Can Miracles Lead to Crises?: The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises
Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset-pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself are c...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2007
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 07/223 |
| Online Access: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Summary: | Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset-pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself are consequences of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. The model features two sets of investors, domestic and foreign. Both sets of investors learn from noisy signals, which contain information relevant for asset returns and formulate expectations, or ""beliefs,"" about the state of productivity. We show that, if preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a sharp downward adjustment in investors'' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment and sensitivity to negative signals increase with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (34 p) |
| ISBN: | 1451867875 9781451867879 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:22Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:31Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| spelling | Boz, Emine Verfasser aut Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises Boz, Emine Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2007 1 Online-Ressource (34 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 07/223 Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset-pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself are consequences of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. The model features two sets of investors, domestic and foreign. Both sets of investors learn from noisy signals, which contain information relevant for asset returns and formulate expectations, or ""beliefs,"" about the state of productivity. We show that, if preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a sharp downward adjustment in investors'' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment and sensitivity to negative signals increase with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/08673-9781451867879/08673-9781451867879/08673-9781451867879.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Boz, Emine Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises |
| title | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises |
| title_auth | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises |
| title_exact_search | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises |
| title_full | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises Boz, Emine |
| title_fullStr | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises Boz, Emine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises Boz, Emine |
| title_short | Can Miracles Lead to Crises? |
| title_sort | can miracles lead to crises the role of optimism in emerging markets crises |
| title_sub | The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/08673-9781451867879/08673-9781451867879/08673-9781451867879.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bozemine canmiraclesleadtocrisestheroleofoptimisminemergingmarketscrises |