Demand for Imports in Venezuela: A Structural Time Series Approach
Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela....
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2002
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 EUV01 HTW01 FHI01 IOS01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper-a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten)) |
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| 520 | 3 | |a Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper-a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org | |
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| spelling | Cuevas, A. Mario Verfasser aut Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario Washington, D.C The World Bank 2002 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten)) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper-a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org Online-Ausg Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Demand Domestic Economic Activity Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Economy Endogenous Variables Environment Exchange Rate Increases Exchange Rate Level Exogenous Variable External Balance Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Rate Imbalances Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Cuevas, A. Mario Sonstige oth Cuevas, A. Mario Demand for Imports in Venezuela http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cuevas, A. Mario Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Demand Domestic Economic Activity Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Economy Endogenous Variables Environment Exchange Rate Increases Exchange Rate Level Exogenous Variable External Balance Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Rate Imbalances Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| title | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_auth | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_exact_search | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_full | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_fullStr | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_short | Demand for Imports in Venezuela |
| title_sort | demand for imports in venezuela a structural time series approach |
| title_sub | A Structural Time Series Approach |
| topic | Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Demand Domestic Economic Activity Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Economy Endogenous Variables Environment Exchange Rate Increases Exchange Rate Level Exogenous Variable External Balance Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Rate Imbalances Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| topic_facet | Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Demand Domestic Economic Activity Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Economy Endogenous Variables Environment Exchange Rate Increases Exchange Rate Level Exogenous Variable External Balance Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Rate Imbalances Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| url | http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cuevasamario demandforimportsinvenezuelaastructuraltimeseriesapproach |