Bernoulli's fallacy :: statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science /
"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decision...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York :
Columbia University Press,
[2021]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"-- |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) : illustrations |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: | 9780231553353 0231553358 |
Internformat
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| 020 | |a 0231553358 |q electronic book | ||
| 020 | |z 9780231199940 |q hardcover | ||
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| 049 | |a MAIN | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Clayton, Aubrey, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2021010810 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Bernoulli's fallacy : |b statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / |c Aubrey Clayton. |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York : |b Columbia University Press, |c [2021] | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) : |b illustrations | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 520 | |a "There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"-- |c Provided by publisher. | ||
| 588 | |a Description based on online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on August 30, 2021). | ||
| 505 | 0 | 0 | |t Introduction -- |t 1. What is probability? -- |t 2. The titular fallacy -- |t 3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge -- |t 4. The frequentist jihad -- |t 5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics -- |t 6. The replication crisis/opportunity -- |t 7. The way out. |
| 600 | 1 | 0 | |a Bernoulli, Jakob, |d 1654-1705 |x Influence. |
| 600 | 1 | 7 | |a Bernoulli, Jakob, |d 1654-1705 |2 fast |
| 650 | 0 | |a Probabilities |x Philosophy |y 19th century. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Probabilities |x Philosophy |y 20th century. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Mathematical statistics |x Philosophy. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Binomial distribution. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85014113 | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Law of large numbers. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85075318 | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Probabilités |x Philosophie |y 19e siècle. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Probabilités |x Philosophie |y 20e siècle. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Loi binomiale. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Loi des grands nombres. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Binomial distribution |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Law of large numbers |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Mathematical statistics |x Philosophy |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Probabilities |x Philosophy |2 fast | |
| 648 | 7 | |a 1800-1999 |2 fast | |
| 653 | |a Bayesian statistics. | ||
| 653 | |a frequentist statistics. | ||
| 653 | |a history of math. | ||
| 653 | |a history of statistics. | ||
| 653 | |a probability. | ||
| 653 | |a replication crisis. | ||
| 653 | |a statistics and science. | ||
| 653 | |a statistics. | ||
| 758 | |i has work: |a Bernoulli's fallacy (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGJfvhWtrfXwhqDymBgFXb |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Clayton, Aubrey. |t Bernoulli's fallacy |d New York : Columbia University Press, 2021. |z 9780231199940 |w (DLC) 2021004250 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |l FWS01 |p ZDB-4-EBA |q FWS_PDA_EBA |u https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=2662798 |3 Volltext |
| 938 | |a hoopla Digital |b HOPL |n MWT14416107 | ||
| 938 | |a De Gruyter |b DEGR |n 9780231553353 | ||
| 938 | |a Askews and Holts Library Services |b ASKH |n AH39009764 | ||
| 938 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b EBLB |n EBL6381596 | ||
| 938 | |a EBSCOhost |b EBSC |n 2662798 | ||
| 994 | |a 92 |b GEBAY | ||
| 912 | |a ZDB-4-EBA | ||
| 049 | |a DE-863 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | ZDB-4-EBA-on1240264669 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1816882539971739648 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Clayton, Aubrey |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2021010810 |
| author_facet | Clayton, Aubrey |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Clayton, Aubrey |
| author_variant | a c ac |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | localFWS |
| callnumber-first | Q - Science |
| callnumber-label | QA273 |
| callnumber-raw | QA273.A35 C53 2021 |
| callnumber-search | QA273.A35 C53 2021 |
| callnumber-sort | QA 3273 A35 C53 42021 |
| callnumber-subject | QA - Mathematics |
| collection | ZDB-4-EBA |
| contents | Introduction -- 1. What is probability? -- 2. The titular fallacy -- 3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge -- 4. The frequentist jihad -- 5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics -- 6. The replication crisis/opportunity -- 7. The way out. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1240264669 |
| dewey-full | 519.2 |
| dewey-hundreds | 500 - Natural sciences and mathematics |
| dewey-ones | 519 - Probabilities and applied mathematics |
| dewey-raw | 519.2 |
| dewey-search | 519.2 |
| dewey-sort | 3519.2 |
| dewey-tens | 510 - Mathematics |
| discipline | Mathematik |
| era | 1800-1999 fast |
| era_facet | 1800-1999 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | ZDB-4-EBA-on1240264669 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:30:13Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780231553353 0231553358 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2021004251 |
| oclc_num | 1240264669 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) : illustrations |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateSearch | 2021 |
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| publisher | Columbia University Press, |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Clayton, Aubrey, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2021010810 Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / Aubrey Clayton. New York : Columbia University Press, [2021] 1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) : illustrations text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index. "There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"-- Provided by publisher. Description based on online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on August 30, 2021). Introduction -- 1. What is probability? -- 2. The titular fallacy -- 3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge -- 4. The frequentist jihad -- 5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics -- 6. The replication crisis/opportunity -- 7. The way out. Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 Influence. Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 fast Probabilities Philosophy 19th century. Probabilities Philosophy 20th century. Mathematical statistics Philosophy. Binomial distribution. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85014113 Law of large numbers. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85075318 Probabilités Philosophie 19e siècle. Probabilités Philosophie 20e siècle. Loi binomiale. Loi des grands nombres. MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy bisacsh Binomial distribution fast Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) fast Law of large numbers fast Mathematical statistics Philosophy fast Probabilities Philosophy fast 1800-1999 fast Bayesian statistics. frequentist statistics. history of math. history of statistics. probability. replication crisis. statistics and science. statistics. has work: Bernoulli's fallacy (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGJfvhWtrfXwhqDymBgFXb https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Clayton, Aubrey. Bernoulli's fallacy New York : Columbia University Press, 2021. 9780231199940 (DLC) 2021004250 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=2662798 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Clayton, Aubrey Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / Introduction -- 1. What is probability? -- 2. The titular fallacy -- 3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge -- 4. The frequentist jihad -- 5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics -- 6. The replication crisis/opportunity -- 7. The way out. Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 Influence. Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 fast Probabilities Philosophy 19th century. Probabilities Philosophy 20th century. Mathematical statistics Philosophy. Binomial distribution. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85014113 Law of large numbers. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85075318 Probabilités Philosophie 19e siècle. Probabilités Philosophie 20e siècle. Loi binomiale. Loi des grands nombres. MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy bisacsh Binomial distribution fast Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) fast Law of large numbers fast Mathematical statistics Philosophy fast Probabilities Philosophy fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85014113 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85075318 |
| title | Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / |
| title_alt | Introduction -- 1. What is probability? -- 2. The titular fallacy -- 3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge -- 4. The frequentist jihad -- 5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics -- 6. The replication crisis/opportunity -- 7. The way out. |
| title_auth | Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / |
| title_exact_search | Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / |
| title_full | Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / Aubrey Clayton. |
| title_fullStr | Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / Aubrey Clayton. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / Aubrey Clayton. |
| title_short | Bernoulli's fallacy : |
| title_sort | bernoulli s fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| title_sub | statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / |
| topic | Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 Influence. Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 fast Probabilities Philosophy 19th century. Probabilities Philosophy 20th century. Mathematical statistics Philosophy. Binomial distribution. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85014113 Law of large numbers. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85075318 Probabilités Philosophie 19e siècle. Probabilités Philosophie 20e siècle. Loi binomiale. Loi des grands nombres. MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy bisacsh Binomial distribution fast Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) fast Law of large numbers fast Mathematical statistics Philosophy fast Probabilities Philosophy fast |
| topic_facet | Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 Influence. Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 Probabilities Philosophy 19th century. Probabilities Philosophy 20th century. Mathematical statistics Philosophy. Binomial distribution. Law of large numbers. Probabilités Philosophie 19e siècle. Probabilités Philosophie 20e siècle. Loi binomiale. Loi des grands nombres. MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy Binomial distribution Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) Law of large numbers Mathematical statistics Philosophy Probabilities Philosophy |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=2662798 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT claytonaubrey bernoullisfallacystatisticalillogicandthecrisisofmodernscience |