Bounded rationality: heuristics, judgment and public policy
"An accessible and self-contained treatment of the current state of thinking about rationality in economics and other social sciences"--
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Massachusetts ; London, England
The MIT Press
[2022]
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | "An accessible and self-contained treatment of the current state of thinking about rationality in economics and other social sciences"-- |
| Physical Description: | xii, 533 Seiten Diagramme 23 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780262543705 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a What is rationality and what is the evidence for it? -- The case for bounded rationality -- Behavioral models of heuristics-based choice -- Kahneman and Tversky's research program on heuristics and biases (HBP) -- The fast and frugal heuristics research program (FFP) -- Philosophical foundations -- Optimal taxation and regulation in behavioral economics -- Libertarian paternalism in theory -- Libertarian paternalism in practice | |
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| 653 | 0 | |a Théorie des choix rationnels | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Théorie des choix rationnels / Modèles mathématiques | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Optimisation mathématique | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Mathematical optimization | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Rational choice theory | |
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| adam_text | Contents Acknowledgments xi 1 Introduction 2 What Is Rationality and What Is the Evidence for It? 23 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 A Simple Taxonomy of Situations 29 2.3 The Bayesian Rationality Approach 37 2.4 Rationality under Certainty 38 2.5 Rationality under Risk and Uncertainty 43 2.6 Rationality in Choices Made over Time 47 2.7 Rationality in Strategic Interaction 52 2.8 What Rationality Is Not 54 2.8.1 Rationality Does Not Imply Self-Regarding Preferences 54 2.8.2 Rationality Does Not Imply Absence of Emotions in Decision-Making 55 2.8.3 Rationality Does Require Perfect Attention and Unlimited Computing Power 56 2.9 Evidence on Consistent Preferences 56 2.10 Evidence on Limited Attention 59 2.11 Evidence on Overconfidence 61 2.12 Evidence on Rationality in Risk and Uncertainty 64 2.12.1 Nonlinear Probability Weighting 64 2.12.2 Reference Dependence 68 2.12.3 More Violations 69 2.13 Evidence on Rationality in Time Discounting 69 2.14 Evidence on Rationality in Strategic Interaction 76 1
vi Contents 2,15 Do Humans Follow the Rules of Mathematical Statistics? 79 2.15.1 Biases in Producing a Full Sampling Distribution 80 2.15.2 Do People Use Bayes’Law? 84 2.15.3 Conservatism 88 2.15.4 A Modification of Bayes’ Law 89 2.16 Appendix: A Primer on Decision Theory 92 2.16.1 Expected Utility Theory 93 2.16.2 Probability Weighting Function 96 2.16.3 Rank Dependent Utility 99 2.16.4 Prospect Theory 101 3 The Case for Bounded Rationality 109 3.1 Introduction 109 3.2 How Reasonable Is the Assumption of Mathematical Optimization? 114 3.2.1 A Basic Problem in Dynamic Optimization 115 3.2.2 Emotions and Optimization in Microfinance Contracts 119 3.2.3 Bubbles in Financial Markets 126 3.2.4 Will Non-Optimizing Individuals Simply Perish? 127 3.2.5 Optimization or Heuristics? An Application from Microfinance Contracts 131 3.2.6 Optimization or Heuristics? An Application to Tax Evasion 134 3.2.7 Assessing a Three-Way Leaders Debate 138 3.3 Strategic Interaction 143 3.4 The Role of Social Norms 149 3.5 On Methodology in Economics 156 3.6 Preferences and Beliefs: The Role of History, Culture, and Institutions 161 3.6.1 Effect of Preferences on Institutions 162 3.6.2 Effect of Institutions on Preferences 163 3.7 The Macroeconomy as a Complex, Adaptive System 165 4 Behavioral Models of Heuristics-Based Choice 169 4.1 Risk as Feelings 177 4.2 Attribute-Based Models in Time Discounting 180 4.2.1 Vague Time Preferences Model 181
Contents The Similarity Relation and Time Preference 183 Trade-off Attribute Model of Intertemporal Choice 184 Heuristics and Optimization I: Heuristics for Temporal Choices and Delay-Discounting Models 185 Heuristics and Optimization II: Mental Accounting and Prospect Theory 188 Aspiration Adaptation Theory 190 4.5.1 A Cooperation Problem 192 4.5.2 A Coordination Problem 195 Evidential Reasoning 198 Kantian Rationality 203 Winner’s Curse in Financial Markets 207 Complexity and Bounded Rationality: Thinking about Macroeconomics 211 4.9.1 Inductive Reasoning, Adaptive Rules, and Emergent Phenomena 215 4.9.2 Neighborhood Segregation as an Emergent Phenomenon 216 4.9.3 Chaos: Extreme Dependence on Initial Conditions 219 4.9.4 Agent-Based Models 221 Evolutionary Game Theory and Stochastic Social Dynamics 226 4.10.1 Evolutionary Game Theory 226 4.10.2 Stochastic Social Dynamics 231 Narratives and Contagion 234 Mental Models 242 Choice Bracketing 245 4.13.1 Equity-Premium Puzzle 247 4.13.2 Risk Aggregation 249 4.13.3 Why Do People Engage in Narrow Choice Bracketing? 251 Attitudes toward Very Low Probability Events 251 4.14.1 Original Prospect Theory 253 4.14.2 The Evidence on Behavior under Low Probability Events 255 4.14.3 So What Is the Way Forward? 258 Do People Take Account of Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs? 259 4.2.2 4.2.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 vii
viii Contents 5 Kahneman and Tversky’s Research Program on Heuristics and Biases 265 5.1 Introduction 265 5.2 The Representative Heuristic 270 5.2.1 The Gambler’s Fallacy 273 5.2.2 The Hot Hand Fallacy 274 5.3 Anchoring 275 5.4 Hindsight Bias 278 5.5 The Availability Heuristic 281 5.6 The Conjunction Fallacy 282 5.7 Regression to the Mean 284 5.8 Necessary and Sufficient Conditions 286 5.9 Confirmation Bias 286 5.10 The Affect Heuristic 288 5.11 Objections to the HBP 289 5.11.1 Some Preliminaries 289 5.11.2 Ecological Rationality 291 5.11.3 One-Event Probabilities, Context, and Errors 292 5.11.4 “We Cannot Be That Dumb” Critique 293 5.11.5 Frequency versus Probability Format and the HBP 294 5.11.6 Empirical Counterparts to the Heuristics 297 5.11.7 How Can Heuristics Explain Events A and Not A? 298 5.11.8 The Criticism of Appropriate Statistical Norms 300 5.11.9 Systems 1 and 2 302 5.12 Experts and the HBP Heuristics 303 6 The Fast and Frugal Heuristics Research Program 305 6.1 Introduction 305 6.2 The FFP 309 6.3 A Critique of the FFP 316 6.3.1 What Is the Benchmark for Comparison? 316 6.3.2 Empirical Testing of Heuristics in the FFP 317 6.3.3 Training People in Using Statistics 321 6.3.4 Does the FFP Tell Us Which Heuristic to Use? 323 6.4 On Mathematical Optimization and As-If Theories 325 6.5 On Distinct Domains of Choices in the HBP and FFP 327
Contents 6.6 7 The Less Is More Effect 333 6.6.1 A Critique of the Bias-Variance Trade-off 6.6.2 Implications of the Less Is More Effect for the HBP 339 Philosophical Foundations 341 7.1 Introduction 341 7.2 Choices and Welfare 343 7.3 Direct and Indirect Judgments 346 7.4 Practice and Theory 351 7.5 The Pervasiveness of Indirect Judgments 7.6 Defining Direct Judgments 354 7.7 Welfare 356 7.8 Paths Forward 358 ix 337 353 8 Optimal Taxation and Regulation in Behavioral Economics 361 8.1 Introduction 361 8.2 An Introduction to Multiple Selves 363 8.3 Multiple Selves, Internalities, and Public Policy 366 8.4 Limited Attention and Deadweight Loss from Taxation 374 8.5 Tax Incidence under Limited Attention 380 8.6 Internalities and Tax Efficiency: An Application to Sugar Taxes 382 8.7 Present Biased Preferences and Procrastination: More Applications 385 8.7.1 Procrastination: Fixing Ideas 386 8.7.2 Job Search and Hard Paternalism 389 8.7.3 Deadlines; Buying Single Cigarette Packs 390 8.7.4 Inducing Farmers to Buy Fertilizers 391 8.8 Behavioral Industrial Organization, Bounded Rationality, and Policy 392 9 Libertarian Paternalism in Theory 403 9.1 Introduction 403 9.2 Mistakes and Welfare 405 9.3 Libertarian Paternalism 407 9.4 Government Error 415 9.5 Remedies 419 10 Libertarian Paternalism in Practice 423 10.1 Behavioral Public Policy around the World 423
x Contents 10.2 FEAST 426 10.3 Institutionalizing Behavioral Insights: Two Approaches 10.4 Examples of Behavioral Public Policies 429 10.4.1 Default Rules 429 10.4.2 Policies on Savings 431 10.4.3 School Meals 432 10.4.4 Finance 432 10.4.5 Health Care 433 10.4.6 Payroll Statements 434 10.5 Disclosure 434 10.5.1 Nutrition 435 10.5.2 Finance 436 10.5.3 Health Care 437 10.5.4 Fuel Economy 437 10.5.5 Disclosure and Competition 438 10.6 Structuring Choices 440 10.7 Salience 440 11 Epilogue Notes 445 References 455 Index 503 443 428
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| adam_txt |
Contents Acknowledgments xi 1 Introduction 2 What Is Rationality and What Is the Evidence for It? 23 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 A Simple Taxonomy of Situations ' 29 2.3 The Bayesian Rationality Approach 37 2.4 Rationality under Certainty 38 2.5 Rationality under Risk and Uncertainty 43 2.6 Rationality in Choices Made over Time 47 2.7 Rationality in Strategic Interaction 52 2.8 What Rationality Is Not 54 2.8.1 Rationality Does Not Imply Self-Regarding Preferences 54 2.8.2 Rationality Does Not Imply Absence of Emotions in Decision-Making 55 2.8.3 Rationality Does Require Perfect Attention and Unlimited Computing Power 56 2.9 Evidence on Consistent Preferences 56 2.10 Evidence on Limited Attention 59 2.11 Evidence on Overconfidence 61 2.12 Evidence on Rationality in Risk and Uncertainty 64 2.12.1 Nonlinear Probability Weighting 64 2.12.2 Reference Dependence 68 2.12.3 More Violations 69 2.13 Evidence on Rationality in Time Discounting 69 2.14 Evidence on Rationality in Strategic Interaction 76 1
vi Contents 2,15 Do Humans Follow the Rules of Mathematical Statistics? 79 2.15.1 Biases in Producing a Full Sampling Distribution 80 2.15.2 Do People Use Bayes’Law? 84 2.15.3 Conservatism 88 2.15.4 A Modification of Bayes’ Law 89 2.16 Appendix: A Primer on Decision Theory 92 2.16.1 Expected Utility Theory 93 2.16.2 Probability Weighting Function 96 2.16.3 Rank Dependent Utility 99 2.16.4 Prospect Theory 101 3 The Case for Bounded Rationality 109 3.1 Introduction 109 3.2 How Reasonable Is the Assumption of Mathematical Optimization? 114 3.2.1 A Basic Problem in Dynamic Optimization 115 3.2.2 Emotions and Optimization in Microfinance Contracts 119 3.2.3 Bubbles in Financial Markets 126 3.2.4 Will Non-Optimizing Individuals Simply Perish? 127 3.2.5 Optimization or Heuristics? An Application from Microfinance Contracts 131 3.2.6 Optimization or Heuristics? An Application to Tax Evasion 134 3.2.7 Assessing a Three-Way Leaders Debate 138 3.3 Strategic Interaction 143 3.4 The Role of Social Norms 149 3.5 On Methodology in Economics 156 3.6 Preferences and Beliefs: The Role of History, Culture, and Institutions 161 3.6.1 Effect of Preferences on Institutions 162 3.6.2 Effect of Institutions on Preferences 163 3.7 The Macroeconomy as a Complex, Adaptive System 165 4 Behavioral Models of Heuristics-Based Choice 169 4.1 Risk as Feelings 177 4.2 Attribute-Based Models in Time Discounting 180 4.2.1 Vague Time Preferences Model 181
Contents The Similarity Relation and Time Preference 183 Trade-off Attribute Model of Intertemporal Choice 184 Heuristics and Optimization I: Heuristics for Temporal Choices and Delay-Discounting Models 185 Heuristics and Optimization II: Mental Accounting and Prospect Theory 188 Aspiration Adaptation Theory 190 4.5.1 A Cooperation Problem 192 4.5.2 A Coordination Problem 195 Evidential Reasoning 198 Kantian Rationality 203 Winner’s Curse in Financial Markets 207 Complexity and Bounded Rationality: Thinking about Macroeconomics 211 4.9.1 Inductive Reasoning, Adaptive Rules, and Emergent Phenomena 215 4.9.2 Neighborhood Segregation as an Emergent Phenomenon 216 4.9.3 Chaos: Extreme Dependence on Initial Conditions 219 4.9.4 Agent-Based Models 221 Evolutionary Game Theory and Stochastic Social Dynamics 226 4.10.1 Evolutionary Game Theory 226 4.10.2 Stochastic Social Dynamics 231 Narratives and Contagion 234 Mental Models 242 Choice Bracketing 245 4.13.1 Equity-Premium Puzzle 247 4.13.2 Risk Aggregation 249 4.13.3 Why Do People Engage in Narrow Choice Bracketing? 251 Attitudes toward Very Low Probability Events 251 4.14.1 Original Prospect Theory 253 4.14.2 The Evidence on Behavior under Low Probability Events 255 4.14.3 So What Is the Way Forward? 258 Do People Take Account of Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs? 259 4.2.2 4.2.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 vii
viii Contents 5 Kahneman and Tversky’s Research Program on Heuristics and Biases 265 5.1 Introduction 265 5.2 The Representative Heuristic 270 5.2.1 The Gambler’s Fallacy 273 5.2.2 The Hot Hand Fallacy 274 5.3 Anchoring 275 5.4 Hindsight Bias 278 5.5 The Availability Heuristic 281 5.6 The Conjunction Fallacy 282 5.7 Regression to the Mean 284 5.8 Necessary and Sufficient Conditions 286 5.9 Confirmation Bias 286 5.10 The Affect Heuristic 288 5.11 Objections to the HBP 289 5.11.1 Some Preliminaries 289 5.11.2 Ecological Rationality 291 5.11.3 One-Event Probabilities, Context, and Errors 292 5.11.4 “We Cannot Be That Dumb” Critique 293 5.11.5 Frequency versus Probability Format and the HBP 294 5.11.6 Empirical Counterparts to the Heuristics 297 5.11.7 How Can Heuristics Explain Events A and Not A? 298 5.11.8 The Criticism of Appropriate Statistical Norms 300 5.11.9 Systems 1 and 2 302 5.12 Experts and the HBP Heuristics 303 6 The Fast and Frugal Heuristics Research Program 305 6.1 Introduction 305 6.2 The FFP 309 6.3 A Critique of the FFP 316 6.3.1 What Is the Benchmark for Comparison? 316 6.3.2 Empirical Testing of Heuristics in the FFP 317 6.3.3 Training People in Using Statistics 321 6.3.4 Does the FFP Tell Us Which Heuristic to Use? 323 6.4 On Mathematical Optimization and As-If Theories 325 6.5 On Distinct Domains of Choices in the HBP and FFP 327
Contents 6.6 7 The Less Is More Effect 333 6.6.1 A Critique of the Bias-Variance Trade-off 6.6.2 Implications of the Less Is More Effect for the HBP 339 Philosophical Foundations 341 7.1 Introduction 341 7.2 Choices and Welfare 343 7.3 Direct and Indirect Judgments 346 7.4 Practice and Theory 351 7.5 The Pervasiveness of Indirect Judgments 7.6 Defining Direct Judgments 354 7.7 Welfare 356 7.8 Paths Forward 358 ix 337 353 8 Optimal Taxation and Regulation in Behavioral Economics 361 8.1 Introduction 361 8.2 An Introduction to Multiple Selves 363 8.3 Multiple Selves, Internalities, and Public Policy 366 8.4 Limited Attention and Deadweight Loss from Taxation 374 8.5 Tax Incidence under Limited Attention 380 8.6 Internalities and Tax Efficiency: An Application to Sugar Taxes 382 8.7 Present Biased Preferences and Procrastination: More Applications 385 8.7.1 Procrastination: Fixing Ideas 386 8.7.2 Job Search and Hard Paternalism 389 8.7.3 Deadlines; Buying Single Cigarette Packs 390 8.7.4 Inducing Farmers to Buy Fertilizers 391 8.8 Behavioral Industrial Organization, Bounded Rationality, and Policy 392 9 Libertarian Paternalism in Theory 403 9.1 Introduction 403 9.2 Mistakes and Welfare 405 9.3 Libertarian Paternalism 407 9.4 Government Error 415 9.5 Remedies 419 10 Libertarian Paternalism in Practice 423 10.1 Behavioral Public Policy around the World 423
x Contents 10.2 FEAST 426 10.3 Institutionalizing Behavioral Insights: Two Approaches 10.4 Examples of Behavioral Public Policies 429 10.4.1 Default Rules 429 10.4.2 Policies on Savings 431 10.4.3 School Meals 432 10.4.4 Finance 432 10.4.5 Health Care 433 10.4.6 Payroll Statements 434 10.5 Disclosure 434 10.5.1 Nutrition 435 10.5.2 Finance 436 10.5.3 Health Care 437 10.5.4 Fuel Economy 437 10.5.5 Disclosure and Competition 438 10.6 Structuring Choices 440 10.7 Salience 440 11 Epilogue Notes 445 References 455 Index 503 443 428 |
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| id | DE-604.BV048319105 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T20:11:31Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:35:09Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780262543705 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Dhami, Sanjit S. Verfasser (DE-588)171693523 aut Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein Cambridge, Massachusetts ; London, England The MIT Press [2022] 2022 xii, 533 Seiten Diagramme 23 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier What is rationality and what is the evidence for it? -- The case for bounded rationality -- Behavioral models of heuristics-based choice -- Kahneman and Tversky's research program on heuristics and biases (HBP) -- The fast and frugal heuristics research program (FFP) -- Philosophical foundations -- Optimal taxation and regulation in behavioral economics -- Libertarian paternalism in theory -- Libertarian paternalism in practice "An accessible and self-contained treatment of the current state of thinking about rationality in economics and other social sciences"-- Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 gnd rswk-swf Rational choice theory Rational choice theory / Mathematical models Mathematical optimization Social sciences / Methodology Théorie des choix rationnels Théorie des choix rationnels / Modèles mathématiques Optimisation mathématique Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 s DE-604 Sunstein, Cass R. 1954- Sonstige (DE-588)131457691 oth Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033698502&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Dhami, Sanjit S. Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy What is rationality and what is the evidence for it? -- The case for bounded rationality -- Behavioral models of heuristics-based choice -- Kahneman and Tversky's research program on heuristics and biases (HBP) -- The fast and frugal heuristics research program (FFP) -- Philosophical foundations -- Optimal taxation and regulation in behavioral economics -- Libertarian paternalism in theory -- Libertarian paternalism in practice Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4403080-0 |
| title | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy |
| title_auth | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy |
| title_exact_search | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy |
| title_full | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein |
| title_fullStr | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bounded rationality heuristics, judgment and public policy Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein |
| title_short | Bounded rationality |
| title_sort | bounded rationality heuristics judgment and public policy |
| title_sub | heuristics, judgment and public policy |
| topic | Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Eingeschränkte Rationalität |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033698502&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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