Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation:
This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area infl...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Electronic Book Chapter |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2004
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-384 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-91 DE-573 DE-19 Volltext |
| Summary: | This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area inflation expectations from the qualitative data from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - the information contained in a broad set of macroeconomic variables. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors... |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (29 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art3-en |
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| spelling | Forsells, Magnus Verfasser aut Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny Paris OECD Publishing 2004 1 Online-Ressource (29 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier This paper uses survey data in order to analyse and assess the empirical properties of consumers' inflation expectations in the euro area and explores their role in explaining the observed dynamics of inflation. The probability approach is used to derive quantitative estimates of euro area inflation expectations from the qualitative data from the European Commission's Consumer Survey. The paper subsequently analyses the empirical properties of the estimated inflation expectations by considering the extent to which they fulfil some of the necessary conditions for rationality. The results suggest an intermediate form of rationality. In particular, the surveyed expectations are an unbiased predictor of future price developments and they incorporate - though not always completely - the information contained in a broad set of macroeconomic variables. In addition, although persistent deviations between consumers' expectations and the rational outcome have occurred, consumers are shown to rationally adjust their expectations in order to eventually "weed out" any systematic expectational errors... Economics Kenny, Geoff ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art3-en Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Forsells, Magnus Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Economics |
| title | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_auth | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_exact_search | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_full | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny |
| title_fullStr | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny |
| title_full_unstemmed | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny |
| title_short | Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation |
| title_sort | survey expectations rationality and the dynamics of euro area inflation |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art3-en |
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