Estimating a Supply Block for Poland:
The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance with...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
no.601 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance with the OECD approach. The structural unemployment rate is derived from a Phillips-curve equation and, along with working age population, is combined with filter-based estimates of trend labour productivity, participation rates and hours worked per employee to generate measures of potential output. The performance of the model in capturing price pressures underlying the growth trajectory of the Polish economy is assessed, and measures of cyclically-adjusted general government net lending are provided. Based on the OECD autumn 2007 projections for 2008 and 2009, out-of-sample simulations derived from the Phillips-curve model suggest that CPI inflation is likely to continue to trend upward, exceeding the central bank?s inflation target by a wide margin. |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (40 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. |
| DOI: | 10.1787/243218687811 |
Internformat
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| indexdate | 2024-07-16T15:07:17Z |
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| language | English |
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| spelling | Kierzenkowski, Rafal VerfasserIn aut Estimating a Supply Block for Poland Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] = Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne / Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne Paris OECD Publishing 2008 1 Online-Ressource (40 p.) 21 x 29.7cm. Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers no.601 The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance with the OECD approach. The structural unemployment rate is derived from a Phillips-curve equation and, along with working age population, is combined with filter-based estimates of trend labour productivity, participation rates and hours worked per employee to generate measures of potential output. The performance of the model in capturing price pressures underlying the growth trajectory of the Polish economy is assessed, and measures of cyclically-adjusted general government net lending are provided. Based on the OECD autumn 2007 projections for 2008 and 2009, out-of-sample simulations derived from the Phillips-curve model suggest that CPI inflation is likely to continue to trend upward, exceeding the central bank?s inflation target by a wide margin. Economics Poland Ollivaud, Patrice MitwirkendeR ctb Sédillot, Franck MitwirkendeR ctb Briard, Philippe MitwirkendeR ctb FWS01 ZDB-13-SOC FWS_PDA_SOC https://doi.org/10.1787/243218687811 Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Kierzenkowski, Rafal Estimating a Supply Block for Poland Economics Poland |
| title | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland |
| title_alt | Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne |
| title_auth | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland |
| title_exact_search | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland |
| title_full | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] = Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne / Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] = Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne / Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] = Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne / Rafal, Kierzenkowski ... [et al] |
| title_short | Estimating a Supply Block for Poland |
| title_sort | estimating a supply block for poland |
| topic | Economics Poland |
| topic_facet | Economics Poland |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/243218687811 |
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