Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan /:
The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estima...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Körperschaft: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2012.
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/190. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to front loaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases. |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012). "EUR." "July 2012." |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (60 pages) : color charts |
| Bibliographie: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-37). |
| ISBN: | 1475537921 9781475537925 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Batini, Nicoletta, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98093190 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / |c prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2012. | ||
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| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012). | ||
| 520 | |a The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to front loaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-37). | ||
| 500 | |a "EUR." | ||
| 500 | |a "July 2012." | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; A. Empirical Literature on The Effects of Fiscal Shocks; B. The Effects of Fiscal Policy: What do Models Say?; C. Fiscal Policy Under Special Conditions; III. Econometric Methodology; A. The Model; B. Testing for the TVAR Structure; C. Non-Linear Impulse Response Functions; D. Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers; E. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession; IV. Results; A. Non-Linear IRFS; B. Fiscal Multipliers; C. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession Following a Fiscal Shock; V. What Does This Mean in Practice? | |
| 505 | 8 | |a A. Model Used for The Debt SimulationsB. Debt simulations; VI. Concluding Remarks; VII. References; Figures; 1. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Euro Area; 2. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-France; 3. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Italy; 4. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Japan; 5. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-United States; 6. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Euro Area; 7. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-France; 8. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Italy. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 9. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Japan10. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-United States; 11. Average Cumulative Government Spending and Tax Multipliers; 12. Baseline Scenario (Adverse Growth Shock, No Fiscal Consolidation); 13. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Smooth Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario I); 14. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Frontloaded Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario II); 15. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; 16. Debt-To-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded (Spending-Cuts-Only Based). | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 17. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal18. Debt-to-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; Tables; 1. Tests for threshold VAR; 2. Cumulative Fiscal Multipliers; 3. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Expenditure Cut); 4. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Tax Hike); VIII. Data Appendix; A. Euro Area (1985 Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; B. France (1970 Q1 -- 2010 Q4):; C. Italy (1981 Q1 -- 2007 Q4):; D. Japan (1981Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; E. United States (1975 Q1 -- 2010 Q2). | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Multiplier (Economics) |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z Europe |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z Japan |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Multiplicateur (Économie politique) |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z Europe |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z Japon |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Economics |x Macroeconomics. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a POLITICAL SCIENCE |x Economic Conditions. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Fiscal policy |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Europe |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJxCxPbbk4CPJDQJb4r6rq | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Japan |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJkT7GyCmyjxytDfqk6Yfq | |
| 651 | 7 | |a United States |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Callegari, Giovanni, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2010009286 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Melina, Giovanni, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2011144328 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b European Department. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n86100166 | |
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| author | Batini, Nicoletta Callegari, Giovanni Melina, Giovanni |
| author_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98093190 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2010009286 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2011144328 |
| author_corporate | International Monetary Fund. European Department |
| author_corporate_role | |
| author_facet | Batini, Nicoletta Callegari, Giovanni Melina, Giovanni International Monetary Fund. European Department |
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| contents | Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; A. Empirical Literature on The Effects of Fiscal Shocks; B. The Effects of Fiscal Policy: What do Models Say?; C. Fiscal Policy Under Special Conditions; III. Econometric Methodology; A. The Model; B. Testing for the TVAR Structure; C. Non-Linear Impulse Response Functions; D. Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers; E. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession; IV. Results; A. Non-Linear IRFS; B. Fiscal Multipliers; C. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession Following a Fiscal Shock; V. What Does This Mean in Practice? A. Model Used for The Debt SimulationsB. Debt simulations; VI. Concluding Remarks; VII. References; Figures; 1. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Euro Area; 2. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-France; 3. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Italy; 4. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Japan; 5. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-United States; 6. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Euro Area; 7. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-France; 8. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Italy. 9. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Japan10. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-United States; 11. Average Cumulative Government Spending and Tax Multipliers; 12. Baseline Scenario (Adverse Growth Shock, No Fiscal Consolidation); 13. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Smooth Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario I); 14. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Frontloaded Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario II); 15. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; 16. Debt-To-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded (Spending-Cuts-Only Based). 17. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal18. Debt-to-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; Tables; 1. Tests for threshold VAR; 2. Cumulative Fiscal Multipliers; 3. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Expenditure Cut); 4. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Tax Hike); VIII. Data Appendix; A. Euro Area (1985 Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; B. France (1970 Q1 -- 2010 Q4):; C. Italy (1981 Q1 -- 2007 Q4):; D. Japan (1981Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; E. United States (1975 Q1 -- 2010 Q2). |
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| dewey-full | 339.52 |
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| dewey-ones | 339 - Macroeconomics and related topics |
| dewey-raw | 339.52 |
| dewey-search | 339.52 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| geographic | Europe fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJxCxPbbk4CPJDQJb4r6rq Japan fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJkT7GyCmyjxytDfqk6Yfq United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq |
| geographic_facet | Europe Japan United States |
| id | ZDB-4-EBA-ocn801825281 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-27T13:24:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n86100166 |
| isbn | 1475537921 9781475537925 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 801825281 |
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| owner_facet | MAIN DE-863 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 online resource (60 pages) : color charts |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBA |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSearch | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund, |
| record_format | marc |
| series | IMF working paper ; |
| series2 | IMF working paper ; |
| spelling | Batini, Nicoletta, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98093190 Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012. 1 online resource (60 pages) : color charts text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF working paper ; WP/12/190 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012). The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to front loaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases. Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-37). "EUR." "July 2012." Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; A. Empirical Literature on The Effects of Fiscal Shocks; B. The Effects of Fiscal Policy: What do Models Say?; C. Fiscal Policy Under Special Conditions; III. Econometric Methodology; A. The Model; B. Testing for the TVAR Structure; C. Non-Linear Impulse Response Functions; D. Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers; E. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession; IV. Results; A. Non-Linear IRFS; B. Fiscal Multipliers; C. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession Following a Fiscal Shock; V. What Does This Mean in Practice? A. Model Used for The Debt SimulationsB. Debt simulations; VI. Concluding Remarks; VII. References; Figures; 1. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Euro Area; 2. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-France; 3. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Italy; 4. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Japan; 5. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-United States; 6. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Euro Area; 7. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-France; 8. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Italy. 9. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Japan10. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-United States; 11. Average Cumulative Government Spending and Tax Multipliers; 12. Baseline Scenario (Adverse Growth Shock, No Fiscal Consolidation); 13. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Smooth Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario I); 14. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Frontloaded Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario II); 15. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; 16. Debt-To-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded (Spending-Cuts-Only Based). 17. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal18. Debt-to-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; Tables; 1. Tests for threshold VAR; 2. Cumulative Fiscal Multipliers; 3. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Expenditure Cut); 4. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Tax Hike); VIII. Data Appendix; A. Euro Area (1985 Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; B. France (1970 Q1 -- 2010 Q4):; C. Italy (1981 Q1 -- 2007 Q4):; D. Japan (1981Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; E. United States (1975 Q1 -- 2010 Q2). Multiplier (Economics) Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy Europe Econometric models. Fiscal policy Japan Econometric models. Multiplicateur (Économie politique) Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Europe Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Japon Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Economics Macroeconomics. bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE Economic Conditions. bisacsh Fiscal policy Econometric models fast Europe fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJxCxPbbk4CPJDQJb4r6rq Japan fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJkT7GyCmyjxytDfqk6Yfq United States fast https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq Callegari, Giovanni, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2010009286 Melina, Giovanni, author. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2011144328 International Monetary Fund. European Department. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n86100166 has work: Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFMbmcY8mCpfYcY76JJCcP https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork IMF working paper ; WP/12/190. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 FWS01 ZDB-4-EBA FWS_PDA_EBA https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568195 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Batini, Nicoletta Callegari, Giovanni Melina, Giovanni Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / IMF working paper ; Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; A. Empirical Literature on The Effects of Fiscal Shocks; B. The Effects of Fiscal Policy: What do Models Say?; C. Fiscal Policy Under Special Conditions; III. Econometric Methodology; A. The Model; B. Testing for the TVAR Structure; C. Non-Linear Impulse Response Functions; D. Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers; E. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession; IV. Results; A. Non-Linear IRFS; B. Fiscal Multipliers; C. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession Following a Fiscal Shock; V. What Does This Mean in Practice? A. Model Used for The Debt SimulationsB. Debt simulations; VI. Concluding Remarks; VII. References; Figures; 1. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Euro Area; 2. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-France; 3. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Italy; 4. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-Japan; 5. Average Responses to Shocks to Government Spending-United States; 6. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Euro Area; 7. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-France; 8. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Italy. 9. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-Japan10. Average Responses to Shocks to Net Taxes-United States; 11. Average Cumulative Government Spending and Tax Multipliers; 12. Baseline Scenario (Adverse Growth Shock, No Fiscal Consolidation); 13. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Smooth Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario I); 14. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Following a Frontloaded Fiscal Consolidation (Scenario II); 15. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; 16. Debt-To-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded (Spending-Cuts-Only Based). 17. Debt-to-GDP Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal18. Debt-to-Gdp Ratio-Difference Between Frontloaded and Smooth Fiscal; Tables; 1. Tests for threshold VAR; 2. Cumulative Fiscal Multipliers; 3. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Expenditure Cut); 4. Conditional Probabilities of a Recession (Tax Hike); VIII. Data Appendix; A. Euro Area (1985 Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; B. France (1970 Q1 -- 2010 Q4):; C. Italy (1981 Q1 -- 2007 Q4):; D. Japan (1981Q1 -- 2009 Q4):; E. United States (1975 Q1 -- 2010 Q2). Multiplier (Economics) Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy Europe Econometric models. Fiscal policy Japan Econometric models. Multiplicateur (Économie politique) Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Europe Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Japon Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Economics Macroeconomics. bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE Economic Conditions. bisacsh Fiscal policy Econometric models fast |
| title | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / |
| title_auth | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / |
| title_exact_search | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / |
| title_full | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina. |
| title_fullStr | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina. |
| title_short | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan / |
| title_sort | successful austerity in the united states europe and japan |
| topic | Multiplier (Economics) Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy Europe Econometric models. Fiscal policy Japan Econometric models. Multiplicateur (Économie politique) Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Europe Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Japon Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Economics Macroeconomics. bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE Economic Conditions. bisacsh Fiscal policy Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | Multiplier (Economics) Econometric models. Fiscal policy United States Econometric models. Fiscal policy Europe Econometric models. Fiscal policy Japan Econometric models. Multiplicateur (Économie politique) Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale États-Unis Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Europe Modèles économétriques. Politique fiscale Japon Modèles économétriques. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Economics Macroeconomics. POLITICAL SCIENCE Economic Conditions. Fiscal policy Econometric models Europe Japan United States |
| url | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568195 |
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