Dynamic models of international conflict:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boulder, Colo.
Rienner
1985
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 561 S. Ill. |
| ISBN: | 0931477182 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Dynamic models of international conflict |c ed. by Urs Luterbacher ... |
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| 300 | |a XIV, 561 S. |b Ill. | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Dynamic Models of
International (onflict
edited by
Urs Luterbacher and
Michael D Ward
Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc
Boulder, Colorado
Contents
Preface xiii
1 Perspectives on Modeling International Conflict,
Michael D Ward 1
PART 1
GAME THEORETIC AND UTILITY APPROACHES
2 The Path to Stable Deterrence,
Steven J Brams and D Marc Kilaour 11
The Deterrence Game 12
A Rational Path from Preemption to Deterrence 18
Conclusions 22
Notes 24
3 Anticipation and Stability in Two-Person,
Non-Cooperative Games, D Marc Kilaour 26
The Conflict Model, Anticipation, and Stability 28
Representation of Selected Stability
Definitions 32
Nash Stability 33
General Metarationality 34
Symmetric Metarationality 36
Sequential Stability 37
Limited-Move Stabilities 38
L Stability 42
Non-Myopic Stability 44
Equilibria 45
Properties of Limited-Move Stabilities 48
Conclusions 50
Notes 50
4 The Pathologies of Unilateral Deterrence,
Frank C Zaaare 52
v
vi
Stable Mutual Deterrence and the Theory of
Moves 52
The Pathologies of Unilateral Deterrence 57
Three Sets of Stability Criteria 59
The Absorbing Criteria and
Attitudes Toward Risk 62
Power Asymmetries 64
Move Limitations 69
Summary and Conclusion 72
Notes 74
5 Decision-Theoretic and Game-Theoretic Models of
International Conflict, Zeev Maoz 76
The Initiation Game 77
Measuring Payoffs in the Initiation Game 88
The Conflict Management Game 97
The Negotiation Game 105
Conclusion 106
Appendix 1 106
Appendix 2 108
Notes 109
6 Moving Forward in Time: Paths Toward a Dynamic
Utility Theory of Crisis Decisions,
James D Morrow 112
Dynamic Facets of Existing Rational Models 114
What Do We Mean by Dynamic? 119
Some Possible Dynamic Rational Models 123
Conclusion 128
Notes 129
PART 2
ESCALATION PROCESSES
7 Heuristic Decision Rules, the Dynamics of
the Arms Race, and War Initiation, Michael D
Intriliaator and Daaobert L Brito 133
Deterring and Initiating Regions in the
Weapons Plane 135
Decision Rules and Gaps 145
Optimizing Behavior 147
Gaps, Stability, and War Initiation 151
Conclusions 157
Notes 158
8 Arms Races as Good Things?
Jean-Christian Lambelet 161
A First Illustration 161
A Simple Static Typology of Bilateral Arms
Races 163
vii
The Dynamic Dimension 167
A Second Illustration 168
Modeling Arms Races 169
A Third Illustration 170
Notes 172
9 Transform Methods and Dynamic Models,
Thomas F Maver 1 175
Analytical Strategies and Numerical Strategies 175
Transform Methods 177
Alternatives to the Richardson Model 181
A Second-Order Equation Model 181
An Asymmetric Model 184
An Integrated-Lag Model 187
An Interrupted Model 190
Applications to the Soviet-American Arms Race 192
Application of the Standard Richardson
Model 197
Application of the Second-Order Model 204
Application of the Asymmetric Model 206
Application of the Integrated-Lag Model 208
Application of the Interrupted Model 208
Conclusion 212
Notes 213
10 The Dollar Auction as a Model of International
Escalation, Barrv O Neill 220
Past Suggestions for the Rational Stategy 221
The Solution 222
Enrichment of the Dollar Auction
to Model Real Escalation 224
Notes 226
PART 3
SIMULATION PROCESSES
11 Toward a Dynamic Theory of Conflict and Coalition
Formation, Urs Luterbacher and Pierre Allan 229
Toward a Rational Theory of Conflict 229
The Two-Actor Level 230
Analysis of the Triad 237
Some Empirical Results 247
Notes 250
12 Modeling External and Internal Conflict in Small
Countries, T Michael Clarke 251
Small Countries and Simulation 251
General Structure and Purpose of SIMSWISS 252
Theoretical Preliminaries Concerning
Politico-Economic Models 261
viii
Political Support 264
Military and Civilian Government Expenditure 266
Military Stocks in Small Countries 267
Toward a Dynamic Model of Domestic Conflict 271
A Set of Small-Country Hypotheses 275
Notes 276
13 Simulation of Reliability Kinematics in Political
Systems, Claudio Cioffi-Revilla 278
Political Reliability Theory 279
Basic Concepts and Equations 279
Some Empirical Applicatons 280
Simulation Analysis 282
Results 288
Time-Invariant (Static) Effects
of Complexity 288
Kinematic Results: Homogeneous Trajectories 291
Kinematic Results: Mixed Trajectories 302
Discussion 306
Aspects of Specific Findings 306
Some Broader Theoretical Aspects 308
Future Research Directions 310
Notes 312
PART 4
MODELS OF WAR FIGHTING
14 Lanchester Models of Battlefield Attrition and the
Organization of Combat Forces, Martin McGuire 319
Introduction 319
Troop Density on the Battlefield 320
The Tension Between the Need to Concentrate
and to Disperse 320
Lanchester Attrition Processes and the
Structural Relations Among Dispersion,
Mobility, and Firepower 323
Interaction Between Adversaries 329
Ecological Paradigm of Interaction Between
Opponents 332
Behavioral Paradigm of Interaction Between
Opponents 333
Empirical Test of Force Density Effects 335
Decentralization and Size of Independent
Operating Units 338
Integration of Density and Decentralization
Models 344
Proposed Merger of Density and
Decentralization 345
Notes 348
15 Dynamic Models of Guerrilla Warfare,
Albert A Stahel 354
The Principles of Guerrilla Warfare 354
Models of Warfare 356
Lanchester s Models 356
Vol terra s Host and Guest Model 358
A Model for the Simulation of Guerrilla
Warfare 359
The Guerrilla War in South Sudan 360
The Partisan War in Yugosloavia (1941-1944) 361
The Guerrilla War of the Mujaheddins in
Afghanistan 364
The Model 364
The Strengths and the Parameters 366
The Results of the Simulation 368
Conclusions 369
PART 5
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
16 Adaptive Precedent-Based Logic and Rational Choice:
A Comparison of Two Approaches to the Modeling of
International Behavior, Philip A Schrodt 373
Rational Choice Models 374
Game Theory 374
Expected Utility 375
Economic Competition and Maximization 375
The Introduction of Concepts 376
The Existence of Mixed Strategy Solutions 376
The Prisoner s Dilemma/Chicken Analysis of
War Initiation and Arms 376
The Axelrod Altruism Results 377
The Game-Theoretic Analysis of Deterrence 377
Problems with the Rational Choice Approach 377
Lack of Testable Theory 380
Inappropriateness of Results 382
The Irrelevance of Methodological
Individualism 383
Inefficiency of History 385
Key Features of the Classical Approach 387
Small-N, Large-N Analysis 387
Use of Precedent and Analogy 388
Flexible Assumptions about Congition 388
The Sentient Organization as Primary Actor 389
Massive Data Bases as the Source of
Inductive Theory 389
A Dynamic Model of Employing Artificial
Intelligence Methods 390
An Example of a Formal Model of Historical
Pattern Matching 395
Conclusion 398
Notes 400
Changes in Foreign Policy Across Time: The Logical
Analysis of a Succession of Decision Problems
Using Logic Programming, Dwain Mefford 401
From the Logic of Explanation to the Logic of
Inherent in a Universe of Debate 406
Rendering the Logic of Athenian Policy on
Rebellious Cities Circa the Fifth Year
of the Peloponnesian War 408
One Case in the Series: The Evidence
Thucydides Provides 412
Logic Programming as a Medium for Reconstructing
the Universe of Debate and Decision 415
Conclusion 422
Notes 423
PART 6
EMPIRICAL AND THEORETICAL FRONTIERS
A Visual Approach to International Conflict and
Cooperat ion, Michael D Ward and
Lewis L House 427
Why Graphics? 428
The Data Base 429
The Display 431
Looking at the Results 435
Mathematical Analyses and Conclusion 456
Notes 458
Appendix 1 460
Appendix 2 461
Cycles of General, Hegemonic, and Global War,
William R Thompson 462
Wright 464
Richardson and Moyal 470
Denton and Phillips 471
The Correlates of War 475
Levy 478
Looking for Cycles of War and Peace 479
Forecasting East-West Diplomatic Climate:
A Politometric Approach, Dieter Ruloff and
Daniel Frei 489
East-West Politico-Diplomatic Climate:
Does-It Matter? 489
Implicit Models of East-West Diplomatic
Climate 489
xi
Trends 490
Cycles 491
Interdependence 492
Stochastic properties 493
The Data 494
Model and Methods 495
Statistical Results 498
Simulating and Forecasting the US-Soviet
Politico-Diplomatic Climate 508
Summary and Conclusions 513
PART 7
COMMENTARY
21 Connecting Domestic and International Conflicts,
Past and Present, Charles Tillv 517
Violent Conflict Within and Among States 517
Interactions Between Domestic and International
Conflict 522
Extraction and Repression as Links Between
Domestic and International Conflict 524
Dynamics of Domestic Conflict 527
Borrowing from International Relations 529
Returning the Favor 530
References 533
About the Editors and Contributors 559
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| spelling | Dynamic models of international conflict ed. by Urs Luterbacher ... Boulder, Colo. Rienner 1985 XIV, 561 S. Ill. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geweld gtt Internationale conflicten gtt Relations internationales - Recherche Gewalt Internationale Politik Mathematisches Modell International relations Research War Mathematical models Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 gnd rswk-swf Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 s Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 s DE-604 Luterbacher, Urs Sonstige oth HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=000238941&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Dynamic models of international conflict Geweld gtt Internationale conflicten gtt Relations internationales - Recherche Gewalt Internationale Politik Mathematisches Modell International relations Research War Mathematical models Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 gnd Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 gnd |
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| title | Dynamic models of international conflict |
| title_auth | Dynamic models of international conflict |
| title_exact_search | Dynamic models of international conflict |
| title_full | Dynamic models of international conflict ed. by Urs Luterbacher ... |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic models of international conflict ed. by Urs Luterbacher ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic models of international conflict ed. by Urs Luterbacher ... |
| title_short | Dynamic models of international conflict |
| title_sort | dynamic models of international conflict |
| topic | Geweld gtt Internationale conflicten gtt Relations internationales - Recherche Gewalt Internationale Politik Mathematisches Modell International relations Research War Mathematical models Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 gnd Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Geweld Internationale conflicten Relations internationales - Recherche Gewalt Internationale Politik Mathematisches Modell International relations Research War Mathematical models Internationaler Konflikt Dynamisches Modell |
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