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Educated guessing: how to cope in an uncertain world

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Kotz, Samuel 1930-2010 (Author), Stroup, D. (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English
Published:	New York u.a. Dekker 1983
Series:	Popular statistics 2.
Subjects:	Besliskunde Informatietheorie Onzekerheid Probabilités Statistiek Statistique Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) Statistik Probabilities Statistics Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie Entscheidungstheorie
Online Access:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Physical Description:	VI, 187 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	0824770005

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adam_text	CONTENTS Preface iii Chapter 1 Assessing Probabilities 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Probability Then and Now 3 1.3 The Law of Averages 6 1.4 The Language of Probability 8 1.5 Subjective Probability and Odds 18 Chapter 2 Reassessing Probabilities 30 2.1 Conditional Probability and Independence 30 2.2 Bayes Rule 43 2.3 The Art of Asking Questions 51 Chapter 3 Controlling Uncertainty 60 3.1 Expectation of Random Variables 60 3.2 Games of Chance 69 3.3 Lotteries 84 Chapter 4 Information Theory 90 4.1 Information as Communication 90 4.2 Entropy 91 4.3 Mutual Information 96 4.4 Applications of Information 103 vi Contents Chapter 5 Decision Making in Uncertainty 109 5.1 The Structure of the Problem 109 5.2 Minimax Strategies 115 5.3 Bayesian Decision Making 119 5.4 Randomized Decision Rules 124 5.5 Statistical Hypothesis Testing 133 Appendix A Paradoxes of Probability 143 A.1 Nontransitivity Paradox 143 A.2 Pairwise-Worst-Best Paradox 146 A.3 Clocking Paradox 148 A.4 Simpson s Paradox 148 A.5 Pitfalls of Equal Probability 154 Appendix B Tables 159 B.I Probabilities in Rolling Two Fair Dice 159 B.2 Rank Order Distribution of Five- Card Poker Hands 160 B.3 Craps Bets: Odds and House Percentages 160 B.4 Values of -p log2 (p) 161 Appendix C Answers to Selected Exercises 164 Postscript 173 Bibliography 175 Author Index 183 Subject Index 185
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indexdate	2024-07-09T16:00:04Z
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isbn	0824770005
language	English
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spelling	Kotz, Samuel 1930-2010 Verfasser (DE-588)119529653 aut Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world Samuel Kotz ; Donna F. Stroup* New York u.a. Dekker 1983 VI, 187 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Popular statistics 2. Besliskunde gtt Informatietheorie gtt Onzekerheid gtt Probabilités Statistiek gtt Statistique Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) gtt Statistik Probabilities Statistics Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 s DE-604 Stroup, D. Verfasser aut Popular statistics 2. (DE-604)BV001892950 2. HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002182178&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis
spellingShingle	Kotz, Samuel 1930-2010 Stroup, D. Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world Popular statistics Besliskunde gtt Informatietheorie gtt Onzekerheid gtt Probabilités Statistiek gtt Statistique Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) gtt Statistik Probabilities Statistics Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4079013-7 (DE-588)4138606-1
title	Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world
title_auth	Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world
title_exact_search	Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world
title_full	Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world Samuel Kotz ; Donna F. Stroup*
title_fullStr	Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world Samuel Kotz ; Donna F. Stroup*
title_full_unstemmed	Educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world Samuel Kotz ; Donna F. Stroup*
title_short	Educated guessing
title_sort	educated guessing how to cope in an uncertain world
title_sub	how to cope in an uncertain world
topic	Besliskunde gtt Informatietheorie gtt Onzekerheid gtt Probabilités Statistiek gtt Statistique Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) gtt Statistik Probabilities Statistics Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd
topic_facet	Besliskunde Informatietheorie Onzekerheid Probabilités Statistiek Statistique Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) Statistik Probabilities Statistics Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie Entscheidungstheorie
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002182178&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
volume_link	(DE-604)BV001892950
work_keys_str_mv	AT kotzsamuel educatedguessinghowtocopeinanuncertainworld AT stroupd educatedguessinghowtocopeinanuncertainworld

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