Is a Global Recession Imminent?:
Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios f...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2022
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Policy Notes
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2022-24. We report three major findings. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. The policy actions in many countries are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could have larger impacts than envisioned-both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the global growth slowdown. Third, if the degree of global monetary policy tightening markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the additional tightening needed could cause significant financial stress and increase the likelihood of a global recession next year. These findings imply that policymakers need to carefully calibrate, clearly communicate, and credibly implement their policy actions while considering potential international spillovers, especially given the globally synchronous withdrawal of monetary and fiscal policies. They also need to pursue supply-side measures to overcome constraints confronting labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource |
| DOI: | 10.1596/38019 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nmm a22000001c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV049079861 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 230731s2022 xxu|||| o||u| ||||||eng d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1596/38019 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (ZDB-1-WBA)082392315 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1392150666 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KEP082392315 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c XD-US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-521 |a DE-573 |a DE-523 |a DE-Re13 |a DE-19 |a DE-355 |a DE-703 |a DE-91 |a DE-706 |a DE-29 |a DE-M347 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-20 |a DE-739 |a DE-1043 |a DE-863 |a DE-862 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Guenette, Justin Damien |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Is a Global Recession Imminent? |c Justin Damien Guenette |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C |b The World Bank |c 2022 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a Policy Notes | |
| 520 | 3 | |a Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2022-24. We report three major findings. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. The policy actions in many countries are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could have larger impacts than envisioned-both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the global growth slowdown. Third, if the degree of global monetary policy tightening markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the additional tightening needed could cause significant financial stress and increase the likelihood of a global recession next year. These findings imply that policymakers need to carefully calibrate, clearly communicate, and credibly implement their policy actions while considering potential international spillovers, especially given the globally synchronous withdrawal of monetary and fiscal policies. They also need to pursue supply-side measures to overcome constraints confronting labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic Growth | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic Insecurity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kose, M.Ayhan |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sugawara, Naotaka |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1596/38019 |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-1-WBA | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034341752 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1812671834716372993 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | |
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Guenette, Justin Damien |
| author_facet | Guenette, Justin Damien |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Guenette, Justin Damien |
| author_variant | j d g jd jdg |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049079861 |
| collection | ZDB-1-WBA |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-1-WBA)082392315 (OCoLC)1392150666 (DE-599)KEP082392315 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1596/38019 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nmm a22000001c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV049079861</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">230731s2022 xxu|||| o||u| ||||||eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1596/38019</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-1-WBA)082392315</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1392150666</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)KEP082392315</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">XD-US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-523</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-Re13</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-706</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M347</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1043</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-862</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Guenette, Justin Damien</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Is a Global Recession Imminent?</subfield><subfield code="c">Justin Damien Guenette</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Washington, D.C</subfield><subfield code="b">The World Bank</subfield><subfield code="c">2022</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Policy Notes</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2022-24. We report three major findings. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. The policy actions in many countries are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could have larger impacts than envisioned-both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the global growth slowdown. Third, if the degree of global monetary policy tightening markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the additional tightening needed could cause significant financial stress and increase the likelihood of a global recession next year. These findings imply that policymakers need to carefully calibrate, clearly communicate, and credibly implement their policy actions while considering potential international spillovers, especially given the globally synchronous withdrawal of monetary and fiscal policies. They also need to pursue supply-side measures to overcome constraints confronting labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economic Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economic Growth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economic Insecurity</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Macroeconomics and Economic Growth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Kose, M.Ayhan</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Sugawara, Naotaka</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1596/38019</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-1-WBA</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034341752</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV049079861 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:27:56Z |
| indexdate | 2024-10-12T04:02:52Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034341752 |
| oclc_num | 1392150666 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-12 DE-521 DE-573 DE-523 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-706 DE-29 DE-M347 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-20 DE-739 DE-1043 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-521 DE-573 DE-523 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-706 DE-29 DE-M347 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-20 DE-739 DE-1043 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource |
| psigel | ZDB-1-WBA |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateSearch | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | The World Bank |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Policy Notes |
| spellingShingle | Guenette, Justin Damien Is a Global Recession Imminent? Economic Forecasting Economic Growth Economic Insecurity Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| title | Is a Global Recession Imminent? |
| title_auth | Is a Global Recession Imminent? |
| title_exact_search | Is a Global Recession Imminent? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Is a Global Recession Imminent? |
| title_full | Is a Global Recession Imminent? Justin Damien Guenette |
| title_fullStr | Is a Global Recession Imminent? Justin Damien Guenette |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is a Global Recession Imminent? Justin Damien Guenette |
| title_short | Is a Global Recession Imminent? |
| title_sort | is a global recession imminent |
| topic | Economic Forecasting Economic Growth Economic Insecurity Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| topic_facet | Economic Forecasting Economic Growth Economic Insecurity Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1596/38019 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT guenettejustindamien isaglobalrecessionimminent AT kosemayhan isaglobalrecessionimminent AT sugawaranaotaka isaglobalrecessionimminent |