Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model:

We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from the dynamic factor model of Doz et al. (2006), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and forecasting with cross-equation accounting identities. A pseudo r...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Angelini, Elena (Author)
Other Authors: Banbura, Marta (Contributor), Rünstler, Gerhard (Contributor)
Format: Electronic Book Chapter
Language:English
Published: Paris OECD Publishing 2010
Subjects:
Online Access:DE-384
DE-473
DE-824
DE-29
DE-739
DE-355
DE-20
DE-1028
DE-1049
DE-521
DE-861
DE-898
DE-92
DE-91
DE-573
DE-19
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Summary:We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from the dynamic factor model of Doz et al. (2006), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and forecasting with cross-equation accounting identities. A pseudo real-time forecasting exercise indicates that the model outperforms various benchmarks, such as quarterly time-series models and bridge equations, in forecasting growth in quarterly GDP and its components
Physical Description:1 Online-Ressource (22 Seiten)
DOI:10.1787/jbcma-2010-5kmmsxgf2qbs

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