The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries:
This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2005
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 05/2 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (31 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451860218 9781451860214 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:29Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:38Z |
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| spelling | Danninger, Stephan Verfasser aut The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries Danninger, Stephan Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2005 1 Online-Ressource (31 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 05/2 This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect Online-Ausg Cangiano, M. Sonstige oth Kyobe, Annette Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/07227-9781451860214/07227-9781451860214/07227-9781451860214.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Danninger, Stephan The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries |
| title | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries |
| title_auth | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries |
| title_exact_search | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries |
| title_full | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries Danninger, Stephan |
| title_fullStr | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries Danninger, Stephan |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries Danninger, Stephan |
| title_short | The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries |
| title_sort | the political economy of revenue forecasting experience from low income countries |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/07227-9781451860214/07227-9781451860214/07227-9781451860214.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danningerstephan thepoliticaleconomyofrevenueforecastingexperiencefromlowincomecountries AT cangianom thepoliticaleconomyofrevenueforecastingexperiencefromlowincomecountries AT kyobeannette thepoliticaleconomyofrevenueforecastingexperiencefromlowincomecountries |