Anticipating flashpoints with Russia: patterns and drivers
Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had many ongoing and potential disputes with other countries, motivated by a variety of territorial, political, and economic issues. Furthermore, as Moscow has sought to expand its international role, it has increased Rus...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica, Calif.
Rand Corporation
2023
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA791-1/RAND_RRA791-1.pdf |
| Zusammenfassung: | Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had many ongoing and potential disputes with other countries, motivated by a variety of territorial, political, and economic issues. Furthermore, as Moscow has sought to expand its international role, it has increased Russian involvement in civil conflicts, using both overt and covert means. Russian activity in Syria and Libya has raised the prospect that the United States might find itself militarily entangled with Russia in various global hotspots. Therefore, the authors of this report sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints with countries in and near the U.S. Army Europe area of responsibility that could entangle the United States and present distinct military challenges to the U.S. Army. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, the authors identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They then leveraged these findings to derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. The authors also examined two additional potential drivers of conflict not captured in historical data--Russia's use of private military contractors and its operations in the information environment--to see whether either might lead to a flashpoint in the future |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 221 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9781977407948 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Anticipating flashpoints with Russia |b patterns and drivers |c Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak |
| 264 | 1 | |a Santa Monica, Calif. |b Rand Corporation |c 2023 | |
| 300 | |a XVI, 221 Seiten |b Illustrationen, Karten | ||
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| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Russia's Disputes and Conflicts -- Chapter Three: Dispute Onset and Escalation: A Qualitative Analysis -- Chapter Four: Quantitative Analysis of Militarized Interstate Dispute Onset -- Chapter Five: Additional Drivers of Escalation -- Chapter Six: Conclusions and Implications for the Army -- Appendix A: Russia's Militarized Disputes, 1992-2010 -- Appendix B: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Ukraine Intervention, 2014 -- Appendix C: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Russia-Georgia War, 2008 -- Appendix D: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997 -- Appendix E: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Syrian Civil War, 2015-ongoing -- Appendix F: Narratives for Ukrainian and Georgian Disputes -- Appendix G: Coding Justification for PMC Cases | |
| 520 | 3 | |a Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had many ongoing and potential disputes with other countries, motivated by a variety of territorial, political, and economic issues. Furthermore, as Moscow has sought to expand its international role, it has increased Russian involvement in civil conflicts, using both overt and covert means. Russian activity in Syria and Libya has raised the prospect that the United States might find itself militarily entangled with Russia in various global hotspots. Therefore, the authors of this report sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints with countries in and near the U.S. Army Europe area of responsibility that could entangle the United States and present distinct military challenges to the U.S. Army. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, the authors identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They then leveraged these findings to derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. The authors also examined two additional potential drivers of conflict not captured in historical data--Russia's use of private military contractors and its operations in the information environment--to see whether either might lead to a flashpoint in the future | |
| 648 | 7 | |a Geschichte 1992-2019 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
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| 653 | 0 | |a South Ossetia War, 2008 | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Abkhazia (Georgia) / History / Uprising, 1992-1993 | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Syria / History / Civil War, 2011- | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Military policy / Case studies | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Ukraine / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Ukraine | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Georgia (Republic) / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Georgia (Republic) | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Tajikistan / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Tajikistan | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Syria / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Syria | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Cyber Warfare | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Geopolitical Strategic Competition | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Georgia (country) | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Low-Intensity Conflict | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Military Strategy | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Russia | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Syria | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Ukraine | |
| 653 | 0 | |a United States | |
| 653 | 0 | |a United States Army | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Russland |0 (DE-588)4076899-5 |D g |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Bewaffneter Konflikt |0 (DE-588)4137568-3 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Geschichte 1992-2019 |A z |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zeigler, Sean M. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1150534788 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chindea, Irina A. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1196817154 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dunigan, Molly |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1070594571 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Demus, Alyssa |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1162562900 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Drennan, John |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1203094132 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 0 | |a Landgraf, Walter F. |b III |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Welch, Jonathan |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1211745724 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Johnson, Grant |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fauerbach, Gregory Weider |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vest, Nathan |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Shostak, Melissa |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA791-1/RAND_RRA791-1.pdf |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1805081874884722688 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | |
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Charap, Samuel 1980- Zeigler, Sean M. Chindea, Irina A. Dunigan, Molly Demus, Alyssa Drennan, John Landgraf, Walter F. III Welch, Jonathan Johnson, Grant Fauerbach, Gregory Weider Vest, Nathan Shostak, Melissa |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1140057758 (DE-588)1150534788 (DE-588)1196817154 (DE-588)1070594571 (DE-588)1162562900 (DE-588)1203094132 (DE-588)1211745724 |
| author_facet | Charap, Samuel 1980- Zeigler, Sean M. Chindea, Irina A. Dunigan, Molly Demus, Alyssa Drennan, John Landgraf, Walter F. III Welch, Jonathan Johnson, Grant Fauerbach, Gregory Weider Vest, Nathan Shostak, Melissa |
| author_role | aut aut aut aut aut aut aut aut aut aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Charap, Samuel 1980- |
| author_variant | s c sc s m z sm smz i a c ia iac m d md a d ad j d jd w f l wf wfl j w jw g j gj g w f gw gwf n v nv m s ms |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049400187 |
| contents | Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Russia's Disputes and Conflicts -- Chapter Three: Dispute Onset and Escalation: A Qualitative Analysis -- Chapter Four: Quantitative Analysis of Militarized Interstate Dispute Onset -- Chapter Five: Additional Drivers of Escalation -- Chapter Six: Conclusions and Implications for the Army -- Appendix A: Russia's Militarized Disputes, 1992-2010 -- Appendix B: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Ukraine Intervention, 2014 -- Appendix C: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Russia-Georgia War, 2008 -- Appendix D: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997 -- Appendix E: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Syrian Civil War, 2015-ongoing -- Appendix F: Narratives for Ukrainian and Georgian Disputes -- Appendix G: Coding Justification for PMC Cases |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1429566530 (DE-599)BVBBV049400187 |
| era | Geschichte 1992-2019 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1992-2019 |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV049400187 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T23:03:38Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-20T07:23:42Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781977407948 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034727446 |
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| physical | XVI, 221 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten |
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| publisher | Rand Corporation |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Charap, Samuel 1980- Verfasser (DE-588)1140057758 aut Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak Santa Monica, Calif. Rand Corporation 2023 XVI, 221 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Russia's Disputes and Conflicts -- Chapter Three: Dispute Onset and Escalation: A Qualitative Analysis -- Chapter Four: Quantitative Analysis of Militarized Interstate Dispute Onset -- Chapter Five: Additional Drivers of Escalation -- Chapter Six: Conclusions and Implications for the Army -- Appendix A: Russia's Militarized Disputes, 1992-2010 -- Appendix B: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Ukraine Intervention, 2014 -- Appendix C: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Russia-Georgia War, 2008 -- Appendix D: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997 -- Appendix E: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Syrian Civil War, 2015-ongoing -- Appendix F: Narratives for Ukrainian and Georgian Disputes -- Appendix G: Coding Justification for PMC Cases Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had many ongoing and potential disputes with other countries, motivated by a variety of territorial, political, and economic issues. Furthermore, as Moscow has sought to expand its international role, it has increased Russian involvement in civil conflicts, using both overt and covert means. Russian activity in Syria and Libya has raised the prospect that the United States might find itself militarily entangled with Russia in various global hotspots. Therefore, the authors of this report sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints with countries in and near the U.S. Army Europe area of responsibility that could entangle the United States and present distinct military challenges to the U.S. Army. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, the authors identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They then leveraged these findings to derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. The authors also examined two additional potential drivers of conflict not captured in historical data--Russia's use of private military contractors and its operations in the information environment--to see whether either might lead to a flashpoint in the future Geschichte 1992-2019 gnd rswk-swf Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Ukraine Conflict, 2014- South Ossetia War, 2008 Abkhazia (Georgia) / History / Uprising, 1992-1993 Syria / History / Civil War, 2011- Russia (Federation) / Military policy / Case studies Ukraine / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Ukraine Georgia (Republic) / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Georgia (Republic) Tajikistan / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Tajikistan Syria / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / Syria Cyber Warfare Geopolitical Strategic Competition Georgia (country) Low-Intensity Conflict Military Strategy Russia Syria Ukraine United States United States Army Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 s Geschichte 1992-2019 z DE-604 Zeigler, Sean M. Verfasser (DE-588)1150534788 aut Chindea, Irina A. Verfasser (DE-588)1196817154 aut Dunigan, Molly Verfasser (DE-588)1070594571 aut Demus, Alyssa Verfasser (DE-588)1162562900 aut Drennan, John Verfasser (DE-588)1203094132 aut Landgraf, Walter F. III Verfasser aut Welch, Jonathan Verfasser (DE-588)1211745724 aut Johnson, Grant Verfasser aut Fauerbach, Gregory Weider Verfasser aut Vest, Nathan Verfasser aut Shostak, Melissa Verfasser aut https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA791-1/RAND_RRA791-1.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Charap, Samuel 1980- Zeigler, Sean M. Chindea, Irina A. Dunigan, Molly Demus, Alyssa Drennan, John Landgraf, Walter F. III Welch, Jonathan Johnson, Grant Fauerbach, Gregory Weider Vest, Nathan Shostak, Melissa Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Russia's Disputes and Conflicts -- Chapter Three: Dispute Onset and Escalation: A Qualitative Analysis -- Chapter Four: Quantitative Analysis of Militarized Interstate Dispute Onset -- Chapter Five: Additional Drivers of Escalation -- Chapter Six: Conclusions and Implications for the Army -- Appendix A: Russia's Militarized Disputes, 1992-2010 -- Appendix B: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Ukraine Intervention, 2014 -- Appendix C: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Russia-Georgia War, 2008 -- Appendix D: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997 -- Appendix E: Militarized Conflict Case Study: Syrian Civil War, 2015-ongoing -- Appendix F: Narratives for Ukrainian and Georgian Disputes -- Appendix G: Coding Justification for PMC Cases Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137568-3 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers |
| title_auth | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers |
| title_exact_search | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers |
| title_full | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak |
| title_fullStr | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia patterns and drivers Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak |
| title_short | Anticipating flashpoints with Russia |
| title_sort | anticipating flashpoints with russia patterns and drivers |
| title_sub | patterns and drivers |
| topic | Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bewaffneter Konflikt Russland |
| url | https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA791-1/RAND_RRA791-1.pdf |
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