Russian military forecasting and analysis: the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning
The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country's ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses this forecasting to...
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| Online-Zugang: | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR-A198-4 Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country's ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses this forecasting to answer (1) what is the likelihood and character of future war and (2) what is the correlation of military potential between Russia and its potential adversaries? In this report, the authors draw on an established framework to examine key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the answers to these questions. The Russian military science and academic research that the authors of this report reviewed found that the correlation of military potential (state power)-a broad measure that includes political, economic, scientific-technical, and conventional armed forces indicators-is and will be weighted in favor of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the West and the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region through 2040. The factors that could improve Russia's competitive position are the inclusion of China in the correlation of military potential and the possible reduced ability of the United States to manage the international system in ways that favor its interests. Russia's current military assessments and forecasts have not found indications of intentions of the United States or China to launch a large-scale war against Russia. The conditions under which Russia might take preemptive military action that risks war with an opponent with superior military potential remain an open question |
| Beschreibung: | xix, 160 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9781977406743 |
| DOI: | 10.7249/RR-A198-4 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: The VPO in Russian Military Planning -- Chapter Three: Russian Conceptions, Assessments, and Forecasts of State Power and Military Potential -- Chapter Four: Assessing and Forecasting Critical Technologies -- Chapter Five: Russian Characterizations of the VPO and Military Threats -- Chapter Six: Conclusion -- Appendix A: Indicators of Information Confrontation -- Appendix B: VPO Assessment and Forecast Methodology -- Appendix C: The Russian Process for Determining Critical Technologies | |
| 520 | 3 | |a The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country's ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses this forecasting to answer (1) what is the likelihood and character of future war and (2) what is the correlation of military potential between Russia and its potential adversaries? In this report, the authors draw on an established framework to examine key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the answers to these questions. The Russian military science and academic research that the authors of this report reviewed found that the correlation of military potential (state power)-a broad measure that includes political, economic, scientific-technical, and conventional armed forces indicators-is and will be weighted in favor of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the West and the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region through 2040. The factors that could improve Russia's competitive position are the inclusion of China in the correlation of military potential and the possible reduced ability of the United States to manage the international system in ways that favor its interests. Russia's current military assessments and forecasts have not found indications of intentions of the United States or China to launch a large-scale war against Russia. The conditions under which Russia might take preemptive military action that risks war with an opponent with superior military potential remain an open question | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Tables Possible Global Scenarios to 2025 and 2040........................... 23 NTsUO Situational Assessment and Forecast Information.... 27 Main Concepts Used to Assess and Forecast State Power and Military Potential................................................................... 47 3.2. Indicators Used to Assess State Power or Potential...................49 3.3. Selected Categories and Indicators of Military Potential.........51 3.4. Common Scenarios Used in Assessments and Russian Forecasts of State Power, Military Potential, and Military Threat............................................................................................. 52 3.5. Military Potential of Leading VPO Actors Under Different Scenarios........................................................................... 60 4.1. Primary Directions for Russian Military Technological Innovation as of 2015........................................................ 67 4.2. Robotics-Related Documents....................................................... 69 4.3. Robotics-Related Institutions....................................................... 70 4.4. Science, Technology, and Innovation Indicators, 2017............... 72 4.5. Selected Results from Russia 2030: Science and Technology Forecast...............................................................................74 4.6. Selected U.S. Military-Technological Trends with Implications for Strategic Stability................................. 77 4.7. List of Military Technologies by Level of Competence............. 79 5.1. Gerasimov Descriptions of Character of
Warfare and Military Threats, 2016—2019......................................... 102 5.2. Local and Regional Sources of Military Dangers and Threats to Russia to 2045.............................................. 105 B.l. VPO External Data Collection................................................ 121 B.2. Selected VPO Input Information............................................. 124 2.1. 2.2. 3.1. ¡X
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Tables Possible Global Scenarios to 2025 and 2040. 23 NTsUO Situational Assessment and Forecast Information. 27 Main Concepts Used to Assess and Forecast State Power and Military Potential. 47 3.2. Indicators Used to Assess State Power or Potential.49 3.3. Selected Categories and Indicators of Military Potential.51 3.4. Common Scenarios Used in Assessments and Russian Forecasts of State Power, Military Potential, and Military Threat. 52 3.5. Military Potential of Leading VPO Actors Under Different Scenarios. 60 4.1. Primary Directions for Russian Military Technological Innovation as of 2015. 67 4.2. Robotics-Related Documents. 69 4.3. Robotics-Related Institutions. 70 4.4. Science, Technology, and Innovation Indicators, 2017. 72 4.5. Selected Results from Russia 2030: Science and Technology Forecast.74 4.6. Selected U.S. Military-Technological Trends with Implications for Strategic Stability. 77 4.7. List of Military Technologies by Level of Competence. 79 5.1. Gerasimov Descriptions of Character of
Warfare and Military Threats, 2016—2019. 102 5.2. Local and Regional Sources of Military Dangers and Threats to Russia to 2045. 105 B.l. VPO External Data Collection. 121 B.2. Selected VPO Input Information. 124 2.1. 2.2. 3.1. ¡X
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| contents | Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: The VPO in Russian Military Planning -- Chapter Three: Russian Conceptions, Assessments, and Forecasts of State Power and Military Potential -- Chapter Four: Assessing and Forecasting Critical Technologies -- Chapter Five: Russian Characterizations of the VPO and Military Threats -- Chapter Six: Conclusion -- Appendix A: Indicators of Information Confrontation -- Appendix B: VPO Assessment and Forecast Methodology -- Appendix C: The Russian Process for Determining Critical Technologies |
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| publisher | RAND Corporation |
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| spelling | Reach, Clinton Bruce Verfasser (DE-588)1139393480 aut Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning Clint Reach [und fünf weitere] Santa Monica, CA RAND Corporation 2022 xix, 160 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: The VPO in Russian Military Planning -- Chapter Three: Russian Conceptions, Assessments, and Forecasts of State Power and Military Potential -- Chapter Four: Assessing and Forecasting Critical Technologies -- Chapter Five: Russian Characterizations of the VPO and Military Threats -- Chapter Six: Conclusion -- Appendix A: Indicators of Information Confrontation -- Appendix B: VPO Assessment and Forecast Methodology -- Appendix C: The Russian Process for Determining Critical Technologies The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country's ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses this forecasting to answer (1) what is the likelihood and character of future war and (2) what is the correlation of military potential between Russia and its potential adversaries? In this report, the authors draw on an established framework to examine key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the answers to these questions. The Russian military science and academic research that the authors of this report reviewed found that the correlation of military potential (state power)-a broad measure that includes political, economic, scientific-technical, and conventional armed forces indicators-is and will be weighted in favor of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the West and the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region through 2040. The factors that could improve Russia's competitive position are the inclusion of China in the correlation of military potential and the possible reduced ability of the United States to manage the international system in ways that favor its interests. Russia's current military assessments and forecasts have not found indications of intentions of the United States or China to launch a large-scale war against Russia. The conditions under which Russia might take preemptive military action that risks war with an opponent with superior military potential remain an open question Russland Ministerstvo Oborony (DE-588)5175291-8 gnd rswk-swf Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Military planning / Russia (Federation) Military art and science / Russia (Federation) Military art and science Military planning Russia (Federation) Russland Ministerstvo Oborony (DE-588)5175291-8 b Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 International Security and Defense Policy Center (DE-588)1209307138 isb Civilian-Based Resistance in the Baltic States Historical Precedents and Current Capabilities RAND/RR-A198-3 Russian Military Forecasting Translation Volume 1999-2018 RAND/RR-A198-5 https://doi.org/10.7249/RR-A198-4 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033790474&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033790474&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Reach, Clinton Bruce Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: The VPO in Russian Military Planning -- Chapter Three: Russian Conceptions, Assessments, and Forecasts of State Power and Military Potential -- Chapter Four: Assessing and Forecasting Critical Technologies -- Chapter Five: Russian Characterizations of the VPO and Military Threats -- Chapter Six: Conclusion -- Appendix A: Indicators of Information Confrontation -- Appendix B: VPO Assessment and Forecast Methodology -- Appendix C: The Russian Process for Determining Critical Technologies Russland Ministerstvo Oborony (DE-588)5175291-8 gnd Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5175291-8 (DE-588)4169951-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning |
| title_auth | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning |
| title_exact_search | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning |
| title_full | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning Clint Reach [und fünf weitere] |
| title_fullStr | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning Clint Reach [und fünf weitere] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russian military forecasting and analysis the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning Clint Reach [und fünf weitere] |
| title_short | Russian military forecasting and analysis |
| title_sort | russian military forecasting and analysis the military political situation and military potential in strategic planning |
| title_sub | the military-political situation and military potential in strategic planning |
| topic | Russland Ministerstvo Oborony (DE-588)5175291-8 gnd Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Russland Ministerstvo Oborony Militärische Planung Prognose |
| url | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR-A198-4 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033790474&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033790474&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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