Cold peace: avoiding the new Cold War
"By 1990, the first Cold War was ending. The Berlin Wall had fallen and the Warsaw Pact was crumbling; following Russia's lead, cries for democracy were being embraced by a young Chinese populace. The post-Cold War years were a time of immense hope and possibility. They heralded an opportu...
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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New York
Liveright Publishing Corporation, a Division of W.W. Norton & Company
[2023]
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| Ausgabe: | First edition |
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register |
| Zusammenfassung: | "By 1990, the first Cold War was ending. The Berlin Wall had fallen and the Warsaw Pact was crumbling; following Russia's lead, cries for democracy were being embraced by a young Chinese populace. The post-Cold War years were a time of immense hope and possibility. They heralded an opportunity for creative cooperation among nations, an end to ideological strife, perhaps even the beginning of a stable international order of liberal peace. But the days of optimism are over. As renowned international relations expert Michael Doyle makes hauntingly clear, we now face the devastating specter of a new Cold War, this time orbiting the trilateral axes of Russia, the United States, and China, and exacerbated by new weapons of cyber warfare and more insidious forms of propaganda. Such a conflict at this phase in our global history would have catastrophic repercussions, Doyle argues, stymieing global collaboration efforts that are key to reversing climate change, preventing the next pandemic, and securing nuclear nonproliferation. The recent, devastating invasion of Ukraine is both an example and an augur of the costs that lay in wait. However, there is hope. Putin is not Stalin, Xi is not Mao, and no autocrat is a modern Hitler. There is also an unprecedented level of shared global interest in prosperity and protecting the planet from environmental disaster. While it is unlikely that the United States, Russia, and China will ever establish a "warm peace," there are significant, reasonable compromises between nations that can lead to a détente. While the future remains very much in doubt, the elegant set of accords and non-subversion pacts Doyle proposes in this book may very well save the world."--Provided by publisher |
| Beschreibung: | 323 Seiten 23 cm |
| ISBN: | 9781631496066 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Contents introduction From Cold War to Cold Peace 1 Part One 9 A NEW COLD WAR? chapter one Defining Cold War 11 chapter two Cold War П? 26 Part Two THE SOURCES OF CONFLICT chapter three Superpower Systems, Hegemonic Transitions, and Multidimensional Polarity 69 бз
Chapter four Corporatist, Nationalise Autocracies 81 chapter five Liberal, Capitalist Democracies 118 Part Three DISTANT MIRRORS ITALY, JAPAN, AND THE UNITED STATES FROM THE 1920S TO THE 1930S chapter six chapter seven 153 Italian Fascism and American Politics 157 Japanese Militarism and American Policy 182 Part Four COLD PEACE 205 chapter eight Future Scenarios 210 chapter nine Four Bridges to a Cold Peace 220 Afterword and Acknowledgments 247 Notes 2S1 Index 305
Index Affordable Care Act (АСА) (United States), 244 Afghan War (1979-89), 40,218, 261n55 Afghanistan imposition of democracy and, 251»6, 283и71 Russian assassinations in, 34 Soviet invasion of, 40,218,261n55 US attack on (2001), 139 US withdrawal from, 41 African countries, 14,16, 36-37, 60, 80 Agenda for Peace (1992), 56 Airbus, 94 Alibaba, 90, 91,108 Allende, Salvador, 129 alliances balance-of-power systems and, 18,75 democratic coalition proposals and, 237 liberal separate peace and, 125 strategies for cold peace and, 227-28, 237 Trump administration and, 146 See also specific alliances Allison, Graham, 4, 78 Anatomy ofFascism, The (Paxton), 163 Angola, 37 Ant Group, 90, 91 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, 218,219 anti-Semitism, 155,177-78,180,283nl, 288ии75, 77 appeasement, 75,175-76,179-80,288»81 Arbenz, Jacobo, 129 Arendt, Hannah, 97 Aristide, Jean-Bertrand, 130 Armenia, 217 arms control Cold War and, 218 European Union accusations against Russia and, 41 League of Nations and, 186 liberal failures in, 127 limited-target strategies, 235 New START, 227,232 strategies for cold peace and, 141 Trump administration and, 146 US interwar period foreign policy and, 176 arms races balance-of-power systems and, 18 Cold War and, 64,73,218 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 109 Aslund, Anders, 274n65 Assad, Bashar al-, 111, 146,217,238,262n69 See also Syrian civil war AUKUS (Australia, UK, US Alliance), 80 Australia,42, 111, 151,294и11
306 authoritarian defensiveness, 99,151-52, 275ո87,294»11 as basic source of conflict, “a world safe for autocracy,” 3-4 Belt and Road Initiative and, 112 Hong Kong and, 108-9 indirect imposition, Sudan, 110-11 liberal human rights and, 99,118,125 Trump administration policies toward China and, 215 authoritarianism China, 106-8,151,186,190,275я82 evolution of, 100-101 future scenarios and, 212 Great Depression and, 290»39 Italian Fascism and, 167-69, 286n37 Russia, 103-6, 139,154,169 Soviet Union, 158 surveillance and, 102-3 Trump and, 49,82,83,144-45 variety of, 101-2 war and, 126 See ako corporatist, nationalist autocra cies; Italian Fascism autocracy. See authoritarianism; corporatist, nationalist autocracies Azerbaijan, 217 Baidu, 108 balance-of-power systems, 18-20, 21,22, 75, 236,253»13,254n23,255»35 Balbo, Italo, 157,161,171 Bannon, Stephen, 141-42 Baruch Plan, 218 Bay of Pigs incident (1961), 24, 138 Beaverbrook, Lord (Max Aitken), 178 Belarus, 115,1Ï6,181 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (China), 46, 50,109-10,111-12,151,154, 194,203 Bennet, Michael, 259n39 Berger, Sandy, 247 Berger, Victor, 173 Berlin, Isaiah, 97 Berman, Sheri, 123 Biden, Hunter, 30 Biden, Joseph R., and administration, 2 Alaska Summit, 36,46 arms control and, 227 Belt and Road Initiative and, 112 climate change and, 221 cyber warfare and, 92-93, 234-35, 300n47 Index democratic coalition proposals, 5,36,42, 44,46 disavowal of new cold war, 46,217 economic equality policies and, 243-44, 302»70 on future scenarios, 210-12 human rights and, 36,45,46,57 on ideological divide, 6,13,20,68, 79 on
international cooperation challenges, 208-9 new cold war invocations by, 2,13,38,40 on Russian political intervention, 21,31 on stakes of new cold war, 207 student debt cancellation, 244 Trumpian populism and, 145 Ukraine invasion and, 80 bipolar systems Cold War as, 21,22,24,45,47, 64, 77 globalization and, 78 ideological divides and, 76-77,267n27 imperialism/colonialism and, 77-78 stability in, 75-76 US-Chinese bipolarity in new cold war, 71-74,267nl4 Black Lives Matter, 36 Blackmatter, 235 Blackwill, Robert D., 230-31 Blinken, Antony, 13, 92-93 Boeing, 94 Bolsonaro, Jair, 116 Bolton, John, 18, 37,254n25 Borrell, Josep, 53 Brands, Hal, 79 Brazil, 116 Bretton Woods institutions, 47, 100,109, 112,124,131 Brexit, 30, 95,144 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations, 35, 71,135 Brown, Sherrod, 259n39 Budapest Convention (2001), 53 Build Back Better World (B3W), 112 bureaucratic authoritarianism, 102 Burns, Nicholas, 60-61 Burr, Richard, 30 Bush, George H. W., and administration, 137 Bush, George W., and administration cyber warfare by, 28,43 Iraq War, 50,80,82,118,125, 141 Cai Xia, 216 Camp David Accords, 16
Index Canada, 36,296n8 Capitol putsch (January 6,2021), 4, 36,147, 148,210,217,246 Carter, Jimmy, 130,229 Cassin, René, 54 Castle, William, 292nn62-63 Castlereagh, Viscount (Robert Stewart), 19 CENTO (Central Treaty Organization), 55 Central African Republic, 37 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 43 chain-ganging, 75 Chamberlain, Neville, 178,179-80 Charap, Samuel, 253nl7 Charles VI (Holy Roman Emperor), 254n34 Chase, Kerry, 197 Chen Quanguo, 107 Cheney, Dick, 137 Chiang Kai-shek, 155,229 Child, Richard Washburn, 159 Chile, 129 China accusations of US political intervention in, 29,44 age imbalance in, 72 authoritarianism in, 106-8,151, 186, 190,275»82 climate change and, 221,222 comparative threat of, 42,228,298n26 corporatism in, 88-93,270nn20-21 Document Nine (2013), 99 domestic security issues, 108,277nl08 end of Cold War and, 2 on future scenarios, 214-16 growing global influence of, 68 hegemonic transition and, 78-79,117 ideals for international order, 47,49, 56-57,99,109,208,215,294nl3 interwar Open Door controversies, 183, 184,185, 187,188,200,202, 291n58 Japanese imperialism/colonialism in, 184, 187,188 military capacity of, 48, 73,78-79 nationalism in, 98-100,108,113-14 perspectives on new cold war, 29,44-45, 46, 79,217 policy toward Taiwan, 36,44,48-49,230, 298n28 post-Cold War era international order and, 124 social credit program, 108,275и82 strategies for cold peace and, 228-33 surveillance state in, 34 307 “third revolution,” 107,275n79 Tiananmen Square protests, 1,44,108, 113,186 Tibet and, 49, 99 trade with European Union, 150-51 Ukraine invasion and, 36,
60,208,236-37 UN Security Council role, 214-15,229 US distrust of, 33-35,38,141-42,215 US interwar relations with Japan compared, 6,155-56,183,186,190, 198-99,202-3,202 US state cyber espionage against, 27 WTO and, 124,142,190,214-15,282и55 See also Chinese foreign policy; Chinese oppression of Uighurs; corporatist, nationalist autocracies; new cold war; Xi Jinping and regime Chinese economic growth Cold War/new cold war compared and, 3, 45,48,64 future scenarios and, 212-13 globalization and, 136 interwar Japan and, 154 limits on, 72-73 “Made in China 2025” plan, 39,143 technology industry, 33-34,39,50,108, 111, 143,244,258n30 TransPacific Partnership and, 146 US-Chinese bipolarity and, 71,72 US interwar relations with Japan com pared, 202-3 Chinese foreign policy, 108-14 alignment with Russia, 35-36,46, 64, 117,208, 236-37 Belt and Road Initiative, 46,50,109-10, 111-12,151,154,194,203 see also Mantetsu (South Manchuria Rail way Company) cyber industrial espionage, 27,32-33, 39, 92-93,113,234, 258»30 hegemonic transition and, 117 human rights and, 110-11 information-influence operations and, 35,42, 259n39 Iran and, 35,46, 89,270n20 Japanese militarism in 1930s, compared, 202-03 loss/recovery of empire and, 83, 98, 99-100,102 nationalism and, 108,113-14 North Korea sanctions and, 54 ransomware attacks by, 32
308 Chinese foreign policy (continued) Solomon Islands and, 37-38 state cyber espionage, 27,31-33, 92-93, 258и30 state cyber sabotage, 32 “wolf warrior” diplomacy, 48,113-14, 151,214,215,294»11 See aho authoritarian defensiveness; Mantetsu (South Manchuria Railway Company) Chinese oppression of Uighurs, 34,99,107 See also international human rights con demnation of China CHIPS and Science Act (2022) (United States), 244 Christensen, Thomas, 75,142 Churchill, Winston, 23,25 civic nationalism, 95 civil rights movement, 243 civil society, 57,83 Clausewitz, Carl von, 76 clientelist corporatism, 87-88 climate change global interdependence and, 50,221 international disorder and, 52 strategies for cold peace and, 220-22, 295nl Clinton, Bill, and administration, 130,141, 247,281»n45,47 Clinton, Hillary, 95,145,149 CNAs. See corporatist, nationalist autoc racies cold peace defined, 16-17 examples of, 15,253nl7 See also cold peace, strategies for cold peace, strategies for, 6-8, 16,220-45 arms control and, 141 balance-of-power strategies, 236-37 China and, 228-33 climate change and, 220-22,295nl containment, 232 cyber warfare and, 206, 233-36, 299n41 democratic coalition, 237-38 nonsubversion pact, 4, 7 Taiwan and, 229-33,298и28, 30 triangulation, 232-33 Ukraine and, 7,222-28,297nl8 US reform, 7,238-45 Cold War African countries and, 36-37 armistices, 224 Index arms control and, 218 arms race and, 64,73,218 balance-of-power strategies and, 236 bipolar nature of, 21,22,24,45,47, 64, 77 characteristics of, 24-25,46-47 cooperation during, 218-19 costs of, 7, 206,2S2n7 détente, 4,16
globalization and, 131-32 hegemonic cooperation during, 67 human rights and, 54 ideological divide and, 20,21,23-24,25, 47, 77 International Investment Bank and, 33 Kennedy’s "Ich Bin Ein Berliner” speech, 48 NATO and, 55 new cold war compared, 3,45-51, 64 peacekeeping and, 54-55,219 political interventions and, 21 proxy wars during, 7,24,26,40,253nl4, 260-6Խ55,264»! Soviet-Chinese rivalry during, 22,236 stability during, 264nl Taiwan and, 229 trade and, 93 US accommodation to authoritarian states and, 149 US distrust of Soviet Union and, 127-28 US military interventions during, 129-31 See also Cold War, end of Cold War, end of elements of, 55 “end of history” theory and, 69-70,82,121 irony in, 1-2 See also post-Cold War era Cold War, The (Lippman), 14 cold wars defined, 14,20-21 examples of, IS, 253«15 great power competition and, 20 ideological divides and, 21 legitimacy as basis of, 22 variety of, 22 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, 27, 31, 150,235 colonialism. See imperialism/colonialism color revolutions, 125 Colton, Timothy J., 253nl7 Committee on the Present Danger, 141-42 Concert of Europe diplomacy (1815-30), 16, 18-20, 21, 85
Index Congo, 55 Congress ofVienna (1815), 255ո35 See also Concert of Europe diplomacy containments, 14,253nl3 Cornwell, David (John le Carré), 1-2 corporatism, 84-94 China, 88-93, 270wn20-21 Italian Fascism and, 166-67,285n32 Japan, 182 in liberal, capitalist democracies, 93-94, 271-72n36 marketization as source of, 85-86, 269n6 Russia, 86-88 types of, 84-85 corporatist, nationalist autocracies (CNAs) corruption and, 116 diversity among, 103 foreign policies, 105,108-17 nationalism, 94-100 Russian-Chinese similarities and differ ences, 83 similarities to Italian Fascism and Japa nese Militarism, 83,268-69и2 transparency and, 93 Trump’s affinity for, 49, 82, 83 US accommodation to, 149-50 See also authoritarian defensiveness; authoritarianism; China; corporatism; interwar Japan; Italian Fascism; Russia Cotton, Tom, 38,143 COVID-19 pandemic corporatism and, 93 future scenarios and, 215 international disorder and, 51 liberal democratic distrust of China and, 38,150 new cold war conflict spirals and, 150, 151 state espionage and, 54 US-Chinese relations and, 38 US-Chinese/Russian rivalry and, 59, 60, 111 Crimea annexation, 7,83, 98,222-23, 225-26 crony capitalism, 94,167 Cruz, Ted, 259n39 Cuba, 24,138 cyber warfare banning proposals, 206 Chinese technology and, 39,143 dangers of, 206 deterrence and, 113 309 forms of, 27-30,255n2 future scenarios and, 211 global interdependence and, 256n4 global treaties on, 53 hack-and-dump operations, 43 identity theft, 31 industrial espionage, 27,32-33, 39, 92-93,113,234,258n30 international disorder and, 51 legal constraints on, 113 new
cold war characteristics and, 26, 27-33, 65 new cold war conflict spirals and, 150 political intervention, 21,28-31,43, 51, 216,235-36, 30Խ56 ransomware attacks, 27-28, 31,32,150, 216, 235 state espionage, 27, 28, 31-33,98,150, 227,258n30 state sabotage, 28, 32,43, 98,150,227, 235 strategies for cold peace and, 206,23336,299n41 terrorism and, 51 threats to democracy from, 7 Trump administration presidential find ing, 43 ubiquitous use of, 233 US-Chinese agreement (2015), 234 US-Russian agreement (2021), 234-35 US use of, 27, 28,43,233 Czech Republic, 48 Dahl, Robert, 122 D’Annunzio, Gabriele, 162,163, 166 Darfur, 110-11 DarkSide, 27,31,235 Dastyari, Sam, 42 Davis, Norman H., 175 Dawisha, Karen, 103, 104 de Grazia, Victoria, 169 “Declaration of War on Germany” speech (Roosevelt), 160 democracy China’s sovereigntist approach, 56-57 cyber warfare as threat to, 7 defensive goals, a “world safe for democ racy” , 3-4,151 global trends in, 122-23,123,144-45,239 globalization as trade-off with, 134 Gorbachev on, 55 imposition of, 3,25Խ6,283n71
310 democracy (continued) social media and, 239, 30Խ56 US domestic threats to, 123-24,238-39, 240-41 US reform proposals, 239-40, 243 warm peace and, 16 See also liberal, capitalist democracies democratic coalition proposals, 5,36,42, 44, 46,237-38 democratic peace thesis, 67 Deng Xiaoping, 88,107 Derkach, Andrii, 30 détente, 4,16 See also cold peace, strategies for deterrence cyber warfare and, 113 nuclear weapons and, 24,139,141,156, 180,203,206 Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, 229,266nl2 Dickenson, Frederick, 289nl4 “Doctrine of Fascism” (Mussolini), 161-62, 165,167 dollar-diplomacy imperialism, 129 domestic inequalities. See economic inequal ities Donbas, 45,223-24,226 Dreher, Rod, 147 Drucker, Peter, 280n31 Dulles, John Foster, 128 Duterte, Rodrigo, 143-44 dynastic rivalries, 14,22 Eagleburger, Lawrence S., 114 East Timor, 223 Ecco, Umberto, 165 economic crisis (2008-2009), 144 economic inequalities Chinese authoritarianism and, 82 Chinese foreign policy and, 111 corporatism and, 93-94 global, 135-36 globalization and, 134-36,243 international disorder and, 51,263«84 populism and, 7,144, 148 reform proposals and, 7,240,241-42, 243-45, 302и70 Economy, Elizabeth C., 88-89,275n79 El Salvador, 130 “Elephant Chart” (World Bank), 135 Ellickson, Robert, 67-68 Elliott, William Yandell, 174,284» 11 embedded liberalism, 132 Index empire, loss and recovery of beached diasporas and, 223 Chinese foreign policy and, 83,98, 99-100,102 Italian Fascism and, 165,170,179 Russian foreign policy and, 83,96,102, 140 Ukraine invasion and, 96,115 See also imperialism/colonialism “end of history”
theory, 69-70,82,121 Enlightenment, 273»52 environmental resilience new cold war threats to, 7 espionage industrial, 27,32-33,39, 92-93, 113,234, 258n30 state, 27, 28,31-33, 98,150,227,258o30 Ethiopia, 159,165,166,170-71,172-73, 178 ethno-nationalism, 95,99,272»39 "Eurasianism,” 98 European Medicines Agency cyberattack (2021), 27 European Union (EU) Chinese cyber warfare against, 41 on Chinese human rights violations, 36, 57,150-51 Chinese information-influence opera tions against, 42 Chinese trade with, 150-51 civilian orientation of, 46, 64 Eastern European dependence on, 2 “Eurasianism” as alternative to, 98 International Investment Bank and, 33 international order and, 267»13 on new cold war, 40-42, 26Խ57 Russian authoritarianism and, 140 Russian political intervention in, 29, 30, 301и56 strategies for cold peace and, 227 Ukrainian membership, 140,282n52 US alignment with, 46 warm peace and, 16 Facebook, 28,144, 239 facial-recognition technology, 103,107 Facta, Luigi, 168 Fascism. See Italian Fascism Feldman, Noah, 12-13 financial crises, 51,144 Finchelstein, Federico, 95-96 Finland, 40,80,140,217
Index First Sino-Japanese War (1894), 194 For the People Act (HR 1) (United States), 239-40 France, 30,80 Franck, Louis, 167 Franco, Francisco, 149 Franco-Prussian War (1870), 20 Frederick the Great (king of Prussia), 22 Freedman, Lawrence, 12,106 Frye, Tim, 87 Fukuyama, Francis, 69-70 future scenarios Chinese perspectives, 214-16 Russian perspectives, 216-17 US perspectives, 210-14,293я4 See also cold peace, strategies for G7,10, 111, 112 Gaddis, John, 264«1 garrison state, 201,29Խ59 Gazprom, 35-36 General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs (GATT), 131 Gentile, Giovanni, 165 Gentiloni, Paolo, 41 George III (king of England), 22 Georgia, 5,139 Gerasimov, Valery, 42 Germany imposition of democracy and, 251 «6, 283n71 nineteenth-century unification wars, 19-20 reunification, 137 Russian natural gas exports and, 41, 80, 93 Ukraine invasion and, 80 Giolitti, Giovanni, 162,168 Giuliani, Rudolph, 30 Gladstone, William, 129 global interdependence, 3 climate change and, 50,221 corporatism and, 86 cyber warfare and, 256n4 future scenarios and, 211 global common interests and, 50 globalization and, 51,133 international cooperation challenges and, 68 international disorder and, 51-52 isolationism as untenable and, 180,213 unipolar hegemonic systems and, 70 311 Global Magnitsky Act (2016) (United States), 239 Global Trends 2040, 211-14, 293n4 globalization bipolar systems and, 78 China integration attempts, 142,282я55 Cold War era, 131-32 corporate transnational strategy and, 133, 280и31 economic inequalities and, 134-36,243 interdependence and, 51,133 marketization and, 132-33 populism
and, 144,148 trade-offs in, 134 US hegemony in, 136 Goldberg, Jeffrey, 18 Goldstone, Richard, 139 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 1, 55, 97,137,169 Graham, Thomas, 297nl8 Gramsci, Antonio, 162 Grassley, Chuck, 30 ■ Great Britain assessments of Fascist Italy, 176-77, 287n72 on Chinese human .rights violations, 36 Concert of Europe diplomacy and, 19 hegemonic transition and, 150 international order and, 267я13 Japan and, 186 Russian assassinations in, 31, 33, 34 Russian political intervention in, 30 Great Depression authoritarianism and, 290n39 Italian Fascism and, 155,157,166-67, 172 Japan and, 197,200,290я39 Great Transformation, The (Polanyi), 85 Greek financial collapse, 144 Guaidó, Juan, 43 Guatemala, 129 Gulliver’s Travels (Swift), 76-77,267n27 Guterres, António, 11-12, 60 Haberman, Joseph, 297nl8 Haiti, 130 Hara Takashi, 184 Hayek, F. A., 287t 72 Hearst, William Randolph, 178 hegemonic cooperation, 66,67,68,69-70, 74 hegemonic transition, 78-79,117,150 Herder, Johann Gottfried von, 273n52 Hirohito (emperor ofJapan), 191-92
312 History ofthe Peloponnesian War (Thucydides), 4, 78,268n29 Hitler, Adolf. See Nazi Germany Hobbes, Thomas, 18, 66,254»25 Holy Alliance, 19 Hong Kong Chinese authoritarianism and, 108-9 Chinese media companies and, 34 Chinese nationalism and, 100 corporatism and, 92 future scenarios and, 215 human rights and, 57-58 "One Country, Two Systems” agreement, 49, 100 US political intervention accusations, 29, 44,217 Western condemnation of China and, 36, 111,216 Hoover, Herbert, 127-28,292n63 Hornbeck, Stanley, 292»62 hot peace, 253nI2 hot war, 14,15,22 House, Edward, 185 Huawei, 33-34,41,80, 89,108, 111 Hughes, Charles Evans, 185 human rights authoritarian protectiveness and, 38, 110-11,116 Chinese ideals for international order and, 56 Cold War and, 54 condemnation of Russia, 41,46,118,217 democratic coalition proposals and, 237 future scenarios and, 211 Hong Kong and, 57-58 ideological divides and, 57-59 international liberal approach, 57, 118, 125,2781)14 middle powers and, 50 post-Cold War era, 55-56 “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine, 58-59 Saudi violations, 225,278nl4 strategies for cold peace and, 7,237 Summit for Democracy (2021), 36 Syrian civil war and, 111,116 See also international human rights con demnation of China; Mill, John Stuart humanitarian disasters, 52 Humphrey, John Peters, 54 Hundred Years’ War, 14, 22,253nl5 Hungary, 33,143 Index “Ich Bin Ein Berliner” speech (Kennedy), 48 identity theft, 31 ideological divides bipolar systems and, 76-77,267n27 Chinese nationalism and, 99 Cold War and, 20,21,23-24,25,47,77 cold wars and, 21 cooperation across,
22,25,255n37 hegemonic transition and, 79 human rights and, 57-59 international cooperation challenges and, 68 legitimacy and, 49, 81-82 new cold war and, 6,49,57-59,64, 68, 81-82 Ikenberry, John, 278»12 See also Bretton Woods institutions Ilyin, Ivan, 98 imperialism/colonialism bipolar systems and, 77-78 interwar Japan, 184, 187,188,192-94, 196-97,198,200,29Խ58 Italian Fascism and, 159,166,170-71, 172-73,178,179,288n80 liberal foreign policy and, 126-27,128-29 Paris Peace Conference and, 185 populism and, 102 US foreign policy and, 127,129,137 See also empire, loss and recovery of India climate change and, 221 democracy in, 101 international order and, 267nl4 Kärgil conflict, 16-17 Kashmir and, 50 new cold war conflict spirals and, 151 strategies for cold peace and, 233 Indo-Pacific Quad, 46,212,232-33 industrial espionage, 27,32-33,39, 92-93, 113,234,258и30 inequalities. See economic inequalities Inflation Reduction Act, The (2022) (United States), 244 Infrastructure and Investment Act, The (2021) (United States), 124,243-44 interdependence. See global interdependence Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, 41 international cooperation challenges, 65-68, 69-70, 74,100,208-9 International Court ofjustice, 223 international disorder
Index coopération challenges and, 65-68, 69-70 impact of new cold war on, 51-52, 263n84 international human rights condemnation of China authoritarian resentment of, 44,118,125, 216,217, 278nl4 European Union and, 36,57, 150-51 Hong Kong and, 36, 57-58, 111, 216 new cold war characteristics and, 36,49 new cold war invocations and, 46 International Investment Bank, 33 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 109, 131 international order balance-of-power systems, 18-20, 21,22, 75,236, 253nl3,254и23, 255n35 Chinese ideals for, 47,49,56-57, 99,109, 208,215,294»13 Cold War/new cold war compared, 45-47, 64 complicating tensions in, 79-80 Concert of Europe diplomacy, 16,18-20, 21, 85 cooperation and, 70 economic power and, 71-74, 71, 72 European Union and, 267«13 garrison state, 201,291n59 hegemonic transition and, 78-79, 117, 150 militaristic shocks to, 82-83 military power and, 73-74, 73-74 multipolar “chessboards,” 74 multipolar nature of new cold war, 45, 47, 64 post-Cold War era, 124 power measurement in, 71-72, 266nn3, 8,267nl4 soft power in, 73 Thucydides Trap, 4, 78,124-25, 268^29 Ukraine invasion and, 80, 83 unipolar hegemonic systems, 2, 67, 68, 69-70 See also bipolar systems interwar Japan imperialism/colonialism, 184,187, 188, 192-94,196-97,198, 200,291n58 industrialization, 195-96 Mantetsu (South Manchuria Railway Company), 192-93,203 see also Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (China) 313 military regime development, 191-92,194 nationalism, 197 roots of militarism, 195-99,290и42 Soviet relations with, 189 Taisho democratization, 184,190,191 See also US interwar relations with
Japan interwar period US isolationism, 158,174,175-76,177, 180,185,186,289»11 US-Italian relations, 155,171-76 See also interwar Japan; Italian Fascism Iran arms control and, 146 Chinese relations with, 35,46, 89,270«20 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 36 ideological divides and, 49 nuclear program, 28,43,146 Saudi relations with, 16, 225 US-British intervention in, 21,129 US-Israeli state cyber sabotage against, 28,43,233 Iraq War, 50,80, 82,118,125,141 “Iron Curtain Speech” (Churchill), 23 Ishii Kikujiro, 184 ISIS, 275n83 Islam, 16 Islamic State, 50 Israel, 28,43, 146-47, 233 Italian Fascism appeasement and, 179-80,288n81 authoritarianism and, 167-69,286и37 British assessment of, 176-77,287n72 characteristics of, 161-63 corporatism and, 166-67,285и32 imperialism/colonialism and, 159,166, 170-71,172-73, 178, 179,288»80 loss/recovery of empire and, 165,170,179 modern-day authoritarian similarities to, 83,268-69«2 nationalism and, 163-66,170 origins of, 86 promotion motivations, aggression and, 275n87 Putinism and, 6 Russia compared, 180-81,198 Russian nationalism and, 97-98 US liberal admiration of, 155,157-59,174 US liberal disenchantment with, 159-61, 174-75,179, 284nll, 287nn66, 68, 288n80 US public opinion on, 174,175 US relations with, 155,171-76
314 Italian Fascism (continued) World War I and, 161,163,164,170,173 World War II and, 22 Italy nineteenth-century unification wars, 19-20 US political intervention in, 21 See also Italian Fascism J. P. Morgan Co., 174,187 January 6,2021 Capitol putsch, 4,36, 147, 148,210,217,246 Japan post-World War II imposition of democ racy, 251n6,283ra71 Taiwan and, 231 Trump administration and, 146 See also interwar Japan JBS attack, 27,28,31,235 Jeffress, Robert, 146-47 Jerusalem, 146-47 Jiang Shigong, 99-100 John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act (HR 4) (United States), 239,240 Kahler, Miles, 198 Kajiwara Nakaji, 188 Kant, Immanuel, 67,105-6, 273n52 Kärgil conflict, 16-17 Kato Takaaiki, 184 Kato Tomosaburo, 187,188 Katznelson, Ira, 178 Kellogg-Briand Pact, 201 Kennan, George, 23,253«13 Kennedy, John F., 48,130,178 Kennedy, Joseph P., Jr., 177-78,288nn75,77 Kennedy, Joseph P., Sr., 178,180,288n77 Kerry, John, 221 Keynesianism, 131 Khan, Sulmaan Wasif, 113 Khanna, Vikram, 91 Kharas, Homi, 135 Khashoggi, Jamal, 225 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 169 Khrushchev, Nikita, 24 Kim Jong-un, 145-46 King, Angus, 259«39 Kissinger, Henry, 11,18,19, 236,255n35 Klare, Michael, 12 kleptocracy, 2,104 Knox, MacGregor, 6 Index kompromat, 29 Korean War, 40,26Խ55, 264« 1 Kosovo, 223 Kozyrev, Andrei V., 114 Kristallnacht (1938), 178 Kudlow, Larry, 142 Kushner, Jared, 94 LaFeber, Walter, 184,292nn62-63 laissez-faire (neo-conservative) liberalism, 119,120 Lakner, Christoph, 135 Lamont, Thomas W., 174,185,187 Lamont-Kajiwara Agreement, 186, 188 Lansing, Robert, 184,185 Lasswell, Harold, 201,291n59 Lavrov,
Sergei, 35, 97 le Carré, John, 1-2 League ofNations, 124,172,173,184-85, 186,200,201,292n63 Lebanon peacekeeping, 55 legitimacy authoritarianism and, 102, 106 balance-of-power systems and, 19,255n35 cold peace and, 16 cold wars and, 14,16,22 ideological divides and, 49,81-82 new cold war and, 150 self-determination and, 223, 229,230, 296n8 Taiwan and, 229,230 warm peace and, 16 Legvoid, Robert, 12,49,252n2 Leonhardt, David, 242 Li Song, 117 liberal, capitalist democracies (LCDs) admiration of Italian Fascism, 155, 157-59,174 corporatism in, 93-94,271-72«36 disenchantment with Italian Fas cism, 159-61,174-75,179,284nll, 287n«66,68,288«80 domestic politics and, 121-22 “end of history” theory and, 69-70, 82, 121 expansionist foreign policies of, 83 globalization and, 131-36 human rights and, 57,118 individual rights and, 119-20 political order in, 120-21
Index political polarization in, 148 populism and, 118 separate peace among, 125-26,136,149 transparency and, 93,113 See also democratic coalition proposals; liberal democratic distrust of nonlib eral states; liberal foreign policy; US foreign policy liberal democratic distrust of nonliberal states Cold War and, 127-28 COVID-19 pandemic and, 38,150 interwar period, 189 liberal separate peace and, 126 new cold war conflict spirals and, 150 technology competition and, 33-34 Thucydides Trap and, 124-25 Trump administration and, 12, 34-35, 141-42,215 liberal European revolutions (1920s), 19 liberal foreign policy doctrines arms control and, 127 defensive motivations of, 3-4,151 engagement and, 141,151,212 imperialism/colonialism and, 126-27, 128-29 military nonintervention, intervention and, 127,128-31,139 political order and, 120 populism and, 118 problematic nature of, 122 See also Kant, Immanuel; Mill, John Stu art; US foreign policy Libya, 50 Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963), 218 Lindbergh, Charles, 144,178,288««78, 81 Linz, Juan, 101 Lipman, Masha, 44 Lippman, Walter, 14,253«13 Liu, Eric, 243 Liu He, 110 Locarno Pact, 172 Lodge, Henry Cabot, 183 Lodge Corollary, 183,288«4 Lomborg, Bjorn, 295« 1 London Naval Conference (1930), 198 Long, Breckinridge, 157,283« 1 "Long Telegram” (Kennan), 23 Louis XV (king of France), 22 Luce, Henry, 157 Lukashenko, Alexander, 115,116,150 315 Lute, Douglas, 60-61 Ma, Jack, 90 Macron, Emmanuel, 42,80,234 Madison, James, 240 Maduro, Nicolas, 42-43 Malik, Charles, 54 Manchuria, 184,187, 188,190,192-94,196, 198,200 Manchurian Incident (1931),
190,192, 193-94,198 Mantetsu (South Manchuria Railway Com pany), 192-93,203 Mao Zedong, 107 Maria Theresa (Austrian archduchess), 22 marketization, 85-86,132,269«6 Markey, Ed, 259»39 McCain, John, 5,237 McFaul, Michael, 12,103 McMaster, H. R., 12, 34-35,252«3,254«20 Merriam, Charles, 158-60 Mexian-American War, 127 Mexico, 50 Microsoft Exchange Server compromise, 31-32 Middle East Camp David Accords, 16 migration, 51-52 Milanovic, Branko, 135 milieu goals, 3-4 Mill, John Stuart, 131 Miloševič, Slobodan, 139 Minsk II Protocol (2015), 223-24,226 Mizoguchi, Toshiyuki, 197-98 Mnuchin, Steven, 94 Modi, Narendra, 233 Moldova, 31,34 Monroe Doctrine, 183 Montenegro, 31 Moore, Barrington, Jr., 100-101 Morrison, Scott, 111 Mortimer, Edward, 134 Mosaddegh, Mohammad, 129 Mozambique, 37 Mueller, John, 52 Mueller Report (2019), 30 Müller, Jan-Werner, 238 multilateralism, 47,55-57,214-15 challenges to, 65-68 See also international order; plurilateralism; World Trade Organization
316 Munich Agreement, 178 Mussolini, Benito, 6,154,158,161-62, 163-64,167 See also Italian Fascism mutual assured destruction, 219 Myanmar, 36 NAFTA, 145 Nathan, Andrew, 106-7 nationalism China, 98-100,108, 113-14 Enlightenment and, 273n52 interwar Japan, 197 Italian Fascism and, 163-66,170 populism and, 95-96 Russia, 96-98 Trump and, 113,144,145 types of, 95, 99,272n39 See also white nationalism NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Chinese cyber warfare and, 31-32 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 35 Cold War and, 55 Eastern European dependence on, 2 expansion of, 137,138-40,208,227-28, 297и24 free-riding and, 79 new cold war and, 10, 60-61 Partnership for Peace, 138-39 post-Cold War era and, 56 Russian observer status, 124 strategies for cold peace and, 227, 297»24 summit (2021), 10 Swedish/Finnish membership, 40,80, 140, 217 threats to Russia and China, 5 Trump administration and, 61,146 Ukraine invasion and, 40,45, 60, 80,217, 225 Ukraine membership possibility, 140, 223,228 warm peace and, 16 Navalny, Aleksei A., 105,169,217 Nazi Germany appeasement and, 75,178,179-80, 288я81 Italian Fascist alliance with, 171,173, 179,180,181 Japanese alliance with, 181 lack of current parallels, 3, 6 US rejection of, 160,161 Index US tolerance of, 177-79,180,288nn75, 77-78 Nazi-Soviet Pact (1939), 255n37 Nebenzia, Vassily, 259«36 Nemtsov, Boris, 104,169 Neutrality Acts (1939) (United States), 173 new cold war alternative terms for, 12-13,14 Biden disavowal of, 46,217 characteristics of, 26,27-40 China/Russia comparative threats, 42, 228,298и26 Chinese perspectives on, 29,44-45,46,
79,217 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 35-36, 46, 64, 117, 208,236-37 Cold War compared, 3,45-51, 64 conflict spirals and, 139,150-51, 266nl2 dangers of, 293и4 decline of hegemonic cooperation, 68, 69-70 depth of, 13-14 environmental resilience and, 7 European Union perspectives, 40-42, 261«57 historical analogues for, 6 human rights and, 7,46 ideological divide and, 6,49, 57-59, 64, 68,81-82 international disorder and, 51-52, 263»84 interwar period compared, 6,155-56, 180-81, 183,186,190 invocations of, 2,11-12,13,34-35, 38, 40,141-42,252n3 legitimacy and, 150 limits on, 3 middle powers and, 49-50, 79-80 multidimensional nature of, 45,47, 64 NATO and, 10, 60-61 peacekeeping and, 59-60 plurilateralism and, 56-61 Russian perspectives, 29,42-44 stakes of, 2,68,206-7,266nl2 structured nature of, 4-5 Thucydides Trap and, 4,124-25 Trump as anomaly in, 5-6 US-Chinese bipolarity in, 71-74,267nl4 US-Chinese/Russian rivalry and, 52-54, 59-60, 111 See also liberal democratic distrust of non liberal states
Index New Deal, 155,158-59,172,284ո5 New START, 227,232 Nicaragua, 129,130 Nicolson, Harold, 19 Nielsen, Kirstjen, 30-31 Nolte, Ernst, 181, 269n2 non-stace actors, 51,52 nonsubversion pact proposal, 4, 7 Nord Stream 2,41,80, 93,108 North Atlantic Treaty Organization. See NATO North Korea Chinese-Russian alignment and, 36 cyber warfare and, 233 Huawei and, 89 nuclear program, 50,53-54, 60,145,146, 186 sanctions on, 53-54 Trump and, 145-46 Norway, 149-50 nuclear weapons Cold War arms race and, 73 deterrence and, 24,139,141,156,180, 203,206 Iranian program, 28,43,146 North Korean program, 50, 53-54, 60, 145,146,186 Trump administration and, 12 See also arms control; arms races Nye, Joseph, 73,235 Obama, Barack, and administration, 28, 43, 141,234 O’Hanlon, Michael, 73,266n 12,297w24 oligarchy authoritarianism and, 103,104 corporatism and, 87, 93-94 Russian foreign policy and, 116 US domestic politics and, 94 Olympic Games cyber operation, 28 On War (Clausewitz), 76 Open Door controversies (China), 183,184, 185, 187,188,200,202,29Խ58 Orbán, Viktor, 33,143 Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 135 “Organization of European States” pro posal (Doyle), 138, 247, 281n45, 303-4n2 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 226 Ostrom, Elinor, 67 317 Page, Benjamin, 94 Pakistan Kärgil conflict, 16-17 Palmerston, Viscount (Henry John Temple), 18, 254n23 Paris Agreement, 221 Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyber space (2018), 234 Paris Peace Conference, 158,170,184-85, 187 Paxton, Robert, 163,286n37 peace defined, 14 states of, 15, 16 Peace
Preservation Law (1925) (Japan), 191 peacekeeping Cold War and, 54-55,219 new cold war and, 59-60 post-Cold War era, 56 Pearl Harbor attack, 203 Pei, Minxin, 72 Pelosi, Nancy, 232 Perkins, Dexter, 289nll Peronism, 95-96 “Perpetual Peace” (Kant), 106 Peters, Gary, 259n39 Petraeus, David, 116,239 Philippines, 143-44 Phillips, William, 179, 288n80 Platt Amendment, 129 Pledge of Allegiance, 95 pluralism, 85 plurilateralism, 56-61 poison frog strategy, 231-32,298n32 Poland, 144 Polanyi, Karl, 85,86,132,134 political polarization dangers of, 240-41 digital technology and, 103 economic inequalities and, 82, 240 political intervention and, 29,44 populism and, 144,148-49,151 social media and, 144 Politkovskaya, Anna, 169 Pompeo, Michael, 44,49 populism Brazil, 116 economic inequalities and, 7,144,148 imperialism/colonialism and, 102 Italian Fascism and, 166,180 liberal foreign policy and, 118 nationalism and, 95-96, 98
318 populism (continued) political polarization and, 144,148-49, 151 Russian opposition to, 180-81 Trump administration and, 123-24,145 See also Trump, Donald, and administra tion Portugal, 149 post-Cold War era international order, 124 multilateralism, 55-56 NATO during, 56 "Organization of European States” pro posal, 138,247,28Խ45,303-4«2 peacekeeping, 56 Russian economic collapse, 96 as unipolar hegemonic system, 2,69-70 US foreign policy, 136-37,281«42 Western warm peace during, 16 Powell, Colin, 137 Pragmatic Revolt in Politics, The (Elliott), 284nll Pragmatic Sanction of 1713,254«34 Prigozhin, Yevgeny, 37 Primo de Rivera, Miguel, 158 Prison Notebooks (Gramsci), 162 private property, 120, 173 propaganda, 97,103, 105 proxy wars balance-of-power systems and, 18 Cold War and, 7,24,26, 40,253«14, 260-6Խ55,264« 1 definitions of cold wars and, 14 Syrian civil war as, 45,262n69 Ukraine invasion as, 40,45, 60 public health, 51, 60, 96-97 See also COVID-19 pandemic Pussy Riot, 105 Putin, Vladimir approval ratings, 97 authoritarianism and, 103-4,139,154 color revolutions and, 125 corporatism and, 88 cyber warfare and, 150, 234-35,300n47 on future scenarios, 216-17 great power prestige and, 98,139 human rights and, 57 Italian Fascism analogies and, 165 kleptocracy and, 104 loss/recovery of empire and, 96,140 Mussolini and, 154 nationalism and, 96 Index on NATO expansion, 139-40,227-28 rise to power, 169,28Խ47 Russian political intervention and, 21, 29-30,31 Trump and, 6, 50,144,147 US political intervention accusations and, 29 wealth of, 274«65 See also Russia; Ukraine invasion
Quebec Case (Canada), 296«8 Quigley, Harold, 201 racism economic inequalities and, 246 in liberal, capitalist democracies, 121 US interwar relations with Japan and, 182,183,184-85,199, 288n2 US policy toward Nazi Germany and, 178, 288n78 white nationalism, 7,95,145,148, 241 Raimondo, Gina, 39 ransomware attacks, 27-28,31,32, 150, 216,235 Rawls, John, 122 Reagan, Ronald, 130,132 Reeves, Richard, 242 refugee crises, 52, 134,144 Reinsch, Paül, 292ո62 "Responsibility to Protect” doctrine, 58-59 REvil, 27, 28,31 Roman Empire, 165,170,179 Roosevelt, Eleanor, 54 Roosevelt, Franklin D. hot war and, 22 on isolationism, 213 Italian Fascism and, 158,160,171, 172-73,284n5 "Quarantine Speech,” 180 Roosevelt, Theodore, 292«62 Root, Elihu, 292n62 Rosneft, 36 Rothermere, Lord (Harold Sidney Harmsworth), 178 Rubio, Marco, 143,259n39 Rudd, Kevin, 35,252«2 ruscism, 97-98 Russia assassinations by, 31,33,34,41, 104, 169 authoritarianism in, 103-6,139, 154, 169 Chechnya and, 46,169,217 comparative threat of, 42,228, 298n26
319 Index corporatism in, 86-88 crony capitalism, 167 deaths of despair, 96-97 disinformation in, 97,103,105 domestic security issues, 108, 275n83, 277»108 on future scenarios, 216-17 GDP of, 266nn9-10 global cyber warfare treaties and, 53 great power prestige and, 98,139 GRU Unit 29155,31 human rights violations, 41,46, 57, 118 hybrid warfare, 31 hyper-weapons, 45 International Investment Bank and, 33 Italian Fascism compared, 180-81,198 kleptocracy in, 2,104 military capacity of, 45,48, 64, 73,180, 224 multilateralism and, 47 nationalism, 96-98 NATO Partnership for Peace and, 138-39 natural gas exports, 41,80,93,268n38 perspectives on new cold war, 29,42-44 ransomware attacks by, 27-28, 31,150, 216,235 terrorism in, 275n83 US political intervention accusations, 29 See also corporatist, nationalist autoc racies; new cold war; Russian foreign policy Russian Civil War, 127-28,184,279n20 Russian foreign policy, 114-17 African countries and, 36-37 alignment with China, 35-36,46, 64,117, 208,236-37 authoritarianism and, 139 corruption and, 116-17 Crimea annexation, 7,83, 98,222-23, 225-26 Georgia and, 5,139 human rights and, 111, 116 Italian Fascist foreign policy compared, 180-81 loss/recovery of empire and, 83,96,102, 140 North Korea sanctions and, 54 opposition to populism and, 180-81 political intervention and, 21,28-31, 43, 51,216,235,236,301n56 state cyber espionage, 27,28,98,150,227 Ukraine crisis (2013-14) and, 97,282n52 See also authoritarian defensiveness; Ukraine invasion Russo-Japanese War (1895), 194 sabotage, 28,32,43, 98,150,227,235 Saito, Hirosi, 291n58 Salman,
Mohammed bin, 225,278«14 Saudi Arabia human rights violations, 225,278nl4 Iranian relations with, 16,225 Ukraine invasion and, 225 Schlesinger, Arthur, 130 Schmitt, Carl, 99 Schmitter, Philippe, 84-85 Scholz, Olaf, 41 Schumer, Charles, 143 Scottish independence, 30 SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organiza tion), 55 self-determination, 223, 229, 296»8 Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, 229,266nl2 Serbia, 139 Seven Years’ War, 22 Shanghai Communiqué, 49,229 Shepard, Walter J., 159 Shibusawa Eiichi, 187 Shidehara Kijuro, 187,189 Simonovič, Ivan, 226 “Sinatra doctrine,” 55 Snowden, Edward, 27 Snyder, Jack, 75,198 Snyder, Timothy, 97-98 social credit programs, 108,275«82 social democracy, 86 See ako social welfare liberalism social media, 144,239,301n56 Social Origins ofDictatorship and Democracy (Moore), 100-101 social welfare liberalism, 119,120,130 Socialism Italian Fascist opposition to, 83,155,161, 164,166,167,168,181,269n3 US liberal interwar mistrust of, 173,178 soft power, 73 SolarWinds attack (2020), 27, 31,150 Soleimani, Qasem, 146 Solomon Islands, 37-38 Somalia, 130 South Africa, 14, 16 South China Sea, Chinese policy toward authoritarian defensiveness or hyperna tionalism and, 108-9
320 South China Sea, Chinese policy toward (continued) as buffer zone, 5 future scenarios and, 216 hegemonic transition and, 79 imperialism/colonialism and, 154 interwar Japan expansionism compared, 154 political intervention and, 42 state cyber espionage and, 27 strategies for cold peace and, 7,228-29, 232 US policy and, 44,48-49,232 South Korea, 146 South Manchuria Railway Company. See Mantetsu Soviet collapse, 1 African countries and, 37 authoritarianism and, 102 end of Cold War and, 55 international cooperation challenges and, 74 nationalism and, 96 Ukraine invasion and, 96,115 unipolar hegemonic system and, 69 Soviet Union Afghan War, 40,218,26Խ55 authoritarianism, 158 invasion of Czechoslovakia, 4 Japanese interwar relations with, 189 US interwar distrust of, 189 See also Cold War; Soviet collapse Spain, 149 Spanish-American War, 129 Spencer, Henry R., 158 Spencer, Richard, 148 “Stab in the Back Speech” (Roosevelt), 160 Stalin, Joseph, 158 state cyber espionage, 27,28,31-33, 98,150, 227,258n30 state cyber sabotage, 28,32,43, 98,150, 227,235 state-owned enterprises (SOEs), 87,89,94, 125,271-72n36 See also corporatism Steiner, Zara, 290»39 Stewart, William Kilborne, 158 Stimson, Henry, 201,292n63 Stimson Doctrine, 190 Straight, Willard, 292n62 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaties (SALT I and II), 218-19 Index structural realism, 119,142 Stuxnet attack on Iran (2009), 28,43,233 Sudan, 110-11 Sullivan, John J., 37 Summit for Democracy (2021), 36 superpowers. See international order surveillance state, 34,102-3,107 SVR-Nobeliutn, 31 Sweden, 40,80,140, 149-50,217 Swift,
Jonathan, 76-77,267n27 Switzerland, 121 Syrian civil war human rights and, 111, 116 humanitarian assistance negotiations, 237-38 humanitarian disaster and, 52 peacekeeping and, 59 as proxy war, 45,262n69 refugee crisis and, 52,144 Russian attacks on medical facilities, 34, 259n36 Russian intervention in, 83,217,275и83 Russian military capacity and, 64, 98 terrorism and, 275n83 US retreat, 146 Taisho (emperor ofJapan), 191 Taiwan Chinese policy toward, 36,44,48-49,230, 298и28 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 35 Cold War and, 229 democratic self-determination and, 230 poison frog strategy, 231-32,298w32 strategies for cold peace and, 229-33, 298n28,30 US policy toward, 36,39, 44, 229-31, 232 Taiwan Relations Act (1979) (United States), 229-30 Tallinn Manuals, 233-34 Tanzania, 50 technology industries middle powers and, 80 US-Chinese relations and, 33-34,39, 50, 108, 111, 244,258»30 Tencent, 91,108 terminology, 12-13,14, IS terrorism, 51,52,275n83 Thatcher, Margaret, 132 “Third World,” 50, 127,128-30 Thucydides Trap, 4, 78,124-25,268n29
Index Tiananmen Square protests (1989), 1,44, 108,113,186 tianxia, 99 Tibet, 49, 99 TikTok, 39, 92,143 Tinkov, Oleg Y., 88 Titan Rain operation (2005), 31 Tomz, Michael, 122 totalitarianism, 162,164 transnational strategy, 280n31 TransPacific Partnership, 146 treaties cold peace and, 16 Treaty of Versailles, 180 Treinin, Dmitri, 252n2 triangulation, 232-33,236 Trujillo, Rafael, 130 Trump, Donald, and administration as anomaly in new cold war, 5-6 arms control and, 146 authoritarianism and, 49,82, 83, 144-45 Capitol putsch, 4, 36, 147,148,210,217, 246 climate change and, 221 crony capitalism and, 94 cyber warfare by, 43 cyberweapons and, 257n22 democratic coalition proposals by, 49 economic inequalities and, 135,144, 242 European Union and, 46 human rights and, 57 middle powers and, 50 National Security Strategy, 12, 17-18, 20, 253-54ип20,25 nationalism and, 113,144,145 NATO and, 61,146 new cold war invocations by, 12, 34-35, 141-42,252n3 North Korea and, 145-46 Russian political intervention and, 29-31, 51 threats to democracy and, 123-24 US-Chinese relations and, 12, 33,34-35, 141-42,215 US-Russian relations and, 6,51 white nationalism and, 7, 145,241 Tsikhanouskaya, Sviatlana, 116 Tucker, Robert, 255«35 Tufekci, Zeynep, 103 Uighurs. See Chinese oppression of Uighurs Ukraine 321 Crimea annexation, 7, 83,98, 222-23, 225-26 crisis (2013-14), 97, 181,222,253«17, 282«52 Donbas, 45,223-24,226 European Union membership, 140, 282n52 NATO membership possibility, 140,223, 228 as Russian buffer zone, 5 Russian state cyber sabotage against, 28, 29, 98,227 strategies for cold peace
and, 7, 222-28, 297nl8 See also Ukraine invasion (2022) Ukraine invasion (2022), 2,4 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 36,208, 236-37 corporatism and, 88, 93 future scenarios and, 216,217 great power prestige and,, 98, 139 international order and, 80,83 Kozyrev’s foreign policy vision and, 114 middle powers and, 49-50, 79-80 motivations for, 115 nationalism and, 98 NATO and, 40,45, 60,80,217,225 NATO expansion as motive for, 138-40 as proxy war, 40,45, 60 Russian-African relations and, 37 Russian authoritarianism and, 103-4 Russian military capacity and, 64,224 Russian natural gas exports and, 41,80,93 sanctions on Russia and, 4,80,225,227 Soviet collapse and, 96,115 strategies for cold peace and, 224-25 Trump and, 147 Ullman, Richard, 247-48 UN Security Council authoritarian foreign policy and, 116 bypassing of, 80, 139 Chinese seat on, 214-15,229 Cold War and, 54-55 Crimea annexation and, 225 human rights and, 116 increasing tensions in, 34,59-60 international order and, 124,215 multilateral compromise and, 237-38, 30Խ52 North Korean nuclear program and, 53-54, 60 Taiwan and, 229
322 unipolar hegemonie systems, 2, 67, 68, 69-70 United Nations Charter, 53,146,222, 237 Chinese policy toward, 49 Crimea annexation and, 225-26 cyber warfare and, 113,299n41 democratic coalition proposals and, 237 human rights and, 57,58-59 limited-target arms control strategies and, 235 new cold war rivalry in, 59-60 Ukraine invasion and, 49-50, 80 See also peacekeeping; UN Security Council United Russia Party, 87 United States Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) (2021), 39 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), 54 urbanization, 51 Urbinati, Nadia, 95-96 US-Chinese relations Alaska Summit, 36,46 Chinese cyber warfare and, 32, 92-93, 234 COVID-19 pandemic and, 38 technology industries and, 33-34,39,50, 108, 111, 244,258»30 trade agreement (2020), 258n30 trade deficit, 33 trade war, 82, 92,142-43,148 See also new cold war US domestic politics admiration of Italian Fascism, 155, 157-59,174 Chinese autocractic influence and, 82 climate change and, 221 Cold War/new cold war compared and, 50-51 corporatism and, 93-94 immigration policy, 171-72,244,288n2 infrastructure needs, 149 necessary changes, 7 New Deal, 155,158-59,172,284n5 political polarization, 82,148-49,240-41 racism and, 121,178,182,183,246, 288n2 reform proposals, 238-45 Russian political intervention in, 21, 28-31,43,51,216,235,236 state direction of economy, 82 Index threats to democracy, 123-24,238-39, 240-41 Trump’s authoritarianism and, 49, 82, 83, 144-45 white nationalism and, 7,95,145,148, 241 See also economic inequalities US foreign policy accommodation to authoritarian coun tries, 149-50 African
countries and, 37 alignment with European Union, 46 alliances and, 125,146 Committee on the Present Danger and, 141-42 current isolationism, 161 cyber warfare use, 27,28,43,233 defensive motivations of, 3 imperialism/colonialism and, 127,129, 137 interwar anti-Semitism and, 155,177-78, 180,283nl, 288nn75, 77 interwar isolationism, 158,174,175-76, 177,180,185,186,289»11 Israel and, 146-47 Lodge Corollary, 183,288w4 military intervention and, 24, 50, 80, 127, 138,184,279»20 Nazi Germany and, 160,161,177-79, 180,288nn75,77-78 NSC 68 (1950), 23 political intervention and, 29 post-Cold War era, 136-37,281и42 relations with Fascist Italy, 155,171-76 Taiwan and, 36,39,44,229-31,232 threats to Russia and China, 5,140-41 Trump National Security Strategy, 12, 17-18,20,253-54nn20, 25 Trumpian unilateralism, 145,146 US-Russian Geneva Summit (2021), 234-35,300n47 See also liberal foreign policy; US interwar relations with Japan US interwar relations with Japan, 182-90 China-centric vs. Japan-centric approaches, 185-86,190, 201,292n62 cooperation, 182,184,186-89,199-200, 203,289»14 garrison state theory and, 201,291и59 Japanese imperialism/colonialism and, 200,201,29Խ58 Japanese oil dependence and, 195
323 Index League of Nations sanctions and, 201, 292n63 Lodge Corollary and, 183,288n4 new cold war with China compared, 6, 155-56, 183,186,190, 198-99,202-3, 202 Open Door controversies and, 182-83, 184,185,187,188, 200,202, 291n58 racism and, 182,183,184-85,199,288n2 Taisho democratization and, 184,190, 191 US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, 145 USAID cyberattack, 31 Venezuela, 42-43,52,59 Vershbow, Alexander, 104 Victor Emmanuel (king of Italy), 168, 286я37 Vienna Declaration, 55-56 Vietnam War, 4,40,129,260-6 ln55 Voltaire, 273я52 Waltz, Kenneth, 75 Wang Yi, 35,46,48,217,222 war defined, 14 liberal imprudence and, 126-27 states of, 14,15,16 warm peace, 15,16 Warren, Elizabeth, 259я39 Warsaw Pact, 55 See also Cold War Washington Conference treaties (1921-22), 182,186-90,289я14 Washington consensus, 132 Weeks, Jessica, 106,122 Weinstein, Kenneth, 12 white nationalism, 7,95, 145,148,241 Whitehouse, Sheldon, 116,239 WikiLeaks, 43 Wilson, Woodrow, 183,184-85,187 Winnti APT Group, 27 Winters, Jeffrey, 94 “wolfwarrior” diplomacy (China), 48, 113-14,151,214,215,294nll Wolfowitz, Paul, 136-37 Women’s March (2017) (United States), 236 World Bank, 109,131 World Health Organization (WHO), 59 World Trade Organization (WTO), 91,124, 134,142,148,190,214-15,282я55 World War I chain-ganging and, 75 corporatism and, 86 isolationism and, 176 Italian Fascism and, 161,163,164,170,173 Japan and, 190 postwar international order, 124 skepticism toward liberal capitalism and, 158 See also Paris Peace Conference World War II cooperation across ideological divides during, 22, 25,255я37 imposition
of democracy and, 251я6 legitimacy as basis of, 22 Pearl Harbor attack, 203 postwar international order, 124 Writings on the Wall, The: Who Shall Govern Next (Child), 159 “X Article” (Kennan), 23 Xi Jinping and regime Alaska Summit, 36,46 authoritarian defensiveness and, 99, 109 authoritarianism and, 107,151 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 208 corporatism and, 88, 90,270я21 COVID-19 pandemic and, 150 cyber warfare and, 234 on future scenarios, 215-16,294ЯІЗ hegemonic transition and, 78 ideological divides and, 99 on international order, 109,208,215, 294я13 on new cold war, 46, 78 on Taiwan, 36,230,298я28 Trump administration and, 12 See also China Xinjiang. See Chinese oppression of Uighurs Yanukovych, Viktor, 115 Ye Qing, 90 Yeltsin, Boris, 96, 97,104,169,281я47 Yuan Shikai, 184 Yukos, 169 Zakaria, Fareed, 225 Zegart, Amy, 65 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 139-40 Zelikow, Philip, 230-31 Zhao Lijian, 10,38,294я11 Zona Prava, 105 Zuckerberg, Mark, 143 J Bayerische I Staatsbibliothek ’ München |
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Contents introduction From Cold War to Cold Peace 1 Part One 9 A NEW COLD WAR? chapter one Defining Cold War 11 chapter two Cold War П? 26 Part Two THE SOURCES OF CONFLICT chapter three Superpower Systems, Hegemonic Transitions, and Multidimensional Polarity 69 бз
Chapter four Corporatist, Nationalise Autocracies 81 chapter five Liberal, Capitalist Democracies 118 Part Three DISTANT MIRRORS ITALY, JAPAN, AND THE UNITED STATES FROM THE 1920S TO THE 1930S chapter six chapter seven 153 Italian Fascism and American Politics 157 Japanese Militarism and American Policy 182 Part Four COLD PEACE 205 chapter eight Future Scenarios 210 chapter nine Four Bridges to a Cold Peace 220 Afterword and Acknowledgments 247 Notes 2S1 Index 305
Index Affordable Care Act (АСА) (United States), 244 Afghan War (1979-89), 40,218, 261n55 Afghanistan imposition of democracy and, 251»6, 283и71 Russian assassinations in, 34 Soviet invasion of, 40,218,261n55 US attack on (2001), 139 US withdrawal from, 41 African countries, 14,16, 36-37, 60, 80 Agenda for Peace (1992), 56 Airbus, 94 Alibaba, 90, 91,108 Allende, Salvador, 129 alliances balance-of-power systems and, 18,75 democratic coalition proposals and, 237 liberal separate peace and, 125 strategies for cold peace and, 227-28, 237 Trump administration and, 146 See also specific alliances Allison, Graham, 4, 78 Anatomy ofFascism, The (Paxton), 163 Angola, 37 Ant Group, 90, 91 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, 218,219 anti-Semitism, 155,177-78,180,283nl, 288ии75, 77 appeasement, 75,175-76,179-80,288»81 Arbenz, Jacobo, 129 Arendt, Hannah, 97 Aristide, Jean-Bertrand, 130 Armenia, 217 arms control Cold War and, 218 European Union accusations against Russia and, 41 League of Nations and, 186 liberal failures in, 127 limited-target strategies, 235 New START, 227,232 strategies for cold peace and, 141 Trump administration and, 146 US interwar period foreign policy and, 176 arms races balance-of-power systems and, 18 Cold War and, 64,73,218 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 109 Aslund, Anders, 274n65 Assad, Bashar al-, 111, 146,217,238,262n69 See also Syrian civil war AUKUS (Australia, UK, US Alliance), 80 Australia,42, 111, 151,294и11
306 authoritarian defensiveness, 99,151-52, 275ո87,294»11 as basic source of conflict, “a world safe for autocracy,” 3-4 Belt and Road Initiative and, 112 Hong Kong and, 108-9 indirect imposition, Sudan, 110-11 liberal human rights and, 99,118,125 Trump administration policies toward China and, 215 authoritarianism China, 106-8,151,186,190,275я82 evolution of, 100-101 future scenarios and, 212 Great Depression and, 290»39 Italian Fascism and, 167-69, 286n37 Russia, 103-6, 139,154,169 Soviet Union, 158 surveillance and, 102-3 Trump and, 49,82,83,144-45 variety of, 101-2 war and, 126 See ako corporatist, nationalist autocra cies; Italian Fascism autocracy. See authoritarianism; corporatist, nationalist autocracies Azerbaijan, 217 Baidu, 108 balance-of-power systems, 18-20, 21,22, 75, 236,253»13,254n23,255»35 Balbo, Italo, 157,161,171 Bannon, Stephen, 141-42 Baruch Plan, 218 Bay of Pigs incident (1961), 24, 138 Beaverbrook, Lord (Max Aitken), 178 Belarus, 115,1Ï6,181 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (China), 46, 50,109-10,111-12,151,154, 194,203 Bennet, Michael, 259n39 Berger, Sandy, 247 Berger, Victor, 173 Berlin, Isaiah, 97 Berman, Sheri, 123 Biden, Hunter, 30 Biden, Joseph R., and administration, 2 Alaska Summit, 36,46 arms control and, 227 Belt and Road Initiative and, 112 climate change and, 221 cyber warfare and, 92-93, 234-35, 300n47 Index democratic coalition proposals, 5,36,42, 44,46 disavowal of new cold war, 46,217 economic equality policies and, 243-44, 302»70 on future scenarios, 210-12 human rights and, 36,45,46,57 on ideological divide, 6,13,20,68, 79 on
international cooperation challenges, 208-9 new cold war invocations by, 2,13,38,40 on Russian political intervention, 21,31 on stakes of new cold war, 207 student debt cancellation, 244 Trumpian populism and, 145 Ukraine invasion and, 80 bipolar systems Cold War as, 21,22,24,45,47, 64, 77 globalization and, 78 ideological divides and, 76-77,267n27 imperialism/colonialism and, 77-78 stability in, 75-76 US-Chinese bipolarity in new cold war, 71-74,267nl4 Black Lives Matter, 36 Blackmatter, 235 Blackwill, Robert D., 230-31 Blinken, Antony, 13, 92-93 Boeing, 94 Bolsonaro, Jair, 116 Bolton, John, 18, 37,254n25 Borrell, Josep, 53 Brands, Hal, 79 Brazil, 116 Bretton Woods institutions, 47, 100,109, 112,124,131 Brexit, 30, 95,144 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations, 35, 71,135 Brown, Sherrod, 259n39 Budapest Convention (2001), 53 Build Back Better World (B3W), 112 bureaucratic authoritarianism, 102 Burns, Nicholas, 60-61 Burr, Richard, 30 Bush, George H. W., and administration, 137 Bush, George W., and administration cyber warfare by, 28,43 Iraq War, 50,80,82,118,125, 141 Cai Xia, 216 Camp David Accords, 16
Index Canada, 36,296n8 Capitol putsch (January 6,2021), 4, 36,147, 148,210,217,246 Carter, Jimmy, 130,229 Cassin, René, 54 Castle, William, 292nn62-63 Castlereagh, Viscount (Robert Stewart), 19 CENTO (Central Treaty Organization), 55 Central African Republic, 37 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 43 chain-ganging, 75 Chamberlain, Neville, 178,179-80 Charap, Samuel, 253nl7 Charles VI (Holy Roman Emperor), 254n34 Chase, Kerry, 197 Chen Quanguo, 107 Cheney, Dick, 137 Chiang Kai-shek, 155,229 Child, Richard Washburn, 159 Chile, 129 China accusations of US political intervention in, 29,44 age imbalance in, 72 authoritarianism in, 106-8,151, 186, 190,275»82 climate change and, 221,222 comparative threat of, 42,228,298n26 corporatism in, 88-93,270nn20-21 Document Nine (2013), 99 domestic security issues, 108,277nl08 end of Cold War and, 2 on future scenarios, 214-16 growing global influence of, 68 hegemonic transition and, 78-79,117 ideals for international order, 47,49, 56-57,99,109,208,215,294nl3 interwar Open Door controversies, 183, 184,185, 187,188,200,202, 291n58 Japanese imperialism/colonialism in, 184, 187,188 military capacity of, 48, 73,78-79 nationalism in, 98-100,108,113-14 perspectives on new cold war, 29,44-45, 46, 79,217 policy toward Taiwan, 36,44,48-49,230, 298n28 post-Cold War era international order and, 124 social credit program, 108,275и82 strategies for cold peace and, 228-33 surveillance state in, 34 307 “third revolution,” 107,275n79 Tiananmen Square protests, 1,44,108, 113,186 Tibet and, 49, 99 trade with European Union, 150-51 Ukraine invasion and, 36,
60,208,236-37 UN Security Council role, 214-15,229 US distrust of, 33-35,38,141-42,215 US interwar relations with Japan compared, 6,155-56,183,186,190, 198-99,202-3,202 US state cyber espionage against, 27 WTO and, 124,142,190,214-15,282и55 See also Chinese foreign policy; Chinese oppression of Uighurs; corporatist, nationalist autocracies; new cold war; Xi Jinping and regime Chinese economic growth Cold War/new cold war compared and, 3, 45,48,64 future scenarios and, 212-13 globalization and, 136 interwar Japan and, 154 limits on, 72-73 “Made in China 2025” plan, 39,143 technology industry, 33-34,39,50,108, 111, 143,244,258n30 TransPacific Partnership and, 146 US-Chinese bipolarity and, 71,72 US interwar relations with Japan com pared, 202-3 Chinese foreign policy, 108-14 alignment with Russia, 35-36,46, 64, 117,208, 236-37 Belt and Road Initiative, 46,50,109-10, 111-12,151,154,194,203 see also Mantetsu (South Manchuria Rail way Company) cyber industrial espionage, 27,32-33, 39, 92-93,113,234, 258»30 hegemonic transition and, 117 human rights and, 110-11 information-influence operations and, 35,42, 259n39 Iran and, 35,46, 89,270n20 Japanese militarism in 1930s, compared, 202-03 loss/recovery of empire and, 83, 98, 99-100,102 nationalism and, 108,113-14 North Korea sanctions and, 54 ransomware attacks by, 32
308 Chinese foreign policy (continued) Solomon Islands and, 37-38 state cyber espionage, 27,31-33, 92-93, 258и30 state cyber sabotage, 32 “wolf warrior” diplomacy, 48,113-14, 151,214,215,294»11 See aho authoritarian defensiveness; Mantetsu (South Manchuria Railway Company) Chinese oppression of Uighurs, 34,99,107 See also international human rights con demnation of China CHIPS and Science Act (2022) (United States), 244 Christensen, Thomas, 75,142 Churchill, Winston, 23,25 civic nationalism, 95 civil rights movement, 243 civil society, 57,83 Clausewitz, Carl von, 76 clientelist corporatism, 87-88 climate change global interdependence and, 50,221 international disorder and, 52 strategies for cold peace and, 220-22, 295nl Clinton, Bill, and administration, 130,141, 247,281»n45,47 Clinton, Hillary, 95,145,149 CNAs. See corporatist, nationalist autoc racies cold peace defined, 16-17 examples of, 15,253nl7 See also cold peace, strategies for cold peace, strategies for, 6-8, 16,220-45 arms control and, 141 balance-of-power strategies, 236-37 China and, 228-33 climate change and, 220-22,295nl containment, 232 cyber warfare and, 206, 233-36, 299n41 democratic coalition, 237-38 nonsubversion pact, 4, 7 Taiwan and, 229-33,298и28, 30 triangulation, 232-33 Ukraine and, 7,222-28,297nl8 US reform, 7,238-45 Cold War African countries and, 36-37 armistices, 224 Index arms control and, 218 arms race and, 64,73,218 balance-of-power strategies and, 236 bipolar nature of, 21,22,24,45,47, 64, 77 characteristics of, 24-25,46-47 cooperation during, 218-19 costs of, 7, 206,2S2n7 détente, 4,16
globalization and, 131-32 hegemonic cooperation during, 67 human rights and, 54 ideological divide and, 20,21,23-24,25, 47, 77 International Investment Bank and, 33 Kennedy’s "Ich Bin Ein Berliner” speech, 48 NATO and, 55 new cold war compared, 3,45-51, 64 peacekeeping and, 54-55,219 political interventions and, 21 proxy wars during, 7,24,26,40,253nl4, 260-6Խ55,264»! Soviet-Chinese rivalry during, 22,236 stability during, 264nl Taiwan and, 229 trade and, 93 US accommodation to authoritarian states and, 149 US distrust of Soviet Union and, 127-28 US military interventions during, 129-31 See also Cold War, end of Cold War, end of elements of, 55 “end of history” theory and, 69-70,82,121 irony in, 1-2 See also post-Cold War era Cold War, The (Lippman), 14 cold wars defined, 14,20-21 examples of, IS, 253«15 great power competition and, 20 ideological divides and, 21 legitimacy as basis of, 22 variety of, 22 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, 27, 31, 150,235 colonialism. See imperialism/colonialism color revolutions, 125 Colton, Timothy J., 253nl7 Committee on the Present Danger, 141-42 Concert of Europe diplomacy (1815-30), 16, 18-20, 21, 85
Index Congo, 55 Congress ofVienna (1815), 255ո35 See also Concert of Europe diplomacy containments, 14,253nl3 Cornwell, David (John le Carré), 1-2 corporatism, 84-94 China, 88-93, 270wn20-21 Italian Fascism and, 166-67,285n32 Japan, 182 in liberal, capitalist democracies, 93-94, 271-72n36 marketization as source of, 85-86, 269n6 Russia, 86-88 types of, 84-85 corporatist, nationalist autocracies (CNAs) corruption and, 116 diversity among, 103 foreign policies, 105,108-17 nationalism, 94-100 Russian-Chinese similarities and differ ences, 83 similarities to Italian Fascism and Japa nese Militarism, 83,268-69и2 transparency and, 93 Trump’s affinity for, 49, 82, 83 US accommodation to, 149-50 See also authoritarian defensiveness; authoritarianism; China; corporatism; interwar Japan; Italian Fascism; Russia Cotton, Tom, 38,143 COVID-19 pandemic corporatism and, 93 future scenarios and, 215 international disorder and, 51 liberal democratic distrust of China and, 38,150 new cold war conflict spirals and, 150, 151 state espionage and, 54 US-Chinese relations and, 38 US-Chinese/Russian rivalry and, 59, 60, 111 Crimea annexation, 7,83, 98,222-23, 225-26 crony capitalism, 94,167 Cruz, Ted, 259n39 Cuba, 24,138 cyber warfare banning proposals, 206 Chinese technology and, 39,143 dangers of, 206 deterrence and, 113 309 forms of, 27-30,255n2 future scenarios and, 211 global interdependence and, 256n4 global treaties on, 53 hack-and-dump operations, 43 identity theft, 31 industrial espionage, 27,32-33, 39, 92-93,113,234,258n30 international disorder and, 51 legal constraints on, 113 new
cold war characteristics and, 26, 27-33, 65 new cold war conflict spirals and, 150 political intervention, 21,28-31,43, 51, 216,235-36, 30Խ56 ransomware attacks, 27-28, 31,32,150, 216, 235 state espionage, 27, 28, 31-33,98,150, 227,258n30 state sabotage, 28, 32,43, 98,150,227, 235 strategies for cold peace and, 206,23336,299n41 terrorism and, 51 threats to democracy from, 7 Trump administration presidential find ing, 43 ubiquitous use of, 233 US-Chinese agreement (2015), 234 US-Russian agreement (2021), 234-35 US use of, 27, 28,43,233 Czech Republic, 48 Dahl, Robert, 122 D’Annunzio, Gabriele, 162,163, 166 Darfur, 110-11 DarkSide, 27,31,235 Dastyari, Sam, 42 Davis, Norman H., 175 Dawisha, Karen, 103, 104 de Grazia, Victoria, 169 “Declaration of War on Germany” speech (Roosevelt), 160 democracy China’s sovereigntist approach, 56-57 cyber warfare as threat to, 7 defensive goals, a “world safe for democ racy” , 3-4,151 global trends in, 122-23,123,144-45,239 globalization as trade-off with, 134 Gorbachev on, 55 imposition of, 3,25Խ6,283n71
310 democracy (continued) social media and, 239, 30Խ56 US domestic threats to, 123-24,238-39, 240-41 US reform proposals, 239-40, 243 warm peace and, 16 See also liberal, capitalist democracies democratic coalition proposals, 5,36,42, 44, 46,237-38 democratic peace thesis, 67 Deng Xiaoping, 88,107 Derkach, Andrii, 30 détente, 4,16 See also cold peace, strategies for deterrence cyber warfare and, 113 nuclear weapons and, 24,139,141,156, 180,203,206 Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, 229,266nl2 Dickenson, Frederick, 289nl4 “Doctrine of Fascism” (Mussolini), 161-62, 165,167 dollar-diplomacy imperialism, 129 domestic inequalities. See economic inequal ities Donbas, 45,223-24,226 Dreher, Rod, 147 Drucker, Peter, 280n31 Dulles, John Foster, 128 Duterte, Rodrigo, 143-44 dynastic rivalries, 14,22 Eagleburger, Lawrence S., 114 East Timor, 223 Ecco, Umberto, 165 economic crisis (2008-2009), 144 economic inequalities Chinese authoritarianism and, 82 Chinese foreign policy and, 111 corporatism and, 93-94 global, 135-36 globalization and, 134-36,243 international disorder and, 51,263«84 populism and, 7,144, 148 reform proposals and, 7,240,241-42, 243-45, 302и70 Economy, Elizabeth C., 88-89,275n79 El Salvador, 130 “Elephant Chart” (World Bank), 135 Ellickson, Robert, 67-68 Elliott, William Yandell, 174,284» 11 embedded liberalism, 132 Index empire, loss and recovery of beached diasporas and, 223 Chinese foreign policy and, 83,98, 99-100,102 Italian Fascism and, 165,170,179 Russian foreign policy and, 83,96,102, 140 Ukraine invasion and, 96,115 See also imperialism/colonialism “end of history”
theory, 69-70,82,121 Enlightenment, 273»52 environmental resilience new cold war threats to, 7 espionage industrial, 27,32-33,39, 92-93, 113,234, 258n30 state, 27, 28,31-33, 98,150,227,258o30 Ethiopia, 159,165,166,170-71,172-73, 178 ethno-nationalism, 95,99,272»39 "Eurasianism,” 98 European Medicines Agency cyberattack (2021), 27 European Union (EU) Chinese cyber warfare against, 41 on Chinese human rights violations, 36, 57,150-51 Chinese information-influence opera tions against, 42 Chinese trade with, 150-51 civilian orientation of, 46, 64 Eastern European dependence on, 2 “Eurasianism” as alternative to, 98 International Investment Bank and, 33 international order and, 267»13 on new cold war, 40-42, 26Խ57 Russian authoritarianism and, 140 Russian political intervention in, 29, 30, 301и56 strategies for cold peace and, 227 Ukrainian membership, 140,282n52 US alignment with, 46 warm peace and, 16 Facebook, 28,144, 239 facial-recognition technology, 103,107 Facta, Luigi, 168 Fascism. See Italian Fascism Feldman, Noah, 12-13 financial crises, 51,144 Finchelstein, Federico, 95-96 Finland, 40,80,140,217
Index First Sino-Japanese War (1894), 194 For the People Act (HR 1) (United States), 239-40 France, 30,80 Franck, Louis, 167 Franco, Francisco, 149 Franco-Prussian War (1870), 20 Frederick the Great (king of Prussia), 22 Freedman, Lawrence, 12,106 Frye, Tim, 87 Fukuyama, Francis, 69-70 future scenarios Chinese perspectives, 214-16 Russian perspectives, 216-17 US perspectives, 210-14,293я4 See also cold peace, strategies for G7,10, 111, 112 Gaddis, John, 264«1 garrison state, 201,29Խ59 Gazprom, 35-36 General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs (GATT), 131 Gentile, Giovanni, 165 Gentiloni, Paolo, 41 George III (king of England), 22 Georgia, 5,139 Gerasimov, Valery, 42 Germany imposition of democracy and, 251 «6, 283n71 nineteenth-century unification wars, 19-20 reunification, 137 Russian natural gas exports and, 41, 80, 93 Ukraine invasion and, 80 Giolitti, Giovanni, 162,168 Giuliani, Rudolph, 30 Gladstone, William, 129 global interdependence, 3 climate change and, 50,221 corporatism and, 86 cyber warfare and, 256n4 future scenarios and, 211 global common interests and, 50 globalization and, 51,133 international cooperation challenges and, 68 international disorder and, 51-52 isolationism as untenable and, 180,213 unipolar hegemonic systems and, 70 311 Global Magnitsky Act (2016) (United States), 239 Global Trends 2040, 211-14, 293n4 globalization bipolar systems and, 78 China integration attempts, 142,282я55 Cold War era, 131-32 corporate transnational strategy and, 133, 280и31 economic inequalities and, 134-36,243 interdependence and, 51,133 marketization and, 132-33 populism
and, 144,148 trade-offs in, 134 US hegemony in, 136 Goldberg, Jeffrey, 18 Goldstone, Richard, 139 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 1, 55, 97,137,169 Graham, Thomas, 297nl8 Gramsci, Antonio, 162 Grassley, Chuck, 30 ■ Great Britain assessments of Fascist Italy, 176-77, 287n72 on Chinese human .rights violations, 36 Concert of Europe diplomacy and, 19 hegemonic transition and, 150 international order and, 267я13 Japan and, 186 Russian assassinations in, 31, 33, 34 Russian political intervention in, 30 Great Depression authoritarianism and, 290n39 Italian Fascism and, 155,157,166-67, 172 Japan and, 197,200,290я39 Great Transformation, The (Polanyi), 85 Greek financial collapse, 144 Guaidó, Juan, 43 Guatemala, 129 Gulliver’s Travels (Swift), 76-77,267n27 Guterres, António, 11-12, 60 Haberman, Joseph, 297nl8 Haiti, 130 Hara Takashi, 184 Hayek, F. A., 287t 72 Hearst, William Randolph, 178 hegemonic cooperation, 66,67,68,69-70, 74 hegemonic transition, 78-79,117,150 Herder, Johann Gottfried von, 273n52 Hirohito (emperor ofJapan), 191-92
312 History ofthe Peloponnesian War (Thucydides), 4, 78,268n29 Hitler, Adolf. See Nazi Germany Hobbes, Thomas, 18, 66,254»25 Holy Alliance, 19 Hong Kong Chinese authoritarianism and, 108-9 Chinese media companies and, 34 Chinese nationalism and, 100 corporatism and, 92 future scenarios and, 215 human rights and, 57-58 "One Country, Two Systems” agreement, 49, 100 US political intervention accusations, 29, 44,217 Western condemnation of China and, 36, 111,216 Hoover, Herbert, 127-28,292n63 Hornbeck, Stanley, 292»62 hot peace, 253nI2 hot war, 14,15,22 House, Edward, 185 Huawei, 33-34,41,80, 89,108, 111 Hughes, Charles Evans, 185 human rights authoritarian protectiveness and, 38, 110-11,116 Chinese ideals for international order and, 56 Cold War and, 54 condemnation of Russia, 41,46,118,217 democratic coalition proposals and, 237 future scenarios and, 211 Hong Kong and, 57-58 ideological divides and, 57-59 international liberal approach, 57, 118, 125,2781)14 middle powers and, 50 post-Cold War era, 55-56 “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine, 58-59 Saudi violations, 225,278nl4 strategies for cold peace and, 7,237 Summit for Democracy (2021), 36 Syrian civil war and, 111,116 See also international human rights con demnation of China; Mill, John Stuart humanitarian disasters, 52 Humphrey, John Peters, 54 Hundred Years’ War, 14, 22,253nl5 Hungary, 33,143 Index “Ich Bin Ein Berliner” speech (Kennedy), 48 identity theft, 31 ideological divides bipolar systems and, 76-77,267n27 Chinese nationalism and, 99 Cold War and, 20,21,23-24,25,47,77 cold wars and, 21 cooperation across,
22,25,255n37 hegemonic transition and, 79 human rights and, 57-59 international cooperation challenges and, 68 legitimacy and, 49, 81-82 new cold war and, 6,49,57-59,64, 68, 81-82 Ikenberry, John, 278»12 See also Bretton Woods institutions Ilyin, Ivan, 98 imperialism/colonialism bipolar systems and, 77-78 interwar Japan, 184, 187,188,192-94, 196-97,198,200,29Խ58 Italian Fascism and, 159,166,170-71, 172-73,178,179,288n80 liberal foreign policy and, 126-27,128-29 Paris Peace Conference and, 185 populism and, 102 US foreign policy and, 127,129,137 See also empire, loss and recovery of India climate change and, 221 democracy in, 101 international order and, 267nl4 Kärgil conflict, 16-17 Kashmir and, 50 new cold war conflict spirals and, 151 strategies for cold peace and, 233 Indo-Pacific Quad, 46,212,232-33 industrial espionage, 27,32-33,39, 92-93, 113,234,258и30 inequalities. See economic inequalities Inflation Reduction Act, The (2022) (United States), 244 Infrastructure and Investment Act, The (2021) (United States), 124,243-44 interdependence. See global interdependence Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, 41 international cooperation challenges, 65-68, 69-70, 74,100,208-9 International Court ofjustice, 223 international disorder
Index coopération challenges and, 65-68, 69-70 impact of new cold war on, 51-52, 263n84 international human rights condemnation of China authoritarian resentment of, 44,118,125, 216,217, 278nl4 European Union and, 36,57, 150-51 Hong Kong and, 36, 57-58, 111, 216 new cold war characteristics and, 36,49 new cold war invocations and, 46 International Investment Bank, 33 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 109, 131 international order balance-of-power systems, 18-20, 21,22, 75,236, 253nl3,254и23, 255n35 Chinese ideals for, 47,49,56-57, 99,109, 208,215,294»13 Cold War/new cold war compared, 45-47, 64 complicating tensions in, 79-80 Concert of Europe diplomacy, 16,18-20, 21, 85 cooperation and, 70 economic power and, 71-74, 71, 72 European Union and, 267«13 garrison state, 201,291n59 hegemonic transition and, 78-79, 117, 150 militaristic shocks to, 82-83 military power and, 73-74, 73-74 multipolar “chessboards,” 74 multipolar nature of new cold war, 45, 47, 64 post-Cold War era, 124 power measurement in, 71-72, 266nn3, 8,267nl4 soft power in, 73 Thucydides Trap, 4, 78,124-25, 268^29 Ukraine invasion and, 80, 83 unipolar hegemonic systems, 2, 67, 68, 69-70 See also bipolar systems interwar Japan imperialism/colonialism, 184,187, 188, 192-94,196-97,198, 200,291n58 industrialization, 195-96 Mantetsu (South Manchuria Railway Company), 192-93,203 see also Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (China) 313 military regime development, 191-92,194 nationalism, 197 roots of militarism, 195-99,290и42 Soviet relations with, 189 Taisho democratization, 184,190,191 See also US interwar relations with
Japan interwar period US isolationism, 158,174,175-76,177, 180,185,186,289»11 US-Italian relations, 155,171-76 See also interwar Japan; Italian Fascism Iran arms control and, 146 Chinese relations with, 35,46, 89,270«20 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 36 ideological divides and, 49 nuclear program, 28,43,146 Saudi relations with, 16, 225 US-British intervention in, 21,129 US-Israeli state cyber sabotage against, 28,43,233 Iraq War, 50,80, 82,118,125,141 “Iron Curtain Speech” (Churchill), 23 Ishii Kikujiro, 184 ISIS, 275n83 Islam, 16 Islamic State, 50 Israel, 28,43, 146-47, 233 Italian Fascism appeasement and, 179-80,288n81 authoritarianism and, 167-69,286и37 British assessment of, 176-77,287n72 characteristics of, 161-63 corporatism and, 166-67,285и32 imperialism/colonialism and, 159,166, 170-71,172-73, 178, 179,288»80 loss/recovery of empire and, 165,170,179 modern-day authoritarian similarities to, 83,268-69«2 nationalism and, 163-66,170 origins of, 86 promotion motivations, aggression and, 275n87 Putinism and, 6 Russia compared, 180-81,198 Russian nationalism and, 97-98 US liberal admiration of, 155,157-59,174 US liberal disenchantment with, 159-61, 174-75,179, 284nll, 287nn66, 68, 288n80 US public opinion on, 174,175 US relations with, 155,171-76
314 Italian Fascism (continued) World War I and, 161,163,164,170,173 World War II and, 22 Italy nineteenth-century unification wars, 19-20 US political intervention in, 21 See also Italian Fascism J. P. Morgan Co., 174,187 January 6,2021 Capitol putsch, 4,36, 147, 148,210,217,246 Japan post-World War II imposition of democ racy, 251n6,283ra71 Taiwan and, 231 Trump administration and, 146 See also interwar Japan JBS attack, 27,28,31,235 Jeffress, Robert, 146-47 Jerusalem, 146-47 Jiang Shigong, 99-100 John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act (HR 4) (United States), 239,240 Kahler, Miles, 198 Kajiwara Nakaji, 188 Kant, Immanuel, 67,105-6, 273n52 Kärgil conflict, 16-17 Kato Takaaiki, 184 Kato Tomosaburo, 187,188 Katznelson, Ira, 178 Kellogg-Briand Pact, 201 Kennan, George, 23,253«13 Kennedy, John F., 48,130,178 Kennedy, Joseph P., Jr., 177-78,288nn75,77 Kennedy, Joseph P., Sr., 178,180,288n77 Kerry, John, 221 Keynesianism, 131 Khan, Sulmaan Wasif, 113 Khanna, Vikram, 91 Kharas, Homi, 135 Khashoggi, Jamal, 225 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 169 Khrushchev, Nikita, 24 Kim Jong-un, 145-46 King, Angus, 259«39 Kissinger, Henry, 11,18,19, 236,255n35 Klare, Michael, 12 kleptocracy, 2,104 Knox, MacGregor, 6 Index kompromat, 29 Korean War, 40,26Խ55, 264« 1 Kosovo, 223 Kozyrev, Andrei V., 114 Kristallnacht (1938), 178 Kudlow, Larry, 142 Kushner, Jared, 94 LaFeber, Walter, 184,292nn62-63 laissez-faire (neo-conservative) liberalism, 119,120 Lakner, Christoph, 135 Lamont, Thomas W., 174,185,187 Lamont-Kajiwara Agreement, 186, 188 Lansing, Robert, 184,185 Lasswell, Harold, 201,291n59 Lavrov,
Sergei, 35, 97 le Carré, John, 1-2 League ofNations, 124,172,173,184-85, 186,200,201,292n63 Lebanon peacekeeping, 55 legitimacy authoritarianism and, 102, 106 balance-of-power systems and, 19,255n35 cold peace and, 16 cold wars and, 14,16,22 ideological divides and, 49,81-82 new cold war and, 150 self-determination and, 223, 229,230, 296n8 Taiwan and, 229,230 warm peace and, 16 Legvoid, Robert, 12,49,252n2 Leonhardt, David, 242 Li Song, 117 liberal, capitalist democracies (LCDs) admiration of Italian Fascism, 155, 157-59,174 corporatism in, 93-94,271-72«36 disenchantment with Italian Fas cism, 159-61,174-75,179,284nll, 287n«66,68,288«80 domestic politics and, 121-22 “end of history” theory and, 69-70, 82, 121 expansionist foreign policies of, 83 globalization and, 131-36 human rights and, 57,118 individual rights and, 119-20 political order in, 120-21
Index political polarization in, 148 populism and, 118 separate peace among, 125-26,136,149 transparency and, 93,113 See also democratic coalition proposals; liberal democratic distrust of nonlib eral states; liberal foreign policy; US foreign policy liberal democratic distrust of nonliberal states Cold War and, 127-28 COVID-19 pandemic and, 38,150 interwar period, 189 liberal separate peace and, 126 new cold war conflict spirals and, 150 technology competition and, 33-34 Thucydides Trap and, 124-25 Trump administration and, 12, 34-35, 141-42,215 liberal European revolutions (1920s), 19 liberal foreign policy doctrines arms control and, 127 defensive motivations of, 3-4,151 engagement and, 141,151,212 imperialism/colonialism and, 126-27, 128-29 military nonintervention, intervention and, 127,128-31,139 political order and, 120 populism and, 118 problematic nature of, 122 See also Kant, Immanuel; Mill, John Stu art; US foreign policy Libya, 50 Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963), 218 Lindbergh, Charles, 144,178,288««78, 81 Linz, Juan, 101 Lipman, Masha, 44 Lippman, Walter, 14,253«13 Liu, Eric, 243 Liu He, 110 Locarno Pact, 172 Lodge, Henry Cabot, 183 Lodge Corollary, 183,288«4 Lomborg, Bjorn, 295« 1 London Naval Conference (1930), 198 Long, Breckinridge, 157,283« 1 "Long Telegram” (Kennan), 23 Louis XV (king of France), 22 Luce, Henry, 157 Lukashenko, Alexander, 115,116,150 315 Lute, Douglas, 60-61 Ma, Jack, 90 Macron, Emmanuel, 42,80,234 Madison, James, 240 Maduro, Nicolas, 42-43 Malik, Charles, 54 Manchuria, 184,187, 188,190,192-94,196, 198,200 Manchurian Incident (1931),
190,192, 193-94,198 Mantetsu (South Manchuria Railway Com pany), 192-93,203 Mao Zedong, 107 Maria Theresa (Austrian archduchess), 22 marketization, 85-86,132,269«6 Markey, Ed, 259»39 McCain, John, 5,237 McFaul, Michael, 12,103 McMaster, H. R., 12, 34-35,252«3,254«20 Merriam, Charles, 158-60 Mexian-American War, 127 Mexico, 50 Microsoft Exchange Server compromise, 31-32 Middle East Camp David Accords, 16 migration, 51-52 Milanovic, Branko, 135 milieu goals, 3-4 Mill, John Stuart, 131 Miloševič, Slobodan, 139 Minsk II Protocol (2015), 223-24,226 Mizoguchi, Toshiyuki, 197-98 Mnuchin, Steven, 94 Modi, Narendra, 233 Moldova, 31,34 Monroe Doctrine, 183 Montenegro, 31 Moore, Barrington, Jr., 100-101 Morrison, Scott, 111 Mortimer, Edward, 134 Mosaddegh, Mohammad, 129 Mozambique, 37 Mueller, John, 52 Mueller Report (2019), 30 Müller, Jan-Werner, 238 multilateralism, 47,55-57,214-15 challenges to, 65-68 See also international order; plurilateralism; World Trade Organization
316 Munich Agreement, 178 Mussolini, Benito, 6,154,158,161-62, 163-64,167 See also Italian Fascism mutual assured destruction, 219 Myanmar, 36 NAFTA, 145 Nathan, Andrew, 106-7 nationalism China, 98-100,108, 113-14 Enlightenment and, 273n52 interwar Japan, 197 Italian Fascism and, 163-66,170 populism and, 95-96 Russia, 96-98 Trump and, 113,144,145 types of, 95, 99,272n39 See also white nationalism NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Chinese cyber warfare and, 31-32 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 35 Cold War and, 55 Eastern European dependence on, 2 expansion of, 137,138-40,208,227-28, 297и24 free-riding and, 79 new cold war and, 10, 60-61 Partnership for Peace, 138-39 post-Cold War era and, 56 Russian observer status, 124 strategies for cold peace and, 227, 297»24 summit (2021), 10 Swedish/Finnish membership, 40,80, 140, 217 threats to Russia and China, 5 Trump administration and, 61,146 Ukraine invasion and, 40,45, 60, 80,217, 225 Ukraine membership possibility, 140, 223,228 warm peace and, 16 Navalny, Aleksei A., 105,169,217 Nazi Germany appeasement and, 75,178,179-80, 288я81 Italian Fascist alliance with, 171,173, 179,180,181 Japanese alliance with, 181 lack of current parallels, 3, 6 US rejection of, 160,161 Index US tolerance of, 177-79,180,288nn75, 77-78 Nazi-Soviet Pact (1939), 255n37 Nebenzia, Vassily, 259«36 Nemtsov, Boris, 104,169 Neutrality Acts (1939) (United States), 173 new cold war alternative terms for, 12-13,14 Biden disavowal of, 46,217 characteristics of, 26,27-40 China/Russia comparative threats, 42, 228,298и26 Chinese perspectives on, 29,44-45,46,
79,217 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 35-36, 46, 64, 117, 208,236-37 Cold War compared, 3,45-51, 64 conflict spirals and, 139,150-51, 266nl2 dangers of, 293и4 decline of hegemonic cooperation, 68, 69-70 depth of, 13-14 environmental resilience and, 7 European Union perspectives, 40-42, 261«57 historical analogues for, 6 human rights and, 7,46 ideological divide and, 6,49, 57-59, 64, 68,81-82 international disorder and, 51-52, 263»84 interwar period compared, 6,155-56, 180-81, 183,186,190 invocations of, 2,11-12,13,34-35, 38, 40,141-42,252n3 legitimacy and, 150 limits on, 3 middle powers and, 49-50, 79-80 multidimensional nature of, 45,47, 64 NATO and, 10, 60-61 peacekeeping and, 59-60 plurilateralism and, 56-61 Russian perspectives, 29,42-44 stakes of, 2,68,206-7,266nl2 structured nature of, 4-5 Thucydides Trap and, 4,124-25 Trump as anomaly in, 5-6 US-Chinese bipolarity in, 71-74,267nl4 US-Chinese/Russian rivalry and, 52-54, 59-60, 111 See also liberal democratic distrust of non liberal states
Index New Deal, 155,158-59,172,284ո5 New START, 227,232 Nicaragua, 129,130 Nicolson, Harold, 19 Nielsen, Kirstjen, 30-31 Nolte, Ernst, 181, 269n2 non-stace actors, 51,52 nonsubversion pact proposal, 4, 7 Nord Stream 2,41,80, 93,108 North Atlantic Treaty Organization. See NATO North Korea Chinese-Russian alignment and, 36 cyber warfare and, 233 Huawei and, 89 nuclear program, 50,53-54, 60,145,146, 186 sanctions on, 53-54 Trump and, 145-46 Norway, 149-50 nuclear weapons Cold War arms race and, 73 deterrence and, 24,139,141,156,180, 203,206 Iranian program, 28,43,146 North Korean program, 50, 53-54, 60, 145,146,186 Trump administration and, 12 See also arms control; arms races Nye, Joseph, 73,235 Obama, Barack, and administration, 28, 43, 141,234 O’Hanlon, Michael, 73,266n 12,297w24 oligarchy authoritarianism and, 103,104 corporatism and, 87, 93-94 Russian foreign policy and, 116 US domestic politics and, 94 Olympic Games cyber operation, 28 On War (Clausewitz), 76 Open Door controversies (China), 183,184, 185, 187,188,200,202,29Խ58 Orbán, Viktor, 33,143 Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 135 “Organization of European States” pro posal (Doyle), 138, 247, 281n45, 303-4n2 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 226 Ostrom, Elinor, 67 317 Page, Benjamin, 94 Pakistan Kärgil conflict, 16-17 Palmerston, Viscount (Henry John Temple), 18, 254n23 Paris Agreement, 221 Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyber space (2018), 234 Paris Peace Conference, 158,170,184-85, 187 Paxton, Robert, 163,286n37 peace defined, 14 states of, 15, 16 Peace
Preservation Law (1925) (Japan), 191 peacekeeping Cold War and, 54-55,219 new cold war and, 59-60 post-Cold War era, 56 Pearl Harbor attack, 203 Pei, Minxin, 72 Pelosi, Nancy, 232 Perkins, Dexter, 289nll Peronism, 95-96 “Perpetual Peace” (Kant), 106 Peters, Gary, 259n39 Petraeus, David, 116,239 Philippines, 143-44 Phillips, William, 179, 288n80 Platt Amendment, 129 Pledge of Allegiance, 95 pluralism, 85 plurilateralism, 56-61 poison frog strategy, 231-32,298n32 Poland, 144 Polanyi, Karl, 85,86,132,134 political polarization dangers of, 240-41 digital technology and, 103 economic inequalities and, 82, 240 political intervention and, 29,44 populism and, 144,148-49,151 social media and, 144 Politkovskaya, Anna, 169 Pompeo, Michael, 44,49 populism Brazil, 116 economic inequalities and, 7,144,148 imperialism/colonialism and, 102 Italian Fascism and, 166,180 liberal foreign policy and, 118 nationalism and, 95-96, 98
318 populism (continued) political polarization and, 144,148-49, 151 Russian opposition to, 180-81 Trump administration and, 123-24,145 See also Trump, Donald, and administra tion Portugal, 149 post-Cold War era international order, 124 multilateralism, 55-56 NATO during, 56 "Organization of European States” pro posal, 138,247,28Խ45,303-4«2 peacekeeping, 56 Russian economic collapse, 96 as unipolar hegemonic system, 2,69-70 US foreign policy, 136-37,281«42 Western warm peace during, 16 Powell, Colin, 137 Pragmatic Revolt in Politics, The (Elliott), 284nll Pragmatic Sanction of 1713,254«34 Prigozhin, Yevgeny, 37 Primo de Rivera, Miguel, 158 Prison Notebooks (Gramsci), 162 private property, 120, 173 propaganda, 97,103, 105 proxy wars balance-of-power systems and, 18 Cold War and, 7,24,26, 40,253«14, 260-6Խ55,264« 1 definitions of cold wars and, 14 Syrian civil war as, 45,262n69 Ukraine invasion as, 40,45, 60 public health, 51, 60, 96-97 See also COVID-19 pandemic Pussy Riot, 105 Putin, Vladimir approval ratings, 97 authoritarianism and, 103-4,139,154 color revolutions and, 125 corporatism and, 88 cyber warfare and, 150, 234-35,300n47 on future scenarios, 216-17 great power prestige and, 98,139 human rights and, 57 Italian Fascism analogies and, 165 kleptocracy and, 104 loss/recovery of empire and, 96,140 Mussolini and, 154 nationalism and, 96 Index on NATO expansion, 139-40,227-28 rise to power, 169,28Խ47 Russian political intervention and, 21, 29-30,31 Trump and, 6, 50,144,147 US political intervention accusations and, 29 wealth of, 274«65 See also Russia; Ukraine invasion
Quebec Case (Canada), 296«8 Quigley, Harold, 201 racism economic inequalities and, 246 in liberal, capitalist democracies, 121 US interwar relations with Japan and, 182,183,184-85,199, 288n2 US policy toward Nazi Germany and, 178, 288n78 white nationalism, 7,95,145,148, 241 Raimondo, Gina, 39 ransomware attacks, 27-28,31,32, 150, 216,235 Rawls, John, 122 Reagan, Ronald, 130,132 Reeves, Richard, 242 refugee crises, 52, 134,144 Reinsch, Paül, 292ո62 "Responsibility to Protect” doctrine, 58-59 REvil, 27, 28,31 Roman Empire, 165,170,179 Roosevelt, Eleanor, 54 Roosevelt, Franklin D. hot war and, 22 on isolationism, 213 Italian Fascism and, 158,160,171, 172-73,284n5 "Quarantine Speech,” 180 Roosevelt, Theodore, 292«62 Root, Elihu, 292n62 Rosneft, 36 Rothermere, Lord (Harold Sidney Harmsworth), 178 Rubio, Marco, 143,259n39 Rudd, Kevin, 35,252«2 ruscism, 97-98 Russia assassinations by, 31,33,34,41, 104, 169 authoritarianism in, 103-6,139, 154, 169 Chechnya and, 46,169,217 comparative threat of, 42,228, 298n26
319 Index corporatism in, 86-88 crony capitalism, 167 deaths of despair, 96-97 disinformation in, 97,103,105 domestic security issues, 108, 275n83, 277»108 on future scenarios, 216-17 GDP of, 266nn9-10 global cyber warfare treaties and, 53 great power prestige and, 98,139 GRU Unit 29155,31 human rights violations, 41,46, 57, 118 hybrid warfare, 31 hyper-weapons, 45 International Investment Bank and, 33 Italian Fascism compared, 180-81,198 kleptocracy in, 2,104 military capacity of, 45,48, 64, 73,180, 224 multilateralism and, 47 nationalism, 96-98 NATO Partnership for Peace and, 138-39 natural gas exports, 41,80,93,268n38 perspectives on new cold war, 29,42-44 ransomware attacks by, 27-28, 31,150, 216,235 terrorism in, 275n83 US political intervention accusations, 29 See also corporatist, nationalist autoc racies; new cold war; Russian foreign policy Russian Civil War, 127-28,184,279n20 Russian foreign policy, 114-17 African countries and, 36-37 alignment with China, 35-36,46, 64,117, 208,236-37 authoritarianism and, 139 corruption and, 116-17 Crimea annexation, 7,83, 98,222-23, 225-26 Georgia and, 5,139 human rights and, 111, 116 Italian Fascist foreign policy compared, 180-81 loss/recovery of empire and, 83,96,102, 140 North Korea sanctions and, 54 opposition to populism and, 180-81 political intervention and, 21,28-31, 43, 51,216,235,236,301n56 state cyber espionage, 27,28,98,150,227 Ukraine crisis (2013-14) and, 97,282n52 See also authoritarian defensiveness; Ukraine invasion Russo-Japanese War (1895), 194 sabotage, 28,32,43, 98,150,227,235 Saito, Hirosi, 291n58 Salman,
Mohammed bin, 225,278«14 Saudi Arabia human rights violations, 225,278nl4 Iranian relations with, 16,225 Ukraine invasion and, 225 Schlesinger, Arthur, 130 Schmitt, Carl, 99 Schmitter, Philippe, 84-85 Scholz, Olaf, 41 Schumer, Charles, 143 Scottish independence, 30 SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organiza tion), 55 self-determination, 223, 229, 296»8 Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, 229,266nl2 Serbia, 139 Seven Years’ War, 22 Shanghai Communiqué, 49,229 Shepard, Walter J., 159 Shibusawa Eiichi, 187 Shidehara Kijuro, 187,189 Simonovič, Ivan, 226 “Sinatra doctrine,” 55 Snowden, Edward, 27 Snyder, Jack, 75,198 Snyder, Timothy, 97-98 social credit programs, 108,275«82 social democracy, 86 See ako social welfare liberalism social media, 144,239,301n56 Social Origins ofDictatorship and Democracy (Moore), 100-101 social welfare liberalism, 119,120,130 Socialism Italian Fascist opposition to, 83,155,161, 164,166,167,168,181,269n3 US liberal interwar mistrust of, 173,178 soft power, 73 SolarWinds attack (2020), 27, 31,150 Soleimani, Qasem, 146 Solomon Islands, 37-38 Somalia, 130 South Africa, 14, 16 South China Sea, Chinese policy toward authoritarian defensiveness or hyperna tionalism and, 108-9
320 South China Sea, Chinese policy toward (continued) as buffer zone, 5 future scenarios and, 216 hegemonic transition and, 79 imperialism/colonialism and, 154 interwar Japan expansionism compared, 154 political intervention and, 42 state cyber espionage and, 27 strategies for cold peace and, 7,228-29, 232 US policy and, 44,48-49,232 South Korea, 146 South Manchuria Railway Company. See Mantetsu Soviet collapse, 1 African countries and, 37 authoritarianism and, 102 end of Cold War and, 55 international cooperation challenges and, 74 nationalism and, 96 Ukraine invasion and, 96,115 unipolar hegemonic system and, 69 Soviet Union Afghan War, 40,218,26Խ55 authoritarianism, 158 invasion of Czechoslovakia, 4 Japanese interwar relations with, 189 US interwar distrust of, 189 See also Cold War; Soviet collapse Spain, 149 Spanish-American War, 129 Spencer, Henry R., 158 Spencer, Richard, 148 “Stab in the Back Speech” (Roosevelt), 160 Stalin, Joseph, 158 state cyber espionage, 27,28,31-33, 98,150, 227,258n30 state cyber sabotage, 28,32,43, 98,150, 227,235 state-owned enterprises (SOEs), 87,89,94, 125,271-72n36 See also corporatism Steiner, Zara, 290»39 Stewart, William Kilborne, 158 Stimson, Henry, 201,292n63 Stimson Doctrine, 190 Straight, Willard, 292n62 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaties (SALT I and II), 218-19 Index structural realism, 119,142 Stuxnet attack on Iran (2009), 28,43,233 Sudan, 110-11 Sullivan, John J., 37 Summit for Democracy (2021), 36 superpowers. See international order surveillance state, 34,102-3,107 SVR-Nobeliutn, 31 Sweden, 40,80,140, 149-50,217 Swift,
Jonathan, 76-77,267n27 Switzerland, 121 Syrian civil war human rights and, 111, 116 humanitarian assistance negotiations, 237-38 humanitarian disaster and, 52 peacekeeping and, 59 as proxy war, 45,262n69 refugee crisis and, 52,144 Russian attacks on medical facilities, 34, 259n36 Russian intervention in, 83,217,275и83 Russian military capacity and, 64, 98 terrorism and, 275n83 US retreat, 146 Taisho (emperor ofJapan), 191 Taiwan Chinese policy toward, 36,44,48-49,230, 298и28 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 35 Cold War and, 229 democratic self-determination and, 230 poison frog strategy, 231-32,298w32 strategies for cold peace and, 229-33, 298n28,30 US policy toward, 36,39, 44, 229-31, 232 Taiwan Relations Act (1979) (United States), 229-30 Tallinn Manuals, 233-34 Tanzania, 50 technology industries middle powers and, 80 US-Chinese relations and, 33-34,39, 50, 108, 111, 244,258»30 Tencent, 91,108 terminology, 12-13,14, IS terrorism, 51,52,275n83 Thatcher, Margaret, 132 “Third World,” 50, 127,128-30 Thucydides Trap, 4, 78,124-25,268n29
Index Tiananmen Square protests (1989), 1,44, 108,113,186 tianxia, 99 Tibet, 49, 99 TikTok, 39, 92,143 Tinkov, Oleg Y., 88 Titan Rain operation (2005), 31 Tomz, Michael, 122 totalitarianism, 162,164 transnational strategy, 280n31 TransPacific Partnership, 146 treaties cold peace and, 16 Treaty of Versailles, 180 Treinin, Dmitri, 252n2 triangulation, 232-33,236 Trujillo, Rafael, 130 Trump, Donald, and administration as anomaly in new cold war, 5-6 arms control and, 146 authoritarianism and, 49,82, 83, 144-45 Capitol putsch, 4, 36, 147,148,210,217, 246 climate change and, 221 crony capitalism and, 94 cyber warfare by, 43 cyberweapons and, 257n22 democratic coalition proposals by, 49 economic inequalities and, 135,144, 242 European Union and, 46 human rights and, 57 middle powers and, 50 National Security Strategy, 12, 17-18, 20, 253-54ип20,25 nationalism and, 113,144,145 NATO and, 61,146 new cold war invocations by, 12, 34-35, 141-42,252n3 North Korea and, 145-46 Russian political intervention and, 29-31, 51 threats to democracy and, 123-24 US-Chinese relations and, 12, 33,34-35, 141-42,215 US-Russian relations and, 6,51 white nationalism and, 7, 145,241 Tsikhanouskaya, Sviatlana, 116 Tucker, Robert, 255«35 Tufekci, Zeynep, 103 Uighurs. See Chinese oppression of Uighurs Ukraine 321 Crimea annexation, 7, 83,98, 222-23, 225-26 crisis (2013-14), 97, 181,222,253«17, 282«52 Donbas, 45,223-24,226 European Union membership, 140, 282n52 NATO membership possibility, 140,223, 228 as Russian buffer zone, 5 Russian state cyber sabotage against, 28, 29, 98,227 strategies for cold peace
and, 7, 222-28, 297nl8 See also Ukraine invasion (2022) Ukraine invasion (2022), 2,4 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 36,208, 236-37 corporatism and, 88, 93 future scenarios and, 216,217 great power prestige and,, 98, 139 international order and, 80,83 Kozyrev’s foreign policy vision and, 114 middle powers and, 49-50, 79-80 motivations for, 115 nationalism and, 98 NATO and, 40,45, 60,80,217,225 NATO expansion as motive for, 138-40 as proxy war, 40,45, 60 Russian-African relations and, 37 Russian authoritarianism and, 103-4 Russian military capacity and, 64,224 Russian natural gas exports and, 41,80,93 sanctions on Russia and, 4,80,225,227 Soviet collapse and, 96,115 strategies for cold peace and, 224-25 Trump and, 147 Ullman, Richard, 247-48 UN Security Council authoritarian foreign policy and, 116 bypassing of, 80, 139 Chinese seat on, 214-15,229 Cold War and, 54-55 Crimea annexation and, 225 human rights and, 116 increasing tensions in, 34,59-60 international order and, 124,215 multilateral compromise and, 237-38, 30Խ52 North Korean nuclear program and, 53-54, 60 Taiwan and, 229
322 unipolar hegemonie systems, 2, 67, 68, 69-70 United Nations Charter, 53,146,222, 237 Chinese policy toward, 49 Crimea annexation and, 225-26 cyber warfare and, 113,299n41 democratic coalition proposals and, 237 human rights and, 57,58-59 limited-target arms control strategies and, 235 new cold war rivalry in, 59-60 Ukraine invasion and, 49-50, 80 See also peacekeeping; UN Security Council United Russia Party, 87 United States Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) (2021), 39 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), 54 urbanization, 51 Urbinati, Nadia, 95-96 US-Chinese relations Alaska Summit, 36,46 Chinese cyber warfare and, 32, 92-93, 234 COVID-19 pandemic and, 38 technology industries and, 33-34,39,50, 108, 111, 244,258»30 trade agreement (2020), 258n30 trade deficit, 33 trade war, 82, 92,142-43,148 See also new cold war US domestic politics admiration of Italian Fascism, 155, 157-59,174 Chinese autocractic influence and, 82 climate change and, 221 Cold War/new cold war compared and, 50-51 corporatism and, 93-94 immigration policy, 171-72,244,288n2 infrastructure needs, 149 necessary changes, 7 New Deal, 155,158-59,172,284n5 political polarization, 82,148-49,240-41 racism and, 121,178,182,183,246, 288n2 reform proposals, 238-45 Russian political intervention in, 21, 28-31,43,51,216,235,236 state direction of economy, 82 Index threats to democracy, 123-24,238-39, 240-41 Trump’s authoritarianism and, 49, 82, 83, 144-45 white nationalism and, 7,95,145,148, 241 See also economic inequalities US foreign policy accommodation to authoritarian coun tries, 149-50 African
countries and, 37 alignment with European Union, 46 alliances and, 125,146 Committee on the Present Danger and, 141-42 current isolationism, 161 cyber warfare use, 27,28,43,233 defensive motivations of, 3 imperialism/colonialism and, 127,129, 137 interwar anti-Semitism and, 155,177-78, 180,283nl, 288nn75, 77 interwar isolationism, 158,174,175-76, 177,180,185,186,289»11 Israel and, 146-47 Lodge Corollary, 183,288w4 military intervention and, 24, 50, 80, 127, 138,184,279»20 Nazi Germany and, 160,161,177-79, 180,288nn75,77-78 NSC 68 (1950), 23 political intervention and, 29 post-Cold War era, 136-37,281и42 relations with Fascist Italy, 155,171-76 Taiwan and, 36,39,44,229-31,232 threats to Russia and China, 5,140-41 Trump National Security Strategy, 12, 17-18,20,253-54nn20, 25 Trumpian unilateralism, 145,146 US-Russian Geneva Summit (2021), 234-35,300n47 See also liberal foreign policy; US interwar relations with Japan US interwar relations with Japan, 182-90 China-centric vs. Japan-centric approaches, 185-86,190, 201,292n62 cooperation, 182,184,186-89,199-200, 203,289»14 garrison state theory and, 201,291и59 Japanese imperialism/colonialism and, 200,201,29Խ58 Japanese oil dependence and, 195
323 Index League of Nations sanctions and, 201, 292n63 Lodge Corollary and, 183,288n4 new cold war with China compared, 6, 155-56, 183,186,190, 198-99,202-3, 202 Open Door controversies and, 182-83, 184,185,187,188, 200,202, 291n58 racism and, 182,183,184-85,199,288n2 Taisho democratization and, 184,190, 191 US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, 145 USAID cyberattack, 31 Venezuela, 42-43,52,59 Vershbow, Alexander, 104 Victor Emmanuel (king of Italy), 168, 286я37 Vienna Declaration, 55-56 Vietnam War, 4,40,129,260-6 ln55 Voltaire, 273я52 Waltz, Kenneth, 75 Wang Yi, 35,46,48,217,222 war defined, 14 liberal imprudence and, 126-27 states of, 14,15,16 warm peace, 15,16 Warren, Elizabeth, 259я39 Warsaw Pact, 55 See also Cold War Washington Conference treaties (1921-22), 182,186-90,289я14 Washington consensus, 132 Weeks, Jessica, 106,122 Weinstein, Kenneth, 12 white nationalism, 7,95, 145,148,241 Whitehouse, Sheldon, 116,239 WikiLeaks, 43 Wilson, Woodrow, 183,184-85,187 Winnti APT Group, 27 Winters, Jeffrey, 94 “wolfwarrior” diplomacy (China), 48, 113-14,151,214,215,294nll Wolfowitz, Paul, 136-37 Women’s March (2017) (United States), 236 World Bank, 109,131 World Health Organization (WHO), 59 World Trade Organization (WTO), 91,124, 134,142,148,190,214-15,282я55 World War I chain-ganging and, 75 corporatism and, 86 isolationism and, 176 Italian Fascism and, 161,163,164,170,173 Japan and, 190 postwar international order, 124 skepticism toward liberal capitalism and, 158 See also Paris Peace Conference World War II cooperation across ideological divides during, 22, 25,255я37 imposition
of democracy and, 251я6 legitimacy as basis of, 22 Pearl Harbor attack, 203 postwar international order, 124 Writings on the Wall, The: Who Shall Govern Next (Child), 159 “X Article” (Kennan), 23 Xi Jinping and regime Alaska Summit, 36,46 authoritarian defensiveness and, 99, 109 authoritarianism and, 107,151 Chinese-Russian alignment and, 208 corporatism and, 88, 90,270я21 COVID-19 pandemic and, 150 cyber warfare and, 234 on future scenarios, 215-16,294ЯІЗ hegemonic transition and, 78 ideological divides and, 99 on international order, 109,208,215, 294я13 on new cold war, 46, 78 on Taiwan, 36,230,298я28 Trump administration and, 12 See also China Xinjiang. See Chinese oppression of Uighurs Yanukovych, Viktor, 115 Ye Qing, 90 Yeltsin, Boris, 96, 97,104,169,281я47 Yuan Shikai, 184 Yukos, 169 Zakaria, Fareed, 225 Zegart, Amy, 65 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 139-40 Zelikow, Philip, 230-31 Zhao Lijian, 10,38,294я11 Zona Prava, 105 Zuckerberg, Mark, 143 J Bayerische I Staatsbibliothek ’ München |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Doyle, Michael W. 1948- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)134278062 |
| author_facet | Doyle, Michael W. 1948- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Doyle, Michael W. 1948- |
| author_variant | m w d mw mwd |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV048977897 |
| classification_rvk | MK 2100 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1385302260 (DE-599)BVBBV048977897 |
| dewey-full | 327.7300904 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 327 - International relations |
| dewey-raw | 327.7300904 |
| dewey-search | 327.7300904 |
| dewey-sort | 3327.7300904 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Politologie |
| edition | First edition |
| era | Geschichte 1920-1939 gnd Geschichte 2000- gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1920-1939 Geschichte 2000- |
| format | Book |
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Norton & Company</subfield><subfield code="c">[2023]</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">323 Seiten</subfield><subfield code="c">23 cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">"By 1990, the first Cold War was ending. The Berlin Wall had fallen and the Warsaw Pact was crumbling; following Russia's lead, cries for democracy were being embraced by a young Chinese populace. The post-Cold War years were a time of immense hope and possibility. They heralded an opportunity for creative cooperation among nations, an end to ideological strife, perhaps even the beginning of a stable international order of liberal peace. But the days of optimism are over. As renowned international relations expert Michael Doyle makes hauntingly clear, we now face the devastating specter of a new Cold War, this time orbiting the trilateral axes of Russia, the United States, and China, and exacerbated by new weapons of cyber warfare and more insidious forms of propaganda. Such a conflict at this phase in our global history would have catastrophic repercussions, Doyle argues, stymieing global collaboration efforts that are key to reversing climate change, preventing the next pandemic, and securing nuclear nonproliferation. The recent, devastating invasion of Ukraine is both an example and an augur of the costs that lay in wait. However, there is hope. Putin is not Stalin, Xi is not Mao, and no autocrat is a modern Hitler. 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| id | DE-604.BV048977897 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T22:04:30Z |
| indexdate | 2025-01-02T21:13:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781631496066 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034241415 |
| oclc_num | 1385302260 |
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| owner_facet | DE-188 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-12 |
| physical | 323 Seiten 23 cm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20230929 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Liveright Publishing Corporation, a Division of W.W. Norton & Company |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Doyle, Michael W. 1948- Verfasser (DE-588)134278062 aut Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War Michael Doyle First edition New York Liveright Publishing Corporation, a Division of W.W. Norton & Company [2023] 323 Seiten 23 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier "By 1990, the first Cold War was ending. The Berlin Wall had fallen and the Warsaw Pact was crumbling; following Russia's lead, cries for democracy were being embraced by a young Chinese populace. The post-Cold War years were a time of immense hope and possibility. They heralded an opportunity for creative cooperation among nations, an end to ideological strife, perhaps even the beginning of a stable international order of liberal peace. But the days of optimism are over. As renowned international relations expert Michael Doyle makes hauntingly clear, we now face the devastating specter of a new Cold War, this time orbiting the trilateral axes of Russia, the United States, and China, and exacerbated by new weapons of cyber warfare and more insidious forms of propaganda. Such a conflict at this phase in our global history would have catastrophic repercussions, Doyle argues, stymieing global collaboration efforts that are key to reversing climate change, preventing the next pandemic, and securing nuclear nonproliferation. The recent, devastating invasion of Ukraine is both an example and an augur of the costs that lay in wait. However, there is hope. Putin is not Stalin, Xi is not Mao, and no autocrat is a modern Hitler. There is also an unprecedented level of shared global interest in prosperity and protecting the planet from environmental disaster. While it is unlikely that the United States, Russia, and China will ever establish a "warm peace," there are significant, reasonable compromises between nations that can lead to a détente. While the future remains very much in doubt, the elegant set of accords and non-subversion pacts Doyle proposes in this book may very well save the world."--Provided by publisher Geschichte 1920-1939 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 2000- gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Diplomatische Beziehungen (DE-588)4138523-8 gnd rswk-swf Japan (DE-588)4028495-5 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf Italien (DE-588)4027833-5 gnd rswk-swf China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf World politics / 21st century United States / Foreign relations / China China / Foreign relations / United States United States / Foreign relations / Russia (Federation) Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / United States Diplomatic relations World politics China Russia (Federation) United States 2000-2099 USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g China (DE-588)4009937-4 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Diplomatische Beziehungen (DE-588)4138523-8 s Geschichte 2000- z DE-604 Italien (DE-588)4027833-5 g Japan (DE-588)4028495-5 g Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Geschichte 1920-1939 z Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 9781631496073 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034241415&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034241415&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Doyle, Michael W. 1948- Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Diplomatische Beziehungen (DE-588)4138523-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4138523-8 (DE-588)4028495-5 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4027833-5 (DE-588)4009937-4 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War |
| title_auth | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War |
| title_exact_search | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War |
| title_full | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War Michael Doyle |
| title_fullStr | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War Michael Doyle |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cold peace avoiding the new Cold War Michael Doyle |
| title_short | Cold peace |
| title_sort | cold peace avoiding the new cold war |
| title_sub | avoiding the new Cold War |
| topic | Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Diplomatische Beziehungen (DE-588)4138523-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Internationale Politik Diplomatische Beziehungen Japan USA Italien China Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034241415&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034241415&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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