Formal methods in policy formulation: The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Basel
Birkhäuser
1978
|
| Series: | Interdisciplinary systems research.
49. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XI, 237 S. graph.Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3764309717 |
Staff View
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| adam_text | CONTENTS Preface Contributor Affiliations Contents PART I Ana 1ytical Methods in Policy Formulation I. The Field of Policy Analysis by Derek W. Bunn and Howard Thomas I The Characteristics of Policy Formulation II Decision Analysis and Polioy III The Adaptation of Decision Analysis to the Polioy Context 2. What Can Cost-Benefit Analysis Learn From Decision Analysis? by Alan Wi11iams I Introduction II Decisions andDecision Makers III Some Apparently Belevont Information From Decision Theory IV Some Corresponding Material From Public Finance Theory V The Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis VI Risk Aversion in the Public Sector: The Syndicate VII Risk Aversion in the Public Sector: The Arbitrator VIII Conflict and Confusion Costs IX Conclusions 3. Methodologies for Facility Siting Decisions by Gregory B. Baecher, Jacques C. Gross and Karen McCusker I II I 11 IV Introduction Siting and Public Decision-Making 1 The Siting Process 2 Social Veifare and Selectivity 3 Siting vs. Planning Decisions 4 Coalitions and Equity 5 Temporal Distribution of Impacts and Irreversibilities Appendix: Pareto Admissibility under Uncertainty Structure of Evaluation Methodologies 1 Objectives 2 Attributes 3 Objective Functions A Assessment A Market Approaches В Direct Assessment C Combined Approaches Appendix: Measurement Theory Cost-Benefit 1 Equity 2 Uncertainty
V VI VI I Matrix Approaches 1 Lichfield з Planning Balance Sheet 2 Goals-Achievement Matrix 3 Environmental Impact Matrix 4 Въб4ор s Factor Profile 5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Matrix Methods Prefemce Theories 1 Value and Utility Functions 2 The Utility-Based Decision Model 3 Form of the Utility Function 4 Application 5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Preference Methods Appendix A: Utility Assessment Appendix B: Axioms of Utility Theory Conclusions PART 2 The Implementation of the Decision Analysis Approach in Policy Formulation 4. Problems in the Application of Decision Analytic Methods to Policy Formulation by Derek W. Bunn and Howard Thomas I Iі І іI IV V 5. Introduction Screening 1 First Degree Stochatic Dominance 2 Second Degree Stochastic Dominance 3 Third Degree Stochastic Dominance Probability Assessment 1 The Estimation of the Probability of a Realisable Propostion 1.1 Representativeness I .2 Availability I.3 Adjustment and Anchoring 2 Estimation of the Subjective Probability Distribution 3 Estimation of Some Common Prior Distributions 3.1 The Normal PDF 3.2 The Beta PDF 3.3 The Inverse Gamma PDF 3.4 The Dirichlet PDF 3.5 The Inverted Wishart PDF 4 Wider Issues Consensus and Expert Resolution Structuring and Optimisation Under Multiple Conflicting Objectives Choosing the Dimensions and Uncertainties of an Evaluation by Philip Byer and Richard de Neufville I I ! II I IV V VI VII VIII IX Introduction Evaluation Techniques The Need for Assumptions The Choice of Assumptions Screening Models Screening Coefficients Case Study: Seismic Building Codes References
Appendix
6. Assessing Technological Advancement Using Groups of Experts by Alvin J. Harman and S. James Press I I I III IV 7. Collection of Expert Group Judgement Data: Survey Design Considerations 1.1 Existence of Expertise 1.2 Identification of a Panel of Experts 1.3 Procedural Issues I Λ Instrument Design Quantification and Analysis of Expert Group Data 2.1 Multidimensional Scaling of Individual Differences 2.2 Subjective Probability Methods 2.3 Categorical-Dependent-Variable Multivariate Regression Discussion and Summary Bibliography Multiple Criteria Optimisation J An. Exterior Branching Algorithm by Jean-Pierre and Bertil Näslund I I I. I The Multiple Criteria Problem 1.2 Some Previous Work 1.3 Exterior Branching 1 .h Concluding Discussion 1.5 References Integer Linear Programming with Multiple Objectives by Stanley Zionts 2.1 2.2 2.3 2Λ 2.5 2.6 2.7 Introduction Some Consideations for Solving Multiple Criteria Integer Problems Adapting the Zionts—Wallenius Method For Solving Integer Programming Problems A Branch and Bound Approach Discussion Appendix References Use of Multidimensional Utility Functions in Hazardous Shipment Decisions by Robert E. Brooks and Ashok S. Kalei kar I I I I 11 IV Introduction General Approach Theoretical Formulation Discussion Automating Decision Making for the Diagnosis Problem by Ray Tremolieres I I I I I I IV V VI VI I VIII Introduction The Medical Problem The Logical Problem The Probabilistic Problem Comments Applications References Bibliography
10. Planning Wildfire Protection for the Santa Monica Mountains: An Economic Analysis of Alternatives by D. Warner North, Fred L. Offensend and Charles N. Smart I Introduction іI Wildfire in the Santa Monica Mountains III An Outline of the Approach IV Evaluating Alternatives for Improved Fire Protection V The Present System of Fire Protection VI Alternative I VII Alternative 2 VIII Alternative 3 IX Sensitivity Analysis X Incentives for Implementing Programmes of Brush Clearance and Roof XI XI I II. Conversion Conclusions References Operational Research and Public Policy by John Stringer I II III IV V VI V!I VIII IX X XI X!I XIII XIV XV XVI Machinery for Policy Making Why all these Changes? Coordination Organisation Change The Dispersal Study Big Models Appraisal of Approaches to Coordination Individual Co-ordinative Behaviour The Unthinkable, and Substantial Change A Cluster of Issues Employment Job Satisfaction Tradeable Goods and Services The Model, OR, and Policy-Making Conclusion References Subject Index
|
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:57:42Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3764309717 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XI, 237 S. graph.Darst. |
| publishDate | 1978 |
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| series | Interdisciplinary systems research. |
| series2 | Interdisciplinary systems research. |
| spelling | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations Hrsg. von Derek W. Bunn* Basel Birkhäuser 1978 XI, 237 S. graph.Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Interdisciplinary systems research. 49. Bayesian statistical decision theory Policy sciences Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmenspolitik (DE-588)4078610-9 gnd rswk-swf Organisationsplanung (DE-588)4121432-8 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmenspolitik (DE-588)4078610-9 s DE-604 Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Organisationsplanung (DE-588)4121432-8 s Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 s Bunn, Derek W. Sonstige oth Interdisciplinary systems research. 49. (DE-604)BV005542384 49. Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002078773&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations Interdisciplinary systems research. Bayesian statistical decision theory Policy sciences Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Unternehmenspolitik (DE-588)4078610-9 gnd Organisationsplanung (DE-588)4121432-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4144220-9 (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4078610-9 (DE-588)4121432-8 |
| title | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations |
| title_auth | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations |
| title_exact_search | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations |
| title_full | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations Hrsg. von Derek W. Bunn* |
| title_fullStr | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations Hrsg. von Derek W. Bunn* |
| title_full_unstemmed | Formal methods in policy formulation The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations Hrsg. von Derek W. Bunn* |
| title_short | Formal methods in policy formulation |
| title_sort | formal methods in policy formulation the application of bayesian decision analysis to the screening structuring optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations |
| title_sub | The application of Bayesian decision analysis to the screening, structuring, optimisation and implementation of policies within complex organisations |
| topic | Bayesian statistical decision theory Policy sciences Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Unternehmenspolitik (DE-588)4078610-9 gnd Organisationsplanung (DE-588)4121432-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bayesian statistical decision theory Policy sciences Entscheidungstheorie Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie Entscheidungsfindung Unternehmenspolitik Organisationsplanung |
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