Decision analysis: introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Reading, Mass. [u.a.]
Addison-Wesley
1970
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. print. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXIII, 309 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0201062909 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Decision analysis |b introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |c Howard Raiffa |
| 250 | |a 2. print. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Reading, Mass. [u.a.] |b Addison-Wesley |c 1970 | |
| 300 | |a XXIII, 309 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Entscheidungstheorie | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804116579274719232 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Chapter 0 Introduction
1 Orientation xix
2 Thumbnail sketches of problems xx
3 The common abstraction xxii
Chapter 1 Your Basic Problem
1 Introduction 1
2 The statement of your problem 1
3 Variations of the theme of your problem 3
Chapter 2 Analysis of Your Basic Problem
1 The data of your problem 7
2 Expected monetary value (emv) 8
3 Analysis of the no-experiment alternative 9
4 The decision flow diagram 10
5 Probability assessments at chance forks 14
6 Averaging out and folding back 21
7 Expected value of perfect information, and opportunity
loss 27
XV
xvi Contents
8 Summary and generalization 33
9 Project 34
Appendix 36
Chapter 3 Uncertain Payoffs and Biased Measurements
1 Introduction 39
2 Uncertain payoffs and sampling costs 40
3 The value of information about payoffs 42
4 Biased measurements 43
5 Project 47
Chapter 4 Utility Theory or What To Do About Non-EMV ers
1 Introduction 51
2 Use of cme s in analysis of a decision-flow diagram ... 53
3 Lotteries with basic reference lottery tickets as prizes . . 57
4 Substitutability 61
5 The substitution of brlt s 62
6 The TT-indifference function for money 66
7 Analysis of your basic decision problem for a non-EMv er . 71
8 Transitivity 75
9 A criticism of the behavioral assumptions 80
10 The maximization of expected utility 86
11 Buying and selling price 89
12 Decreasing risk aversion 91
13 Behavior that is not risk-averse 94
14 Risk control through portfolio selection
and diversification 97
15 Project 100
16 Data for the project suggested in Section 2 101
Chapter 5 Use of Judgmental Probability
1 Introduction 104
2 Objective vagueness 105
3 The calibration of subjective vagueness 108
4 A consistency property for judgmental probability . . . 110
5 The additivity of judgmental P*~measure 114
6 The analysis of the «o~branch 116
7 The reduction of a general lottery 120
8 The revision of judgmental probabilities 124
9 Recapitulation 127
Contents xvii
Chapter G The Normal Form of Analysis
1 Introduction 129
2 Strategies 133
3 Randomized strategies 136
4 Choice of strategy from the efficient set when you are
given P(fl{) 138
5 Modification for a non-EMv er 141
6 Indifference-curve analysis 144
7 The principle of substitution for strategies 145
8 Choice of weights 151
9 Generalizations 152
10 The quest for objective procedures 154
11 Project 156
Chapter 7 More on the Economics of Sampling
1 Introduction 157
2 Is it worth $5.00 to learn the true proportion^? . . . 159
3 Assessment of a judgmental distribution for an uncertain
proportion 161
4 Is it worth $5.00 to learn the true proportion/;? . . . 168
5 Should you sample to obtain information about p? . . . 172
6 Revision of your prior distribution of p in light of sample
evidence 174
7 Should you sample to obtain information about p? . . . 174
8 Generalizations 178
Appendix: Prior-to-posterior analysis for a population
proportion/* 181
Chapter S Risk Sharing and Group Decisions
Part one: Risk sharing
1 Introduction to part one 188
2 A simple example of risk sharing 190
3 Formulation of a more general problem of risk sharing. . 196
4 Pareto optimality 199
5 The choice of a Pareto-optimal point 203
6 Choice between lotteries when sharing is permissible . . 207
7 Choice with sharing when individuals have exponential
utility functions 208
8 An example showing nonexistence of a group utility
function 211
9 Analysis of a decision tree with risk sharing 217
xviii Contents
Part two: Group decisions
10 Introduction to part two 220
11 On combining prior and posterior probability judgments . 221
12 The problem of the panel of experts 228
13 The group decision problem 233
Chapter 9 The Art of Implementation and General Critique
1 Introduction 239
2 When does a tree become a bushy mess? 240
3 The multiattribute problem 246
4 Assessments of several uncertain quantities 256
5 Getting started on a decision analysis 262
6 Pros and cons of decision analysis 268
7 One last remark 272
Chapter 10 Further Perspectives and a Guide to the Literature
1 Subjective probability: historical perspectives .... 273
2 An overview of statistics 278
3 Game theory, gamesmanship, gaming, and decision theory 288
4 Operations research, systems analysis, and decision analysis 295
5 Sketchy guide to the literature 298
Index 301
The Data of Your Basic Problem 312
|
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| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. print. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV002125725 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:40:45Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0201062909 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001393871 |
| oclc_num | 256168953 |
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| physical | XXIII, 309 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1970 |
| publishDateSearch | 1970 |
| publishDateSort | 1970 |
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| spelling | Raiffa, Howard 1924-2016 Verfasser (DE-588)119344513 aut Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa 2. print. Reading, Mass. [u.a.] Addison-Wesley 1970 XXIII, 309 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Entscheidungstheorie Logik (DE-588)4036202-4 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Logik (DE-588)4036202-4 s 1\p DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001393871&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Raiffa, Howard 1924-2016 Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Entscheidungstheorie Logik (DE-588)4036202-4 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4036202-4 (DE-588)4138606-1 |
| title | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_auth | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_exact_search | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_full | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa |
| title_fullStr | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty Howard Raiffa |
| title_short | Decision analysis |
| title_sort | decision analysis introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| title_sub | introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty |
| topic | Entscheidungstheorie Logik (DE-588)4036202-4 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidungstheorie Logik |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001393871&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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