Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East:
The United States is in the midst of a shift in strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. For centuries, the Middle East has served as a theater of competition between the world's great powers. Today's most prominent competitor...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Santa Monica, Calif.
Rand Corporation
[2023]
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| Schriftenreihe: | [Research report]
RR-A969-3 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | The United States is in the midst of a shift in strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. For centuries, the Middle East has served as a theater of competition between the world's great powers. Today's most prominent competitors also view the Middle East as a critical region of the world where they can cultivate access and influence. This report-part of a four-volume series-explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in the Middle East; what kinds of interests they have in the region; what kinds of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic influence-seeking measures they are using; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. government at large, the joint force, and the Department of the Air Force in particular. This research was completed in September 2021, just after the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report has not been subsequently revised |
| Beschreibung: | ix, 170 Seiten Karten 25 cm |
| ISBN: | 9781977411259 1977411258 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints -- Chapter Three: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan -- Chapter Four: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq -- Chapter Five: Conclusion -- Appendix: Details on the Competition-Potential and Conflict-Potential Indices | |
| 520 | 3 | |a The United States is in the midst of a shift in strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. For centuries, the Middle East has served as a theater of competition between the world's great powers. Today's most prominent competitors also view the Middle East as a critical region of the world where they can cultivate access and influence. This report-part of a four-volume series-explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in the Middle East; what kinds of interests they have in the region; what kinds of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic influence-seeking measures they are using; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. government at large, the joint force, and the Department of the Air Force in particular. This research was completed in September 2021, just after the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report has not been subsequently revised | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents About This Report....................................................................................................................... iii Summary....................................................................................................................................... v Figures and Tables....................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER ONE Introduction................................................................................................................................ 1 Overview of the United States’, China’s, and Russia’s Interests in the Middle East................ 2 The Past, Present, and Future of Great-Power Involvement in Conflicts in the Middle East: An Overview 7 Definitions of Key Concepts..................................................................................................... 12 Methodology.............................................................................................................................. 14 Overview of Report Structure ................................................................................................ 20 CHAPTER TWO Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints.......................................................................23 Regional Competition Landscape........................................................................................... 23 Regional Potential for Internal Conflict.................................................................................. 38 Identifying
Competition Flashpoints......................................................................................40 CHAPTER THREE Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan...................43 Overview of Local Political Dynamics.................................................................................... 44 Comparative Analysis of Great-Power Interests and Objectives, Posture and Access, and Capabilities ......................................................................................................... 49 How Might a Conflict Unfold?................................................................................................. 67 Why Would the United States, China, and Russia Get Involved, and Whom Might Each Support?............................................................................................................. 67 What Factors Might Influence the Outcome of the Conflict?............................................... 73 CHAPTER FOUR Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq........................................................79 Overview of Local Political Dynamics.....................................................................................80 Comparative Analysis of Great-Power Interests and Objectives, Posture and Access, and Capabilities...........................................................................................................84 How Might a Conflict Unfold?.............................................................................................. 103 What Factors Might
Influence the Outcome of the Conflict?............................................ 112 vii
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Rocks, October 19,2020. Alkadiri, Raad, and Christine Μ. van den Toorn, “Aiming Big by Thinking Small: A New U.S. Policy for Iraq,” War on the Rocks, February 3,2021. Alterman, Jon B., “GCC Rift over Qatar Comes to an End,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 5,2021. Altynbayev, Kanat, “Kremlin Conjures Up Threats to Rationalise Military Presence in Central Asia,” Caravanserai, February 21, 2019. American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation, “China Global Investment Tracker,” webpage, undated. As of June 3,2021: https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/ “American Media: Why Is China Impotent and Silent on the Iraq Situation?” Эй: ФН/^М ^Ш^ШЖ ?Й^Ё^Л”], Global Times [^^ВФШ], June 30,2014. Al Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq Decides Against Oil-Supply Deal with China’s Zhenhua,” Bloomberg, February 21,2021. Archus, Dorian, “Russian Navy’s Stereguschy-Class Corvette Visits Oman,” Naval Post, March 15,2021. 149
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References Blank, Jonah, Richard S. Girven, Arzan Tarapore, Julia A. Thompson, and Arthur Chan, Vector Check: Prospects for U.S. and Pakistan Air Power Engagement, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-2107-AF, 2018. As of April 6,2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2107.html Bloch, Hannah, “A Look at Afghanistan’s 40 Years of Crisis—from the Soviet War to Taliban Recapture,” NPR, August 31,2021. Borshchevskaya, Anna, “Why Russia’s Great Power Game in Iraq Matters,” National Interest, August 31,2020. Bradley, Matt, Carol E. Lee, and Jay Solomon, “Deal with Iraq to Fight Islamic State Extends Russia’s Reach in Middle East,” Wall Street Journal, September 27,2015. Bradley, Matt, Gordon Lubold, and Nathan Hodge, “Deepening Russian Involvement in Iraq Complicates U.S. Airstrikes on Islamic State,” Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2015. Brennan, David, “U.S. Syria Representative Says His Job Is to Make the War a ‘Quagmire’ for Russia,” Newsweek, May 13,2020. Bugayova, Nataliya, and George Barros, “The Kremlin’s Expanding Media Conglomerate,” Institute for the Study of War, January 15,2020. Bureau of Counterterrorism, “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” webpage, U.S. Department of State, undated. As of July 8,2021: https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/ ------- , Country Reports on Terrorism 2019, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, June 24, 2020. Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “U.S. Relations with United Arab Emirates: Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet,” U.S. Department of State, December 9,2020a. -------, “U.S. Relations with Iraq:
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Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East “CCP Delegation Visits Iraq” Г Н*ннЕйдйя Xinhua [®fi^i], April 17, 2019. Charap, Samuel, Elina Treyger, and Edward Geist, Understanding Russia’s Intervention in Syria, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-3180-AF, 2019. As of July 1,2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3180.html Chaudhary, Shamila N., and Vali Nasr, “Biden Needs a New Pakistan Policy. This Is What It Should Look Like,” Atlantic Council, February 10, 2021. China Central Television, “List of Overseas Bureaus,” webpage, undated. As of September 1, 2021: http://cctvenchiridion.cctv.com/special/C19918/24/index China Culture, “Xinhua News Agency,” webpage, undated. As of September 1,2021: http://en.chinaculture.org/library/2008-02/06/content_126954.htm China Global Television Network, homepage, undated-a. As of August 25,2021: https://www.cgtn.com China Global Television Network [Ùéolb J^j^ç?» 0.486 ^ΰΆΙ^ΰ Ui =i£û IJ-a046], “Who We Are” [“fù û£ù”] webpage, undated-b. As of April 14,2022: https://arabic.cgtn.com “China-India Border Dispute: The Row Explained in 400 Words,” BBC, September 10,2020. China Power Team, “How Is China’s Energy Footprint Changing?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 15, 2016. ------- , “Does China Dominate Global Investment?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 1,2020. China Radio International Pashto, homepage, undated. As of August 25,2021: http://pushtu.cri.cn China Radio International Urdu, homepage, undated. As of August 25,2021: http://urdu.cri.cn/ Chindea, Irina
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Contents About This Report. iii Summary. v Figures and Tables. ix CHAPTER ONE Introduction. 1 Overview of the United States’, China’s, and Russia’s Interests in the Middle East. 2 The Past, Present, and Future of Great-Power Involvement in Conflicts in the Middle East: An Overview 7 Definitions of Key Concepts. 12 Methodology. 14 Overview of Report Structure . 20 CHAPTER TWO Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints.23 Regional Competition Landscape. 23 Regional Potential for Internal Conflict. 38 Identifying
Competition Flashpoints.40 CHAPTER THREE Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan.43 Overview of Local Political Dynamics. 44 Comparative Analysis of Great-Power Interests and Objectives, Posture and Access, and Capabilities . 49 How Might a Conflict Unfold?. 67 Why Would the United States, China, and Russia Get Involved, and Whom Might Each Support?. 67 What Factors Might Influence the Outcome of the Conflict?. 73 CHAPTER FOUR Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq.79 Overview of Local Political Dynamics.80 Comparative Analysis of Great-Power Interests and Objectives, Posture and Access, and Capabilities.84 How Might a Conflict Unfold?. 103 What Factors Might
Influence the Outcome of the Conflict?. 112 vii
References Unless otherwise indicated, the authors of this report provided the translations of bibliographic details for the non-English sources included in this report. To support conventions for alphabet izing, sources in Chinese are introduced with and organized according to their English transla tions. The original rendering in Chinese appears in brackets after the English translation. “Abdullah Abdullah, Hamid Karzai Meet Taliban ‘Acting Kabul Governor,’ Discuss Situation in Afghan Capital,” Times of India, August 21,2021. Abi-Habib, Maria, “China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Plan in Pakistan Takes a Military Turn,” New York Times, December 19,2018. “An Affair to Remember,” The Economist, July 29,2006. “Afghan Presidential Contenders Sign Unity Deal,” BBC, September 21, 2014. “Afghanistan: Ghani and Abdullah Sign Power-Sharing Deal,” Al Jazeera, May 17, 2020. Afzal, Madiha, “Terrorism in Pakistan Has Declined, but the Underlying Roots of Extremism Remain,” Brookings Institution, January 15,2021a. ------ , “Under Biden, Pakistan and the U.S. Face a Dilemma About the Breadth of Their Relationship,” Brookings Institution, April 12, 2021b. AidData, “China’s Global Development Footprint,” webpage, undated. As of August 27,2021: https://www.aiddata.org/china-official-finance Alaaldin, Ranj, Sectarianism, Governance, and Iraq’s Future, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, Doha Center Analysis Paper No. 24, November 2018. Alhassan, Naufel, “Once Again, Iraq Is at a Crossroads,” Middle East Institute, May 3, 2021. Aliyev, Nurlan, “How Russia Views Afghanistan Today,” War on the
Rocks, October 19,2020. Alkadiri, Raad, and Christine Μ. van den Toorn, “Aiming Big by Thinking Small: A New U.S. Policy for Iraq,” War on the Rocks, February 3,2021. Alterman, Jon B., “GCC Rift over Qatar Comes to an End,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 5,2021. Altynbayev, Kanat, “Kremlin Conjures Up Threats to Rationalise Military Presence in Central Asia,” Caravanserai, February 21, 2019. American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation, “China Global Investment Tracker,” webpage, undated. As of June 3,2021: https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/ “American Media: Why Is China Impotent and Silent on the Iraq Situation?” "Эй: ФН/^М ^Ш^ШЖ ?Й^Ё^Л”], Global Times [^^ВФШ], June 30,2014. Al Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq Decides Against Oil-Supply Deal with China’s Zhenhua,” Bloomberg, February 21,2021. Archus, Dorian, “Russian Navy’s Stereguschy-Class Corvette Visits Oman,” Naval Post, March 15,2021. 149
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East Arduino, Alessandro, “China’s Private Security Companies: The Evolution of a New Security Actor,” in Nadège Rolland, ed„ Securing the Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Evolving Military Engagement Along the Silk Roads, Seattle, Wash.: National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report No. 80, September 2019, pp. 91-103. Atwood, Richard, and Naz Modirzadeh, “Afghanistan: The Islamic State, Still No Taliban Government and a Looming Humanitarian Catastrophe,” Hold Your Fire podcast, Season 2, Ep. 1, September 3, 2021. Ayesh, Rashaan, “Where U.S. Troops and Assets Are Deployed in the Middle East,” Axios, January 8,2020. Bai Lianlei, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Expands Its Membership: New Opportunities and Challenges” [‘ïh.W'ê’{ШИ^УГ^·. China Institute of International Studies [ФИЩ^Й|!Й5Я%|?ш], November 24,2017. Baldor, Lolita C., and Robert Burns, “Vehicle Collision with Russians Injures 4 US Troops in Syria,” Military Times, August 26,2020. Barden, Justine, “The Strait of Hormuz Is the World’s Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, June 20,2019. Bar-Noi, Uri, “The Soviet Union and the Six-Day War: Revelations from the Polish Archives,” Cold War International History Project, Wilson Center, 2011. Baron, Adam, “Yemen’s Forgotten War: How Europe Can Lay the Foundations for Peace,” European Council on Foreign Relations, December 2016. Baynazarov, Einar, “Девять кругов Багдада: протесты в Ираке не повредили компаниям из РФ” [“The Nine Circles of Baghdad: The Protests in
Iraq Did Not Harm the Companies from Russia”], Izvestiia, October 8, 2019. Belenkaya, Marianna, “Russian Diplomats Sweep Through Lebanon, Iraq, Syria,” Al-Monitor, June 21,2019. Bell, Coral, “The October Middle East War: A Case Study in Crisis Management During Détente,” International Affairs, Vol. 50, No. 4, October 1974, pp. 531-543. Bezhan, Frud, and Daud Khattak, “The Rise of the New Pakistani Taliban,” Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, May 18,2021. Bhattacharji, Preeti, “Chechen Terrorism (Russia, Chechnya, Separatist),” Council on Foreign Relations, Backgrounder, April 8,2010. Biden, Joe, “Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan,” White House, August 31,2021. Blanchard, Christopher Μ., Iraq: Background and U.S. Policy, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, R45025, November 21,2017. ------- , “Iraq and U.S. Policy,” Congressional Research Service, IF10404, last updated June 4, 2021. Blanchard, Christopher Μ., and Amy Belasco, Train and Equip Program for Syria: Authorities, Funding, and Issues for Congress, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, R43727, June 9, 2015. Blanford, Nicholas, “The US Military Assistance Program to the Lebanese Armed Forces Must Endure,” Atlantic Council, April 30,2020. 150
References Blank, Jonah, Richard S. Girven, Arzan Tarapore, Julia A. Thompson, and Arthur Chan, Vector Check: Prospects for U.S. and Pakistan Air Power Engagement, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-2107-AF, 2018. As of April 6,2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2107.html Bloch, Hannah, “A Look at Afghanistan’s 40 Years of Crisis—from the Soviet War to Taliban Recapture,” NPR, August 31,2021. Borshchevskaya, Anna, “Why Russia’s Great Power Game in Iraq Matters,” National Interest, August 31,2020. Bradley, Matt, Carol E. Lee, and Jay Solomon, “Deal with Iraq to Fight Islamic State Extends Russia’s Reach in Middle East,” Wall Street Journal, September 27,2015. Bradley, Matt, Gordon Lubold, and Nathan Hodge, “Deepening Russian Involvement in Iraq Complicates U.S. Airstrikes on Islamic State,” Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2015. Brennan, David, “U.S. Syria Representative Says His Job Is to Make the War a ‘Quagmire’ for Russia,” Newsweek, May 13,2020. Bugayova, Nataliya, and George Barros, “The Kremlin’s Expanding Media Conglomerate,” Institute for the Study of War, January 15,2020. Bureau of Counterterrorism, “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” webpage, U.S. Department of State, undated. As of July 8,2021: https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/ ------- , Country Reports on Terrorism 2019, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, June 24, 2020. Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “U.S. Relations with United Arab Emirates: Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet,” U.S. Department of State, December 9,2020a. -------, “U.S. Relations with Iraq:
Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet,” U.S. Department of State, last updated December 14, 2020b. ------- , “U.S. Relations with Saudi Arabia: Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet,” U.S. Department of State, December 15,2020c. Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, “Major Non-NATO Ally Status: Fact Sheet,” U.S. Department of State, January 20,2021a. ------- , “U.S. Security Cooperation with Iraq: Fact Sheet,” U.S. Department of State, July 16, 2021b. Burns, Robert, “Billions Spent on Afghan Army Ultimately Benefited Taliban,” Associated Press, August 17,2021. Burns, Robert, and Lolita C. Baldor, “Milley: US Coordination with Taliban on Strikes ‘Possible,’” Associated Press, September 1,2021. Burr, William, ed., “The October War and U.S. Policy,” National Security Archive, October 7, 2003. Byman, Daniel L., and Israa Saber, “Is China Prepared for Global Terrorism?” Brookings Institution, September 2019. Calabrese, John, “China-Iraq Relations: Poised for a ‘Quantum Leap’?” Middle East Institute, October 8, 2019. Carter, Jimmy, “State of the Union Address 1980,” Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum, January 23,1980. 151
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East “CCP Delegation Visits Iraq” Г"Н*ннЕйдйя" Xinhua [®fi^i], April 17, 2019. Charap, Samuel, Elina Treyger, and Edward Geist, Understanding Russia’s Intervention in Syria, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-3180-AF, 2019. As of July 1,2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3180.html Chaudhary, Shamila N., and Vali Nasr, “Biden Needs a New Pakistan Policy. This Is What It Should Look Like,” Atlantic Council, February 10, 2021. China Central Television, “List of Overseas Bureaus,” webpage, undated. As of September 1, 2021: http://cctvenchiridion.cctv.com/special/C19918/24/index China Culture, “Xinhua News Agency,” webpage, undated. As of September 1,2021: http://en.chinaculture.org/library/2008-02/06/content_126954.htm China Global Television Network, homepage, undated-a. As of August 25,2021: https://www.cgtn.com China Global Television Network [Ùéolb ' J^j^ç?» 0.486 ^ΰΆΙ^ΰ Ui =i£û IJ-a046], “Who We Are” [“fù û£ù”] webpage, undated-b. As of April 14,2022: https://arabic.cgtn.com “China-India Border Dispute: The Row Explained in 400 Words,” BBC, September 10,2020. China Power Team, “How Is China’s Energy Footprint Changing?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 15, 2016. ------- , “Does China Dominate Global Investment?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 1,2020. China Radio International Pashto, homepage, undated. As of August 25,2021: http://pushtu.cri.cn China Radio International Urdu, homepage, undated. As of August 25,2021: http://urdu.cri.cn/ Chindea, Irina
A., Elina Treyger, Raphael S. Cohen, Christian Curriden, Kurt Klein, Carlos Sanchez, Holly Gramkow, and Khrystyna Holynska, Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-A969-4, forthcoming. Clark, Kate, and Obaid Ali, “A Quarter of Afghanistan’s Districts Fall to the Taleban amid Calls for a ‘Second Resistance,”’ Afghanistan Analysts Network, July 5,2021. Cohen, Raphael S., “What the UAE Weapons Deal Says About the United States and Its Alliances,” Lawfare, February 28,2021. Cohen, Raphael S., Marta Kepe, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Asha Clark, Kit Conn, Michelle Grisé, Roby Valiaveedu, and Nathan Vest, Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Global Commons, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-A597-4,2023. As of March 24, 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA597-4.html Cohen, Raphael S., Elina Treyger, Irina A. Chindea, Christian Curriden, Kristen Gunness, Khrystyna Holynska, Marta Kepe, Kurt Klein, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Nathan Vest, Great Power Competition and Conflict in the 21st Century Outside the Indo-Pacific and Europe, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-A969-1, 2023. As of April 15,2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA969-l.html Colakoglu, Selçuk, “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Turkey’s Middle Corridor: A Question of Compatibility,” Middle East Institute, January 29,2019. 152
References “Collective Rapid Reaction Force, the CSTO RRF, Turns 10 Years Old,” Collective Security Treaty Organization, February 4,2019. Columbia International Affairs Online, “Russia and Iraq Deepen Energy, Military Ties,” abstract, 2020. As of July 5, 2022: https://www.ciaonet.org/record/67482 Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve, “History of CJTF-OIR,” September 3, 2020. As of September 8,2021: https://www.inherentresolve.mil/Portals/14/Documents /20200903_History_of_CJTF-OIR.pdf?ver=mIQbnGWQSx_UTq-2Ho3Y2w%3d%3d Connable, Ben, James Dobbins, Howard J. Shatz, Raphael S. Cohen, and Becca Wasser, Weighing U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq: Strategic Risks and Recommendations, Santa Monica, Calif: RAND Corporation, PE-362-OSD, 2020. As of July 15,2021: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE362.html Cook, Sarah, China’s Global Media Footprint: Democratic Responses to Expanding Authoritarian Influence, Washington, D.C.: National Endowment for Democracy, February 2021. Cooper, Helene, Eric Schmitt, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “U.S. Weighs Possibility of Airstrikes If Afghan Forces Face Crisis,” New York Times, June 9,2021. Council on Foreign Relations, “Global Conflict Tracker: Political Instability in Iraq,” webpage, last updated June 10,2021. As of June 10, 2021: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/political-instability-iraq Crile, George, Charlie Wilson’s War: The Extraordinary Story of How the Wildest Man in Congress and a Rogue CIA Agent Changed the History of Our Times, New York: Grove Press, 2007. “CSTO Countries Agree to Reinforce
Tajik-Afghan Border—Russian Security Council,” TASS, September 15,2021. Daly, John C. K., “Russia Reemerging as Weapons Supplier to Iraq,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 15, No. 43, March 21, 2018. ------- , “Russia and Iraq Deepen Energy, Military Ties,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 17, No. 175, December 9,2020. Dangerous Companions Project, homepage, undated. As of June 12, 2022: https://www.armedgroups.net DePetris, Daniel, “It’s Time for the U.S. to Leave Iraq,” National Review, May 12,2021. Dettmer, Jamie, “Russia Expands Military Facilities in Syria,” Voice of America, May 12,2021. Deutsch, Karl W., “External Involvement in Internal Wars,” in Harry Eckstein, ed„ Internal War: Problems and Approaches, New York: Free Press of Glencoe, 1964, pp. 100-110. Dick, Shannon, “The Arms Trade and Syria,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, September 2,2019. Diresta, Renée, Carly Miller, Vanessa Molter, John Pomfret, and Glenn Tiffert, Telling China’s Story: The Chinese Communist Party’s Campaign to Shape Global Narratives, Stanford, Calif.: Stanford Internet Observatory, Hoover Institution, 2020. Dixon, Robyn, “Russia Stands to Benefit as Middle East Tensions Spike After Soleimani Killing,” Washington Post, January 6,2020. 153
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East Dobbins, James, and Jeffrey Martini, “The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand,” RAND Blog, October 21, 2019. As of October 13,2021: https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/10/the-syrian-withdrawal-where-things-stand.html DoD—See U.S. Department of Defense. Dubnov, Arkady, “What Game Is Russia Playing in Afghanistan?” Al Jazeera, November 14, 2018. Duchâtel, Mathieu, “China’s Foreign Fighters Problem,” War on the Rocks, January 25,2019. Dutton, Peter A., Isaac B. Kardon, and Conor Μ. Kennedy, Djibouti: China’s First Overseas Strategic Strongpoint, Newport, R.I.: U.S. Naval War College, China Maritime Report No. 6, April 2020. Dyner, Anna Maria, “Znaczenie Prywatnych Firm Wojskowych w Polityce Zagranicznej Rosji” [“The Importance of Private Military Companies in Russia’s Foreign Policy”], PISM, May 4, 2018. Efron, Shira, Karen Schwindt, and Emily Haskel, Chinese Investment in Israeli Technology and Infrastructure: Security Implications for Israel and the United States, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-3176-OSD, 2020. As of July 1,2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3176.html Egel, Daniel, Shira Efron, and Linda Robinson, Peace Dividend: Widening the Economic Growth and Development Benefits of the Abraham Accords, Santa Monica, Calif: RAND Corporation, PE-A1149-1,2021. As of December 9,2021: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1149-l.html Egel, Daniel, Trevor Johnston, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Eric Robinson, Building an Enduring Peace in Yemen: Lessons from Five Years of RAND Research, Santa Monica,
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References Freymann, Eyck, “Influence Without Entanglement in the Middle East,” Foreign Policy, February 25,2021. Gibbons-Neff, Thomas, “How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria,” New York Times, May 24, 2018. Goble, Paul, “Taliban Triumph in Afghanistan Echoes in Russia’s North Caucasus,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol. 18, No. 133, August 19, 2021. Goodwin, Jeff, “Why We Were Surprised (Again) by the Arab Spring,” Swiss Political Science Review, Vol. 17, No. 4,2011, pp. 452-456. Gorenburg, Dmitry, “Russia and Collective Security: Why CSTO Is No Match for Warsaw Pact,” Russia Matters, May 27,2020. Government of the Russian Federation, “Mezhdunorodniye Dogovori Roisiiskoi Federacii” [“International Agreements of the Russian Federation”], database, undated. As of February 1, 2021: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/SignatoryAuthority/international Grossman, Derek, “China and Pakistan See Eye to Eye on the Taliban—Almost,” Foreign Policy, September 20, 2021. Gul, Ayaz, “Taliban, Consolidating Power, Meet with Former Rivals,” Voice of America, August 19,2021. Haddad, Fanar, “Understanding Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’bi,” Century Foundation, March 5,2018. Han Xiaoming #наня Qing Mu [W^M- Wang Panpan [ZESJW], Hou Tao [4746], and Liu Yupeng [®Pïfe], “In Iraq, over 10,000 Chinese Citizens Participate in Rapid Rebuilding” ["Z{ ФВЛЛ^±7з ЕРвЭБЭхв" Global Times [^^ВгГШ]. December 23,2015. Haqqani, Husain, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005. Harchaoui, Jalel, “The Pendulum: How Russia
Sways Its Way to More Influence in Libya,” War on the Rocks, January 7,2021. Harold, Scott W., Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, and Jeffrey W. Hornung, Chinese Disinformation Efforts on Social Media, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-4373/3-AF, 2021. As of August 25,2021: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4373z3.html Harooni, Mirwais, and Josh Smith, “Russia Gives a Gift of 10,000 Automatic Rifles to Afghanistan,” Reuters, February 24,2016. Hatef, Azeta, and Luwei Rose Luqiu, “Where Does Afghanistan Fit in China’s Grand Project? A Content Analysis of Afghan and Chinese News Coverage of the One Belt, One Road Initiative,” International Communication Gazette, Vol. 80, No. 6,2018, pp. 551-569. Headquarters, Department of the Army, Counterinsurgency, Field Manual З-24/Fleet Marine Force Manual 3-24, Washington, D.C., June 16,2006. Hedenskog, Jakob, “Russia Is Stepping Up Its Military Cooperation in Africa,” Swedish Defence Research Agency, December 2018. ------- , Russia and International Cooperation on Counter-Terrorism: From the Chechen Wars to the Syria Campaign, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI-R—4916—SE, March 2020. 155
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East Hedenskog, Jakob, Erika Holmquist, and Johan Norberg, Security in Central Asia: Russian Policy and Military Posture, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI-R—4756—SE, May 2019. Högbladh, Stina, Therése Pettersson, and Lotta Themnér, “External Support in Armed Conflict 1975-2009, Presenting New Data,” paper presented at the 52nd Annual International Studies Association Convention, Montreal, Canada, March 16-19,2011. House Committee on Appropriations, “Appropriations Committee Releases Fiscal Year 2023 Defense Funding Bill,” press release, June 14,2022. Humud, Carla E., and Christopher Μ. Blanchard, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, RL33487, July 27,2020. Iddon, Paul, “Warm Waters at Last: Russia’s Expanding Military Footprint in the Middle East,” New Arab, June 9,2020. International Crisis Group, Iraq’s Paramilitary Groups: The Challenge of Rebuilding a Functioning State, Brussels, Middle East Report No. 188, July 30,2018. International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, London, Vols. 114-120, 2014-2020. ------- , The Military Balance, London, Vol. 121,2021. International Monetary Fund, “Coordinated Direct Investment Survey,” webpage, undated. As of August 31, 2021: https://data.imf.org/?sk=40313609-F037-48Cl-84Bl-E!FlCE54D6D5 Irish, John, “Iraq Would Welcome Russian Airstrikes Against ISIS, PM Says,” Haaretz, October 1,2015. Isachenkov, Vladimir, “Russia Against US Troops in Central Asia Near Afghanistan,” Associated
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webpage, undated. As of December 13, 2021: https://www.usagm.gov/networks/mbn U.S. Agency for International Development, “U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants: Obligations and Loan Authorizations, July 1,1945-September 30, 2019,” webpage, February 24, 2021. As of April 9, 2022: https://foreignassistance.gov/reports U.S. Air Force, “MQ-9 Reaper Enhances Air Force Capabilities in Iraq,” July 22,2008. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “U.S. Direct Investment Position Abroad on a HistoricalCost Basis,” 2019. ------- , “U.S. Trade in Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas, 1999-Present,” Excel spreadsheet, last updated September 3,2020. U.S. Department of Defense, “Releases,” webpage, undated. As of May 21, 2022: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases ------- , Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States ofAmerica: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge, Washington, D.C., 2018a. ------- , Assessment on U.S. Defense Implications of China’s Expanding Global Access, Washington, D.C., December 2018b. U.S. Department of Justice, “Iraq,” June 19,2015. As of December 9, 2021: https://www.justice.gov/eoir/page/file/1027311/download 167
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East U.S. Department of State, “2019 Treaties and Agreements,” webpage, undated-a. As of November 2,2020: https://www.state.gov/2019-TIAS/ ------- , “Websites of U.S. Embassies, Consulates, and Diplomatic Missions,” webpage, undated-b. As of April 14,2022: https://www.usembassy.gov ------- , Congressional Budget Justification: Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, Fiscal Year 2021, Washington, D.C., February 10,2020. ------- , Congressional Budget Justification: Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, Fiscal Year 2022, Washington, D.C., May 28,2021. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “What Countries Are the Top Producers and Consumers of Oil?” webpage, 2020. As of August 31,2021: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709 t=6 ------- , “Oil and Petroleum Products Explained: Oil Imports and Exports,” webpage, April 21, 2021a. As of September 9,2021: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php ------- , “Petroleum and Other Liquids: U.S. Imports from Iraq of Crude Oil,” webpage, August 31, 2021b. As of September 9,2021: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET s=MCRIMIZ2 f=A “US in Afghanistan to Influence Russia, Iran, China—Russian Foreign Ministry,” Sputnik, March 14, 2018. U.S. Marine Corps, “SPMAGTF-CR-CC,” webpage, undated. As of December 11,2021: https://www.imef.marines.mil/Units/I-MIG/SPMAGTF-CR-CC “US Says Taliban ‘Businesslike and Professional’ in Afghan Evacuation,” France 24, September 9, 2021.
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Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East World Bank, “Russia and the World Bank: International Development Assistance,” webpage, undated. As of July 11,2022: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/brief/international-development World Integrated Trade Solution, web tool, undated. As of August 27,2021: https://wits.worldbank.org/ Wu, Bingbing, “China and New Middle East,” Journal ofBalkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 23, No. 3,2021, pp. 443-457. Xie E [WW], “China’s Assistant Representative to the U.N. Calls on Iraq to Independently Advance Its Independent Political Process” [“ФИ^З£1|^^ДйУ^^^^£^?:ЙЗт£ёЗ£№й: Енисная" Xinhua [Wf^tt], November 25, 2020. “Xinhua Launches Multimedia Wire-Services in Five More Foreign Languages,” Xinhua, August 18, 2020. Xu, Muyu, and Chen Aizhu, “Saudi Arabia Pips Russia to Be China’s Biggest Oil Supplier in 2020,” Reuters, January 20,2021. Zambelis, Chris, “China and the Quiet Kingdom: An Assessment of China-Oman Relations,” China Brief, Vol. 15, No. 22, November 16, 2015. Zeed, Adnan Abu, “PMU Factions Set Conditions for Next Iraqi Prime Minister,” Al-Monitor, January 30,2020. Zeigler, Sean Μ., Alexander C. Hou, Jeffrey Martini, Daniel Μ. Norton, Brian Phillips, Michael Schwille, Aaron Strong, and Nathan Vest, Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-4304-DOS, 2019. As of August 4,2021: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4304.html Zhang, Rachel, “China May Send Peacekeepers to Afghanistan When US
Troops Leave: Experts,” South China Morning Post, April 16,2021. Zhu Lu, “A Bridge Too Far: China’s Overseas Security and Private Military and Security Companies,” China: An International Journal, Vol. 18, No. 3, August 2020, pp. 169-181. Î ? Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München 170 |
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| author | Rhoades, Ashley L. Treyger, Elina Vest, Nathan |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1207551236 (DE-588)1190908492 (DE-588)1193504023 |
| author_facet | Rhoades, Ashley L. Treyger, Elina Vest, Nathan |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Rhoades, Ashley L. |
| author_variant | a l r al alr e t et n v nv |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049092785 |
| contents | Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints -- Chapter Three: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan -- Chapter Four: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq -- Chapter Five: Conclusion -- Appendix: Details on the Competition-Potential and Conflict-Potential Indices |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1424565788 (DE-599)BVBBV049092785 |
| format | Book |
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Rhoades, Elina Treyger, Nathan Vest, Christian Curriden, Brad A. Bemish, Irina A. Chindea, Raphael S. Cohen, Jessica Giffin, Kurt Klein</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Santa Monica, Calif.</subfield><subfield code="b">Rand Corporation</subfield><subfield code="c">[2023]</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ix, 170 Seiten</subfield><subfield code="b">Karten</subfield><subfield code="c">25 cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">[Research report]</subfield><subfield code="v">RR-A969-3</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints -- Chapter Three: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan -- Chapter Four: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq -- Chapter Five: Conclusion -- Appendix: Details on the Competition-Potential and Conflict-Potential Indices</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">The United States is in the midst of a shift in strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. 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| geographic_facet | China Russland USA Naher Osten |
| id | DE-604.BV049092785 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:30:18Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:55:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781977411259 1977411258 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034354471 |
| oclc_num | 1424565788 |
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| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | ix, 170 Seiten Karten 25 cm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20240228 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Rand Corporation |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | [Research report] |
| spelling | Rhoades, Ashley L. Verfasser (DE-588)1207551236 aut Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East Ashley L. Rhoades, Elina Treyger, Nathan Vest, Christian Curriden, Brad A. Bemish, Irina A. Chindea, Raphael S. Cohen, Jessica Giffin, Kurt Klein Santa Monica, Calif. Rand Corporation [2023] ix, 170 Seiten Karten 25 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier [Research report] RR-A969-3 Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints -- Chapter Three: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan -- Chapter Four: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq -- Chapter Five: Conclusion -- Appendix: Details on the Competition-Potential and Conflict-Potential Indices The United States is in the midst of a shift in strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. For centuries, the Middle East has served as a theater of competition between the world's great powers. Today's most prominent competitors also view the Middle East as a critical region of the world where they can cultivate access and influence. This report-part of a four-volume series-explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in the Middle East; what kinds of interests they have in the region; what kinds of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic influence-seeking measures they are using; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. government at large, the joint force, and the Department of the Air Force in particular. This research was completed in September 2021, just after the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report has not been subsequently revised Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 gnd rswk-swf China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf Naher Osten (DE-588)4068878-1 gnd rswk-swf Great powers Strategic rivalries (World politics) World politics / 21st century Low-intensity conflicts (Military science) Middle East / Foreign relations / 21st century United States / Foreign relations / China / 21st century China / Foreign relations / United States / 21st century United States / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) / 21st century Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / United States / 21st century USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g China (DE-588)4009937-4 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 s Naher Osten (DE-588)4068878-1 g DE-604 Treyger, Elina Verfasser (DE-588)1190908492 aut Vest, Nathan Verfasser (DE-588)1193504023 aut Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034354471&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034354471&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Rhoades, Ashley L. Treyger, Elina Vest, Nathan Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Identifying Regional Competition Flashpoints -- Chapter Three: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan -- Chapter Four: Conflict Scenarios with Great-Power Involvement: Iraq -- Chapter Five: Conclusion -- Appendix: Details on the Competition-Potential and Conflict-Potential Indices Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4158292-5 (DE-588)4009937-4 (DE-588)4076899-5 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4068878-1 |
| title | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East |
| title_auth | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East |
| title_exact_search | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East |
| title_full | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East Ashley L. Rhoades, Elina Treyger, Nathan Vest, Christian Curriden, Brad A. Bemish, Irina A. Chindea, Raphael S. Cohen, Jessica Giffin, Kurt Klein |
| title_fullStr | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East Ashley L. Rhoades, Elina Treyger, Nathan Vest, Christian Curriden, Brad A. Bemish, Irina A. Chindea, Raphael S. Cohen, Jessica Giffin, Kurt Klein |
| title_full_unstemmed | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East Ashley L. Rhoades, Elina Treyger, Nathan Vest, Christian Curriden, Brad A. Bemish, Irina A. Chindea, Raphael S. Cohen, Jessica Giffin, Kurt Klein |
| title_short | Great-power competition and conflict in the Middle East |
| title_sort | great power competition and conflict in the middle east |
| topic | Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Großmachtpolitik China Russland USA Naher Osten |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034354471&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034354471&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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