China's Demography and its Implications:
In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence a...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2013
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 13/82 |
| Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this not only holds up well empirically but may also be superior to the static dependency ratios typically employed in the literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework and find that China's demographics should have induced a negative current account in the 2000s and a positive one in the 2010s given the rising share of prime savers, only turning negative around 2045. The opposite is true for the United States and Western Europe. The observed divergence in current account outcomes from the simulated path appears to have been partly policy induced. Over the next couple of decades, individual countries' convergence toward the simulated savings pattern will be influenced by their past divergences and future policy choices. Other implications arising from China's demography, including the growth model, the pension system, the labor market, and the public finances are also briefly reviewed |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (27 p) |
| ISBN: | 1484363361 9781484363362 |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:15Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:22Z |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (27 p) |
| psigel | ZDB-1-IMF |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateSearch | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spelling | Lee, Il Houng Verfasser aut China's Demography and its Implications Lee, Il Houng Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2013 1 Online-Ressource (27 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/82 In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this not only holds up well empirically but may also be superior to the static dependency ratios typically employed in the literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework and find that China's demographics should have induced a negative current account in the 2000s and a positive one in the 2010s given the rising share of prime savers, only turning negative around 2045. The opposite is true for the United States and Western Europe. The observed divergence in current account outcomes from the simulated path appears to have been partly policy induced. Over the next couple of decades, individual countries' convergence toward the simulated savings pattern will be influenced by their past divergences and future policy choices. Other implications arising from China's demography, including the growth model, the pension system, the labor market, and the public finances are also briefly reviewed Online-Ausg Qingjun, Xu Sonstige oth Syed, Murtaza H. Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20396-9781484363362/20396-9781484363362/20396-9781484363362.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Lee, Il Houng China's Demography and its Implications |
| title | China's Demography and its Implications |
| title_auth | China's Demography and its Implications |
| title_exact_search | China's Demography and its Implications |
| title_exact_search_txtP | China's Demography and its Implications |
| title_full | China's Demography and its Implications Lee, Il Houng |
| title_fullStr | China's Demography and its Implications Lee, Il Houng |
| title_full_unstemmed | China's Demography and its Implications Lee, Il Houng |
| title_short | China's Demography and its Implications |
| title_sort | china s demography and its implications |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20396-9781484363362/20396-9781484363362/20396-9781484363362.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leeilhoung chinasdemographyanditsimplications AT qingjunxu chinasdemographyanditsimplications AT syedmurtazah chinasdemographyanditsimplications |