Global Trade and the Dollar.:
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exch...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2017]
|
| Series: | IMF working paper ;
WP/17/239. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms. |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource |
| ISBN: | 1484328884 1484327977 9781484327975 9781484328880 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a International trade |x Prices |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Foreign exchange rates |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Monetary policy |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Commerce international |x Prix |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Taux de change |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique monétaire |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Foreign exchange rates |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Monetary policy |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
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| id | ZDB-4-EBA-on1014376734 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-04-11T08:44:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1484328884 1484327977 9781484327975 9781484328880 |
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| spelling | Boz, Emine, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2007130830 Global Trade and the Dollar. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2017] ©2017 1 online resource text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Paper ; WP/17/239 Print version record. We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms. International trade Prices Econometric models. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models. Monetary policy Econometric models. Commerce international Prix Modèles économétriques. Taux de change Modèles économétriques. Politique monétaire Modèles économétriques. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models fast Monetary policy Econometric models fast has work: Global trade and the dollar (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFDKHB3F7tTq3hj8yy9CHy https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Boz, Emine. Global Trade and the Dollar. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,2017 9781484327975 IMF working paper ; WP/17/239. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 |
| spellingShingle | Boz, Emine Global Trade and the Dollar. IMF working paper ; International trade Prices Econometric models. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models. Monetary policy Econometric models. Commerce international Prix Modèles économétriques. Taux de change Modèles économétriques. Politique monétaire Modèles économétriques. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models fast Monetary policy Econometric models fast |
| title | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_auth | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_exact_search | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_full | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_fullStr | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_short | Global Trade and the Dollar. |
| title_sort | global trade and the dollar |
| topic | International trade Prices Econometric models. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models. Monetary policy Econometric models. Commerce international Prix Modèles économétriques. Taux de change Modèles économétriques. Politique monétaire Modèles économétriques. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models fast Monetary policy Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | International trade Prices Econometric models. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models. Monetary policy Econometric models. Commerce international Prix Modèles économétriques. Taux de change Modèles économétriques. Politique monétaire Modèles économétriques. Foreign exchange rates Econometric models Monetary policy Econometric models |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bozemine globaltradeandthedollar |