Negotiating peace: war termination as a bargaining process
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton, N.J.
Princeton Univ. Pr.
1983
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | IX, 282 S. |
| ISBN: | 0691076561 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ACKNOWLEDGMENTS INTRODUCTION ХІ XİÜ 3 ONE Patterns of War Termination How Wars Can End How Wars Did End The prevalance of explicit agreements Divisibility of the stakes The transition toward negotiation Negotiations Before and After Armistices War Termination as a Bargaining Problem The Use of Evidence from Individual Wars 11 13 16 16 24 26 30 37 40 TWO The Opening of Negotiations The Decision to Talk Negotiated settlement versus direct achievement Timing Side֊Effects The opening of peace negotiations as a bargaining problem When negotiations open Barriers to the Opening of Negotiations The exaggeration of hostility The reluctance to move first Conditions How Barriers are Overcome Overcoming the reluctance to move first Overcoming distrust and exaggerated perceptions of hostility Overcoming problems of conditions A Preliminary Cease-Fire? Conclusion 44 45 45 49 51 53 58 64 65 67 69 77 78 80 82 86 89
viii CONTENTS THREE The Dynamics of Concession 90 The Meanings of Concessions 91 A cause of change in the enemy’s incentives A cause of change in the party’s ownincentives An indicator of incentives A basis for projection offuture bargaining behavior Conditionable behavior A signal An act which obligates the enemy to concede Patterns of Reciprocation Phase One Phase Two Phase Three Conditions for reciprocation Quantitative issues Nonquantitative issues Conclusion 92 94 95 95 97 98 98 100 102 112 119 122 129 137 140 FOUR The Military Instrument 144 Manipulating the Costs of Disagreement 144 145 154 160 164 169 172 174 181 182 183 185 188 189 193 Efficiency Motivations Responses to the enemy’s military activity Time and the level of violence Possible outcomes and the level of violence Sequential decision-making and the level of violence Deprivation Mutual de-escalation Other Military Actions Intended to Influence Agreement Threatening escalation Demonstrating determination Demonstrating a willingness to settle Manipulating the war map Asserting claims Conclusion 194
CONTENTS IX FIVE The Diplomatic Response to Military Activity The Anticipation of Military Outcomes Trends and prospects on the battlefield Critical military events Outside military events Future wars Ultimata and deadlines Costs of Violence Interpretations of Armed Actions Interpretations of Diplomatic Responses The Arousal of New Motivations Upholding a bargaining reputation Upholding a military reputation Conclusion 196 197 197 201 203 205 206 208 211 213 213 215 217 219 SIX The Manipulation of Multiple Issues 221 The Sequence of Consideration Package Proposals Leaving Outcomes to Chance Not Leaving Outcomes to the Enemy Conclusion 221 224 229 231 234 SEVEN War Termination in Theory and Practice The Use of Theory in the Study of War Peace Negotiations and the Statesman 236 236 239 APPENDICES A. Lessons for the Statesman at War B. Some Conditions for Nonreciprocation of Concessions by Zeuthenian Bargainers C. Splitting֊the-Difference as a Consequence of Zeuthenian Bargaining with Linear Utilities 245 BIBLIOGRAPHY 259 277 INDEX 250 252
TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES 1. How wars ended, 1800-1980 2. Types of wars and types of war endings 18 25 FIGURES 1. Types of war endings 14 2. Attitudes toward negotiations in the Korean War 54 3. A bargaining problem in which Zeuthenian bargainers would not reciprocate concessions 124 4. Some conditions for reciprocation or nonreciprocation of concessions by Zeuthenian bargainers 126 5. Bargaining at the Korean armistice negotiation on the number of ports of entry 134 6. Bargaining at the Korean armistice negotiation on the monthly rotation limit 135 7. Bargaining between two experimental subjects 136 8. Cost manipulation and the Nash solution 148 9. Cost manipulation in the Vietnam War 153 10. Cost manipulation with a convex bargaining space 161 11. Cost manipulation with a concave bargaining space 162 12. Splitting-the-difference with linear utilities 253
CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ACKNOWLEDGMENTS INTRODUCTION ХІ ХІІІ 3 ONE Patterns of War Termination 11 How Wars Can End How Wars Did End The prevalance of explicit agreements Divisibility of the stakes The transition toward negotiation Negotiations Before and After Armistices War Termination as a Bargaining Problem The Use of Evidence from Individual Wars 13 16 16 24 26 30 37 40 TWO The Opening of Negotiations The Decision to Talk Negotiated settlement versus direct achievement Timing Side-Effects The opening of peace negotiations as a bargaining problem When negotiations open Barriers to the Opening of Negotiations The exaggeration of hostility The reluctance to move first Conditions How Barriers are Overcome Overcoming the reluctance to move first Overcoming distrust and exaggerated perceptions of hostility Overcoming problems of conditions A Preliminary Cease-Fire? Conclusion 44 45 45 49 51 53 58 64 65 67 69 77 78 80 82 86 89
viii CONTENTS THREE The Dynamics of Concession The Meanings of Concessions A cause of change in the enemy’s incentives A cause of change in the party’s own incentives An indicator of incentives A basis for projection offuture bargaining behavior Conditionable behavior A signal An act which obligates the enemy to concede Patterns of Reciprocation Phase One Phase Two Phase Three Conditions for reciprocation Quantitative issues Nonquantitative issues Conclusion 90 91 92 94 95 95 97 98 98 100 102 112 119 122 129 137 140 FOUR The Military Instrument Manipulating the Costs of Disagreement Efficiency Motivations Responses to the enemy’s military activity Time and the level of violence Possible outcomes and the level of violence Sequential decision-making and the level of violence Deprivation Mutual de-escalation Other Military Actions Intended to Influence Agreement Threatening escalation Demonstrating determination Demonstrating a willingness to settle Manipulating the war map Asserting claims Conclusion 144 144 145 154 160 164 169 172 174 181 182 183 185 188 189 193 J94
CONTENTS ІХ FIVE The Diplomatic Response to Military Activity The Anticipation of Military Outcomes Trends and prospects on the battlefield Critical military events Outside military events Future wars Ultimata and deadlines Costs of Violence Interpretations of Armed Actions Interpretations of Diplomatic Responses The Arousal of New Motivations Upholding a bargaining reputation Upholding a military reputation Conclusion six The Manipulation of Multiple Issues The Sequence of Consideration Package Proposals Leaving Outcomes to Chance Not Leaving Outcomes to the Enemy Conclusion 196 197 197 201 203 205 206 208 211 213 213 215 217 219 221 221 224 229 231 234 SEVEN War Termination in Theory and Practice The Use of Theory in the Study of War Peace Negotiations and the Statesman 236 236 239 APPENDICES A. Lessons for the Statesman at War B. Some Conditions for Nonreciprocation of Concessions by Zeuthenian Bargainers C. Splitting-the-Difference as a Consequence of Zeuthenian Bargaining with Linear Utilities bibliography INDEX 245 250 252 259 277
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| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
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| spelling | Pillar, Paul R. Verfasser aut Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process Princeton, N.J. Princeton Univ. Pr. 1983 IX, 282 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Armisticios Guerra Negociación Pokój jhpk Relaciones internacionales Stosunki międzynarodowe jhpk Vredesonderhandelingen gtt Wojna jhpk Internationale Politik Armistices International relations Negotiation Peace War Beendigung (DE-588)4130238-2 gnd rswk-swf Friedensvermittlung (DE-588)4155445-0 gnd rswk-swf Friedensverhandlung (DE-588)4155444-9 gnd rswk-swf Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd rswk-swf Friedensverhandlung (DE-588)4155444-9 s DE-604 Friedensvermittlung (DE-588)4155445-0 s Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 s Beendigung (DE-588)4130238-2 s Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=000078162&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=000078162&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Pillar, Paul R. Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process Armisticios Guerra Negociación Pokój jhpk Relaciones internacionales Stosunki międzynarodowe jhpk Vredesonderhandelingen gtt Wojna jhpk Internationale Politik Armistices International relations Negotiation Peace War Beendigung (DE-588)4130238-2 gnd Friedensvermittlung (DE-588)4155445-0 gnd Friedensverhandlung (DE-588)4155444-9 gnd Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4130238-2 (DE-588)4155445-0 (DE-588)4155444-9 (DE-588)4033114-3 |
| title | Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_auth | Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_exact_search | Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_full | Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_fullStr | Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_full_unstemmed | Negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_short | Negotiating peace |
| title_sort | negotiating peace war termination as a bargaining process |
| title_sub | war termination as a bargaining process |
| topic | Armisticios Guerra Negociación Pokój jhpk Relaciones internacionales Stosunki międzynarodowe jhpk Vredesonderhandelingen gtt Wojna jhpk Internationale Politik Armistices International relations Negotiation Peace War Beendigung (DE-588)4130238-2 gnd Friedensvermittlung (DE-588)4155445-0 gnd Friedensverhandlung (DE-588)4155444-9 gnd Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Armisticios Guerra Negociación Pokój Relaciones internacionales Stosunki międzynarodowe Vredesonderhandelingen Wojna Internationale Politik Armistices International relations Negotiation Peace War Beendigung Friedensvermittlung Friedensverhandlung Krieg |
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