Oil and the world economy :: some possible futures /
"This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Körperschaft: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund, Research Dept.,
2012.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP12/256. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult."--Abstract. |
| Beschreibung: | "October 2012." |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (31 pages) |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 9781475539974 1475539975 |
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| 520 | |a "This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult."--Abstract. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario. | |
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| author | Kumhof, Michael Muir, Dirk |
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| contents | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario. C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario. |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-16T15:03:52Z |
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| spelling | Kumhof, Michael, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2002021979 Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2012. 1 online resource (31 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF working paper ; WP12/256 "October 2012." "This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult."--Abstract. Includes bibliographical references. Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario. C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario. Petroleum products Prices Econometric models. Energy consumption Econometric models. Produits pétroliers Prix Modèles économétriques. Énergie Consommation Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Industries General. bisacsh Energy consumption Econometric models fast Petroleum products Prices Econometric models fast Muir, Dirk, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2006037299 International Monetary Fund. Research Department. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 has work: Oil and the world economy (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGRy8BBD7JdDtyR3cbvBrq https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork IMF working paper ; WP12/256. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBU FWS_PDA_EBU https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=516436 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Kumhof, Michael Muir, Dirk Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / IMF working paper ; Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario. C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario. Petroleum products Prices Econometric models. Energy consumption Econometric models. Produits pétroliers Prix Modèles économétriques. Énergie Consommation Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Industries General. bisacsh Energy consumption Econometric models fast Petroleum products Prices Econometric models fast |
| title | Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / |
| title_auth | Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / |
| title_exact_search | Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / |
| title_full | Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir. |
| title_fullStr | Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Oil and the world economy : some possible futures / Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir. |
| title_short | Oil and the world economy : |
| title_sort | oil and the world economy some possible futures |
| title_sub | some possible futures / |
| topic | Petroleum products Prices Econometric models. Energy consumption Econometric models. Produits pétroliers Prix Modèles économétriques. Énergie Consommation Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Industries General. bisacsh Energy consumption Econometric models fast Petroleum products Prices Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | Petroleum products Prices Econometric models. Energy consumption Econometric models. Produits pétroliers Prix Modèles économétriques. Énergie Consommation Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Industries General. Energy consumption Econometric models Petroleum products Prices Econometric models |
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