The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation:
This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bay...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 08/166 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, non-monetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (29 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451870248 9781451870244 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:25Z |
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| spelling | Stavrev, Emil Verfasser aut The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Stavrev, Emil Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2008 1 Online-Ressource (29 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 08/166 This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of money has its limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models, and it worsens forecasting accuracy of partial equilibrium models. Finally, non-monetary models dominate monetary models in an all-out horserace Online-Ausg Berger, Helge Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09407-9781451870244/09407-9781451870244/09407-9781451870244.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Stavrev, Emil The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation |
| title | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation |
| title_auth | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation |
| title_exact_search | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation |
| title_full | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Stavrev, Emil |
| title_fullStr | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Stavrev, Emil |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Stavrev, Emil |
| title_short | The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation |
| title_sort | the information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/09407-9781451870244/09407-9781451870244/09407-9781451870244.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stavrevemil theinformationcontentofmoneyinforecastingeuroareainflation AT bergerhelge theinformationcontentofmoneyinforecastingeuroareainflation |