Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach
This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sa...
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| Format: | Electronic Book Chapter |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-384 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-91 DE-573 DE-19 Volltext |
| Summary: | This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 28cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |
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| spelling | Altug, Sumru Verfasser aut Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru Altug and Erhan Uluceviz Paris OECD Publishing 2013 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 28cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. Keywords: Real activity, inflation, leading indicators, out-of-sample forecasting, combination forecasts, inflation targeting, Turkey. JEL classification: E1, E32, E37, E58, F43, O52 Economics Turkey Uluceviz, Erhan ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Altug, Sumru Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Economics Turkey |
| title | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_auth | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_exact_search | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| title_full | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru Altug and Erhan Uluceviz |
| title_fullStr | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru Altug and Erhan Uluceviz |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach Sumru Altug and Erhan Uluceviz |
| title_short | Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010 |
| title_sort | identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for turkey 1988 2010 a pseudo out of sample forecasting approach |
| title_sub | A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach |
| topic | Economics Turkey |
| topic_facet | Economics Turkey |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5k4221j86n8v |
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