Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis: contributions from peace science and peace economics
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York u.a.
Cambridge Univ. Pr.
1988
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| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXV, 529 S. |
| ISBN: | 0521362970 0521368421 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804116586073686016 |
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| adam_text | Contents List of illustrations List of tables Preface Acknowledgments 1 Introduction and overview 1.1 The structure of the book 1.2 The nature of Peace Science References Part I 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Basic framework and set of analyses page xv xviii xxi xxiv 1 1 7 13 15 A survey of arms race models 17 Introduction The classic Richardson model and key extensions The effects of resource constraints and linkage to the domestic economy Arms, security, and the maximization of national welfare Concepts and types of strategy in arms race models Races with conventional and strategic weapons The effects on races of asymmetry, uncertainty, technology, international tensions, and key psychological factors Organizational politics and the determination of the arms budget The import of domestic political economy factors 17 20 23 vii 25 29 42 43 51 54
viii Contents 2.10 Defense spending and alliances in an и-nation system 2.11 Arms races and the operation and functioning of the world system 2.12 Concluding remarks References and additional bibliography 3 Individual and group behavior: noncrisis situation 3.1 Introduction and the general setting 3.2 Attitude as a basic variable 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 The 100 percent conservative The expected payoffcalculator The 100 percent pessimist, the 100 percent optimist, and the middle-of-the-road individual 3.2.4 The équiprobable expected payoff calculator 3.2.5 The utility maximizer 3.3 Interdependent decision making 3.4 A cognitive science approach to decision making 3.5 Concluding remarks Appendixes 57 60 68 68 86 86 87 91 92 92 93 93 94 105 114 114 3.A Behavior associated with other types ofattitude 3.B The relevance ofgame theory 114 116 References 119 4 A more formal cognitive framework for individual and group behavior 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Behavior of the individual as a decision-making unit 4.2.1 The action space of the individual 4.2.2 The individual as a perceiver 4.2.3 The individual as a believer and knower 4.2.4 The individual as a goal setter (aspirer) 4.2.5 The individual as a decision maker (chooser ofan action or strategy) 4.2.6 The individual as a learner 4.2.7 The individual as a relocator (mover) 4.3 A formal cognitive framework for understanding the group’s behavior 4.3.1 The action space of the group 4.3.2 The group as a perceiver 4.3.3 The group as a believer and knower 4.3.4 The group as an aspirer or a target (goal) setter 4.3.5 The group as a decision maker
(chooser ofanaction or strategy) 4.3.6 The group as a learner 4.3.7 The group as a relocator 121 121 122 122 123 127 131 131 134 135 137 144 144 145 148 148 149 150
Contents 4.4 Concluding remarks References 5 Decision-making behavior under major psychological ։x 152 153 153 stress and crisis conditions 5.1 Introductory remarks 5.2 Some preliminary remarks on Janis and Mann 5.3 Some preliminary formal structure 5.3.1 Stage I: appraising the challenge 5.3.2 Stage 11: surveying the alternative actions available given the challenge 5.3.3 Stages III-IV: weighing alternatives and deliberation 5.4 Evaluation and further extensions of the framework 5.5 Concluding remarks References 6 Learning, problem solving, and information research and development 155 156 157 158 164 168 169 173 174 176 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Problem solving as mental model construction 6.3 The use of artificial intelligence (AI) and other problemsolving methods oriented to external information 6.4 Investment in information research and development for problem solving 6.5 Concluding remarks References 176 178 184 7 Policy space analysis: the choice of policies regarding arms expenditures and other issues and the value of information development 201 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Some basic aspects of policy space analysis 7.2.1 The traditional line case in two-dimensional policy space 7.2.2 Isotims and isodapanes in two-dimensional policy space 7.3 Particular advantageous policy positions: lobby and related effects 7.4 Compromise points in policy space 7.5 Support (supply and market) area analysis in policy space 7.5.1 The support price gradient 7.5.2 Scale effects: the support price margin line 7.5.3 The constituent’s net price line 7.5.4 Scale effects and marginal productivity: the
net price margin line 187 197 197 201 203 203 207 209 212 215 216 219 220 223
x Contents 7.6 Relocation of potential leaders: Hotelling-type analysis 7.7 Effects and value of information development 226 229 7.7.1 A search for the mode: gains and costs 7.7.2 Determining the investment value of information 7.7.3 Some complicating factors 230 233 238 7.8 Concluding remarks Appendixes 242 244 244 248 7. A Some further policy space analysis 7.B Further analysis of the election situation and information development 7.C Technical materials on the value of information 249 References 252 8 National security reasoning: the nature and effectiveness of political argument 255 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 Introduction Some general remarks pertaining to political argument A practical set of basic elements for political argument Comparability of basic elements in a political argument and in decision-making analysis The outlines of two significant political arguments on no first use of nuclear weapons in the European theater The complex data base requirement Some major problems in constructing and evaluating more complex political arguments 255 257 259 261 8.7.1 271 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7.2 8.7.3 8.7.4 8.7.5 8.7.6 8.7.7 8.8 Problems in determining and precisely stating consistent objectives Problems with regard to the choice and definition of basic concepts Problems with respect to presuppositions and related elements in the development of a political argument Problems with respect to the definition and sources of relevant knowledge Problems in using historical materials in particular and settling upon pertinent historical interpretation Problems in anticipating rebuttals and countering
them Problems with regard to the use of insiders’ knowledge Problems in developing justifications (warrants and backing) on a more involved level 8.9 Problems of dealing with possible worlds, succession of events and dynamics, and plans 8.10 Problems associated with learning phenomena, crisis situations, system effects, and multiple-target audiences (interest groups) 263 265 271 272 273 275 276 279 281 281 284 287
Contents 8.11 Concluding remarks References 9 World system models: incorporation of military expenditures and arms trade 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 Introduction The Leontief World Input-Output (I-O) model The social accounting framework The interregional linear programming model Multicountry computable general equilibrium(CGE) models and trade matrix projection 9.6 The translog function, the comparative cost approach, and trade flows 9.7 The potentials of the gravity model 9.8 The multimethod approach for trade projection and arms trade 9.9 The projection of military expenditures in the CGE, world econometric (LINK-type), and programming models 9.10 The GLOBUS model and potential developments 9.11 Concluding remarks Appendixes: technical materials on multiregion general equilibrium models and use of the multimethod approach for construction of a trade matrix X1 289 291 295 295 297 302 306 307 310 311 313 315 322 326 327 9.A The general interregional equilibrium model 9.В A computable multiregion general equilibrium model 9.C The use of the multimethod approach to trade matrix construction in CGE models 9.D The use of the multimethod approach to trade matrix construction in the LINK model 327 328 330 References 333 332 10 Negotiation/mediation principles and qualitative and quantitative conflict management procedures 337 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Basic concepts and definitions 10.3 Conflict situation characteristics: identification of key characteristics for a given situation 10.4 Principles of negotiation (for a two-party conflict) 337 340 341 10.4.1 Principles for the preparation
and analysis phase 10.4.2 Principles for the proposal-making phase 347 348 350
xii Contents 10.4.3 Principles for the interaction phase (to reach agreement) 10.4.4 Principles for thefinal packaging phase: enhancement of implementability 10.5 352 354 Principles of mediation (for a two-party conflict) 354 10.5.1 Principles for the preparation and analysis phase 10.5.2 Principles for the interaction phase 10.5.3 Principles for the final packaging phase: enhancement of implementabilty 355 358 360 10.6 Instances of past applications of the selected principles of negotiation and mediation 10.7 Construction and illustration of qualitative conflict management procedures 360 365 10.7.1 The construction problem 10.7.2 Illustrations ofqualitative conflict management procedures 365 366 Quantitative conflict management procedures: selection of a best or workable one 10.9 Concluding remarks References 368 10.8 11 378 378 Potential for a specific application: the U.S.-Soviet arms control conflict problem 381 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Key characteristics of the U.S.-Soviet conflict 11.3 Key aspects and properties of a CMP for the U.S.Soviet conflict 381 382 383 11.3.1 Security, uncertainty, and restricted veto power 11.3.2 Limited or zero reliance on third-party intervention 11.3.3 Economic security maintenance and the use of models to generate essential economic information 11.3.4 Issue fractionation and logrollingfor guaranteed improvement 11.3.5 The needfor limited commitment 11.3.6 Balance-sheet and issue-complex” analysis 11.3.7 Other useful aspects 11.3.8 Use of the time exploitation principle 11.4 383 385 386 389 391 391 393 394 Other basic aspects to which a
CMP should be sensitive 394 11.4.1 Monitoring and inspection 11.4.2 Understanding enhancement and knowledge accumulation 11.4.3 Recognition of the play ofpersonality and sociocultural factors 11.4.4 Continuous information research and development 11.4.5 Exploitation of the force ofpublic opinion 394 395 396 397 397
Contents 11.5 Stability: an achievable property? 11.6 Some nonbasic factors 11.7 Concluding remarks References 12 Summary of Part I and conclusions Part II Some advanced analyses 13 хш 398 399 400 401 402 411 Synthesis of arms race models 413 Introduction Synthesis: the Richardson side of the coin Synthesis: the optimization side of the coin Concluding remarks References 413 414 423 437 438 Learning by a group, its leader, and its individual members 439 14.1 Introduction 14.2 A qualitative approach 14.3 Toward a quantitative approach with members only learning 14.4 Toward a quantitative approach with leader and members learning 14.5 Generalization to the hierarchical social system 14.6 Concluding remarks Appendix: proof of “reasonable” convergencein model with leader and members learning References 439 440 446 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 14 15 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 16 459 461 463 464 466 Information research and development from a dynamical system viewpoint 467 Introduction A background static-type model A dynamical systems learning model for the mediator A dynamical systems learning model for a participant Concluding remarks References 467 468 476 480 482 482 Invention and innovation in information research and development for problem solving: an exploratory view 484 16.1 Introduction and general remarks 16.2 Basic variables and parameters in a two-equation (laws of change) model 484 487
xiv Contents 16.3 Need and demand for invention (new conflict management procedures, discussion frameworks, and so on): the к factor 16.4 Communication (presentation) of need or demand: the ξ factor 16.5 Invention, the production of creative ideas and scientific knowledge (basic research) and know-how (applied research or potential innovation): the Ќ factor 16.6 Communication (transmission and diflUsion) of creative ideas and scientific knowledge and potential innovation to locations of possible use: the / factor 16.7 Adoption and implementation 16.8 The role of policy 16.9 Conclusions References Notation Author index Subject index 491 492 495 498 500 502 502 504 506 511 516
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| dewey-ones | 327 - International relations |
| dewey-raw | 327.1/74 |
| dewey-search | 327.1/74 |
| dewey-sort | 3327.1 274 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Sowjetunion USA Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Sowjetunion USA |
| id | DE-604.BV002132126 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:40:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0521362970 0521368421 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001398160 |
| oclc_num | 18463573 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-11 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-11 DE-188 |
| physical | XXV, 529 S. |
| publishDate | 1988 |
| publishDateSearch | 1988 |
| publishDateSort | 1988 |
| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Pr. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Isard, Walter 1919-2010 Verfasser (DE-588)119008491 aut Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics 1. publ. New York u.a. Cambridge Univ. Pr. 1988 XXV, 529 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Armes nucléaires - URSS - Modèles mathématiques Armes nucléaires - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques Bewapeningswedloop gtt Internationale conflicten gtt Paix - Recherche Wapenbeheersing gtt Mathematisches Modell Nuclear arms control Soviet Union Mathematical models Nuclear arms control United States Mathematical models Peace Research Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 gnd rswk-swf Diplomatie (DE-588)4012402-2 gnd rswk-swf Rüstungspolitik (DE-588)4178671-3 gnd rswk-swf Abrüstung (DE-588)4000197-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 gnd rswk-swf Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 gnd rswk-swf Friedensforschung (DE-588)4155435-8 gnd rswk-swf Friedenssicherung (DE-588)4019411-5 gnd rswk-swf Rüstungswettlauf (DE-588)4076878-8 gnd rswk-swf Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 gnd rswk-swf Sowjetunion USA Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 gnd rswk-swf Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 s Friedenssicherung (DE-588)4019411-5 s DE-604 Abrüstung (DE-588)4000197-0 s Rüstungswettlauf (DE-588)4076878-8 s Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 s Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 s Friedensforschung (DE-588)4155435-8 s DE-188 Rüstungspolitik (DE-588)4178671-3 s 1\p DE-604 Diplomatie (DE-588)4012402-2 s 2\p DE-604 Sowjetunion (DE-588)4077548-3 g 3\p DE-604 Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 s 4\p DE-604 Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001398160&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 4\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Isard, Walter 1919-2010 Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics Armes nucléaires - URSS - Modèles mathématiques Armes nucléaires - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques Bewapeningswedloop gtt Internationale conflicten gtt Paix - Recherche Wapenbeheersing gtt Mathematisches Modell Nuclear arms control Soviet Union Mathematical models Nuclear arms control United States Mathematical models Peace Research Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 gnd Diplomatie (DE-588)4012402-2 gnd Rüstungspolitik (DE-588)4178671-3 gnd Abrüstung (DE-588)4000197-0 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 gnd Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 gnd Friedensforschung (DE-588)4155435-8 gnd Friedenssicherung (DE-588)4019411-5 gnd Rüstungswettlauf (DE-588)4076878-8 gnd Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037944-9 (DE-588)4012402-2 (DE-588)4178671-3 (DE-588)4000197-0 (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4164958-8 (DE-588)4164951-5 (DE-588)4155435-8 (DE-588)4019411-5 (DE-588)4076878-8 (DE-588)4115804-0 (DE-588)4077548-3 |
| title | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_auth | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_exact_search | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_full | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_fullStr | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_short | Arms races, arms control, and conflict analysis |
| title_sort | arms races arms control and conflict analysis contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| title_sub | contributions from peace science and peace economics |
| topic | Armes nucléaires - URSS - Modèles mathématiques Armes nucléaires - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques Bewapeningswedloop gtt Internationale conflicten gtt Paix - Recherche Wapenbeheersing gtt Mathematisches Modell Nuclear arms control Soviet Union Mathematical models Nuclear arms control United States Mathematical models Peace Research Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 gnd Diplomatie (DE-588)4012402-2 gnd Rüstungspolitik (DE-588)4178671-3 gnd Abrüstung (DE-588)4000197-0 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 gnd Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 gnd Friedensforschung (DE-588)4155435-8 gnd Friedenssicherung (DE-588)4019411-5 gnd Rüstungswettlauf (DE-588)4076878-8 gnd Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Armes nucléaires - URSS - Modèles mathématiques Armes nucléaires - États-Unis - Modèles mathématiques Bewapeningswedloop Internationale conflicten Paix - Recherche Wapenbeheersing Mathematisches Modell Nuclear arms control Soviet Union Mathematical models Nuclear arms control United States Mathematical models Peace Research Mathematik Diplomatie Rüstungspolitik Abrüstung Entscheidungsfindung Konfliktregelung Konfliktanalyse Friedensforschung Friedenssicherung Rüstungswettlauf Rüstungsbegrenzung Sowjetunion USA |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001398160&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT isardwalter armsracesarmscontrolandconflictanalysiscontributionsfrompeacescienceandpeaceeconomics |