Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy:
This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographic...
Gespeichert in:
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| Weitere Verfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2014
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.1142 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow-down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (41 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5jxrmdk5f86j-en |
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| 520 | |a This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow-down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies. | ||
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| spelling | Château, Jean VerfasserIn aut Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy Jean, Château ... [et al] = Tendances des échanges dans l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2060 / Jean, Château ... [et al] Tendances des échanges dans l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2060 Paris OECD Publishing 2014 1 Online-Ressource (41 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.1142 This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow-down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies. Economics Trade Fontagné, Lionel MitwirkendeR ctb Fouré, Jean MitwirkendeR ctb Johansson, Åsa MitwirkendeR ctb Olaberría, Eduardo MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/5jxrmdk5f86j-en Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Château, Jean Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy Economics Trade |
| title | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy |
| title_alt | Tendances des échanges dans l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2060 |
| title_auth | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy |
| title_exact_search | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy |
| title_full | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy Jean, Château ... [et al] = Tendances des échanges dans l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2060 / Jean, Château ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy Jean, Château ... [et al] = Tendances des échanges dans l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2060 / Jean, Château ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy Jean, Château ... [et al] = Tendances des échanges dans l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2060 / Jean, Château ... [et al] |
| title_short | Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy |
| title_sort | trade patterns in the 2060 world economy |
| topic | Economics Trade |
| topic_facet | Economics Trade |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5jxrmdk5f86j-en |
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