Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises
In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when spreads ar...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2003
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 03/122 |
| Online Access: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Summary: | In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when spreads are higher than 1,000 basis points-we find that countries experience reduced capital market access and high interest rates on their external debt for typically more than two quarters. We also find that lagged ratings and ratings changes, including negative outlooks and credit watches, anticipate such debt crises |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (25 p) |
| ISBN: | 145185451X 9781451854510 |
Staff View
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:23Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:31Z |
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| spelling | Sy, Amadou N. R. Verfasser aut Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises Sy, Amadou N. R Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2003 1 Online-Ressource (25 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 03/122 In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when spreads are higher than 1,000 basis points-we find that countries experience reduced capital market access and high interest rates on their external debt for typically more than two quarters. We also find that lagged ratings and ratings changes, including negative outlooks and credit watches, anticipate such debt crises Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/05533-9781451854510/05533-9781451854510/05533-9781451854510.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Sy, Amadou N. R. Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises |
| title | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises |
| title_auth | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises |
| title_exact_search | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises |
| title_full | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises Sy, Amadou N. R |
| title_fullStr | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises Sy, Amadou N. R |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rating the Rating Agencies Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises Sy, Amadou N. R |
| title_short | Rating the Rating Agencies |
| title_sort | rating the rating agencies anticipating currency crises or debt crises |
| title_sub | Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/05533-9781451854510/05533-9781451854510/05533-9781451854510.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT syamadounr ratingtheratingagenciesanticipatingcurrencycrisesordebtcrises |