Planning for the aftermath: assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War
U.S. policy choices made at the conclusions of past wars have had enduring consequences. Although there is no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war at the time of this writing in late 2023, U.S. policymakers should begin considering postwar Russia strategy now. The authors of this report address th...
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| Sprache: | English |
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RAND
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| Schriftenreihe: | Report
A2510-2 |
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| Online-Zugang: | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2510-2 Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | U.S. policy choices made at the conclusions of past wars have had enduring consequences. Although there is no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war at the time of this writing in late 2023, U.S. policymakers should begin considering postwar Russia strategy now. The authors of this report address this issue through an alternative futures analysis. Planning for after the war is complicated by significant uncertainty: Neither the conflict's trajectory nor the international climate at the war's end can be predicted with confidence. Given this uncertainty, the implications of U.S. strategic choices must be explored in different contexts. The authors develop two ideal-type postwar worlds, as defined by the outcome of the war and the character of the broader international environment: a less favorable world and a more favorable world. They also propose two ideal-type options for postwar U.S. strategy toward Russia, a hardline approach and a less hardline approach. Then, they consider how each strategy would play out in each world over the course of the decade after the war ends, yielding four alternative futures. They draw on the history of U.S.-Russia relations and the literatures on rivalries, interstate conflict, and alliances to assess the implications of each future for U.S. interests |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF document (title page; viewed February 12, 2024) "RAND NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION |
| Beschreibung: | xii, 140 Seiten Illustrationen 23 cm |
| ISBN: | 9781977412836 1977412831 |
| DOI: | 10.7249/RRA2510-2 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Anticipating the Postwar World -- Chapter Three: Options for Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia -- Chapter Four: Alternative Postwar Futures -- Chapter Five: Implications for U.S. Interests -- Chapter Six: Conclusion | |
| 520 | 3 | |a U.S. policy choices made at the conclusions of past wars have had enduring consequences. Although there is no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war at the time of this writing in late 2023, U.S. policymakers should begin considering postwar Russia strategy now. The authors of this report address this issue through an alternative futures analysis. Planning for after the war is complicated by significant uncertainty: Neither the conflict's trajectory nor the international climate at the war's end can be predicted with confidence. Given this uncertainty, the implications of U.S. strategic choices must be explored in different contexts. The authors develop two ideal-type postwar worlds, as defined by the outcome of the war and the character of the broader international environment: a less favorable world and a more favorable world. They also propose two ideal-type options for postwar U.S. strategy toward Russia, a hardline approach and a less hardline approach. Then, they consider how each strategy would play out in each world over the course of the decade after the war ends, yielding four alternative futures. They draw on the history of U.S.-Russia relations and the literatures on rivalries, interstate conflict, and alliances to assess the implications of each future for U.S. interests | |
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Contents About This Report.iii Summary. v Figures, Tables, and Boxes. xi CHAPTER 1 Introduction. 1 The Importance of Planning for the Postwar Period. 2 Overview of Methodological Approach.3 CHAPTER 2 Anticipating the Postwar World. 5 Approach to Generating Postwar Worlds. 5 World A: After the Less Favorable War.9 World B: After the More Favorable War . 16 CHAPTER 3 Options for Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia. 23 The Spectrum of Approaches to Relations with U.S. Rivals.23 Framework for Postwar Strategy Toward Russia. 25 Applying the Framework. 26 Hardline Approach. 28 Less Hardline
Approach. 33 CHAPTER 4 Alternative Postwar Futures. 39 Future 1: Pervasive Instability. 40 Future 2: Localized Instability. 50 Future 3: Cold War 2.0. 58 Future 4: Cold Peace.65 CHAPTER 5 Implications for U.S. Interests. 73 U.S. Interests. 73 U.S. Position in the Global Distribution of Power . 75 IX
Planning for the Aftermath Avoiding a Major Power Conflict . 86 Strength of the U.S. Economy. 98 Ukraine’s Security and Prosperity . 102 Minimizing Conflict Risk in Other Non-NATO Former Soviet States . 113 Comparing the Futures. 116 CHAPTER 6 Conclusion. 121 Analytical Observations. 121 Conclusion. 128 Abbreviations. 129 References. 131 X
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Scheufele, and Yannic Stucki, “The Economic Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on European Countries—a SVAR Approach,” SSRN Working Paper No. 04-2024, September 22,2023. Cable, Jonathan, “Worsening Euro Zone Business Downturn Reignites Recession Fears,” Reuters, July 24,2023. Charap, Samuel, “An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 102, No. 4, July-August 2023. 131
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Content of the Evolving Notion of War in the 21st Century,” Military Thought, Vol. 1, 2017. Chernenko, Elena, “Vladimir Putin’s Letter Reached the Right Addressee,” Kommersant, November 27,2019. Clauset, Aaron, “Trends and Fluctuations in the Severity of Interstate Wars,” Science Advances, Vol. 4, No. 2, February 2018. Cohen, Patricia, “Russia’s Economy Is Increasingly Structured Around Its War in Ukraine,” New York Times, October 9,2023. Colton, Timothy, “Ukraine and Russia: War and Political Regimes,” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 33, No. 4, October 2022. Copeland, Dale C., The Origins of Major War, Cornell University Press, 2000. Copp, Tara, “How Ukraine War Has Shaped US Planning for a China Conflict,” Associated Press, February 16,2023. 132
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Vladimir, “Preserving Strategic Stability Amid U.S.-Russian Confrontation,” Carnegie Moscow Center, February 2019. European Council, “Infographie—Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy,” last reviewed October 12,2023. Evans, Alexandra T., Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War, Vol. 2: Supporting Material on Historical Great Power Wars, RAND Corporation, RR-A591-2, 2023. As of November 29, 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA591-2.html Eversden, Andrew, “Missile Defense Chief‘Confident’ Poland’s Aegis Ashore Ready in 2023,” Breaking Defense, August 12,2022. Faulconbridge, Guy, “Blood and Billions: The Cost of Russia’s War in Ukraine,” Reuters, August 23,2023. 133
Planning for the Aftermath Fearon, James D., “Two States, Two Types, Two Actions,” Security Studies, Vol. 20, No. 3,2011. Feickert, Andrew, The U.S. Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), Congressional Research Service, IF 11991, updated September 15,2023a. Feickert, Andrew, The U.S. Army’s Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) System (Formerly Mid-Range Capabilities [MRC] System), Congressional Research Service, IF12135, updated November 28,2023b. Felbermayr, Gabriel, Hendrik Mahlkow, and Alexander Sandkamp, “Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-Run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West,” Empirica: Journal of European Economics, Vol. 50, No. 1, February 2023. Fix, Liana, and Michael Kimmage, “How China Could Save Putin’s War in Ukraine: The Logic—and Consequences—of Chinese Military Support for Russia,” Foreign Affairs, April 26,2023. Fortna, Virginia Page, “Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace,” International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 2, Spring 2003. Fortna, Virginia Page, Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace, Princeton University Press, 2004a. Fortna, Virginia Page, “Interstate Peacekeeping: Causal Mechanisms and Empirical Effects,” World Politics, Vol. 56, No. 4, July 2004b. Frederick, Bryan, Samuel Charap, Scott Boston, Stephen J. Flanagan, Michael J. Mazarr, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, and Karl P. Mueller, Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War, RAND Corporation, PE-A1971-1,2022. As of November 29,2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1971-l.html Frederick, Bryan, Mark Cozad, and
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Planning for the Aftermath Priebe, Miranda, Bryan Frederick, Anika Binnendijk, Alexandra T. Evans, Karl P. Mueller, Cortez A. Cooper III, James Benkowski, Asha Clark, and Stephanie Anne Pillion, Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War, Vol. 1: Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations, RAND Corporation, RR-A591-1,2023. As of November 29,2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA591-l.html Priebe, Miranda, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra T. Evans, Samuel Charap, Gabrielle Tarini, and Bryan Rooney, Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach, RAND Corporation, RR-A1862-1,2023. As of November 29,2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1862-l.html Quackenbush, Stephen L, “The Problem with Accidental War,” Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 40, No. 6, November 2023. Radin, Andrew, Andrew Scobell, Elina Treyger, J. D. Williams, Logan Ma, Howard J. Shatz, Sean Μ. Zeigler, Eugeniu Han, and Clint Reach, ChinaRussia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States, RAND Corporation, RR-3067-A, 2021. As of November 29, 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3067.html Reiter, Dan, “Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen,” International Security, Vol. 20, No. 2, Fall 1995. Reporters Without Borders, “RSF’s 2022 World Press Freedom Index: A New Era of Polarisation,” May 3,2022. Rogoff, Kenneth, “The Long-Lasting Economic Shock of War,” International Monetary Fund, March 2023. Rooney, Bryan, Grant Johnson, Tobias
Sytsma, and Miranda Priebe, Does the U.S. Economy Benefitfrom U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? RAND Corporation, RR-A739-5,2022. As of November 29,2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.html Roque, Ashley, “To Combat China, Pentagon Eyeing Multi-Year Munition Buys in FY24,” Breaking Defense, March 13,2023. “Russia’s Defense Chief Proposes Re-Establishing Moscow, Leningrad Military Districts,” TASS, December 21,2022. Rustamova, Farida, “Ukraine’s 10-Point Plan,” Faridaily blog, March 29,2022. As of November 29,2023: https://faridaily.substack.eom/p/ukraines-10-point-plan Saine, Cindy, “Biden Cites US Resolve in Facing Aggression from Russia and China,” Voice of America, February 8,2023. Schelling, Thomas C., and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, Pergamon-Brassey’s, 1985. 138
References Schweller, Randall L., “Domestic Structure and Preventive War: Are Democracies More Pacific?” World Politics, Vol. 44, No. 2, January 1992. Sechser, Todd S., and Matthew Fuhrmann, “Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail,” International Organization, Vol. 67, No. 1, Winter 2013. Snyder, Glenn H„ “The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics,” World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4, July 1984. Snyder, Ryan, Benoit Pelopidas, Keir A. Lieber, and Daryl G. Press, “Correspondence: New Era or New Error? Technology and the Future of Deterrence,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 3, Winter 2018-2019. Stueck, William, The Korean War: An International History, Princeton University Press, 1995. Stueck, William, “Conclusion,” in William Stueck, ed., The Korean War in World History, University Press of Kentucky, 2004. Sullivan, Jake, “Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for the Arms Control Association (АСА) Annual Forum,” June 2,2023. Talmadge, Caitlin, “Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States,” International Security, Vol. 41, No. 4, Spring 2017. Trachtenberg, Marc, “The ‘Accidental War’ Question,” February 14, 2000. “Ukraine War: Putin Confirms First Nuclear Weapons Moved to Belarus,” BBC News, June 17, 2023. U.S. Department of Defense, 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, 2022a. U.S. Department of Defense, “Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby on Security Assistance to Ukraine,” March 8, 2022b. U.S. Department of Defense, “Fact Sheet—U.S. Defense Contributions to Europe,” June
29,2022c. U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, Annual Report to Congress, November 29,2022d. U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the General Counsel, Department of Defense Law of War Manual, updated 2016. Van Evera, Stephen, Causes of War: Structures of Power and the Roots of International Conflict, Cornell University Press, 1999. Warrick, Joby, “China Is Building More Than 100 New Missile Silos in Its Western Desert, Analysts Say,” Washington Post, June 30,2021. Weisiger, Alex, and Keren Yarhi-Milo, “Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics,” International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2, Spring 2015. 139
Planning for the Aftermath Werner, Suzanne, “The Precarious Nature of Peace: Resolving the Issues, Enforcing the Settlement, and Renegotiating the Terms,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 43, No. 3, July 1999. Wilkening, Dean A., “Strategic Stability Between the United States and Russia,” in David Ochmanek and Michael Sulmeyer, eds., Challenges in U.S. National Security Policy: A Festschrift Honoring Edward L. (Ted) Warner, RAND Corporation, CP-765-RAS, 2014. As of November 29,2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/corporate_pubs/CP765.html World Bank, Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment: February 2022February 2023,2023. Ziegler, Charles E., “A Crisis of Diverging Perspectives: U.S.-Russian Relations and the Security Dilemma,” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 4, No. 1, Winter 2020-2021. Г Bayorische I SteateblNtothek München 140 |
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| author | Charap, Samuel 1980- Priebe, Miranda |
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| contents | Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Anticipating the Postwar World -- Chapter Three: Options for Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia -- Chapter Four: Alternative Postwar Futures -- Chapter Five: Implications for U.S. Interests -- Chapter Six: Conclusion |
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| spelling | Charap, Samuel 1980- Verfasser (DE-588)1140057758 aut Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe Santa Monica, CA RAND 2024 xii, 140 Seiten Illustrationen 23 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia c rdamedia nc rdacarrier cr rdacarrier Report A2510-2 Title from PDF document (title page; viewed February 12, 2024) "RAND NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Anticipating the Postwar World -- Chapter Three: Options for Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia -- Chapter Four: Alternative Postwar Futures -- Chapter Five: Implications for U.S. Interests -- Chapter Six: Conclusion U.S. policy choices made at the conclusions of past wars have had enduring consequences. Although there is no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war at the time of this writing in late 2023, U.S. policymakers should begin considering postwar Russia strategy now. The authors of this report address this issue through an alternative futures analysis. Planning for after the war is complicated by significant uncertainty: Neither the conflict's trajectory nor the international climate at the war's end can be predicted with confidence. Given this uncertainty, the implications of U.S. strategic choices must be explored in different contexts. The authors develop two ideal-type postwar worlds, as defined by the outcome of the war and the character of the broader international environment: a less favorable world and a more favorable world. They also propose two ideal-type options for postwar U.S. strategy toward Russia, a hardline approach and a less hardline approach. Then, they consider how each strategy would play out in each world over the course of the decade after the war ends, yielding four alternative futures. They draw on the history of U.S.-Russia relations and the literatures on rivalries, interstate conflict, and alliances to assess the implications of each future for U.S. interests Prognose gnd rswk-swf Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf North Atlantic Treaty Organization National security / United States Strategy Security, International Russian Invasion of Ukraine, 2022 United States / Military policy United States / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / United States Russia Security Cooperation Ukraine United States Warfare and Military Operations Stratégie Invasion russe de l'Ukraine, 2022- États-Unis / Relations extérieures / Russie HISTORY / Europe / General HISTORY / Europe / Eastern HISTORY / United States / General POLITICAL SCIENCE / Terrorism Cooperation Defense Planning International Security NATO Postwar Scenarios USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 s Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Prognose z DE-604 Priebe, Miranda Verfasser (DE-588)1152015044 aut https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2510-2 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034976758&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034976758&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Charap, Samuel 1980- Priebe, Miranda Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Anticipating the Postwar World -- Chapter Three: Options for Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia -- Chapter Four: Alternative Postwar Futures -- Chapter Five: Implications for U.S. Interests -- Chapter Six: Conclusion Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4057952-9 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War |
| title_auth | Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War |
| title_exact_search | Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Planning for the Aftermath Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War |
| title_full | Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe |
| title_fullStr | Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Planning for the aftermath assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe |
| title_short | Planning for the aftermath |
| title_sort | planning for the aftermath assessing options for u s strategy toward russia after the ukraine war |
| title_sub | assessing options for U.S. strategy toward Russia after the Ukraine War |
| topic | Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Strategie USA Russland |
| url | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2510-2 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034976758&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034976758&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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