OPEC and the price of petroleum: theoretical considerations and empirical evidence
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin u.a.
Springer
1989
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Studies in international economics and institutions
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | X, 206 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3540516549 0387516549 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Rauscher, Michael |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a OPEC and the price of petroleum |b theoretical considerations and empirical evidence |c Michael Rauscher |
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| 650 | 7 | |a PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES |2 unbist | |
| 650 | 7 | |a PETROLEUM PRICES |2 unbist | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Produits pétroliers - Prix |2 ram | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS V
LIST OF FIGURES XI
LIST OF TABLES XII
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 1
1.2. PLAN OF THE STUDY 5
2. THE WORLD PETROLEUM MARKET: HISTORY AND INSTITUTIONS
2.1. PETROLEUM AS AN EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE 8
2.1.1. SOME BASIC CONCEPTS 8
2.1.2. MEASUREMENT OF RESERVES 9
2.1.3. THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTION AND RESERVES 10
2.1.4. THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION, AND
RESERVES 11
2.2. THE ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES 13
2.3. THE PRICE OF PETROLEUM 15
2.3.1. LONG-TERM CONTRACTS WITH FIXED PRICES 15
2.3.2. THE SPOT MARKET 16
2.3.3. NETBACK CONTRACTS 18
2.3.4. FUTURES MARKETS FOR CRUDE OIL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 20
2.3.5. PETROLEUM PRICES AND SCARCITY 21
2.4. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE WORLD PETROLEUM MARKET 22
2.4.1. THE OIL MARKET BEFORE OPEC 22
2.4.2. ALTERATION OF PROPERTY RIGHTS 23
2.4.3. NEW CONTRACTUAL RELATIONSHIPS 24
2.4.4. OPEC AND THE OIL PRICE IN THE SEVENTIES AND EIGHTIES: 26
A CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS
2.5. SUMMARY OF SOME STYLISED FACTS 29
HTTP://D-NB.INFO/891418040
VIII
3. THE PRICE OF PETROLEUM IN ECONOMIC THEORY
3.1. TYPES OF OIL MARKET MODELS 31
3.2. THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES 31
3.2.1. THE RICARDIAN APPROACH 32
3.2.2. A SIMPLE MODEL OF EXHAUSTIBILITY 35
3.2.3. DIFFERENT MARKET STRUCTURES 38
3.2.4. THE RESOURCE-EXPORTING COUNTRY 41
3.2.5. UNCERTAINTY 45
3.2.6. TESTING HOTELLING'S MODEL 46
3.3. PARAMETER CHANGES IN THE STANDARD MODEL 47
3.3.1. THE SIZE OF THE RESOURCE STOCK 48
3.3.2. CHANGING PROPERTY RIGHTS 49
3.3.3. CARTELISATION 51
3.3.4. THE BACKSTOP TECHNOLOGY 52
3.3.5. ADDITIONAL VARIABLES 53
3.4. APPROACHES WITHOUT EXHAUSTIBILITY 54
3.4.1. THE IMPACT OF GDP FLUCTUATIONS 54
3.4.2. THE BACKWARD-BENDING SUPPLY CURVE 55
3.4.3. STATIC MONOPOLY THEORY 56 YY
3.4.4. LAGGED DEMAND REACTIONS 58
3.4.5. DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITIES 60
3.4.6. SOME EMPIRICAL MODELS OF OIL PRICE DETERMINATION 62
3.4.7. IS OPEC A CARTEL ? 64
3.5. AN EVALUATION 67
4. AN INTERTEMPORAL MODEL OF OPEC'S PRICING POLICY
4.1. BASIC ASSUMPTIONS 69
4.1.1. CONSUMPTION, FOREIGN ASSETS, AND THE RESOURCE STOCK 69
4.1.2. DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM 71
4.1.3. PETROLEUM SUPPLY FROM NON-OPEC SOURCES 74
4.1.4. THE LITERATURE ON DYNAMIC MONOPOLY MODELS 77
4.2. NECESSARY CONDITIONS OF OPTIMALITY 79
4.3. THE CONSUMPTION PATH 80
4.4. ACCUMULATION OF FOREIGN ASSETS AND THE EXISTENCE OF AN OPTIMAL
SOLUTION 81
IX
4.5. THE PRICE PATH 84
4.5.1. THE LONG-RUN EQUILIBRIUM PRICE 84
4.5.2. THE EFFECTS OF PARAMETER CHANGES 88
4.5.3. SECOND-ORDER CONDITIONS 89
4.5.4. BEHAVIOUR NEAR THE EQUILIBRIUM 92
4.5.5. A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE 97
4.6. THE EQUILIBRIUM IN THE LONG RUN 102
4.7. AN EVALUATION OF THE MODEL AND ITS RESULTS 104
5. A SIMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE MODEL
5.1. THE ASSUMPTIONS 106
5.2. OPTIMALITY CONDITIONS 109
5.3. THE OPTIMAL PRICING POLICY 110
5.3.1. THE LONG-RUN EQUILIBRIUM 111
5.3.2. BEHAVIOUR NEAR THE EQULIBRIUM 114
5.3.3. THE LONG-RUN OPTIMAL PATH 118
5.4. IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND THE OCCURRENCE OF PRICE SHOCKS 121
5.4.1. THE FIRST AND SECOND OIL SHOCKS 122
5.4.2. DECLINING OIL PRICES IN THE EIGHTIES 124
5.4.3. HETEROGENEITY OF OPEC AND ENDOGENOUS PRICE CYCLES 127
5.5. THEORETICAL RESULTS AND THE EMPIRICAL OIL PRICE CYCLE: A COMPARISON
128
6. AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE WORLD PETROLEUM MARKET
6.1. OBJECTIVES OF THE INVESTIGATION 130
6.2. OPEC AND OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS 131
6.2.1. A RULE-OF-THE-THUMB APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE OIL PRICE 131
6.2.2. THE INTERACTION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND 134
6.3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS 137
6.3.1. SPECIFICATION OF EQUATIONS 139
6.3.1.1. DEMAND 139
6.3.1.2. NON-OPEC SUPPLY 143
6.3.1.3. THE PRICE OF PETROLEUM 145
X
6.3.2. ESTIMATION RESULTS 147
6.3.2.1. CONCAVITY AND CONVEXITY 148
6.3.2.2. DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM 150
6.3.2.3. NON-OPEC SUPPLY OF PETROLEUM 155
6.3.2.4. OPEC BEHAVIOUR AND PRICE ADJUSTMENTS 158
6.3.3. SUMMARY OF THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS 160
6.4. OPTIMAL PRICING POLICIES IN THE EMPIRICAL MODEL 161
6.4.1. MISSPECIFICATION OF ADJUSTMENT PROCESSES 161
6.4.2. ADJUSTMENT PROCESSES AND LONG-RUN DEMAND AND SUPPLY FUNCTIONS 164
6.4.3. LONG-RUN EQUILIBRIUM PRICES AND QUANTITIES 166
7. FINAL REMARKS
171
173
174 YY
7.1. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
7.2. A REMARK ON POLICY IMPLICATIONS
7.3. AREAS OF FUTURE RESEARCH
APPENDIX: OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY
176
177
180
A.L. THE PROBLEM
A.2. NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS
A.3. SADDLE POINTS AND THE STABILITY OF OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS
REFERENCES
190 |
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| callnumber-sort | HD 49560.1 O66 R38 41989 |
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| dewey-search | 338.2/3282 20 338.2/3282 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.2 43282 220 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| spelling | Rauscher, Michael Verfasser aut OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence Michael Rauscher Berlin u.a. Springer 1989 X, 206 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Studies in international economics and institutions Zugl.: Konstanz, Univ., Diss., 1989 OPEC unbisn Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole ram Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC (DE-588)75351-8 gnd rswk-swf ECONOMETRIC MODELS unbist PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES unbist PETROLEUM PRICES unbist Produits pétroliers - Prix ram Petroleum products -- Prices Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content OPEC (DE-588)75351-8 b Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 1\p DE-604 DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001564860&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Rauscher, Michael OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence OPEC unbisn Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole ram Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC (DE-588)75351-8 gnd ECONOMETRIC MODELS unbist PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES unbist PETROLEUM PRICES unbist Produits pétroliers - Prix ram Petroleum products -- Prices Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)75351-8 (DE-588)4136831-9 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence |
| title_auth | OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence |
| title_exact_search | OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence |
| title_full | OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence Michael Rauscher |
| title_fullStr | OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence Michael Rauscher |
| title_full_unstemmed | OPEC and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence Michael Rauscher |
| title_short | OPEC and the price of petroleum |
| title_sort | opec and the price of petroleum theoretical considerations and empirical evidence |
| title_sub | theoretical considerations and empirical evidence |
| topic | OPEC unbisn Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole ram Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC (DE-588)75351-8 gnd ECONOMETRIC MODELS unbist PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES unbist PETROLEUM PRICES unbist Produits pétroliers - Prix ram Petroleum products -- Prices Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | OPEC Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ECONOMETRIC MODELS PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES PETROLEUM PRICES Produits pétroliers - Prix Petroleum products -- Prices Erdölpreis Mathematisches Modell Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001564860&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rauschermichael opecandthepriceofpetroleumtheoreticalconsiderationsandempiricalevidence |