Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty :: an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning /
"Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks,...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica, Calif. :
RAND,
[2016]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Research report (Rand Corporation) ;
RR-1112-OSD. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks, a new approach to planning is needed to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures and thus are better able to manage surprise. This report describes how robust decision making (RDM) may help address this need. RDM, a quantitative decision support methodology for informing decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, has been applied to many policy areas in the last decade. This document provides a proof of concept application of RDM to defense planning, focusing on the air-launched munitions mix challenge. The study embeds a fast-running "weapons on targets" allocation model within a "scenario generator" that explores many thousands of plausible, future twenty-year series of military campaigns. The RDM analysis uses these simulation models to stress-test alternative munitions mix strategies against many plausible futures. The analysis then identifies a robust munitions mix strategy, which interestingly depends not only on the desired portfolio of alternative weapons types but also on the rules used to replenish depleted weapons stocks after each campaign. The study also suggests how RDM might best be integrated into current Department of Defense planning processes and some of the challenges that might be involved"--Publisher's description |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages) : color illustrations, color charts |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-86). |
| ISBN: | 9780833093059 0833093053 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : |b an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / |c Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio. |
| 246 | 3 | |a Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning | |
| 264 | 1 | |a Santa Monica, Calif. : |b RAND, |c [2016] | |
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| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-86). | ||
| 505 | 0 | 0 | |g Ch. 1: |t Introduction -- |g ch. 2: |t The RDM approach to munitions mix planning -- |g ch. 3: |t RDM munitions mix analysis -- |g ch. 4: |t Conclusions -- |g Appendix A. |t The weapons on target model -- |g Appendix B. |t Experimental design -- |g Appendix C. |t Data. |
| 505 | 0 | 0 | |t Preface -- |t Figures -- |t Tables -- |t Summary -- |t Acknowledgments -- |t Abbreviations -- |t CHAPTER ONE: |t Introduction: |g Planning with Predictive Failure -- |g Munitions Mix Challenge -- |g Organization of This Report -- |t CHAPTER TWO: |t The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning: |g Comparison of RDM and Traditional Analysis -- |g RDM Enables Decision Makers to Discover Robust Strategies Through Iteration -- |g XLRM Factors Shape the Design of the Experiment -- |t CHAPTER THREE: |t RDM Munitions Mix Analysis: |g Initial Analysis of a Broad Range of Munitions Mix Strategies -- |g Analysis of Potentially More Robust Munitions Mix Strategies -- |g Stress-Testing of Strategies over Many Futures -- |g Scenarios That Illuminate the Vulnerabilities of Strategies -- |g Performance of Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Moderate Scenario -- |g Performance of the Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Extreme Scenario -- |g Future Focus on Purchase Rules in Addition to Portfolio Goals -- |t CHAPTER FOUR: |t Conclusions: |g A Robust Munitions Mix Strategy -- |g The Future of RDM in Defense Planning -- |t APPENDIXES -- |t References. |
| 520 | |a "Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks, a new approach to planning is needed to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures and thus are better able to manage surprise. This report describes how robust decision making (RDM) may help address this need. RDM, a quantitative decision support methodology for informing decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, has been applied to many policy areas in the last decade. This document provides a proof of concept application of RDM to defense planning, focusing on the air-launched munitions mix challenge. The study embeds a fast-running "weapons on targets" allocation model within a "scenario generator" that explores many thousands of plausible, future twenty-year series of military campaigns. The RDM analysis uses these simulation models to stress-test alternative munitions mix strategies against many plausible futures. The analysis then identifies a robust munitions mix strategy, which interestingly depends not only on the desired portfolio of alternative weapons types but also on the rules used to replenish depleted weapons stocks after each campaign. The study also suggests how RDM might best be integrated into current Department of Defense planning processes and some of the challenges that might be involved"--Publisher's description | ||
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| author | Lempert, Robert J. |
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| contents | Introduction -- The RDM approach to munitions mix planning -- RDM munitions mix analysis -- Conclusions -- The weapons on target model -- Experimental design -- Data. Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction: CHAPTER TWO: The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning: CHAPTER THREE: RDM Munitions Mix Analysis: CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions: APPENDIXES -- References. |
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| format | Electronic eBook |
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| geographic | United States Armed Forces Procurement. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139879 United States Armed Forces Weapons systems. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139905 United States Armed Forces Equipment. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139822 United States Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139866 United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq |
| geographic_facet | United States Armed Forces Procurement. United States Armed Forces Weapons systems. United States Armed Forces Equipment. United States Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores. United States |
| id | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn939550826 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:27:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n78083407 |
| isbn | 9780833093059 0833093053 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 939550826 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages) : color illustrations, color charts |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateSearch | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | RAND, |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Research report (Rand Corporation) ; |
| series2 | Research report ; |
| spelling | Lempert, Robert J., author. https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjCVP6xmWdpMyt6rGrk6mm http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n88158770 Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio. Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2016] ©2016 1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages) : color illustrations, color charts text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Research report ; RR-1112-OSD Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-86). Ch. 1: Introduction -- ch. 2: The RDM approach to munitions mix planning -- ch. 3: RDM munitions mix analysis -- ch. 4: Conclusions -- Appendix A. The weapons on target model -- Appendix B. Experimental design -- Appendix C. Data. Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction: Planning with Predictive Failure -- Munitions Mix Challenge -- Organization of This Report -- CHAPTER TWO: The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning: Comparison of RDM and Traditional Analysis -- RDM Enables Decision Makers to Discover Robust Strategies Through Iteration -- XLRM Factors Shape the Design of the Experiment -- CHAPTER THREE: RDM Munitions Mix Analysis: Initial Analysis of a Broad Range of Munitions Mix Strategies -- Analysis of Potentially More Robust Munitions Mix Strategies -- Stress-Testing of Strategies over Many Futures -- Scenarios That Illuminate the Vulnerabilities of Strategies -- Performance of Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Moderate Scenario -- Performance of the Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Extreme Scenario -- Future Focus on Purchase Rules in Addition to Portfolio Goals -- CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions: A Robust Munitions Mix Strategy -- The Future of RDM in Defense Planning -- APPENDIXES -- References. "Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks, a new approach to planning is needed to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures and thus are better able to manage surprise. This report describes how robust decision making (RDM) may help address this need. RDM, a quantitative decision support methodology for informing decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, has been applied to many policy areas in the last decade. This document provides a proof of concept application of RDM to defense planning, focusing on the air-launched munitions mix challenge. The study embeds a fast-running "weapons on targets" allocation model within a "scenario generator" that explores many thousands of plausible, future twenty-year series of military campaigns. The RDM analysis uses these simulation models to stress-test alternative munitions mix strategies against many plausible futures. The analysis then identifies a robust munitions mix strategy, which interestingly depends not only on the desired portfolio of alternative weapons types but also on the rules used to replenish depleted weapons stocks after each campaign. The study also suggests how RDM might best be integrated into current Department of Defense planning processes and some of the challenges that might be involved"--Publisher's description Online resource; title from PDF title page (RAND, viewed February 16, 2016). United States. Department of Defense Appropriations and expenditures. United States. Department of Defense fast United States Armed Forces Procurement. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139879 United States Armed Forces Weapons systems. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139905 United States Armed Forces Equipment. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139822 United States Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139866 Strategy. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85128514 Decision making. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 Stratégie. Prise de décision. decision making. aat TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh Armed Forces Equipment and supplies fast Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores fast Armed Forces Procurement fast Armed Forces Weapons systems fast Decision making fast Expenditures, Public fast Strategy fast United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq Rand Corporation, publisher. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n78083407 Books at JSTOR: Open Access JSTOR Print version: Druck-Ausgabe Defense resource planning under uncertainty . An application of robust decision making to munitions mix planning Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-1112-OSD. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2013072664 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1180789 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Lempert, Robert J. Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / Research report (Rand Corporation) ; Introduction -- The RDM approach to munitions mix planning -- RDM munitions mix analysis -- Conclusions -- The weapons on target model -- Experimental design -- Data. Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction: CHAPTER TWO: The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning: CHAPTER THREE: RDM Munitions Mix Analysis: CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions: APPENDIXES -- References. United States. Department of Defense Appropriations and expenditures. United States. Department of Defense fast Strategy. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85128514 Decision making. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 Stratégie. Prise de décision. decision making. aat TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh Armed Forces Equipment and supplies fast Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores fast Armed Forces Procurement fast Armed Forces Weapons systems fast Decision making fast Expenditures, Public fast Strategy fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139879 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139905 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139822 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139866 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85128514 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 |
| title | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / |
| title_alt | Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning Introduction -- The RDM approach to munitions mix planning -- RDM munitions mix analysis -- Conclusions -- The weapons on target model -- Experimental design -- Data. Preface -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction: CHAPTER TWO: The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning: CHAPTER THREE: RDM Munitions Mix Analysis: CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions: APPENDIXES -- References. |
| title_auth | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / |
| title_exact_search | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / |
| title_full | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio. |
| title_fullStr | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio. |
| title_short | Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : |
| title_sort | defense resource planning under uncertainty an application of robust decision making to munitions mix planning |
| title_sub | an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / |
| topic | United States. Department of Defense Appropriations and expenditures. United States. Department of Defense fast Strategy. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85128514 Decision making. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 Stratégie. Prise de décision. decision making. aat TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. bisacsh Armed Forces Equipment and supplies fast Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores fast Armed Forces Procurement fast Armed Forces Weapons systems fast Decision making fast Expenditures, Public fast Strategy fast |
| topic_facet | United States. Department of Defense Appropriations and expenditures. United States. Department of Defense United States Armed Forces Procurement. United States Armed Forces Weapons systems. United States Armed Forces Equipment. United States Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores. Strategy. Decision making. Stratégie. Prise de décision. decision making. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING Military Science. Armed Forces Equipment and supplies Armed Forces Ordnance and ordnance stores Armed Forces Procurement Armed Forces Weapons systems Decision making Expenditures, Public Strategy United States |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=1180789 |
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