Technological forecasting for decision making:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY [u.a.]
North-Holland
1983
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Policy sciences book series.
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 385 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0444007229 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804116390610731008 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Technological forecasting for decision making
Autor: Martino, Joseph Paul
Jahr: 1983
Contents
Preface to the Second Edition xiü
Preface to the First Edition xv
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1. What Is Technological Forecasting?, 1
2. Why Forecast Technology? 4
3. Alternatives to Forecasting 5
4. Will It Come True? 8
5. Stages of Innovation 9
6. Remainder of the Book 11
References 12
For Further Reference 12
Problems 12
Chapter 2. Delphi 14
1. Introduction 14
2. Advantages of Committees 15
3. Disadvantages of Committees 15
4. The Delphi Procedure 16
5. Conducting a Delphi Sequence 17
6. Variations on Delphi 20
7. Delphi as a Group Process 22
8. The Precision of Delphi 24
9. The Reliability of Delphi 25
10. Selecting Delphi Panel Members 26
11. Guidelines for Conducting a Delphi Sequence 29
12. Constructing Delphi Event Statements 33
13. Summary 35
viii Contents
References 36
For Further Reference 36
Problems 36
Chapter 3. Forecasting by Analogy 39
1. Introduction 39
2. Problems of Analogies 39
3. Dimensions of Analogies 40
4. Deviations from a Formal Analogy 49
5. Summary 50
References 51
Problems 51
Chapter 4. Growth Curves 53
1. Introduction 53
2. Substitution Curves 54
3. The Pearl Curve 57
4. The Gompertz Curve 58
5. Choosing the Proper Growth Curve 58
6. The Base 10 Pearl Curve 59
7. The Fisher-Pry Curve 60
8. Estimating the Upper Limit to a Growth Curve 61
9. Selecting Variables for Substitution Curves 62
10. An Example of a Forecast 63
References 66
For Further Reference 67
Problems 67
Chapter 5. Trend Extrapolation 69
1. Introduction 69
2. Exponential Trends 70
3. An Example of a Forecast 73
4. A Model for Exponential Growth 73
5. Nonexponential Growth 79
6. Qualitative Trends 81
7. A Behavioral Technology 81
8. Summary 84
References 84
For Further Reference 85
Problems 85
Chapter 6. Measures of Techology 86
1. Introduction 86
2. Scoring Models 88
3. Constrained Scoring Models 93
Contents ix
4. Planar Tradeoff Surfaces 94
References 97
Problem 97
Chapter 7. Correlation Methods 98
1. Introduction 98
2. Lead-Lag Correlation 98
3. Technological Progress Function 103
4. Maximum Installation Size 104
5. Correlation with Economic Factors 106
References 108
Problems 109
Chapter 8. Causal Models HO
1. Introduction HO
2. Technology-Only Models 11
3. A Technoeconomic Model 117
4. A Simulation Model 121
5. Summary 126
References 127
For Further Reference 127
Problems 127
Chapter 9. Forecasting Breakthroughs 129
1. Introduction 129
2. Examples of Breakthroughs 130
A. Atomic Energy 130
B. The Transistor 133
C. Penicillin 133
3. Monitoring for Breakthroughs 134
4. Where to Look for Signals 136
5. An Example 138
6. Summary 142
References 142
For Further Reference 143
Problems 143
Chapter 10. Combtning Forecasts 145
1. Introduction 145
2. Trend and Growth Curves 145
3. Trend and Analogy 146
4. Components and Aggregates 147
5. Scenarios 148
6. Cross Impact Models 150
7. Summary 155
Contents
Reference 155
For Further Reference 155
Problems 156
Chapter 11. Normative Methods 159
1. Introduction 159
2. Relevance Trees 159
3. Morphological Models 163
4. Mission Flow Diagrams 165
5. Summary 167
Reference 168
For Further Reference 168
Problems 169
Chapter 12. Planning and Decision Making 171
1. Introduction 171
2. The Purpose of Planning 172
3. The Role of the Forecast 174
4. Decision Making 175
5. Summary 177
Problems 177
Chapter 13. Technological Forecasting for Research
and Development Planning 178
1. Introduction 178
2. Research 179
3. Technology Advancement 182
4. Product Development 184
5. Testing and Evaluation 187
6. Summary 189
For Further Reference 189
Problems 190
Chapter 14. Technological Forecasting in Business Decision 192
1. Introduction 192
2. What Business Are We In? 193
3. Business Planning for Technological Change 195
4. Secondary Impacts 199
5. Summary 200
For Further Reference 200
Problems 201
Contents xi
Chapter 15. Technological Forecasting
in Government Planning 202
1. Introduction 202
2. Internal Operations of Government 202
3. Regulatory Agencies 204
4. Public Goods 207
5. Changes in the Form of Government 210
6. Summary 212
For Further Reference 212
Problems 213
Chapter 16. Technology Assessment 215
1. Introduction 215
2. Some Historical Cases 216
3. The Role of Technological Forecasting 221
4. An Example 222
5. Summary 224
For Further Reference 225
Problems 225
Chapter 17. Some Common Forecasting Mistakes 226
1. Introduction 226
2. Environmental Factors That Affect Forecasts 229
3. Personal Factors That Affect Forecasts 235
4. Core Assumptions 240
5. Summary 246
References 247
Problems 247
Chapter 18. Evaluating Forecasts as Decision Information 250
1. Introduction 250
2. The Interrogation Model 251
3. Summary 259
Problems 259
Chapter 19. Presenting the Forecast 261
1. Introduction 261
2. Making the Forecast Usefui 262
3. Making the Forecast Credible 271
4. A Checklist for Forecasts 278
5. Summary 281
References 282
For Further Reference 282
Problems 282
xii Contents
Appendix 1. Regression Analysis of Time Series 285
1. Introduction 285
2. Statistical Analysis 286
3. Simple Regression 299
4. Parabolic Regression 312
5. Multiple Linear Regression 318
6. Summary 326
References 326
Problems 327
Appendix 2. Statistical Tables 329
Appendix 3. Historical Data Tables 333
Appendix 4. Computer Programs 373
1. Introduction 373
2. KSIM 373
3. Growth 376
4. Regress 379
Index 383
|
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| author | Martino, Joseph P. 1931- |
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| callnumber-subject | T - General Technology |
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| dewey-full | 658.4/0355 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.4/0355 |
| dewey-search | 658.4/0355 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.4 3355 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Politologie Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV001949370 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:37:45Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0444007229 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001270799 |
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| physical | XVI, 385 S. graph. Darst. |
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| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Policy sciences book series. |
| spelling | Martino, Joseph P. 1931- Verfasser (DE-588)170216837 aut Technological forecasting for decision making 2. ed. New York, NY [u.a.] North-Holland 1983 XVI, 385 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Policy sciences book series. Decision making Technological forecasting Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 s DE-604 Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 s Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s 1\p DE-604 Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s 2\p DE-604 Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s 3\p DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001270799&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Martino, Joseph P. 1931- Technological forecasting for decision making Decision making Technological forecasting Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4059252-2 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4014904-3 |
| title | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_auth | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_exact_search | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_full | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_fullStr | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_full_unstemmed | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_short | Technological forecasting for decision making |
| title_sort | technological forecasting for decision making |
| topic | Decision making Technological forecasting Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Entscheidung (DE-588)4014904-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Decision making Technological forecasting Entscheidungsfindung Unternehmen Prognose Entscheidungstheorie Technischer Fortschritt Prognoseverfahren Entscheidung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001270799&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT martinojosephp technologicalforecastingfordecisionmaking |