Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy:
This paper develops and applies a simple "conditional growth" framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point recent empirical evidence about the importance of total factor productivity and human capital in explaining current cross-country disp...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2009
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.663 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper develops and applies a simple "conditional growth" framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point recent empirical evidence about the importance of total factor productivity and human capital in explaining current cross-country disparities in GDP per capita levels. Other distinct features of the projection framework include human capital projections by cohorts and implicit allowance for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on future growth in employment levels. In the baseline projection, world GDP would grow in PPP terms by about 3 ¾ % per year on average over the period 2005-2050. When expressed in constant market exchange rates, taking into account future Balassa-Samuelson effects, this projection falls roughly in the middle of the range of long-run scenarios recently developed in the context of greenhouse gas emission projections. The sensitivity of the projection to total factor productivity and population growth assumptions is significant, however, and compounds with deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (29 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/227205684023 |
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| indexdate | 2024-11-26T14:55:53Z |
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| spelling | Duval, Romain VerfasserIn aut Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy Romain, Duval and Christine, de la Maisonneuve = Un cadre d'analyse et des scénarios de long terme pour l'économie mondiale / Romain, Duval et Christine, de la Maisonneuve Un cadre d'analyse et des scénarios de long terme pour l'économie mondiale Paris OECD Publishing 2009 1 Online-Ressource (29 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.663 This paper develops and applies a simple "conditional growth" framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point recent empirical evidence about the importance of total factor productivity and human capital in explaining current cross-country disparities in GDP per capita levels. Other distinct features of the projection framework include human capital projections by cohorts and implicit allowance for the impact of ageing and potential labour market and pension reforms on future growth in employment levels. In the baseline projection, world GDP would grow in PPP terms by about 3 ¾ % per year on average over the period 2005-2050. When expressed in constant market exchange rates, taking into account future Balassa-Samuelson effects, this projection falls roughly in the middle of the range of long-run scenarios recently developed in the context of greenhouse gas emission projections. The sensitivity of the projection to total factor productivity and population growth assumptions is significant, however, and compounds with deeper sources of uncertainty such as model and parameter uncertainty. Economics de la Maisonneuve, Christine MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/227205684023 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Duval, Romain Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy Economics |
| title | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy |
| title_alt | Un cadre d'analyse et des scénarios de long terme pour l'économie mondiale |
| title_auth | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy |
| title_exact_search | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy |
| title_full | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy Romain, Duval and Christine, de la Maisonneuve = Un cadre d'analyse et des scénarios de long terme pour l'économie mondiale / Romain, Duval et Christine, de la Maisonneuve |
| title_fullStr | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy Romain, Duval and Christine, de la Maisonneuve = Un cadre d'analyse et des scénarios de long terme pour l'économie mondiale / Romain, Duval et Christine, de la Maisonneuve |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy Romain, Duval and Christine, de la Maisonneuve = Un cadre d'analyse et des scénarios de long terme pour l'économie mondiale / Romain, Duval et Christine, de la Maisonneuve |
| title_short | Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy |
| title_sort | long run gdp growth framework and scenarios for the world economy |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/227205684023 |
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