Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia: exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach
"Whenever and however Russia's invasion of Ukraine ultimately ends, the U.S.-Russia relationship is likely to remain hostile in its aftermath. Over the long term, however, the United States will have incentives to reduce the risks and costs of its relationship with Russia in order to focus...
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| Schriftenreihe: | Research reports
RR-A1862-1 |
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| Zusammenfassung: | "Whenever and however Russia's invasion of Ukraine ultimately ends, the U.S.-Russia relationship is likely to remain hostile in its aftermath. Over the long term, however, the United States will have incentives to reduce the risks and costs of its relationship with Russia in order to focus on other challenges, such as China. Future U.S. policymakers might therefore wish to again consider a limited less-hardline approach toward Russia. Supporters of such approaches contend that limited less-hardline approaches can reduce an adversary's insecurity, moderate its behavior, and reduce the costs and risks associated with competition between the two countries. Critics are reluctant to make concessions to U.S. rivals and worry that softening the U.S. stance could embolden a rival to become more demanding and aggressive. The authors used four historical case studies of limited less-hardline approaches with strategic similarities to the U.S.-Russia relationship before the war in Ukraine to evaluate these competing claims. These cases were (1) negotiations between Britain and Russia over Central Asia from 1899 to 1914 (2) U.S.-Soviet negotiations on the post-World War II order from 1945 to 1946, (3) the U.S.-Soviet détente from 1969 to 1975, and (4) the U.S.-Russia reset from 2009-2013. The authors found that such approaches have led to durable but narrow gains without emboldening the rival to be more demanding or aggressive. These limited policies also have limited effects. They only reduce a rival's threat perceptions modestly and do not prevent future deterioration of the relationship over outstanding conflicts of interest." |
| Beschreibung: | "RAND National Security Research Division" |
| Beschreibung: | xi, 210 Seiten Illustrationen 25,5 cm |
| ISBN: | 9781977410016 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a "Whenever and however Russia's invasion of Ukraine ultimately ends, the U.S.-Russia relationship is likely to remain hostile in its aftermath. Over the long term, however, the United States will have incentives to reduce the risks and costs of its relationship with Russia in order to focus on other challenges, such as China. Future U.S. policymakers might therefore wish to again consider a limited less-hardline approach toward Russia. Supporters of such approaches contend that limited less-hardline approaches can reduce an adversary's insecurity, moderate its behavior, and reduce the costs and risks associated with competition between the two countries. Critics are reluctant to make concessions to U.S. rivals and worry that softening the U.S. stance could embolden a rival to become more demanding and aggressive. The authors used four historical case studies of limited less-hardline approaches with strategic similarities to the U.S.-Russia relationship before the war in Ukraine to evaluate these competing claims. These cases were (1) negotiations between Britain and Russia over Central Asia from 1899 to 1914 (2) U.S.-Soviet negotiations on the post-World War II order from 1945 to 1946, (3) the U.S.-Soviet détente from 1969 to 1975, and (4) the U.S.-Russia reset from 2009-2013. The authors found that such approaches have led to durable but narrow gains without emboldening the rival to be more demanding or aggressive. These limited policies also have limited effects. They only reduce a rival's threat perceptions modestly and do not prevent future deterioration of the relationship over outstanding conflicts of interest." | |
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| adam_text | Contents About This Report....................................................................................................................... iii Summary........................................................................................................................................ v Figures and Tables........................................................................................................................xi CHAPTER ONE Introduction................................................................................................................................. 1 What Is a Less-Hardline Approach?.......................................................................................... 3 Claims About the Potential Benefits of Less-Hardline Approaches........................................5 Claims About the Costs and Risks of Less-Hardline Approaches........................................... 9 U.S. Willingness to Adopt a Less-Hardline Approach Toward Russia.................................. 11 Methodology.............................................................................................................................. 13 Report Organization................................................................................................................. 24 CHAPTER TWO Anglo-Russian Negotiations over Central Asia (1899-1914).................................................. 25 Context...................................................................................................................................... 26 Motives of Each
Side.................................................................................................................. 33 Historical Period 1: 1899-1904................................................................................................. 37 Historical Period 2: 1905-1907................................................................................................. 43 Historical Period 3: End of Accommodation: 1907-1914........................................................ 52 End of Accommodation.............................................................................................................68 Longer-Term Implications.........................................................................................................68 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................. 71 CHAPTER THREE U.S.-Soviet Negotiations on the Post-World War II Order (1945-1946).............................. 75 Context....................................................................................................................................... 76 Motives of Each Side...................................................................................................................83 Historical Period 1: The Potsdam Conference and Immediate Aftermath, July-August 1945........................................................................................................ 87 Historical Period 2: Deadlock in London, September-October 1945..................................... 93
Historical Period 3: Cautious Optimism in Moscow, December 1945.................................. 98 End of Accommodation.......................................................................................................... 105 Longer-Term Implications...................................................................................................... 109 Conclusion............................................................................................................................... 109 ix
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach CHAPTER FOUR U.S.-Soviet Détente (1969-1975)............................................................................................ Ill Context.................................................................................................................................. 112 Motives of Each Side.............................................................................................................. 120 Historical Period 1: From Nixon’s 1969 Inauguration to the 1971 Invitation to Moscow.... 123 Historical Period 2: From the 1972 Moscow Summit to the 1975 Helsinki Act 133 End of Accommodation 142 Longer-Term Implications 144 Conclusion 145 CHAPTER FIVE U.S.-Russia Reset (2009-2013) Context Motives of Each Side Historical Period: January 2009-August 2013 End of Accommodation Longer-Term Implications Conclusion 147 148 157 161 174 177 179 CHAPTER SIX Conclusion................................................................................................................................ Findings.................................................................................................................................. Recommendations................................................................................................................. Final Thoughts.......................................................................................................................
Abbreviations............................................................................................................................ References.................................................................................................................................. 181 181 188 191 193 195
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Contents About This Report. iii Summary. v Figures and Tables.xi CHAPTER ONE Introduction. 1 What Is a Less-Hardline Approach?. 3 Claims About the Potential Benefits of Less-Hardline Approaches.5 Claims About the Costs and Risks of Less-Hardline Approaches. 9 U.S. Willingness to Adopt a Less-Hardline Approach Toward Russia. 11 Methodology. 13 Report Organization. 24 CHAPTER TWO Anglo-Russian Negotiations over Central Asia (1899-1914). 25 Context. 26 Motives of Each
Side. 33 Historical Period 1: 1899-1904. 37 Historical Period 2: 1905-1907. 43 Historical Period 3: End of Accommodation: 1907-1914. 52 End of Accommodation.68 Longer-Term Implications.68 Conclusion. 71 CHAPTER THREE U.S.-Soviet Negotiations on the Post-World War II Order (1945-1946). 75 Context. 76 Motives of Each Side.83 Historical Period 1: The Potsdam Conference and Immediate Aftermath, July-August 1945. 87 Historical Period 2: Deadlock in London, September-October 1945. 93
Historical Period 3: Cautious Optimism in Moscow, December 1945. 98 End of Accommodation. 105 Longer-Term Implications. 109 Conclusion. 109 ix
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach CHAPTER FOUR U.S.-Soviet Détente (1969-1975). Ill Context. 112 Motives of Each Side. 120 Historical Period 1: From Nixon’s 1969 Inauguration to the 1971 Invitation to Moscow. 123 Historical Period 2: From the 1972 Moscow Summit to the 1975 Helsinki Act 133 End of Accommodation 142 Longer-Term Implications 144 Conclusion 145 CHAPTER FIVE U.S.-Russia Reset (2009-2013) Context Motives of Each Side Historical Period: January 2009-August 2013 End of Accommodation Longer-Term Implications Conclusion 147 148 157 161 174 177 179 CHAPTER SIX Conclusion. Findings. Recommendations. Final Thoughts.
Abbreviations. References. 181 181 188 191 193 195
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References “Ukraine Crisis: Transcript of Leaked Nuland-Pyatt Call,” BBC News, February 7,2014. As of December 28,2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 United Nations Security Council, “Resolution 1973, Adopted by the Security Council at Its 6498th Meeting on 17 March 2011,” S/RES/1973,2011. As of December 28,2021: https://www.undocs.org/S/RES/1973%20(2011) U.S. Department of State, FY 2007 U.S. Government Assistance to and Cooperative Activities with Eurasia, Washington, D.C.: Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, 2009. As of December 28, 2021: https://2009-2017.state.gOv/p/eur/rls/rpt/eurasiafy07/116185.htm U.S. House of Representatives, Mystery at Manas: Strategic Blind Spots in the Department of Defense’s Fuel Contracts in Kyrgyzstan, Washington, D.C.: Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 2010. As of December 28, 2021: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/ subcommittee_report_12222010.pdf Velasco, Jesus, Neoconservatives in U.S. Foreign Policy Under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2010. Vendil Pallin, Carolina, and Fredrik Westerlund, “Russia’s War in Georgia: Lessons and Consequences,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 20, No. 2,2009. Vershbow, Alexander, and Daniel Fried, “How the West Should Deal with Russia,” Atlantic Council, November 23, 2020. Volker, Kurt, “No More Resets with Russia,” Foreign Policy, August 11, 2020. Walt, Stephen, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1987. Waltz,
Kenneth, Theory of International Politics, Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Publishing, 1979. Weisiger, Alex, and Keren Yarhi-Milo, “Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics,” International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2,2015, pp. 473-495. Westad, Odd Arne, The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. Westad, Odd Arne, The Cold War: A World History, New York: Basic Books, 2017. White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Washington, D.C., December 2017. White House, “Fact Sheet: Imposing Costs for Harmful Activities by the Russian Government,” April 15,2021. White, John Albert, Transition to Global Rivalry: Alliance Diplomacy and the Quadruple Entente, 1895-1907, Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1995. Wilson, Keith Μ., The Policy of Entente: Essays on the Determinants of British Foreign Policy, 1904-1914, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1985. Wimbush, S. Enders, and Elizabeth Μ. Portale, eds. Russia in Decline, Washington, D.C.: Jamestown Foundation, 2017. Wishnick, Elizabeth, Mending Fences: The Evolution of Moscow’s China Policy from Brezhnev to Yeltsin, Seattle, Wash.: University of Washington Press, 2001. 209
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach “Yalta Conference Agreement, Declaration of a Liberated Europe,” Yalta, Crimea, February 11, 1945 (via the Wilson Center). As of December 27,2021: http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/116176 Zagorski, Andrei, “The Russian Proposal for a Treaty on European Security: From the Medvedev Initiative to the Corfu Process,” OSCE Yearbook 2009, Baden-Baden, Germany: Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, 2010, pp. 43-59. “Zayavlenie dlya pressy i otvety na voprosy zhurnalistov po itogam zasedaniya Soveta RossiyaNATO,” transcript, April 4, 2008. As of December 28,2021: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24903 Zelizer, Julian E., “Détente and Domestic Politics,” Diplomatic History, Vol. 33, No. 4, September 2009, pp. 653-670. Zubok, Vladislav, “The Soviet Union and Détente of the 1970s,” Cold War History, Vol. 8, No. 4, 2008, pp. 427-447. Zubok, Vladislav, A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold Warfrom Stalin to Gorbachev, Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press, 2009. Zubok, Vladislav, and Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996. Zygar, Mikhail, “The Russian Reset That Never Was,” Foreign Policy, December 9,2016. Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München \_ _ _ / 210 |
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| author | Priebe, Miranda Frederick, Bryan Evans, Alexandra T. Charap, Samuel 1980- Tarini, Gabrielle Rooney, Bryan |
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| author_facet | Priebe, Miranda Frederick, Bryan Evans, Alexandra T. Charap, Samuel 1980- Tarini, Gabrielle Rooney, Bryan |
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| bvnumber | BV049091184 |
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| spelling | Priebe, Miranda Verfasser (DE-588)1152015044 aut Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra T. Evans, Samuel Charap, Gabrielle Tarini, Bryan Rooney Future United States peacetime policy toward Russia Santa Monica, Calif. RAND [2023] © 2023 xi, 210 Seiten Illustrationen 25,5 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Research reports RR-A1862-1 "RAND National Security Research Division" "Whenever and however Russia's invasion of Ukraine ultimately ends, the U.S.-Russia relationship is likely to remain hostile in its aftermath. Over the long term, however, the United States will have incentives to reduce the risks and costs of its relationship with Russia in order to focus on other challenges, such as China. Future U.S. policymakers might therefore wish to again consider a limited less-hardline approach toward Russia. Supporters of such approaches contend that limited less-hardline approaches can reduce an adversary's insecurity, moderate its behavior, and reduce the costs and risks associated with competition between the two countries. Critics are reluctant to make concessions to U.S. rivals and worry that softening the U.S. stance could embolden a rival to become more demanding and aggressive. The authors used four historical case studies of limited less-hardline approaches with strategic similarities to the U.S.-Russia relationship before the war in Ukraine to evaluate these competing claims. These cases were (1) negotiations between Britain and Russia over Central Asia from 1899 to 1914 (2) U.S.-Soviet negotiations on the post-World War II order from 1945 to 1946, (3) the U.S.-Soviet détente from 1969 to 1975, and (4) the U.S.-Russia reset from 2009-2013. The authors found that such approaches have led to durable but narrow gains without emboldening the rival to be more demanding or aggressive. These limited policies also have limited effects. They only reduce a rival's threat perceptions modestly and do not prevent future deterioration of the relationship over outstanding conflicts of interest." Geschichte 1899-2013 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 gnd rswk-swf Außenbeziehungen (DE-588)4143618-0 gnd rswk-swf Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf United States / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Außenbeziehungen (DE-588)4143618-0 s Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 s Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 s Geschichte 1899-2013 z DE-604 Frederick, Bryan Verfasser (DE-588)1148323317 aut Evans, Alexandra T. Verfasser (DE-588)1229697292 aut Charap, Samuel 1980- Verfasser (DE-588)1140057758 aut Tarini, Gabrielle Verfasser (DE-588)1219163376 aut Rooney, Bryan Verfasser (DE-588)1166872610 aut Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034352905&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034352905&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Priebe, Miranda Frederick, Bryan Evans, Alexandra T. Charap, Samuel 1980- Tarini, Gabrielle Rooney, Bryan Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 gnd Außenbeziehungen (DE-588)4143618-0 gnd Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4065004-2 (DE-588)4143618-0 (DE-588)4156741-9 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach |
| title_alt | Future United States peacetime policy toward Russia |
| title_auth | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach |
| title_exact_search | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach |
| title_full | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra T. Evans, Samuel Charap, Gabrielle Tarini, Bryan Rooney |
| title_fullStr | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra T. Evans, Samuel Charap, Gabrielle Tarini, Bryan Rooney |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra T. Evans, Samuel Charap, Gabrielle Tarini, Bryan Rooney |
| title_short | Future U.S. peacetime policy toward Russia |
| title_sort | future u s peacetime policy toward russia exploring the benefits and costs of a less hardline approach |
| title_sub | exploring the benefits and costs of a less-hardline approach |
| topic | Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 gnd Außenbeziehungen (DE-588)4143618-0 gnd Geopolitik (DE-588)4156741-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Außenpolitik Militärpolitik Außenbeziehungen Geopolitik USA Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034352905&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034352905&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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