Econometric models and economic forecasts:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
McGraw-Hill
1981
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXII, 630 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0070500967 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Econometric models and economic forecasts |c Robert S. Pindyck ; Daniel L. Rubinfeld |
| 250 | |a 2. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a New York [u.a.] |b McGraw-Hill |c 1981 | |
| 300 | |a XXII, 630 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Econometría | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Wiskundige modellen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Économétrie | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Econometrics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic forecasting |x Econometric models | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804118042899120128 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Preface
xi
Introduction
xiii
Part
1
Single-Equation Regression Models
1
Introduction to the Regression Model
з
1.1
Curve Fitting
3
1.2
Derivation of Least Squares
8
Appendix LI The Use of Summation Operators
13
Appendix
1.2
Derivation of Least-Squares Parameter Estimates
16
2
Elementary Statistics: A Review
19
2.1
Random Variables
19
2.2
Estimation
24
2.3
Desirable Properties of Estimators
27
2.4
Probability Distributions
31
2.5
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals
36
Appendix
2.1
The Properties of the Expectations Operator
40
3
The Two-Variable Regression Model
46
3.1
The Model
46
3.2
Best Linear Unbiased Estimation
51
3.3
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals
55
3.4
Analysis of Variance and Correlation
61
Appendix
3.1
Variance of the Least-Squares Slope Estimator
68
Appendix
3.2
Maximum-Ukelihood Estimation
69
Appendix
3.3
Some Properties Relating to the Least-Squares
Residuila
71
ТІЙ
CONTENTS
4
The Multiple Regression Model
75
4.1
The Model
75
4.2
Regression Interpretation and Statistics
77
4.3
F
Tests,
R
2, and Corrected
Rz
78
4.4
Multicollinearity
87
4.5
Beta Coefficients and Elasticities
90
4.6
Partial Correlation and Stepwise Regression
91
Appendix
4.1
Least-Squares Parameter Estimation
96
Appendix
4.2
Partial Regression Coefficients
97
Appendix
4.3
The Multiple Regression Model in Matrix Form
99
5
Using the Multiple Regression Model
107
5.1
The General Linear Model
107
5.2
Use of Dummy Variables
111
5.3
The use of
t
Tests and
F
Tests for Hypotheses Involving More
than One Parameter
116
5.4
Piecewise Linear Regression
126
5.5
Specification Error
128
5.6
The Multiple Regression Model with Stochastic Explanatory
Variables
134
Appendix
5.1
Tests Involving Dummy Variable Coefficients
135
6
Serial Correlation and Heteroscedasticity
139
6.1
Heteroscedasticity
140
6.2
Serial Correlation
152
Appendix
6.1
Generalized Least-Squares Estimation
164
7
Instrumental Variables and Two-Stage Least
Squares
174
7.1
Correlation between an Independent Variable and the Error Term
175
7.2
Errors in Variables
176
7.3
Introduction to Simultaneous Equation Models
180
7.4
Consistent Parameter Estimation
184
7.5
The Identification Problem
186
7.6
Two-Stage Least Squares
191
7.7
Serial Correlation in the Presence of Lagged Dependent Variables
193
Appendix
7.1
Instrumental-Variables Estimation in Matrix Form
199
8
Forecasting with a Single-Equation
Regression Model
203
8.1
Unconditional Forecasting
206
8.2
Forecasting with Serially Correlated Errors
215
8.3
Conditional Forecasting
221
Appendix
8.1
Forecasting with the Mtdtivariate Regression Model
224
9
Single-Equation Estimation: Advanced Topics
230
9.1
Distributed Lags
231
92
Missing Observations
245
9.3
Pooling of Cross-Section end Tune-Series
Dat* 2S2
CONTENTS
ЇХ
9.4
Nonlinear Estimation
261
Appendix
9.1
Estimating
Confidence
Intervals for Long-Run
Elasticities
269
10
Models of Qualitative Choice
273
10.1
Binary-Choice Models
274
10.2
Multiple-Choice Models
301
Appendix
10.1
Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of the
Logi t
and
Probit
Models
310
Part
2
Multi-Equation Simulation Models
11
Simultaneous-Equation Estimation
319
11.1
Types of Equation Systems
320
11.2
The Identification Problem
324
11.3
Single-Equation Estimation
328
11.4
Estimation of Equation Systems
331
11.5
Comparison of Alternative Estimators
338
Appendix II. The Identification Problem in Matrix Form
339
Appendix
11.2
Two-Stage Least Squares in Matrix Form
344
Appendix
11.3 Zellner
Estimation in Matrix Form
347
Appendix
11.4
Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Equation
Systems
349
12
Introduction to Simulation Models
354
12.1
The Simulation Process
356
12.2
Evaluating Simulation Models
360
12.3
A Simulation Example
367
12.4
Model Estimation
374
12.5
Other Kinds of Multi-Equation Simulation Models
378
13
Dynamic Behavior of Simulation Models
382
13.1
Model Behavior: Stability and Oscillations
383
13.2
Model Behavior: Multipliers and Dynamic Response
391
13.3
Tuning and Adjusting Simulation Models
401
í
3.4
Stochastic Simulation
405
14
Examples of Simulation Models
414
14.1
A Small Macroeconometric Model
415
14.2
An Industry-Wide Econometric Model
440
14.3
Simulation Models for Corporate Financial Planning
447
Appendix
14.1
Estimation Method and Data Series for
the Macroeconometric Model
456
Part
3
Time-Series Models
15
Smoothing and Extrapolation of Time Series
473
15.J
Simple
Extrapolation Models
473
15-2
Smoothing and Seasonal Adjustment
484
% CONTENTS
16
Properties of Stochastic Time Series
493
16.1
Introduction to Stochastic Time-Series Models
494
16.2
Stationary and. Nonstationary Time Series
497
Appendix
16.1
The Autocorrelation Function for a Stationary
Process
511
17
Linear Time-Series Models
514
17.1
Moving Average Models
515
172
Autoregressive
Models
519
173
Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models
526
17.4
Homogeneous Nonstationary Processes: ARIMA Models
529
17.5
Specification of ARIMA Models
531
Appendix
17.1
Stationarity, Irmertibility, and Homogeneity
535
18
Estimation of Time-Series Models
539
18.1
The Estimation Procedure
541
18.2
Diagnostic Checking
548
Appendix
18.1
Initialization of the Time Series
ЪЪ1
19
Forecasting with Time-Series Models
555
19.1
Minimum Mean Square Error Forecast
556
19.2
Computing a Forecast
557
193
The Forecast Error
558
19.4
Forecast Confidence Intervals
559
19.5
Properties of ARIMA Forecasts
561
19.6
Two Examples
568
20
Applications of Time-Series Models
574
20.1
Review of the Modeling Process
575
20.2
Models of Economic Variables: Inventory Investment
577
203
Forecasting Seasonal Telephone Data
589
20.4
Combining Regression Analysis with a Time-Series Model:
Transfer Function Models
593
20.5
A Combined Regression-Time-Series Model to Forecast
Interest Rates
595
20.6
A Combined Regression-Time-Series Model to Forecast
Short-Term Savings Deposit Flows
601
Statistical Tables
бое
Solutions
to Selected Problems 612
Indexes
621
Subject Index
Name Index
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Pindyck, Robert S. 1945- Rubinfeld, Daniel L. |
| author_GND | (DE-588)128956399 (DE-588)12895633X |
| author_facet | Pindyck, Robert S. 1945- Rubinfeld, Daniel L. |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Pindyck, Robert S. 1945- |
| author_variant | r s p rs rsp d l r dl dlr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV003698091 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB3730 |
| callnumber-raw | HB3730 |
| callnumber-search | HB3730 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 43730 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| classification_rvk | QH 300 |
| classification_tum | WIR 055f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)6250887 (DE-599)BVBBV003698091 |
| dewey-full | 330/.01/5195 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330/.01/5195 |
| dewey-search | 330/.01/5195 |
| dewey-sort | 3330 11 45195 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
| era | Prognose gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose |
| format | Book |
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| genre | 1\p (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Einführung |
| id | DE-604.BV003698091 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:04:01Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0070500967 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002353843 |
| oclc_num | 6250887 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-384 DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-83 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-384 DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-83 DE-188 |
| physical | XXII, 630 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1981 |
| publishDateSearch | 1981 |
| publishDateSort | 1981 |
| publisher | McGraw-Hill |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Pindyck, Robert S. 1945- Verfasser (DE-588)128956399 aut Econometric models and economic forecasts Robert S. Pindyck ; Daniel L. Rubinfeld 2. ed. New York [u.a.] McGraw-Hill 1981 XXII, 630 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Prognose gnd rswk-swf Econometrie gtt Econometría Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Wiskundige modellen gtt Économétrie Ökonometrisches Modell Econometrics Economic forecasting Econometric models Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd rswk-swf Regressionsmodell (DE-588)4127980-3 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Diskette (DE-588)4122115-1 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s DE-604 Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s Diskette (DE-588)4122115-1 s 2\p DE-604 Regressionsmodell (DE-588)4127980-3 s 3\p DE-604 Prognose z 4\p DE-604 Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 s 5\p DE-604 Rubinfeld, Daniel L. Verfasser (DE-588)12895633X aut Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002353843&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 4\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 5\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Pindyck, Robert S. 1945- Rubinfeld, Daniel L. Econometric models and economic forecasts Econometrie gtt Econometría Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Wiskundige modellen gtt Économétrie Ökonometrisches Modell Econometrics Economic forecasting Econometric models Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd Regressionsmodell (DE-588)4127980-3 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Diskette (DE-588)4122115-1 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4125215-9 (DE-588)4127980-3 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4122115-1 (DE-588)4043212-9 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4132280-0 (DE-588)4151278-9 |
| title | Econometric models and economic forecasts |
| title_auth | Econometric models and economic forecasts |
| title_exact_search | Econometric models and economic forecasts |
| title_full | Econometric models and economic forecasts Robert S. Pindyck ; Daniel L. Rubinfeld |
| title_fullStr | Econometric models and economic forecasts Robert S. Pindyck ; Daniel L. Rubinfeld |
| title_full_unstemmed | Econometric models and economic forecasts Robert S. Pindyck ; Daniel L. Rubinfeld |
| title_short | Econometric models and economic forecasts |
| title_sort | econometric models and economic forecasts |
| topic | Econometrie gtt Econometría Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Wiskundige modellen gtt Économétrie Ökonometrisches Modell Econometrics Economic forecasting Econometric models Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd Regressionsmodell (DE-588)4127980-3 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Diskette (DE-588)4122115-1 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Econometrie Econometría Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Wiskundige modellen Économétrie Ökonometrisches Modell Econometrics Economic forecasting Econometric models Prognosemodell Regressionsmodell Wirtschaft Prognose Diskette Mathematisches Modell Ökonometrie Einführung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002353843&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pindyckroberts econometricmodelsandeconomicforecasts AT rubinfelddaniell econometricmodelsandeconomicforecasts |