Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa
In response to rising inequality following decades of trade liberalization, many countries are adopting trade restrictions. Can temporary trade restrictions have long-lasting effects on the spatial distribution of employment and resource allocation? To analyze this, this paper exploits the civil war...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2019
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| Schriftenreihe: | World Bank E-Library Archive
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | In response to rising inequality following decades of trade liberalization, many countries are adopting trade restrictions. Can temporary trade restrictions have long-lasting effects on the spatial distribution of employment and resource allocation? To analyze this, this paper exploits the civil war in Cote d'Ivoire (2002-07), which disrupted access to the world market for two neighboring landlocked countries: Mali and Burkina Faso. The Ivorian war forced rerouting of trade from the Abidjan route to non-Abidjan routes. This paper builds a general equilibrium model where a subsistence-based autarkic hinterland coexists with an integrated segment, and there are two alternative routes to international markets. A trade shock to one route affects resource allocation in both routes by shifting the spatial margins of market integration and sectoral specialization. The effects are heterogeneous, depending on the pre-war market access of a location. The empirical analysis takes advantage of panel data and estimates the effects on structural change in employment on the non-Abidjan route using a triple difference design with location fixed effects. The areas that remain in autarkic equilibrium before and after the trade shock provide plausible estimates of the changes arising from long-term factors unrelated to the trade shock. The estimates show that the temporary trade shock created divergence between the Abidjan and non-Abidjan routes, with accelerated structural change in favor of manufacturing and services employment in the non-Abidjan route. This paper finds evidence of persistence in the effects through higher sunk investment in built-up density, agglomeration through concentration of skilled labor and greater public investment in complementary inputs such as electricity infrastructure (measured by nightlights density) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (52 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1596/1813-9450-8962 |
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| 520 | |a In response to rising inequality following decades of trade liberalization, many countries are adopting trade restrictions. Can temporary trade restrictions have long-lasting effects on the spatial distribution of employment and resource allocation? To analyze this, this paper exploits the civil war in Cote d'Ivoire (2002-07), which disrupted access to the world market for two neighboring landlocked countries: Mali and Burkina Faso. The Ivorian war forced rerouting of trade from the Abidjan route to non-Abidjan routes. This paper builds a general equilibrium model where a subsistence-based autarkic hinterland coexists with an integrated segment, and there are two alternative routes to international markets. A trade shock to one route affects resource allocation in both routes by shifting the spatial margins of market integration and sectoral specialization. The effects are heterogeneous, depending on the pre-war market access of a location. The empirical analysis takes advantage of panel data and estimates the effects on structural change in employment on the non-Abidjan route using a triple difference design with location fixed effects. The areas that remain in autarkic equilibrium before and after the trade shock provide plausible estimates of the changes arising from long-term factors unrelated to the trade shock. The estimates show that the temporary trade shock created divergence between the Abidjan and non-Abidjan routes, with accelerated structural change in favor of manufacturing and services employment in the non-Abidjan route. This paper finds evidence of persistence in the effects through higher sunk investment in built-up density, agglomeration through concentration of skilled labor and greater public investment in complementary inputs such as electricity infrastructure (measured by nightlights density) | ||
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| spellingShingle | Emran, M. Shahe Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa |
| title | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa |
| title_auth | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa |
| title_exact_search | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa |
| title_full | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa M. Shahe Emran |
| title_fullStr | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa M. Shahe Emran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa M. Shahe Emran |
| title_short | Temporary Trade Shocks, Spatial Reallocation, and Persistence in Developing Countries |
| title_sort | temporary trade shocks spatial reallocation and persistence in developing countries evidence from a natural experiment in west africa |
| title_sub | Evidence from a Natural Experiment in West Africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8962 |
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