Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth: Evidence for emerging economies
The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However,...
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| Format: | Electronic Book Chapter |
| Language: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2014
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| Online Access: | DE-384 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-91 DE-573 DE-19 Volltext |
| Summary: | The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study - finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (14 Seiten) 21 x 28cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc |
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| 520 | |a The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study - finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis | ||
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| spelling | Blundell-Wignall, Adrian Verfasser aut Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies Adrian Blundell-Wignall and Caroline Roulet Paris OECD Publishing 2014 1 Online-Ressource (14 Seiten) 21 x 28cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier The results of an IMF study on controls on capital inflows in emerging economies, using a probit regression approach, are first replicated and tested for stability. The IMF results, downplayed by the authors, have been used by others to suggest controls can be helpful in a crisis situation. However, the stability findings suggest the results are not sufficiently robust to make strong claims in this regard. The same 37 countries and the IMF capital control measures are then used in a panel regression study to examine the impact of capital inflows on annual real GDP growth around the Global Financial Crisis. The results between the pre-crisis and the crisis periods are inconsistent with the IMF study - finding that capital restrictions on inflows (particularly debt liabilities) are most useful in good times when inflows to emerging markets are strong and upward pressure on managed exchange rates and reserves accumulation is greatest. However, lower controls on bonds and on FDI inflows seem to be associated with better growth outcomes during the crisis period studied. These findings are more consistent with studies that see capital controls as part of exchange rate targeting policies and concerns about excess reserves accumulation. JEL Classification: C23, C25, F21, F43, G01 Keywords: Capital controls, economic growth, emerging economies, financial crisis Finance and Investment Roulet, Caroline ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Blundell-Wignall, Adrian Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies Finance and Investment |
| title | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies |
| title_auth | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies |
| title_exact_search | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies |
| title_full | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies Adrian Blundell-Wignall and Caroline Roulet |
| title_fullStr | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies Adrian Blundell-Wignall and Caroline Roulet |
| title_full_unstemmed | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth Evidence for emerging economies Adrian Blundell-Wignall and Caroline Roulet |
| title_short | Capital controls on inflows, the global financial crisis and economic growth |
| title_sort | capital controls on inflows the global financial crisis and economic growth evidence for emerging economies |
| title_sub | Evidence for emerging economies |
| topic | Finance and Investment |
| topic_facet | Finance and Investment |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/fmt-2013-5jzb2rhkgthc |
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