WINE, DOG FOOD AND BOSNIAN CLICHÉS. False ideas and why they matter (ESI - European Stability Initiative, 2017)
In 2008 the former High Representative Paddy Ashdown warned that "there is a real threat of Bosnia breaking up again ... even a brief spell of wrong-headedness can quickly become the prelude to enduring tragedy." In 2011 Ashdown warned the EU that unless it acted decisively, "bloodshed will return to Bosnia." In 2013 two US-based analysts warned that Bosnia remained "at war" and that "the dynamics of war-era polarization still rage, captive to venal leadership and a defunct constitutional order." In May 2015 an article in Foreign Policy argued that Bosnia faces "deeper and nearly irreparable injury." In November 2015 Ashdown warned about "things going to become worse", with the "potential for a dangerous and even tragical situation. || Clichés are terrible guides to action. They distort how other countries deal with Bosnia. They led the EU to conclude for many years, against actual experience, that Bosnian leaders were incapable of coordinating their responses to EU conditionality. Clichés divert limited attention from real problems and how to form reform coalitions to address them. It is time to take a closer look