)4038928-5 (DE-588)4038860-8 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | World metal demand trends and prospects |
| title_auth | World metal demand trends and prospects |
| title_exact_search | World metal demand trends and prospects |
| title_full | World metal demand trends and prospects John E. Tilton, ed. |
| title_fullStr | World metal demand trends and prospects John E. Tilton, ed. |
| title_full_unstemmed | World metal demand trends and prospects John E. Tilton, ed. |
| title_short | World metal demand |
| title_sort | world metal demand trends and prospects |
| title_sub | trends and prospects |
| topic | Metal trade Steel industry and trade Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Bedarf (DE-588)4005172-9 gnd Metallweltmarkt (DE-588)4038928-5 gnd Metall (DE-588)4038860-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Metal trade Steel industry and trade Weltwirtschaft Bedarf Metallweltmarkt Metall Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002864014&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tiltonjohne worldmetaldemandtrendsandprospects |