Post-Conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?
This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic perform...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2011
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| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 11/149 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors (""luck"") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) |
| ISBN: | 1455269476 9781455269471 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:21Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:29Z |
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| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | David, Antonio Verfasser aut Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? David, Antonio Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2011 1 Online-Ressource (33 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 11/149 This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors (""luck"") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification Online-Ausg Bastos, Fabiano Rodrigues Sonstige oth Mills, Marshall Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/11961-9781455269471/11961-9781455269471/11961-9781455269471.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | David, Antonio Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? |
| title | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? |
| title_auth | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? |
| title_exact_search | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? |
| title_full | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? David, Antonio |
| title_fullStr | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? David, Antonio |
| title_full_unstemmed | Post-Conflict Recovery Institutions, Aid, or Luck? David, Antonio |
| title_short | Post-Conflict Recovery |
| title_sort | post conflict recovery institutions aid or luck |
| title_sub | Institutions, Aid, or Luck? |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/11961-9781455269471/11961-9781455269471/11961-9781455269471.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidantonio postconflictrecoveryinstitutionsaidorluck AT bastosfabianorodrigues postconflictrecoveryinstitutionsaidorluck AT millsmarshall postconflictrecoveryinstitutionsaidorluck |