Conflict analysis: models and resolutions
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
North-Holland
1984
|
| Schriftenreihe: | North-Holland series in system science and engineering
11 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XX, 377 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0444009213 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Conflict analysis |b models and resolutions |c Niall M. Fraser ; Keith W. Hipel |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York [u.a.] |b North-Holland |c 1984 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a North-Holland series in system science and engineering |v 11 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Conflictmanagement |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gestion des conflits - Modèles mathématiques | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Gestion des conflits |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Onderhandelen |2 gtt | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804114710772056064 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xix
PART I CONFLICT ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE
Chapter 1 Introduction to Conflict Analysis 3
1.1 Types of Conflicts 3
1.2 Modeling and Analysis of Simple Conflicts 6
1.3 The Cuban Missile Crisis 8
1.3.1 Historical Background 9
1.3.2 Modeling the Cuban Crisis 11
1.3.3 Stability Analysis 14
1.3.4 Results of the Cuban Crisis Analysis 20
1.4 Important Concepts from Chapter 1 22
Questions 23
Chapter 2 Garrison Diversion Unit 25
2.1 Introduction 25
2.2 Garrison Diversion Unit 25
2.3 Modeling the Garrison Conflict 28
2.3.1 Players 29
2.3.2 Options 32
2.3.3 Outcome Removal 33
2.3.4 Preferences 39
2.4 Stability Analysis 44
2.5 Important Concepts from Chapter 2 49
Questions 51
VI
Contents
Chapter 3 Hypergame Analysis 53
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 Cuban Missile Crisis Hypergame 54
3.2.1 First Level Hypergames 55
3.2.2 Cuban Missile Crisis as a First Level Hypergame 56
3.2.3 Second Level Hypergames 59
3.2.4 Cuban Missile Crisis as a Second Level Hypergame 60
3.3 Hypergame Analysis of the Normandy Invasion 64
3.3.1 Historical Background 64
3.3.2 Modeling D-Day as a Hypergame 67
3.3.3 Hypergame Structure 69
3.3.4 Stability Analysis of the D-Day Hypergame 70
3.4 Important Concepts from Chapter 3 73
Questions 74
Chapter 4 Modeling Strategic Surprise Using Hypergames 75
4.1 Introduction 75
4.2 Fall of France 75
4.3 Suez Crisis 79
4.3.1 Historical Background 79
4.3.2 Hypergame Modeling and Analysis 86
4.4 Important Concepts from Chapter 4 97
Questions 97
Chapter 5 Sensitivity and Coalition Analysis 99
5.1 Introduction 99
5.2 Techniques for Sensitivity Analysis 100
5.2.1 Multiple Analyses 100
5.2.2 Hypergame Analysis 101
5.2.3 Conservative Sanction Criterion 101
5.2.4 Coalitions 103
5.3 Historical Description of the Zimbabwe Conflict 104
5.4 Stability Analysis of the Zimbabwe Conflict 108
5.4.1 Modeling the Conflict 108
5.4.2 Stability Analysis 112
5.5 Coalition Analysis of the Zimbabwe Conflict 112
5.5.1 Ordinality in Coalition Formation 112
5.5.2 Coalition Algorithm 116
5.5.3 Stability Analysis for the Coalition Preference Vector 123
5.5.4 Compatibility of Coalition Members 124
5.6 Other Coalition Research 126
5.7 Important Concepts from Chapter 5 129
Questions 130
Chapter 6 Dynamic Models and Probability Considerations 131
6.1 Introduction 131
6.2 Watergate Tapes Conflict 132
6.2.1 History of the Watergate Conflict 132
Contents vii
6.2.2 Players and Options 135
6.2.3 Outcome Removal 136
6.2.4 Preferences 136
6.3 Static Analysis 139
6.4 Extensive Form 139
6.5 State Transition Approach 142
6.5.1 State Transition Model 142
6.5.2 Probability Considerations: The Afghan Battle 147
6.5.3 Further Discussion of the State Transition Model 151
6.6 State Transition Analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis 152
6.7 Important Concepts from Chapter 6 156
Questions 157
Chapter 7 Computer Assistance in Conflict Analysis 159
7.1 Introduction 159
7.2 Poplar River Conflict 160
7.2.1 History of the Conflict 160
7.2.2 Players 161
7.2.3 Options 162
7.2.4 Preferences 164
7.2.5 Model Entry 165
7.3 Outcome Removal 166
7.4 Preference Vector Development 167
7.5 Stability Analysis 170
7.6 State Transition Form 172
7.7 Important Concepts from Chapter 7 173
Questions 174
Chapter 8 Conflict Analysis and Bargaining 175
8.1 Introduction 175
8.2 Holston River Negotiations 177
8.2.1 Participants 177
8.2.2 History of the Negotiations 178
8.3 Bargaining Analysis 181
8.3.1 Modeling the Holston River Negotiations 182
8.3.2 Stability Analysis of the Holston River Negotiations 184
8.4 Important Concepts from Chapter 8 189
Questions 190
Chapter 9 Conflict Analysis and Negotiation 191
9.1 Introduction 191
9.2 Strategic Negotiation 192
9.2.1 Static Conflict Analysis 192
9.2.2 Hypergames in Negotiation 194
9.2.3 State Transition Model in Negotiation 195
9.2.4 Discussion 197
Contents
viii
9.3 Tactical Negotiation 198
9.4 Important Concepts from Chapter 9 199
Questions 199
PART II CONFLICT ANALYSIS IN THEORY
Chapter 10 Development of Metagame Analysis 203
10.1 Introduction 203
10.2 Normal Form 204
10.3 Metagame Theory 205
10.4 Mathematical Description of Metagame Theory 209
10.4.1 Strategies and Outcomes 209
10.4.2 Preference Functions 210
10.4.3 Game Definition 211
10.4.4 Metarational Outcomes 211
10.4.5 Metagame kG 211
10.4.6 /3 Operator 211
10.4.7 Metagame Preferences 212
10.4.8 Metarational Outcomes 212
10.4.9 Types of Metarational Outcomes 214
10.5 Metagame Analysis 215
10.6 Important Concepts from Chapter 10 219
Questions 220
Chapter 11 Conflict Analysis Methods 223
11.1 Introduction 223
11.2 The Two-Player Game 224
11.2.1 Credibility Assumption 224
11.2.2 Sequential Stability 225
11.2.3 Simultaneous Stability 225
11.2.4 Analysis Consequences 227
11.3 «-Player Games 228
11.4 Nuclear Conflict 231
11.5 Important Concepts from Chapter 11 233
Questions 234
Chapter 12 Theory and Implications of Conflict Analysis 235
12.1 Introduction 235
12.2 Foundations of Conflict Analysis 237
12.3 Rationality 240
12.4 Utility and Transitivity 241
12.5 Equilibriums and Solution Concepts 243
12.5.1 Nash Equilibriums and Metagame Analysis 243
12.5.2 Nonmyopic Equilibriums 244
12.5.3 Stackelberg Equilibriums 244
12.5.4 Pareto Optimality 246
12.5.5 Inducement 246
Contents ix
12.6 Famous 2x2 Games 247
12.6.1 Prisoner’s Dilemma 247
12.6.2 Naval Conflict 250
12.6.3 Chicken 252
12.6.4 Cookie Conflict 257
12.7 Important Concepts from Chapter 12 258
Questions 259
Chapter 13 Solution Procedures for Noncooperative Games 261
13.1 Introduction 261
13.2 Definitions and Conventions 262
13.3 Stability Concepts in n-Person Games 263
13.3.1 Individual Stability Concepts 263
13.3.2 Group Stability Concepts 268
13.4 Stability Concepts in Two-Person Games 271
13.5 Stability Concepts in 2 x 2 Games 274
13.6 Strict Ordinal Games 278
13.7 Important Concepts from Chapter 13 280
Questions 281
Chapter 14 Advanced Dynamic Modeling 283
14.1 Introduction 283
14.2 Supergames 283
14.3 Nuclear Conflict 286
14.3.1 Extensive Form Analysis 286
14.3.2 State Transition Model 288
14.3.3 Concluding Discussion of the Nuclear Conflict 292
14.4 Time-Dependent Transition Matrices 294
14.4.1 Introduction 294
14.4.2 Time-Dependent State Transitions 294
14.4.3 Dynamic Analysis of Chicken 297
14.4.4 Further Remarks Concerning Time-Dependent
State Transition Functions 301
14.5 Important Concepts from Chapter 14 303
Questions 304
Appendix A Bargaining Problem 305
A. 1 Introduction 305
A.2 Cooperative Game Solutions 306
A,2.1 Nash Solution 306
A.2.2 Zeuthen’s Principle 307
A.2.3 Shapley Value 308
A.2.4 Other Quantitative Game Models 308
A.3 Nonquantitative Game Models 309
A.3.1 2 x 2 Games 309
A.3.2 Supergames 310
X
Contents
Appendix B Negotiation Concepts 311
B.l Introduction 311
B.2 Negotiation Moves 311
B.3 Commitment 312
B.4 Threats and Ambiguity 313
B.5 Bounds of Negotiation 313
B.6 Power 314
B.7 Level of Aspiration 314
B. 8 Needs 315
Appendix C Summary of Classical Game Theoretic Techniques 317
C. l Introduction 317
C.2 Games and Extensive Forms of Games 317
C.3 Strategies, the Normal Form, and Utilities 318
C.4 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 319
C.4.1 Equilibriums 319
C.4.2 Mixed Strategies 320
C.4.3 Solutions 321
C.5 Two-Person Nonzero-Sum Games 324
C. 6 «-Player Games 325
Appendix D Characterization Theorem 327
D. l Introduction 327
D.2 Definitions 327
D. 3 Characterization Theorem for Metarational
Outcomes 328
Appendix E Examples to Illustrate Existence 333
E. l Introduction 333
E.2 Existence Examples for Figure E.l 334
E.3 Existence Examples for Figure E.2 335
E.4 Existence Examples for Figure E.3 336
E.5 Existence Examples for Figure E.4 337
E.6 Existence Examples for Figure E.5 338
E.7 Existence Examples for Figure E.6 340
E.8 Existence Examples for Figure E.7 342
E. 9 Existence Examples for Figure E.8 344
Appendix F Special Classes of Games 347
F. 1 Introduction 347
F.2 No-Conflict Games 347
F.3 Games of Complete Opposition 350
Bibliography 361
Index 373
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:11:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0444009213 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Fraser, Niall M. Verfasser (DE-588)17029059X aut Conflict analysis models and resolutions Niall M. Fraser ; Keith W. Hipel New York [u.a.] North-Holland 1984 XX, 377 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier North-Holland series in system science and engineering 11 Conflictmanagement gtt Gestion des conflits - Modèles mathématiques Gestion des conflits ram Onderhandelen gtt Mathematisches Modell Conflict management Mathematical models Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 gnd rswk-swf Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 s Hipel, Keith W. Verfasser (DE-588)170290603 aut North-Holland series in system science and engineering 11 (DE-604)BV000001120 11 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=000149001&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Fraser, Niall M. Hipel, Keith W. Conflict analysis models and resolutions North-Holland series in system science and engineering Conflictmanagement gtt Gestion des conflits - Modèles mathématiques Gestion des conflits ram Onderhandelen gtt Mathematisches Modell Conflict management Mathematical models Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164951-5 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4164958-8 |
| title | Conflict analysis models and resolutions |
| title_auth | Conflict analysis models and resolutions |
| title_exact_search | Conflict analysis models and resolutions |
| title_full | Conflict analysis models and resolutions Niall M. Fraser ; Keith W. Hipel |
| title_fullStr | Conflict analysis models and resolutions Niall M. Fraser ; Keith W. Hipel |
| title_full_unstemmed | Conflict analysis models and resolutions Niall M. Fraser ; Keith W. Hipel |
| title_short | Conflict analysis |
| title_sort | conflict analysis models and resolutions |
| title_sub | models and resolutions |
| topic | Conflictmanagement gtt Gestion des conflits - Modèles mathématiques Gestion des conflits ram Onderhandelen gtt Mathematisches Modell Conflict management Mathematical models Konfliktanalyse (DE-588)4164951-5 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Konfliktregelung (DE-588)4164958-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Conflictmanagement Gestion des conflits - Modèles mathématiques Gestion des conflits Onderhandelen Mathematisches Modell Conflict management Mathematical models Konfliktanalyse Konfliktregelung |
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