Modelling for population and sustainable development:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London u.a.
Routledge
1991
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 261 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0415061873 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modelling for population and sustainable development |c ed. by A. J. Gilbert ... |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a London u.a. |b Routledge |c 1991 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 261 S. |b zahlr. graph. Darst. | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Duurzame ontwikkeling |2 gtt | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Economische planning |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Politique démographique - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Nachhaltigkeit | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Umwelt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftsentwicklung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic development |x Environmental aspects |x Mathematical models |v Congresses | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population policy |x Mathematical models |v Congresses | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804118775674437632 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
List of figures and tables x
Preface xv
1 INTRODUCTION: ISSUES AND
PERSPECTIVES 1
A.J.Gilbert
Parti: ECCO
2 INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS: THE
CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE 11
U. E. Loening
3 THE ECCO APPROACH TO PLANNING
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 18
J. King
4 PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT 36
M. Slesser
Part II: ECCO pilot studies
5 THE INTEGRATED APPROACH TO LONG
TERM RESOURCE PLANNING AND
NATIONAL CARRYING CAPACITY
ASSESSMENT FOR THAILAND 69
C. Sintunawa
vii
CONTENTS
6 EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED NATIONAL WELFARE IN
MAURITIUS USING ECCO ECONOMIC
CO ORDINATION MODEL 95
J. Baguant and M. Slesser
I MODELLING FOR POPULATION AND
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN
KENYA 126
B. K. Njoka
Part III: Future ECCO applications
8 NATIONAL STUDIES 139
8.1. Research on population and sustainable development
in China 139
Li Wenhua
8.2. Introduction to the Zimbabwe carrying capacity
assessment project 143
A. M. Ruboko
8.3. Integration of population, resources and environment 154
P. Twagiramutara
9 SECTORAL STUDY EXPLORING THE
POTENTIAL OF CARRYING CAPACITY
ASSESSMENT, POPULATION GROWTH
AND SELF SUFFICIENCY IN KENYA
USING ECCO 159
J. D. Owino
Part IV: Other modelling approaches
10 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 169
L. C. Braat
II ECONOMIC MODELLING AND
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 191
J. B. Opschoor
12 ENERGY IN MODELS FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT 211
J. Peet
viii
CONTENTS
13 PAST AND POSSIBLE FUTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE FAO AEZ
METHODOLOGY TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE ECCO MODEL 230
J. Antoine
14 THE DEMOGRAPHIC APPROACH 237
W.Lutz
15 EVALUATIONS, CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS 243
A.J.Gilbert
Annex: List of participants at the seminar/workshop on
Modelling for Population and Sustainable Development 251
Index 254
ix
FIGURES AND TABLES
FIGURES
Figure 3.1 Predictions of the international price of crude
oil (1980 = 100). Schrattenholzer and Manne
(1984) 30
Figure 4.1 Influence diagram of industrial growth cycle 40
Figure 4.2 Model of an economy, after Gilliland 45
Figure 4.3 Influence diagram for ECCO (principal
elements) 48
Figure 4.4 Influence diagram of the manufacturing
sector of BRITECCO (numbers are in billion
1980 £ in the year 1974) 51
Figure 4.5 Comparision between BRITECCO and actual
data, 1974—84. Operational goods output,
capital stock dwellings and services output 62
Figure 5.1 The population and trade balance loop 81
Figure 5.2 The forest agriculture and standard of living
loops 83
Figure 5.3 Causal relations of agricultural activities 84
Figure 5.4 Causal relations of debt sector 86
Figure 5.5 Causal relations of tourist service sector 87
Figure 5.6 Causal relations in the industrial sector 89
Figure 5.7 Feedback population (P), sustainable
populations from food (FPOPS1) 91
Figure 5.8 Relations of feedback population (P), net
growth rate (NGR) and death rate (DR) 92
Figure 6.1 Causal loop diagram 100
Figure 6.2 Output of reference profile 106
Figure 10.1 Population model 173
x
FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 10.2 Predator prey 174
Figure 10.3 Food for cattle 174
Figure 10.4 Rainfall as driving variable 175
Figure 10.5 Food alternatives for cattle 176
Figure 10.6 Man in the ecological foodweb 176
Figure 10.7 Influenceof rainfall on grazing capacity 179
Figure 10.8 Influence of stocking rate on grazing
capacity 180
Figure 10.9 Influence of grazing capacity on birth rate 181
Figure 10.10 Influenceof grazing capacity on death rate 182
Figure 10.11 Structure of the model 183
Figure 10.12 Historical simulation (1966 86) 184
Figure 10.13 Cattle and range development 1986 2086
with average 8 per cent (+/ 2 per cent)
off take per year 186
Figure 10.14 Cattle and range development 1986 2086
with average 10 per cent (+/— 2 per cent)
off take per year 187
Figure 10.15 Cattle development 1986 2086 on 57,520
km2 added grazing land with average
potential carrying capacity of 12.5 188
Figure 10.16 Catde development 1986 2086 on 57,520
km2 added grazing land with average
potential carrying capacity of 13.5 188
Figure 11.1 Resource regeneration system between
economy and ecosystem 194
Figure 11.2 Regeneration function renewable resource 195
Figure 11.3 Resources utilisation space (after Siebert
1982) 195
Figure 14.1 The basic model of population change over
time 238
Figure 14.2 Observed and projected age structural
changes of women, 1950 2025. UN
Population Division 240
TABLES
Table 3.1 Kenya: population and income per capita
in 2000 24
Table 3.2 The effect of population growth on selected
variables 25
xi
FIGURES AND TABLES
Table 3.3 Some features of existing approaches to
measuring national carrying capacity 29
Table 4.1 The energy requirements of copper by ore
grade 42
Table 4.2 BRITECCO Reference Profile to 1997,
starting 1974 53
Table 4.3 Values of outputs in 1984 compared with
actual 57
Table 4.4 1997 outcome of Reference Profile
comparison between 1974 and 1984 model
initialisation dates 60
Table 5.1 Energy inputs in each activity of maize
cultivation 72
Table 5.2 Direct and indirect energy uses in selected
cases of maize cultivation 73
Table 6.1 Inputs in Mauritius from published SNA for
1983 98
Table 6.2 MECCO Reference Profile 1985 rupees 105
Table 6.3 MECCO Reference Profile GJ 106
Table6.4 MECCO Policy Run PI: reducing population
growth 109
Table 6.5 MECCO Policy Run P2: improved goal
nutritional level 110
Table 6.6 MECCO Policy Run P3: intensify sugar and
release land 111
Table 6.7 MECCO Policy Run P4: investment to
improve Bagasse electricity 112
Table 6.8 MECCO Policy Run P5: improved cane
harvest and transport 113
Table 6.9 MECCO Policy Run P6: EPZ grows at 7.5%
annually 114
Table 6.10 MECCO Policy Run P7: reduce water
wastage 115
Table 6.11 MECCO Policy Run P8: tourist increases to
500,000 116
TabU 6.12 MECCO Policy Run P9: forest plantation
programme 117
TabU 6.13 MECCO Combined Policy Run Cl 119
TabU6.14 MECCO Combined Policy Run C2 120
TabU6.15 MECCO Combined Policy Run C3 121
TabU 6.16 MECCO Combined Policy Run C4 122
xii
FIGURES AND TABLES
Table 6.17 MECCO Combined Policy Run C5 123
Table 7.1 Energy requirements, 1985 2000 ( 000 tons) 134
Table 8.1 Food grain production: commercial farm
sector versus communal farm sector
(1970 1983) 145
Table 8.2 Sectoral contribution to GDP (at constant 1980
prices) 147
Table 10.1 National cattle herd dynamics 181
Table 12.1 End use sectors and examples 219
Table 12.2 Total primary energy intensities 221
Table 12.3 Total energy requirements, PJ 226
Table 15.1 Technical evaluation of ECCO 244
Table 15.2 Procedural guideline for new ECCO studies 248
xiii
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| spelling | Modelling for population and sustainable development ed. by A. J. Gilbert ... 1. publ. London u.a. Routledge 1991 XVII, 261 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Bevolking gtt Duurzame ontwikkeling gtt Développement économique - Aspect de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Economische planning gtt Politique démographique - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Mathematisches Modell Nachhaltigkeit Umwelt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Economic development Environmental aspects Mathematical models Congresses Population policy Mathematical models Congresses Sustainable development Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 1987 Soest, Utrecht, Provinz gnd-content Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 s Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s DE-604 Gilbert, A. J. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002860654&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Modelling for population and sustainable development Bevolking gtt Duurzame ontwikkeling gtt Développement économique - Aspect de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Economische planning gtt Politique démographique - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Mathematisches Modell Nachhaltigkeit Umwelt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Economic development Environmental aspects Mathematical models Congresses Population policy Mathematical models Congresses Sustainable development Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4129300-9 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4014954-7 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Modelling for population and sustainable development |
| title_auth | Modelling for population and sustainable development |
| title_exact_search | Modelling for population and sustainable development |
| title_full | Modelling for population and sustainable development ed. by A. J. Gilbert ... |
| title_fullStr | Modelling for population and sustainable development ed. by A. J. Gilbert ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling for population and sustainable development ed. by A. J. Gilbert ... |
| title_short | Modelling for population and sustainable development |
| title_sort | modelling for population and sustainable development |
| topic | Bevolking gtt Duurzame ontwikkeling gtt Développement économique - Aspect de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Economische planning gtt Politique démographique - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Mathematisches Modell Nachhaltigkeit Umwelt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Economic development Environmental aspects Mathematical models Congresses Population policy Mathematical models Congresses Sustainable development Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevolking Duurzame ontwikkeling Développement économique - Aspect de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Economische planning Politique démographique - Modèles mathématiques - Congrès Mathematisches Modell Nachhaltigkeit Umwelt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Economic development Environmental aspects Mathematical models Congresses Population policy Mathematical models Congresses Sustainable development Bevölkerungswachstum Entwicklungsländer Konferenzschrift 1987 Soest, Utrecht, Provinz |
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